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snowlover2
Posted on: Today, 02:50 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


April 19 Single Day Standings

idecline, Mesilla NM - 0pts
snowlover2, Alamogordo NM - 0pts
joseph507123, Las Cruces NM - 0pts



2018 Overall Round 1 Standings Through April 19

1. joseph507123 - 74pts
2. ColoradoChinook - 63pts
3. andyhb - 62pts
T4. snowlover2 - 54pts
T4. melissa from illinois - 54pts
6. WeatherDudeNYC - 51pts
7. idecline - 33pts
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2326814 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

snowlover2
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:02 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Hobbs NM for 4/20/18.
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2326773 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

snowlover2
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:01 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


April 18 Single Day Standings

idecline, Kokomo IN - 0pts



2018 Overall Round 1 Standings Through April 18

1. joseph507123 - 74pts
2. ColoradoChinook - 63pts
3. andyhb - 62pts
T4. snowlover2 - 54pts
T4. melissa from illinois - 54pts
6. WeatherDudeNYC - 51pts
7. idecline - 33pts
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2326772 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 18 2018, 07:56 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Alamogordo NM for 4/19/18.
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2326747 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 18 2018, 04:37 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


April 17 Single Day Standings

idecline, Hebron NE - 0pts
joseph507123, Ashland NE - 0pts


2018 Overall Round 1 Standings Through April 17

1. joseph507123 - 74pts
2. ColoradoChinook - 63pts
3. andyhb - 62pts
T4. snowlover2 - 54pts
T4. melissa from illinois - 54pts
6. WeatherDudeNYC - 51pts
7. idecline - 33pts
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2326735 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 17 2018, 02:43 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


April 16 Single Day Standings

idecline, North Star DE - 0pts
joseph507123, Philadelphia PA - 0pts


2018 Overall Round 1 Standings Through April 16

1. joseph507123 - 74pts
2. ColoradoChinook - 63pts
3. andyhb - 62pts
T4. snowlover2 - 54pts
T4. melissa from illinois - 54pts
6. WeatherDudeNYC - 51pts
7. idecline - 33pts
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2326654 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 16 2018, 03:28 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


April 15 Single Day Standings

melissa from illinois, Charlotte NC - 27pts
andyhb, Mt. Holly NC - 23pts
joseph507123, Gastonia NC - 15pts
snowlover2, Statesville NC - 11pts
ColoradoChinook, Aiken SC - 9pts
idecline, Apex NC - 6pts
WeatherDudeNYC, Shelby NC - 4pts

2018 Overall Round 1 Standings Through April 15

1. joseph507123 - 74pts
2. ColoradoChinook - 63pts
3. andyhb - 62pts
T4. snowlover2 - 54pts
T4. melissa from illinois - 54pts
6. WeatherDudeNYC - 51pts
7. idecline - 33pts
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2326587 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 16 2018, 03:38 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


QUOTE(joseph507123 @ Apr 16 2018, 12:33 AM) *
I counted 13pts for our picks. Did you miss the Quitman one? Looks to be barley in on the south side.[attachment=355552:1_point.png]

Still get 12. The 5 wind reports near Meridian were from a tornado so those are cancelled out and i see 7 other wind reports including Quitman for 12 total.
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2326469 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 15 2018, 04:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


April 14 Single Day Standings

andyhb, Meridian MS - 12pts
joseph507123, Meridian MS - 12pts
snowlover2, Laurel MS - 4pts
ColoradoChinook, Birmingham AL - 1pt
melissa from illinois, Birmingham AL - 1pt
idecline, Demopolis AL - 0pts
WeatherDudeNYC, State Line MS - 0pts


2018 Overall Round 1 Standings Through April 14

1. joseph507123 - 59pts
2. ColoradoChinook - 54pts
3. WeatherDudeNYC - 47pts
4. snowlover2 - 43pts
5. andyhb - 39pts
T6. idecline - 27pts
T6. melissa from illinois - 27pts
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2326419 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 15 2018, 05:25 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Apr 14 2018, 05:35 PM) *
Jesup GA for 4/15/18.

Changing to Statesville NC for 4/15/18.
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2326327 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 14 2018, 04:35 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Jesup GA for 4/15/18.
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2326237 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 14 2018, 04:33 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


April 13 Single Day Standings

snowlover2, Red Hill AR - 0pts
melissa from illinois, Little Rock AR - 0pts
ColoradoChinook, Little Rock AR - 0pts
idecline, Pocahontas AR - 0pts
andyhb, Bauxite AR - 0pts
joseph507123, Redfield AR - 0pts
WeatherDudeNYC, Hope AR - 0pts



2018 Overall Round 1 Standings Through April 13

1. ColoradoChinook - 53pts
T2. WeatherDudeNYC - 47pts
T2. joseph507123 - 47pts
4. snowlover2 - 39pts
T5. idecline - 27pts
T5. andyhb - 27pts
7. melissa from illinois - 26pts
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2326236 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 14 2018, 04:17 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Yep, 2nd moderate risk in 10 days and both failed pretty miserably.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326232 · Replies: · Views: 8,884

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 06:22 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Several tornado warnings from S MO to W AR.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326024 · Replies: · Views: 8,884

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 02:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


First tornado warning of possibly many.

