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> June 1-? MidAtl/NE Stationary Front & Continued Flood Risk
phillyfan
post Jun 18 2018, 06:05 PM
Post #181




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Well.....

QUOTE
Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
PAC011-077-190000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0036.180618T2258Z-180619T0000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
658 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Berks County in eastern Pennsylvania...
Southern Lehigh County in eastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 800 PM EDT.

* At 658 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Wanamakers to near Myerstown, moving east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is
possible.

* Locations impacted include...
Allentown, Reading, Emmaus, Wyomissing, Birdsboro, Kutztown,
Hamburg, Fleetwood, Sinking Spring, Laureldale, Womelsdorf,
Wernersville, Newmanstown, Topton, Leesport, Shoemakersville,
Bally, Bernville, Bechtelsville and Lyons.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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phillyfan
post Jun 18 2018, 06:39 PM
Post #182




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Pouring hard, knocking the heat down some.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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KENNYP2339
post Jun 18 2018, 06:46 PM
Post #183




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This is rather frustrating, I saw a solid line of storms in NE PA, they hit the Delaware river basin and broke apart only to reform a segmented line to the south, I clap down my arm with my one hand and say "same as it ever was" I need rain up here, my poor grass is burnt, my flowers are dying, the upper half of my forsythia bushes are wilting, its been a solid 3 weeks since we have received anything substantial in the rain department >.10
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phillyfan
post Jun 18 2018, 07:00 PM
Post #184




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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Jun 18 2018, 07:46 PM) *
This is rather frustrating, I saw a solid line of storms in NE PA, they hit the Delaware river basin and broke apart only to reform a segmented line to the south, I clap down my arm with my one hand and say "same as it ever was" I need rain up here, my poor grass is burnt, my flowers are dying, the upper half of my forsythia bushes are wilting, its been a solid 3 weeks since we have received anything substantial in the rain department >.10

There is a 2nd batch that may come late tonight. That's up at the PA/NY border now.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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stretchct
post Jun 18 2018, 07:40 PM
Post #185




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Member No.: 16,470





Busy here with the thunder. Been ongoing for an hour and some are still rolling in. Lightning is fading as it nears the ocean, per usual. Some heavy rain, but only .12". Not much wind, thankfully. Heat was a bust today with temps only reaching 88. Heat index made it to 98 though. They half day'd school for the "heat" - what a joke.

Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Miller A
post Jun 19 2018, 10:18 AM
Post #186




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Member No.: 16,359





QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Jun 18 2018, 07:46 PM) *
This is rather frustrating..., its been a solid 3 weeks since we have received anything substantial in the rain department >.10



QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jun 18 2018, 08:00 PM) *
There is a 2nd batch that may come late tonight. That's up at the PA/NY border now.


Barely.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
TOTAL 2017-18: 52.35"
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"

TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"


Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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phillyfan
post Jun 19 2018, 11:01 AM
Post #187




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Member No.: 12,448





QUOTE(Miller A @ Jun 19 2018, 11:18 AM) *
Barely.

That 2nd batch had more bark on radar then bite sad.gif


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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Miller A
post Jun 19 2018, 04:51 PM
Post #188




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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jun 19 2018, 12:01 PM) *
That 2nd batch had more bark on radar then bite sad.gif


I never heard it. i was up watching the Mets game (shhh! dont tell anyone) so I would think I would have heard something. I thought I heard the wind around that time, but it may have just been the Mets blowing.


--------------------
TOTAL 2017-18: 52.35"
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"

TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"


Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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KENNYP2339
post Jun 20 2018, 07:00 AM
Post #189




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Member No.: 23,320





A disturbance riding along the stalled front should come through the area tonight, we can use 1/2" of rain, the soil up here is now dry until 4" depth, grass is starting to burn over, small tree's are wilting.
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Undertakerson
post Jun 20 2018, 03:00 PM
Post #190




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azardous Weather Outlook
QUOTE
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1054 AM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

PAZ024>028-056-057-059-063>066-211500-
Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
1054 AM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Localized flash flooding is possible Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. Small streams, low water crossings, and poor
drainage and urban areas will be the most vulnerable to flooding. Be
aware of flood prone areas.
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Miller A
post Jun 20 2018, 04:11 PM
Post #191




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Weakening as it tries to cross the Delaware River into NJ

This post has been edited by Miller A: Jun 20 2018, 04:12 PM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image
 


