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> Jan. 28-29th Southeast Snow OBS, Short Range
hckyplayer8
post Jan 23 2014, 06:58 PM
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May be the biggest threat for deep South snow yet this winter.

Over current depiction synoptically speaking, large PV circulation through Hudson Bay and Atlantic Canada with decent East based NAO ridge as a shortwave passes through the region.

Euro looks to be the most extreme by bringing several inches of snow from the Florida panhandle all the way into the Delmarva.

This post has been edited by hckyplayer8: Jan 27 2014, 09:04 PM


--------------------
The opinions in my posts are of my own and do not represent those of the USAF.



Grand Forks AFB 2015-2016 Snowfall - 28.85" 52 days of trace






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Twim19
post Jan 23 2014, 07:05 PM
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Might be interesting to keep an eye on. DT posted something about it this evening and wxsouth has also been quietly mentioning it as an outside possibility.

I'm not hopeful, but it would be nice if the storm went NW a bit and slammed southern Delmarva with a foot or so after that disappointing showing with the last storm.
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DeepSouthSC
post Jan 24 2014, 12:27 AM
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QUOTE(hckyplayer8 @ Jan 23 2014, 06:58 PM) *
May be the biggest threat for deep South snow yet this winter.

Over current depiction synoptically speaking, large PV circulation through Hudson Bay and Atlantic Canada with decent East based NAO ridge as a shortwave passes through the region.

Euro looks to be the most extreme by bringing several inches of snow from the Florida panhandle all the way into the Delmarva.


It's cool you've made a thread, hcky. Unfortunately, the SE crew has died out on this forum.

Hopefully, you can continue to post info, in regards to this potential winter storm. Thanks in advance!
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 24 2014, 01:45 AM
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Here is the 0z euro 24 hr snowfall

Attached Image
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NorEaster07
post Jan 24 2014, 02:47 PM
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Yesterdays 12z Euro post from Alan

12Z EURO, 12ZCANADIAN, 12ZGFS


Attached Image


GGEM Snow totals


Attached Image


EURO Snow totals


Attached Image


Euro12z data for Moorehead City, North Carolina on the coast

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MRH    LAT=  34.72 LON=  -76.65 ELE=    10

                                            12Z JAN24
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
TUE 12Z 28-JAN   1.6    -3.6    1021      58      74    0.00     555     538    
TUE 18Z 28-JAN   0.6    -2.4    1022      69      99    0.06     555     538    
WED 00Z 29-JAN   0.7    -3.0    1021      83      99    0.15     554     538    
WED 06Z 29-JAN   0.5    -5.5    1018      89      98    0.22     553     539    
WED 12Z 29-JAN  -0.5    -5.2    1017      93     100    0.40     551     538    
WED 18Z 29-JAN  -1.3    -7.2    1018      90      99    0.19     546     532    
THU 00Z 30-JAN  -2.8    -9.6    1022      77       7    0.03     542     525    
THU 06Z 30-JAN  -4.5   -10.2    1024      67       2    0.00     543     525
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NorEaster07
post Jan 24 2014, 03:01 PM
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Bernie video. Always worth watching in entirety.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-vide...k/2430839568001
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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Jan 24 2014, 07:07 PM
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im seeing subtle trends to the nw, or are my eyes deceiving me lol


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

Winter 2017-18 snow totals imby
Dec 9th....3.0 inches
Dec 13th...0.25 inches
Dec 15th...1.0 inches
Dec 30th..0.50 inches
Jan 3rd-4th...1.0 inches
Jan 16-17th...1.25 inches
Feb 17-18th...2.00 inches
March 6-7th...1.25 inches
March 20-21...6.25 inches
----------------------------------------------

Total snowfall.....16.50 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
16-17....2.75 inches
17-18....16.50 inches
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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Jan 24 2014, 07:08 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 24 2014, 03:01 PM) *
Bernie video. Always worth watching in entirety.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-vide...k/2430839568001
what I like about Bernie is that he doesn't hype, just gives it to you straight


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

Winter 2017-18 snow totals imby
Dec 9th....3.0 inches
Dec 13th...0.25 inches
Dec 15th...1.0 inches
Dec 30th..0.50 inches
Jan 3rd-4th...1.0 inches
Jan 16-17th...1.25 inches
Feb 17-18th...2.00 inches
March 6-7th...1.25 inches
March 20-21...6.25 inches
----------------------------------------------

Total snowfall.....16.50 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
16-17....2.75 inches
17-18....16.50 inches
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Overkast
post Jan 24 2014, 08:44 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 24 2014, 02:47 PM) *
Yesterdays 12z Euro post from Alan