QUOTE
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Norman OK
226 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northern Seminole County in east central Oklahoma...

* Until 315 PM CDT

* At 225 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Seminole, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Seminole, Cromwell and Little.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 204 and 213.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326001 · Replies: · Views: 8,884

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 02:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


New tornado watch for IA/MO/KS.

Attached Image

QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 41
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
220 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Iowa
Northeast Kansas
Northwest Missouri
Southeast Nebraska

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing over eastern Kansas will track
northeastward across the watch area, while other isolated cells form
over IA/northern MO. Supercells capable of large hail and a few
tornadoes are expected.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Knoxville IA
to 60 miles south southwest of Olathe KS. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 39...WW 40...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 23035.

...Hart
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326000 · Replies: · Views: 8,884

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 02:00 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


PDS watch up.

Attached Image
QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 40
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
150 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Much of Arkansas
Northwest Louisiana
Southeast Oklahoma
Northeast Texas

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms are expected to track across the
watch area this afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of
tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds. Strong tornadoes are
possible. Multiple rounds of severe storms are expected across this
region.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 70 miles south of Longview TX to 20
miles northeast of Flippin AR. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 39...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Hart
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325990 · Replies: · Views: 8,884

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 01:26 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


First tornado watch up with storms popping in central OK.

Attached Image

QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 39
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
115 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northwest Arkansas
Southeast Kansas
Southwest Missouri
Eastern Oklahoma
North central Texas

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until
1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Storms developing along and ahead of the dryline are
expected to intensify and evolve into supercells capable of very
large hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 55 miles east northeast of Chanute KS
to 20 miles east southeast of Waco TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Dial
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325979 · Replies: · Views: 8,884

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 01:02 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


No real change on new day 2.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325968 · Replies: · Views: 8,884

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 12:49 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Another tornado watch likely west of the possible PDS.

Attached Image
QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 0237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...north central Texas through eastern
Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri and northwest
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 131739Z - 131945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop early to mid
afternoon from north central Texas through east Oklahoma and
southeast Kansas posing a risk for very large hail, damaging wind
and a few tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible imagery shows boundary-layer cumulus
increasing along sharpening dryline and dryline/cold front merger
from southeast KS through central OK and north central TX. Cloud
breaks and low-level theta-e advection is promoting destabilization,
and objective analysis shows a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in
warm sector. The atmosphere still appears capped by an inversion
located around 800 mb associated with warm air at the base of the
elevated mixed layer. However deep ascent with a lead shortwave
trough continues to act on this layer, and should eventually erode
the inversion such that surface-based storms will initiate along the
dryline during the next couple hours. The 18Z Fort Worth RAOB showed
substantial cooling in the capping layer compared to the 12Z. While
deep-layer shear is very strong (50-55 kt), VWP data continues to
indicate veer-back-veer characteristics, possibly due to the effects
of the lead shortwave trough. Low-level hodographs are initially
large with current 0-1 km storm relative helicity around 250+ m2/s2.
However, some decrease in 0-1 km hodograph size should occur as the
low-level jet shifts east. Nevertheless, the overall environment is
supportive of supercells and bowing segments capable of very large
hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes this afternoon.

..Dial/Hart.. 04/13/2018
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325965 · Replies: · Views: 8,884

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 12:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Tornado watch going to be issued in the next couple hours in the moderate risk and they are considering making it a PDS.

Attached Image

QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 0238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Northwest LA...Central and Southern
AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 131741Z - 131945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorm activity over southeast OK and
northeast TX may become rooted in the boundary layer by mid
afternoon. This will increase the risk of intense storms capable of
tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. A tornado watch will be
needed later today.

DISCUSSION...Radar/satellite imagery shows a band of elevated
convection extending from Pushmataha/Choctaw counties OK southward
into Kaufman/Navarro counties TX. Some increase in intensity has
been noted in the past hour, although activity remains sub-severe.
A substantial capping inversion was in place over this region at
12z, but the 18z FWD/LZK soundings indicate rapid cooling at the
base of the EML and a diminishing cap. Given current trends, the
thunderstorm activity may become surface-based in the next couple of
hours.