--------------------
TOTAL 2017-18: 52.35"
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"

TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"


Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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phillyfan
post Jun 20 2018, 06:24 PM
Post #192




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From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 20 2018, 04:00 PM) *
azardous Weather Outlook

Not looking like much more then sprinkles at this point out here. Looking like mason dixon line on south for the rains tonight, I guess.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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phillyfan
post Jun 20 2018, 10:27 PM
Post #193




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Mount Holly forecast discussion from 9pm, still talking about rain coming overnight. So we shall see what happens.
QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
914 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A developing low pressure system and its associated fronts will
traverse the region tonight. Canadian high pressure moves into
the northeast late Thursday into Friday while a stalled front
remains just to the south. Low pressure moving from the eastern
Great Lakes into northern New England will lift a warm through
the region on Saturday, followed by a cold frontal passage late
Sunday. A sprawling area of Canadian high pressure builds into
the area through the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Showers were scattered across eastern Pennsylvania,
northeastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey around 9:00 PM.
The precipitation is forecast to become more organized
overnight.

Diffuse low pressure was located in the upper Ohio River Valley
early this evening. The feature is expected to become better
developed overnight with its center reaching southeastern
Pennsylvania around 2:00 AM. The low is anticipated to pass off
the New Jersey coast before daybreak.

The low should be traveling along a weak surface boundary that
extended eastward across southeastern Pennsylvania and up into
the New York City area this evening. As the low approaches, the
boundary is expected to provide a focus for the development of
additional showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values
in the 2.00 to 2.25 range indicate that there will be abundant
moisture available. As a result, we continue to expected some
bands of heavy rain. While the model guidance has been varying
with the placement of the axis of heavy rain, it seems as though
the general average or consensus puts it across southeastern
Pennsylvania and central New Jersey. Although, locally heavy
showers and thunderstorms also seem likely on the upper Delmarva
and in southern New Jersey.

The expected rainfall amounts suggest some localized flooding
of roadways and areas of poor drainage overnight. It seems as
though we will be able to handle the situation mainly with Flood
Advisory products.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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Undertakerson
post Yesterday, 04:23 PM
Post #194




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Couple sprinkles out near Pgh too ohmy.gif

https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2018/06/20/...n-pennsylvania/
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phillyfan
post Yesterday, 06:31 PM
Post #195




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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 21 2018, 05:23 PM) *

Yup, they got it good there. Basically a busted forecast on this side of the state last night though. rolleyes.gif


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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Solstice
post Today, 11:54 AM
Post #196




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Sunset GIF... 6/20


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Today, 04:05 PM
Post #197




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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jun 22 2018, 12:54 PM) *
Sunset GIF... 6/20


Nice! Love 1 and 5 min imagery makes it so smooth. Currently have a boundary across southern VA that we have storms popping up on and riding that boundary. Can see it really nice on vis satellite. Gotta watch for later on with some convection picking up further south with large difluent flow aloft aiding in the lift and a meager jet but a dry punch aiding in convection.

More so a heavy rain threat but areas right near that boundary as it tries to push north will be a focus for concern. Tomorrow is a little iffy where it sets up just yet but keep an eye to the skies tomorrow as areas probably south of PA/MD border may experience some sun but quickly pop TCU and CB and run the risk of rotating cells.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Undertakerson
post Today, 05:45 PM
Post #198




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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jun 22 2018, 12:54 PM) *
Sunset GIF... 6/20

Nice job of capturing the final visible images of Spring 2018. smile.gif

At the end of the vis portion, look at that explosion in SW PA which lead to the localized flooding I posted about. That is eye popping WOW
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STEVE392
post Today, 06:13 PM
Post #199




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Was really hoping for some good thunderstorms today in NENJ. While it was kinda cool it still had that feeling in the air of stickyness and when the breeze stopped and sun popped out, it warmed up quick. But its been nothing but overcast since around 3pm and rain looks like its dying out as it marches northward.
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phillyfan
post Today, 06:43 PM
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QUOTE(STEVE392 @ Jun 22 2018, 07:13 PM) *
Was really hoping for some good thunderstorms today in NENJ. While it was kinda cool it still had that feeling in the air of stickyness and when the breeze stopped and sun popped out, it warmed up quick. But its been nothing but overcast since around 3pm and rain looks like its dying out as it marches northward.

Nothing but sprinkles here and there down here. Could use a good soaking.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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