12Z EURO, 12ZCANADIAN, 12ZGFS


Attached Image


GGEM Snow totals


Attached Image


EURO Snow totals


Attached Image


Euro12z data for Moorehead City, North Carolina on the coast

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MRH    LAT=  34.72 LON=  -76.65 ELE=    10

                                            12Z JAN24
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
TUE 12Z 28-JAN   1.6    -3.6    1021      58      74    0.00     555     538    
TUE 18Z 28-JAN   0.6    -2.4    1022      69      99    0.06     555     538    
WED 00Z 29-JAN   0.7    -3.0    1021      83      99    0.15     554     538    
WED 06Z 29-JAN   0.5    -5.5    1018      89      98    0.22     553     539    
WED 12Z 29-JAN  -0.5    -5.2    1017      93     100    0.40     551     538    
WED 18Z 29-JAN  -1.3    -7.2    1018      90      99    0.19     546     532    
THU 00Z 30-JAN  -2.8    -9.6    1022      77       7    0.03     542     525    
THU 06Z 30-JAN  -4.5   -10.2    1024      67       2    0.00     543     525

Where do you get those Euro and GGEM images from?
I especially like that Euro top left image. I've been using the crude PSU displays for a long time and that one looks so fresh.

This post has been edited by Overkast: Jan 24 2014, 08:45 PM
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NorEaster07
post Jan 25 2014, 06:53 AM
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QUOTE(Overkast @ Jan 24 2014, 08:44 PM) *
Where do you get those Euro and GGEM images from?
I especially like that Euro top left image. I've been using the crude PSU displays for a long time and that one looks so fresh.


AccuPro and Raliegh subscriptions.

GFS trending drier. Euro still shows snow. They went with dry for now.. .. Here's what NWS Wilmington, NC says.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
558 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 30S MOST PLACES AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK. SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND DEEP BROAD MID
TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY
TO PRODUCE ANY PCP. HAVE KEPT SMALL MENTION OVER COASTAL WATERS IN
THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT LATEST GFS MODEL RUN KEEP A VERY DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE AND THEREFORE LIKELIHOOD OF PCP REMAINS SLIM. ECMWF
SHOWS SLIGHTLY GREATER CHC FOR SOME PCP RIGHT ALONG THE COAST ON
TUES AND COLUMN WILL SUPPORT SNOW IF THIS OCCURS BUT FOR NOW WILL
TREND TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST LEAVING ALL PCP OFF THE COAST TUES OR
WED.
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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Jan 25 2014, 10:37 AM
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this storm, isn't looking like it will effect me much up here in central md, but I think u guys in the Carolinas, could see a nice snowfall. still got 4 days but, so far, u guys have the best shot at snow. ... so far


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

Winter 2017-18 snow totals imby
Dec 9th....3.0 inches
Dec 13th...0.25 inches
Dec 15th...1.0 inches
Dec 30th..0.50 inches
Jan 3rd-4th...1.0 inches
Jan 16-17th...1.25 inches
Feb 17-18th...2.00 inches
March 6-7th...1.25 inches
March 20-21...6.25 inches
----------------------------------------------

Total snowfall.....16.50 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
16-17....2.75 inches
17-18....16.50 inches
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AmyRenee
post Jan 25 2014, 06:13 PM
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From what I have read today, the threat for the piedmont of NC for any snow is pretty much over. sad.gif I'm so hoping things will turn around. We have seen only a dusting so far this winter, and last winter wasn't much better! We need some snow. sad.gif Any chances??
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east coast storm
post Jan 25 2014, 06:34 PM
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QUOTE(AmyRenee @ Jan 25 2014, 06:13 PM) *
From what I have read today, the threat for the piedmont of NC for any snow is pretty much over. sad.gif I'm so hoping things will turn around. We have seen only a dusting so far this winter, and last winter wasn't much better! We need some snow. sad.gif Any chances??

The 18Z GFS takes the storm on a more east track well off the coast to be
mainly an ocean storm in the Wednesday timeframe.
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Weather4LA
post Jan 25 2014, 10:15 PM
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Interesting forecast discussion posted this afternoon from my local NWS office in New Orleans regarding this potential snow event for the deep south, particularly my area:

QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
432 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014

........
.SHORT TERM...

