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> Valentines Day MidAtlantic/Northeast Winter Storm Feb 13-14
shaulov4
post Feb 4 2014, 04:36 PM
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Thought I should mention this it's been pretty consistent on the models
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stilko4
post Feb 4 2014, 04:39 PM
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way way way to early for this


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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jb1979
post Feb 4 2014, 05:01 PM
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QUOTE(stilko4 @ Feb 4 2014, 04:39 PM) *
way way way to early for this



it's never too early to responsibly talk about a potential. That's why we're here.

12Z GFS:
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image
 


--------------------
2016 Snow Events:
1/22-23: 27 inches
2/5: .5 inches
2/9: 3 inches
2/11: 1 inch
2/15: 1 inch
______________________________
Winter 2016 - 32.5 inches
Winter 2015 - 41 inches
Winter 2014 - 66.3 inches (2nd Highest)
Winter 2013 - 17.7 inches
Winter 2012 - 11.3 inches
Winter 2011 - 47.3 inches
Winter 2010 - 83.2 inches (Record)
Average Annual Snowfall (Est.) 25 inches
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Eddie227
post Feb 4 2014, 07:03 PM
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QUOTE(stilko4 @ Feb 4 2014, 04:39 PM) *
way way way to early for this


how is 9 days away too far out when threads get started 2 weeks out?


I really hope we get Spring weather soon smile.gif
would be ironic to get another winter storm for Valentines Day
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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Feb 4 2014, 08:48 PM
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QUOTE(stilko4 @ Feb 4 2014, 04:39 PM) *
way way way to early for this
not too early, only 9 days, ive seen threads 2 weeks in advance on here this is only a little over a week smile.gif

This post has been edited by BLIZZARD_OF_79: Feb 4 2014, 08:52 PM


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

Winter 2017-18 snow totals imby
Dec 9th....3.0 inches
Dec 13th...0.25 inches
Dec 15th...1.0 inches
Dec 30th..0.50 inches
Jan 3rd-4th...1.0 inches
Jan 16-17th...1.25 inches
----------------------------------------------

Total snowfall.....7.00 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
16-17....2.75 inches
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NYCSuburbs
post Feb 4 2014, 09:14 PM
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Whatever happens here hopefully turns out better than the 2/14/13 storm, especially compared with what it was forecast to produce

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d-_-b
post Feb 4 2014, 11:34 PM
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Out in fantasy land but boy does the GFS look nice for everyone from NC to ME laugh.gif

Don't get attached, it will change.


--------------------
2017-18: 9.2"
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jrdrnt
post Feb 5 2014, 07:53 AM
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Still far away but the 17th is a better setup
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Twim19
post Feb 5 2014, 08:41 AM
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QUOTE(jrdrnt @ Feb 5 2014, 07:53 AM) *
Still far away but the 17th is a better setup


Ever notice how an event four or five days after the one a thread is talking about is always a better setup? In the 8-10th thread, folks kept talking about how the 14th was a better setup.

I'm not faulting you or making fun. . .just find it funny that the models always seem about ten days away from giving us our megabomb. Or our epic cold snap. Or our next blowtorch. wink.gif
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d-_-b
post Feb 5 2014, 11:36 AM
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Still there on the 12z GFS


--------------------
2017-18: 9.2"
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paletitsnow63
post Feb 5 2014, 12:38 PM
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QUOTE(Twim19 @ Feb 5 2014, 08:41 AM) *
Ever notice how an event four or five days after the one a thread is talking about is always a better setup? In the 8-10th thread, folks kept talking about how the 14th was a better setup.

I'm not faulting you or making fun. . .just find it funny that the models always seem about ten days away from giving us our megabomb. Or our epic cold snap. Or our next blowtorch. wink.gif

This winter:
10 days out megabombs have never materialized but a number of instances where a megabomb was shown there was something significant that did happen. Instead of 2' storm more like a 4 to 8" / 6 - 12" actually materialized.

Long range cold they have been pretty good at predicting this winter.

Whenever they have shown a torch it has either never materialized or been of short duration.

My cutoff for believing a bomb will happen (especially on the Euro) is in the H120 range. I have seen too many times the Euro advertise something big in the 6 to 8 day range and have it not happen. Another thing the EURO has done is advertise a megabomb in the 6 to 8 day range, completely back off the idea, then bring it back in the 2 to 3 day range but not as big as originally "advertised".
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jordan4385
post Feb 5 2014, 01:44 PM
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http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-ph...sl&hour=192

gfs prettymuch looks like same. Would be an epic phase if those 2 met up.


--------------------
20th anniversary tripple phaser ?
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d-_-b
post Feb 5 2014, 01:47 PM
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EURO also still has the storm

This post has been edited by d-_-b: Feb 5 2014, 01:48 PM


--------------------
2017-18: 9.2"
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LUCC
post Feb 5 2014, 01:52 PM
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QUOTE(Twim19 @ Feb 5 2014, 08:41 AM) *
Ever notice how an event four or five days after the one a thread is talking about is always a better setup? In the 8-10th thread, folks kept talking about how the 14th was a better setup.

I'm not faulting you or making fun. . .just find it funny that the models always seem about ten days away from giving us our megabomb. Or our epic cold snap. Or our next blowtorch. wink.gif

Couldn't agree more. laugh.gif


--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"
12/13-14 - 1.5"
12/15 - 2.25"
12/30 - 4"
1/4 - 6.5"
1/17 - 1"

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Feb 5 2014, 02:14 PM
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Euro has 2 storms during this time period, 1 on the 13th and one on the 14th...(looks like same energy)

Last VD storm i was living upstate, what a storm that was lol

This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Feb 5 2014, 02:15 PM


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 133.7”(as of 2/7)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2”
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2”
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1”
My PWS
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ZLearned
post Feb 5 2014, 02:56 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Feb 5 2014, 02:14 PM) *
Euro has 2 storms during this time period, 1 on the 13th and one on the 14th...(looks like same energy)

Last VD storm i was living upstate, what a storm that was lol


If your talking about 2007 I remember that storm very, very well. Was an all out blizzard up here got we hit the jackpot with 44 inches!!!


--------------------
2016 - 2017 Winter

2/12 - 2/13 - 12.5 inches
2/15 - 2/16 - 8 inches
3/15 - 3/14 - 30 inches!
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LoveNYCSnow
post Feb 5 2014, 03:00 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 5 2014, 01:52 PM) *
Couldn't agree more. laugh.gif


agree, the problem is people are getting a bit spoiled and if it's not a megabomb, people lose interest in the storm. The reality it the setup that is shown in the longrange will change so therefore a great setup may not look so great a few days from now or vice versa.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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kpk33x
post Feb 5 2014, 03:09 PM
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Bring it on! I took vacation the 13th and 14th. No 5AM "are we going to open" calls! laugh.gif


--------------------
Winter 2017 - Mahomet, IL

Snowfall:
October: T
November: T
December: 4.25" (Dec. 27th)

# subzero lows to date: 1
Lowest temperature: -3F
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BtownWxWatcher
post Feb 5 2014, 03:29 PM
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12z Euro Ensembles have a BIG storm signal


--------------------
No Wishcasting,Just Forecasting
twitter: @nicksterdude010


Winter 2014-2015:Weak El Niño? Return of the Polar Vortex or Torch?
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d-_-b
post Feb 5 2014, 03:37 PM
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QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Feb 5 2014, 03:29 PM) *
12z Euro Ensembles have a BIG storm signal


GFS ensembles as well


--------------------
2017-18: 9.2"
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