Gulf of Mexico Tropical Development 2012, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Waves and LPs Options

[Juniorrr]

I have a question I'm going on a cruise on Saturday out of Miami to the Caribbean , and was wondering how rough the sea will be leaving port.

It may be pretty rainy with some light winds. Idk what route Miami to the Caribbean cruises(like west around Cuba or southeast through Bahamas) take but for now it looks mostly just some rain and light seas. Just keep an eye out though since development could happen very soon around the tip of Cuba and west of Florida in the GOM.

[jonjohnson]

Any reason this isn't an invest area yet? I mean...it looks like it should be.

the way this is blowing up in the last few hours make me think it will be atleast a tropical storm by the end of the day. But I am no expert. But the circular blob northwest of cuba seems to be rotating.

[Phased Vort]

Any reason this isn't an invest area yet? I mean...it looks like it should be.

Although itīs at 30%, the area is still pretty disperse and desorganized.


Looking at it right now, it seems to be starting to get better organized near the Yucatan pen.

At any rate, this seems like it will be a slow developmental process. Next week should be when we actually see a much more defined system, although the ECMWF wants to make this organization come quicker.

Should be an official invest this afternoon, with a possible upgrade to 40%.

[Phased Vort]

I have a question I'm going on a cruise on Saturday out of Miami to the Caribbean , and was wondering how rough the sea will be leaving port.

If the route takes the ship towards the Bahamas and then between east Cuba and west Hispniola, then you should have fair weather.

However if the route takes the ship into the Caribbean by turning around west Cuba, you could encounter cloudy or rainy conditions and some wind possibly, as the tropical cyclone will be forming to the NW of western Cuba over the central GOMEX.

However, the sea, may actually be choppier than normal. So I would expect some level of rough sea, even if just to be prepared.

[NYCSuburbs]

lol @ ggem

Basic math equation:

ggem = lol

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Jun 21 2012, 10:59 AM

[Phased Vort]

There seems to be a spin low pressure just off the coast of north central Yucatan penninsula. The heavier thunderstorms are to the east of it closer to the Yucatan channel.

[Undertakerson]

If the route takes the ship towards the Bahamas and then between east Cuba and west Hispniola, then you should have fair weather.

However if the route takes the ship into the Caribbean by turning around west Cuba, you could encounter cloudy or rainy conditions and some wind possibly, as the tropical cyclone will be forming to the NW of western Cuba over the central GOMEX.

However, the sea, may actually be choppier than normal. So I would expect some level of rough sea, even if just to be prepared.

from my earlier post

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

Choppy is an understatement.

Basic math equation:

ggem = lol

[Phased Vort]

Orange candy drop at 50%:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

Atlantic TWO

[rvincent]

Judging by the last few statelite loops on the weather channel this storm seems to be exloding and wouldn't suprise me if it reached TS status by tonight

[jonjohnson]

Orange candy drop at 50%:


Atlantic TWO

recon scheduled for tomorrow

[Phased Vort]

recon scheduled for tomorrow

If RECON is scheduled for tomorrow NHC is thinking this is a pretty serious threat.

[Phased Vort]

Moderator message:

Further discussion about this system forming as of today 21/06/2012, should now continue in the Invest 96L thread.

Thanks for the cooperation.

[Ron in Miami]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

3. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH IN
THIS AREA...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$


FORECASTER BEVEN

[MAC292OH10]

[Phased Vort]

It did it.

Tropical Storm Helene, former TD7.