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idecline
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 02:04 PM


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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 20 2017, 12:23 PM) *
Keep hope alive! Lol. Speaking of changes, if you notice the BeOP frequency, it suggests a lot of action beginning soon and heading through mid October. Storms to keep notes on I suspect as they could become "signature" value. wink.gif


...just a note from an 'observational and anecdotal' 'forecaster'...meaning idee's inanities... dry.gif

last winter the eastern Pacific high pressures all seemed to be orientated in an E-W kind of look with weakness at the coast...the centers of pressure seemed to be located further west than what my recollection of previous years looked like...sort of like the so-called 'Banana highs' over the Atlantic...

...with this trough coming into the Pacific Northwest in a big hurry...it 'anecdotally' seems like a strong Pacific jet may be the big player again this winter...with a La Nada 'redux' to boot...idee sees wet, wet winter for West...

...above based on poster non-linear accumulation and regurgitation of other's incisive study in 'forecasts'...

Warning: the above is all pure conjecture...based upon nothing more than idee's whimsical weather world... huh.gif

Attached Image

rolleyes.gif ...can you say 'amplification'...?
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2247712 · Replies: · Views: 137,638

idecline
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 01:45 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
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...Puerto Rico took direct hit...and Dominica... sad.gif ...
Attached Image

...Jose seems to want stay semi-stationary off Atlantic Canada coast for next several days...trough in central Canada is going to be sent up and over...waiting for new energy off the Pacific(seems very strong) to move east and perhaps be the last minute 'push' to keep Maria just offshore of direct EC hit...
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...do Jose and Maria do the dance...or are they too far for any interaction...and would that send Jose retrograde towards coast...??? ...too many questions are to be resolved...only good from landfall has been slight weakening of storm and another appearance of moving towards N/NW...Coriolis do your stuff...
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247705 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

idecline
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 01:31 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
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Cloquet, MN on 09/21/2017

Clontarf, MN on 09/22/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2247700 · Replies: · Views: 33,491

idecline
Posted on: Sep 18 2017, 08:40 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...what?...a front and associated deep trough bearing down on the West Coast...on September 18th...?
Attached Image

yowzah...I guess that we may have a little shot of rain in the north...and a bunch of cool air...Sierra snow???

Attached Image


...it looks to have plenty of upper air support as the low sails down the coast...bringing cold air and instability

blink.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2247172 · Replies: · Views: 67,958

idecline
Posted on: Sep 18 2017, 08:18 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...this storm is really in mature state...pinhole eye and deepening quickly...some weakness to N...?
Attached Image

OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...this has Maria already a bit north...TD Jose seems to linger on the caboose of trailing front...Fujiwhara???

...hopefully once it moves a bit to NW the rapid deepening will force it to interact with remains of Jose and exit (stage right)... unsure.gif

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247160 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

idecline
Posted on: Sep 18 2017, 07:56 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Dilworth, MN on 09/19/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2247149 · Replies: · Views: 33,491

idecline
Posted on: Sep 14 2017, 02:02 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(NwsScott @ Sep 14 2017, 01:58 PM) *


500 mb verification scores over North America.

1 = perfect score for model verification over NHemisphere 500 mb. Note Cmc is scoring better than the Gfs model. Ukmet as usual is scoring number 2.


...meaning the even 'best' verification has over a 11% error rate...and some of us rolleyes.gif use 'absolutes'...
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246189 · Replies: · Views: 149,085

idecline
Posted on: Sep 14 2017, 01:46 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Sleepy Eye, MN on 09/15/2017

Blue Earth, MN on 09/16/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2246183 · Replies: · Views: 33,491

idecline
Posted on: Sep 14 2017, 01:25 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...forgot to add this the upper air 96hr OPC Atlantic...where are the highs?...(idee had a running commentary all last winter on 'El-Lipsis' weather about the shape and configuration of high pressure in the the Eastern Pacific basin...this same 'discrepancy' seems to be proving true in the Atlantic basin this summer...)
OPC 96hr upper air:
Attached Image


...just a minor weather 'perception' problem?

