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> Long Range Winter 2014-2015 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
Boomer
post Nov 18 2014, 11:02 AM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Nov 18 2014, 09:12 AM) *
Agreed as it was quite an EXTREME winter for many different reasons, but absolutely it could unfold again (just need the same parameters to establish themselves as was present in "76" and BOOM) the winter of 1976 round 2 ohmy.gif


Honestly, I would love to see it happen. We don't really get a lot of snow here in central Illinois, but when we get those 1-2 footers (which has only happened like 2 times in my life (2007 and 2013)) I enjoy it a lot!
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jdrenken
post Nov 18 2014, 05:43 PM
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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Nov 16 2014, 09:52 PM) *
Quite a few interesting thoughts in this thread. I can't believe it's that time of the year already. biggrin.gif

Have no thoughts in terms of what to expect this winter myself. Just going to sit back and enjoy whatever happens.

I must say though, the models are picking up on a strong wave 1 signal for the stratosphere...big time wave 1 pattern projected. Those strong HP anomalies over scandinavia that we are seeing in the 8-10 from the GFS/ECM is a classic stratosphere warming signal (well, as classic as it gets when looking at tropospheric models). Could be an early start to some serious cold...but first the warming has to happen!


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stxprowl
post Nov 19 2014, 09:38 PM
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My Philadelphia major network winter snow forcasts:
Avg is 21"
Last year 68"

NBC10 40-45"
http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/sto...-282407431.html

6ABC 30-36"
http://6abc.com/weather/cecilys-winter-wea...outlook/394035/

CBS3 34-40"
http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/video/108...ather-forecast/

FOX29 29-33"
http://www.myfoxphilly.com/story/27420607/...-winter-outlook

Philly.com 30-40"
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Bolariss...ry_Oh_yeah.html
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kpk33x
post Nov 21 2014, 01:27 PM
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The AW extended forecast/long range GFS is very confident that I will have a white Xmas... laugh.gif

QUOTE
High Low precip Snow Forecast
Tue
12/23/2014 33 13 0.13 in 3.5 in Considerable cloudiness
Wed
12/24/2014 23 6 0.44 in 10.3 in Windy and colder with snow
Thu
12/25/2014 22 1 0.07 in 2 in Periods of snow


16" of snow ought to do it.




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Fall Countdown - Intervale, NH
First sub 50 low - 8/15
First sub 45 low - 9/9
First sub 40 low - 9/13
First sub 35 low - 9/15
First frost - 9/15
First subfreezing low - 10/31
First sub 30 low - 10/31
First sub 25 low - 11/15 (low for season 19F on 11/16)
First flakes - 11/2
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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 04:08 PM
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Awesome way to start Meteorological winter smile.gif




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Yesterday, 04:09 PM


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Southern Missour...
post Yesterday, 06:10 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 22 2014, 05:08 PM) *
Awesome way to start Meteorological winter smile.gif




That is gross. I'm pretty sure you are the only one in this thread who would enjoy seeing that.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 06:17 PM
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QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Nov 22 2014, 06:10 PM) *
That is gross. I'm pretty sure you are the only one in this thread who would enjoy seeing that.

There's a few people, but they don't post as much as I do. This winter will most likely make winter lovers happy... all I ask for is more variation in the weather. No endless clipper trains please.

I'm surprised we're looking at a warm-up like this... the BSR had a trough for most of November.


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Mid Tn. Man
post Yesterday, 06:24 PM
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Attached File  GFS_30mb_Temperature____Instant_Weather_Maps.png ( 64.28K ) Number of downloads: 2


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snowsux
post Yesterday, 11:50 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 22 2014, 07:17 PM) *
There's a few people, but they don't post as much as I do. This winter will most likely make winter lovers happy... all I ask for is more variation in the weather. No endless clipper trains please.

I'm surprised we're looking at a warm-up like this... the BSR had a trough for most of November.


Count me in, bro! Only problem is that I've seen those CPC maps bust more times than I can count. As for the upcoming winter, I fully expect to see a repeat of the bitter arctic cold that we saw last year, and unfortunately I also think that this will be another year where winter long wears out it's welcome into spring. A few variants have developed (possible weak El Nino, etc), but overall we're still looking at the same patter that we were in last year: Unseasonably warm in Alaska, hot and dry on the west coast, jet stream still bulging way up into the northwest & diving down through the middle of the country.

I think we'll make it a week or two into December before we start seeing the prolonged arctic blasts, just like last winter. It'll be really interesting to see whether or not the EPO is in the driver's seat this time around. That was really something last year.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 11:59 PM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Nov 22 2014, 11:50 PM) *
Count me in, bro! Only problem is that I've seen those CPC maps bust more times than I can count. As for the upcoming winter, I fully expect to see a repeat of the bitter arctic cold that we saw last year, and unfortunately I also think that this will be another year where winter long wears out it's welcome into spring. A few variants have developed (possible weak El Nino, etc), but overall we're still looking at the same patter that we were in last year: Unseasonably warm in Alaska, hot and dry on the west coast, jet stream still bulging way up into the northwest & diving down through the middle of the country.