BEYOND SUNDAY EVENING...THE FORECAST...AND THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
BOTH GO DOWNHILL. FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH RAIN
AMOUNTS RATHER LIGHT. QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE SPEED AND STRENGTH
OF THE COLD AIR IMPACT. ECMWF AND GFS PUSH THE COLDER AIR
SOUTHEASTWARD MORE AGGRESSIVELY MONDAY NIGHT THAN DOES THE 12Z
NAM. HOW COLD AND HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE COLD AIR GETS HAS A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. DURING
MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RAIN DURING THE EVENING WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...BUT AS SEEN
YESTERDAY...IT DOESNT TAKE A LOT TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. AS A JET
IMPULSE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK
OUT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR WOULD BE
ENTRENCHED ENOUGH WHERE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS SLEET OR
SNOW. THE 12Z NAM DOES NOT DIG THE COLD AIR AS DEEPLY...AND SHOWS
QUITE A WARM NOSE OF AIR BETWEEN 800 AND 900 MB THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. THAT MODEL ALSO PAINTS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY
AND MUCH OF THAT COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN...LOOKING AT NAM
SOUNDINGS. ALL THREE SOLUTIONS HAVE AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT FROM
VARIOUS MEMBERS OF 00Z AND 12Z ENSEMBLES. HOPEFULLY...LATER RUNS
WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING REGARDING
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS. SO STAY TUNED.


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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Weather4LA
post Jan 25 2014, 10:21 PM
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The 00Z NAM forecast model for January 26 shows a large swath of precipitation spreading over the Texas/Louisiana coastal regions, including my own Baton Rouge area through Tuesday morning, then spreading along the entire northern Gulf Coast by Tuesday night. It shows my location as getting mostly, if not all, snow....to the tune of several inches! smile.gif I'll take that!

However this is just one run of one model. I need to compare this to other models such as the GFS (which has been dry) and the European model (which is all over the place).

As an interesting note, this would be occurring just four days after the last winter weather event (ice, sleet, a little snow) for my area. Bring on WINTER FUN!!! biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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Weather4LA
post Jan 25 2014, 11:15 PM
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And this evening's hazardous weather outlook for my local NWS office now includes a mention of wintry precip potential:

QUOTE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
921 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014

.............

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SEEING ANOTHER ROUND OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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Storms R us
post Jan 26 2014, 06:53 AM
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QUOTE(Weather4LA @ Jan 25 2014, 11:15 PM) *
And this evening's hazardous weather outlook for my local NWS office now includes a mention of wintry precip potential:


Be safe down south; hope there aren't too many accidents
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Storms R us
post Jan 26 2014, 08:02 AM
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Radar looks like the Gulf and FL panhandle are starting to fire up
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Weather4LA
post Jan 26 2014, 08:27 AM
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QUOTE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
646 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014

.....................

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY COLD AIR WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OVER THE COLD AIR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE OUTLOOK AREA. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS SOME SNOW WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
...WITH VARIABLE
TYPES OF PRECIPITATION WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REGARDING WINTER
WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA.


I live in that northern half of the forecast area! biggrin.gif And here's the special weather statement that was issued this morning:

QUOTE
...IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OFTEN THIS WINTER...ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC
BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL END AS THE COLDER AIR
PENETRATES FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO INTO THE
WEST GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MYRIAD TYPES OF PRECIPITATION DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS
NEAR THE SURFACE AT THE TIME OF OCCURRENCE.

AT THIS TIME THE GREATER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TAPERING OFF BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AREA OF GREATER IMPACTS AT THIS TIME APPEAR
TO BE ACROSS THE LOWER PARISHES OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING
THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF
COAST. WHILE TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...IT DOES APPEAR THAT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH...ENOUGH TO GLAZE
EXPOSED SURFACES WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT.

THE PARISHES AND COUNTIES NORTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES MAY
EXPERIENCE AN ONSET OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT SNOW FALL
WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN 0NE-HALF AN
INCH OF SNOW AND ONLY A LIGHT GLAZING OF ELEVATED SURFACES FROM
ANY FREEZING RAIN PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING TO SNOW.

IT IS WITH GREATER CERTAINTY THAT A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE FREEZE IS LIKELY CLOSER TO THE LOUISIANA COAST AND AREAS
NEAR THE TIDAL LAKES.

STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL MARINE AREAS. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS CAN EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE POSTED
FOR STRONG NORTH WINDS AND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW STRONG THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY BE
AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE MOISTURE PENETRATES NORTHWARD INTO THE
COLDER AIR...ALL PARISHES AND COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEW
ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE FORECAST AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS. THIS REMAINS A FLUID SITUATION IN
REGARDS TO DETAILING WHAT IMPACTS MAY AFFECT PARTICULAR LOCATIONS.
THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE OF SOME WINTER
WEATHER IMPACTS TO OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AND/OR A WINTER WEATHER WATCH MAY BE POSTED AT A LATER TIME THIS
EVENING OR MONDAY MORNING AS WARRANTED.


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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ncwxlover
post Jan 26 2014, 11:43 AM
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From: Concord, NC
Member No.: 15,889





Been watching this since Wednesday of last week. I am interested to see how much accumulation we get here in eastern NC and how long it will stay around. The State isnt equipped too well for snow/ice so more than likely anything over 3-4 inches and the area will be shut down. We'll wait and see I guess.
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