EDIT: idee diatribe... dry.gif

...in our 'rush' to 'forecast' weather...it seems to idee's uneducated eye that we as observers have an innate bias towards 'weather' and the features that bring 'weather'...in this instance meaning storms, winds, snows, and tornadoes, and of, tropical systems...idee's question is why is so much time spent on the 'small' features that contain the 'weather' (Low Pressure systems) and we tend to ignore the ability of High Pressure to be the 'strange attractors'...the rocks in the stream...the bouncy. buffeting purveyors of sinking air..and also whose position, alignment and intensities tend to actually drive the weather...in concert with the jet stream(s)...polar air (stratospheric also)...and ocean temperatures, currents, and winds...

idee has often wondered that the deformation and change in how the 'world' make high pressure systems is becoming the largest 'driver' of what could be called 'climate change' induced weather pattern anomalies...

...as usual...idee is 'just sayin'...
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246175 · Replies: · Views: 149,085

idecline
Posted on: Sep 14 2017, 01:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...idee apologizes for his earlier 'crack' on the "Irma" thread about storms doing 'loop-de-loops'... rolleyes.gif

...now we have TS Jose doing exactly that...the players are again lining up to try to 'steer' this storm...

...and as usual...everyone is having a hard time...very dry air being shunted off the SE coast...
Attached Image

...TS Jose is 'trapped' for the moment trying to fight off the non-conducive tropical conditions nearby...
...with no real features coming into direct play in the near future...his track should turn to the NW then N...
OPS Atlantic 96hr:
Attached Image


...the 'low' that gave California 'tropical' style thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday has a lot of 'gas'...
...hopefully the ensembles are underestimating the 'strength' of any eventual steering components to come off the EC of the CONUS...in the meanwhile a churning tropical system (Jose) will buffet the EC with winds and waves...hopefully that will be the extent of incursion this 'wandering' system will make upon any landmasses.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246169 · Replies: · Views: 149,085

idecline
Posted on: Sep 12 2017, 08:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Tonopah, NV on 09/13/17

Kanorado, KS on 09/14/17
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2245932 · Replies: · Views: 33,491

idecline
Posted on: Sep 7 2017, 06:30 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Surprise, AZ on 09/08/2017

Kendall, FL on 09/09/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2242666 · Replies: · Views: 33,491

idecline
Posted on: Sep 5 2017, 09:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Weed, CA on 09/06/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2240890 · Replies: · Views: 33,491

idecline
Posted on: Sep 5 2017, 09:55 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Weed, CA on 09/06/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2240889 · Replies: · Views: 33,491

idecline
Posted on: Sep 5 2017, 04:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(RobB @ Sep 5 2017, 04:40 PM) *
Wow!

QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Sep 5 2017, 04:41 PM) *
Man what a beast. blink.gif


...as MJ said several times...it has the look of a Western Pacific "typhoon"...symmetrical and very dangerous...

...moving at 280 degrees just a tad off of exactly to the W...will she take another little jog soon...and...N or S?
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2240619 · Replies: · Views: 1,269,813

idecline
Posted on: Sep 5 2017, 04:38 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...interesting...Jose is starting to bloom...hot on the heels of Irma...and 95L new tropical depression may play a part in this whole solution...
huh.gif
Attached Image

...notice the moistire being thrown back into the eastern GOM and the immediate breakout of thunderstorms over Cuba...?!
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2240606 · Replies: · Views: 1,269,813

idecline
Posted on: Sep 5 2017, 03:25 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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from AccuWeather...
Attached Image

...
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2240145 · Replies: · Views: 1,269,813

idecline
Posted on: Sep 5 2017, 02:08 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Chichester, NH on 09/05/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2240123 · Replies: · Views: 33,491

idecline
Posted on: Sep 4 2017, 04:38 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Kokomo, IN on 09/04/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2239271 · Replies: · Views: 33,491

idecline
Posted on: Sep 3 2017, 12:44 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(idecline @ Sep 3 2017, 03:22 AM) *
warning another idee rant:
#1...please don't use absolutes after viewing computer models
#2...first OTS...then LI...then DelMarva...NC...SC...Florida...??? doesn't anybody know these are 'models'???
#3...next it will bridge the gap into GOM...then...it will go into the Yucatan...(just kidding...)... dry.gif

SW jog was expected...steering winds and now warmer SST's will be important factors...strong storms are hard to predict...heck it could loop de loop for all we know...

just chill folks...by Tuesday it will be much clearer where she goes...absolutes are just wrong...and dangerous

OPC Atlantic 96hr:


Attached Image


...and those people who specifically forecast the weather over oceans say possibly heading NW
...oh just nevermind... huh.gif



QUOTE(idecline @ Sep 3 2017, 03:45 AM) *
...idee doesn't know if this was already posted...seems like a very good disco though...