I think we'll make it a week or two into December before we start seeing the prolonged arctic blasts, just like last winter. It'll be really interesting to see whether or not the EPO is in the driver's seat this time around. That was really something last year.

Agreed... there's not much going for a warm winter, other than knowing how mother nature likes to screw with us sometimes. At least we're getting conditioned to it much earlier than normal.

At least when there's a cold winter, there's lots of things to track. The side effect is usually a much more boring severe weather season.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Today, 12:06 AM


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snowsux
post Today, 12:08 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 23 2014, 12:59 AM) *
Agreed... there's not much going for a warm winter, other than knowing how mother nature likes to screw with us sometimes.

At least when there's a cold winter, there's lots of things to track. The side effect is usually a much more boring severe weather season.



Well, there is always hope I guess. I remember quite a few apocalyptic winter forecasts from multiple sources in the fall of 2011, and we all know how that went. I actually tried to find the long-range winter 2011-2012 thread here just for an amusing read, but alas I can't seem to locate it.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 12:13 AM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Nov 23 2014, 12:08 AM) *
Well, there is always hope I guess. I remember quite a few apocalyptic winter forecasts from multiple sources in the fall of 2011, and we all know how that went. I actually tried to find the long-range winter 2011-2012 thread here just for an amusing read, but alas I can't seem to locate it.

Yeah. I read the last dozen or so pages of the 2011-2012 thread. Pretty funny stuff... at least in my opinion. Probably most people here don't find it very funny. laugh.gif

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=23461

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Mid Tn. Man
post Today, 12:28 AM
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Attached File  Climate_System_Monitoring___TCC.png ( 418.66K ) Number of downloads: 0


Good signs of warming,not sure how long before we see a split in Dec

This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Today, 12:30 AM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 12:32 AM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Nov 23 2014, 12:28 AM) *
Attached File  Climate_System_Monitoring___TCC.png ( 418.66K ) Number of downloads: 0


Good signs of warming,not sure how long before we see a split in Dec

Here's a link that has a better loop of the stratosphere.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intr...emp30anim.shtml


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Mid Tn. Man
post Today, 01:03 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 22 2014, 11:32 PM) *
Here's a link that has a better loop of the stratosphere.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intr...emp30anim.shtml


Fun to watch,all signs still look like early Dec


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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 01:09 AM
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Couldn't it be problematic for the cold winter forecasts if the PV gets split too many times, too early in the season? I'd imagine that's gotta have some effect on the PV in the long-range. I can't imagine splitting the vortex can be all good news for winter lovers... seems like there's gotta be a consequence.

For example; lake-effect snow... the more lake-effect snow you get early on, the earlier the lakes will freeze. The earlier the lakes freeze, the earlier the lake-effect snow season ends. The positive thing is early-season lake-effect snow. The consequence is the lakes freezing early in the season, which effectively ends the lake-effect snow season earlier than usual. If you enjoy it earlier, you won't be able to enjoy it later.

I'm just asking because I don't know much about the PV and SSW.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Today, 01:12 AM


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Mid Tn. Man
post Today, 01:32 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 23 2014, 12:09 AM) *
Couldn't it be problematic for the cold winter forecasts if the PV gets split too many times, too early in the season? I'd imagine that's gotta have some effect on the PV in the long-range. I can't imagine splitting the vortex can be all good news for winter lovers... seems like there's gotta be a consequence.

For example; lake-effect snow... the more lake-effect snow you get early on, the earlier the lakes will freeze. The earlier the lakes freeze, the earlier the lake-effect snow season ends. The positive thing is early-season lake-effect snow. The consequence is the lakes freezing early in the season, which effectively ends the lake-effect snow season earlier than usual. If you enjoy it earlier, you won't be able to enjoy it later.

I'm just asking because I don't know much about the PV and SSW.

You worry to much..lol..it will play out.But it sure will get cold mellow.gif

This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Today, 01:36 AM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 02:29 AM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Nov 23 2014, 01:32 AM) *
You worry to much..lol..it will play out.But it sure will get cold mellow.gif

I'm already expecting a very cold winter, so I've got nothing to worry about. I'm just wondering if there's a side-effect for the PV being so active this early.


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Mid Tn. Man
post Today, 02:35 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 23 2014, 01:29 AM) *
I'm already expecting a very cold winter, so I've got nothing to worry about. I'm just wondering if there's a side-effect for the PV being so active this early.


Good question,not sure what you will find climatology wise with this setup


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alczervik
post Today, 06:34 AM
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QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Nov 22 2014, 06:10 PM) *
That is gross. I'm pretty sure you are the only one in this thread who would enjoy seeing that.


I am one of those people too. I would love to see a warmer winter but it seems like a lot of the elements from last winter are occurring this winter.

Ridge west, trough east
warmer pacific

I can see it now. Snow on the ground again until mid April, cooler summer. The pattern just does not change.

I am starting to wonder if the PV is moving from its traditional location near north pole to northern Ontario?





This post has been edited by alczervik: Today, 06:39 AM
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