Strong low-level wind fields will remain in place ahead of the
convection, and may increase through early evening. Local VAD
profiles already show 0-3 km SRH values of 300-400 m2/s2 with
forecast soundings suggesting values over 500 m2/s2 this evening.
Assuming activity can remain semi-discrete, a few intense supercells
are likely to evolve. Parameters appear favorable for the risk of
strong tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging winds. PDS
wording is being considered in the tornado watch for this region.


..Hart.. 04/13/2018
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325964 · Replies: · Views: 8,884

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 12:43 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


Laurel MS for 4/14/18.
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2325962 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 11:40 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


No change on newest day 1 update.
Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
ARKLATEX REGION...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
ARKLATEX REGION...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous to widespread severe storms are expected from the
Mid-Missouri Valley south into the Ark-La-Tex states and Lower
Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. Several tornadoes
(some strong), very large hail, and damaging winds will be possible.

...Arklatex Region...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a large upper trough over the
central Rockies, with fast-cyclonic flow over the central/southern
Plains. Strong southerly low-level winds ahead of the trough will
continue to transport gulf moisture northward, leading to a corridor
of moderate CAPE values across parts of eastern OK, east TX and
western AR/LA. Morning convection is occurring in some of these
areas, and the potential exists for this activity to become rooted
in the destabilizing boundary layer by early/mid afternoon.
Low-level vertical shear will become quite strong in vicinity of
these storms as they move into the MDT risk area, with 0-3km
helicity values of 300-500 m2/s2 posing a risk of strong tornadoes.
Very large hail and damaging winds will also be possible as activity
spreads eastward - eventually toward the MS River late tonight.

Several 12z CAM solutions indicate repeat development of storms in
the Arklatex region this evening, suggesting that parts of northeast
TX/southwest AR/northwest LA may see more than one round of severe
storms.

...IA/KS/MO...
A deepening surface low over southeast NE will track into southwest
IA today along a strong warm front. Isolated supercell storms are
expected to form in the vicinity of the warm front and the dryline
extending southward into KS. Very large hail will be possible, but
forecast soundings also suggest sufficient vertical shear and
low-level CAPE to pose a risk of tornadoes for the first 1-2 hours
of the event.

Farther south across western MO, confidence in the eventual storm
evolution is low. A few 12z CAMs suggest that isolated supercell
storms will affect this region. Forecast soundings are also quite
favorable with ample CAPE, steep lapse rates, and favorable shear.
However, quite a bit of guidance casts doubt on the convective
coverage. Will maintain the ENH risk area due to the conditional
risk, but confidence is decreasing.

..Hart/Broyles.. 04/13/2018
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325952 · Replies: · Views: 8,884

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 10:59 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


April 12 Single Day Standings

idecline, Vermillion SD - 0pts



2018 Overall Round 1 Standings Through April 12

1. ColoradoChinook - 53pts
T2. WeatherDudeNYC - 47pts
T2. joseph507123 - 47pts
4. snowlover2 - 39pts
5. idecline - 27pts
6. andyhb - 27pts
7. melissa from illinois - 26pts
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2325945 · Replies: · Views: 7,123

snowlover2
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 01:05 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,222
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713


New day 2
Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENH RISK INTO MIDDLE TN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
IL/IN...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST TO THE OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are expected from portions of the Midwest
to the central Gulf Coast Saturday.

...Discussion...

Lower CO River Valley mid-level speed max is forecast to eject
through the base of western US trough during the day1 period before
translating into MO by 14/18z. This feature will induce a surface
low that should track near/along the I-70 corridor from KS into
central IL by peak heating Saturday. An attendant warm front will
advance into the OH Valley early in the period; however, the
strongest diurnal heating/steep low-level lapse rate environment are
expected to be confined to portions of IL/IN immediately ahead of
the surface low. Strong/severe convection is expected to develop
ahead of the cold front by early afternoon across IL then spread
into western IN by late afternoon.

A secondary mid-level speed max should dig south-southeast into
Mexico which should encourage height falls across the lower MS
Valley region during the day. It's not entirely clear whether a
secondary, weaker surface low will evolve along the advancing cold
front across LA/MS but it appears a wave should evolve which will
encourage low-level convergence. Latest model guidance suggest a
pronounced southerly LLJ will translate east across the Mid South
and vertical shear profiles will be more than sufficient for
organized long-lived updrafts. If boundary-layer heating is as
pronounced as the NAM suggests over eastern MS/western AL a corridor
of 2000+ J/kg SBCAPE could evolve ahead of the front. Large-scale
forcing suggests considerable amount of frontal convection but
isolated supercells could also develop ahead of the boundary. If
discrete storms evolve the tornado threat would be greater than with
the frontal squall line.

..Darrow.. 04/13/2018
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325897 · Replies: · Views: 8,884

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