...and one can always sing the chorus to The Smiths song "Panic"..."hang the DJ, hang the DJ...hang the DJ"...if somebody doesn't like the song... dry.gif

Cheerio...and goodnight...


idee does not wish to hurt anyone's feelings...just now that the SW shift has occurred we have a much less predictable storm...because of low latitude(less Coriolis force) and a storm creating it's 'own' path with lots of warm water...more southerly solutions are becoming more apparent... smile.gif
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2238743 · Replies: · Views: 1,269,813

idecline
Posted on: Sep 3 2017, 03:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
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...idee doesn't know if this was already posted...seems like a very good disco though...
QUOTE
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017

The cloud pattern of Irma has not changed significantly in structure
today. The eye continues to become apparent and then hide under
the convective canopy, and this has been the observed pattern for
the past 24 hours or so. Dvorak estimates go up and down with the
presence of the eye, but an average of these numbers supports an
initial intensity of 95 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane will help
with the intensity estimate on Sunday.

I hesitate to speculate too much about the environment that Irma is
embedded within. All of the standard ingredients necessary for
strengthening are forecast to be at least marginally favorable, but
none are expected to be hostile for intensification. The NHC
forecast, which in fact is similar to the previous one, continues to
be a blend of the statistical models and the explosive strengthening
shown by the regional hurricane and global models.

The subtropical ridge building to the north of Irma has been
steering the hurricane toward the west or 260 degrees at 12
kt. The ridge is forecast to amplify even more, and this flow
pattern will force the hurricane to dive west-southwestward for a
couple of days. Irma should then begin to gain latitude once it
reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge in about 3 days. The
confidence in the track forecast is high for the next 72 hours since
all of the reliable guidance is basically on top of each other.
After 3 days, when the hurricane is forecast to be approaching the
northern Leeward Islands, the guidance envelope spreads out and
becomes bounded by the southernmost tracks of the HWRF, HCCA and the
ECMWF models, and by the northernmost GFS and UK models. The
confidence beyond 3 days is then much lower. Tonight's NHC forecast
was adjusted a just little to the south of the previous one due to
another small shift of the guidance envelope. The forecast is
basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCX.

While Irma is currently a small hurricane, the size guidance
suggests it should grow in size during the next 72 h. This will
affect how soon watches may be issued for portions of the Leeward
and Virgin Islands.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves closer to
the Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip
currents. Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify
where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and
listen to any advice given by local officials.

2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will
have on the Bahamas and the continental United States. Regardless,
everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 18.3N 46.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 17.8N 48.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 17.2N 50.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 16.7N 52.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 16.5N 54.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 17.7N 59.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 19.9N 64.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 22.5N 69.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN


...and one can always sing the chorus to The Smiths song "Panic"..."hang the DJ, hang the DJ...hang the DJ"...if somebody doesn't like the song... dry.gif

Cheerio...and goodnight...
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2238529 · Replies: · Views: 1,269,813

idecline
Posted on: Sep 3 2017, 03:22 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
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QUOTE(NwsScott @ Sep 3 2017, 03:01 AM) *
This will hit Florida. I am going all in and I am getting scared about what could happen.

warning another idee rant:
#1...please don't use absolutes after viewing computer models
#2...first OTS...then LI...then DelMarva...NC...SC...Florida...??? doesn't anybody know these are 'models'???
#3...next it will bridge the gap into GOM...then...it will go into the Yucatan...(just kidding...)... dry.gif

SW jog was expected...steering winds and now warmer SST's will be important factors...strong storms are hard to predict...heck it could loop de loop for all we know...

just chill folks...by Tuesday it will be much clearer where she goes...absolutes are just wrong...and dangerous

OPC Atlantic 96hr:


Attached Image


...and those people who specifically forecast the weather over oceans say possibly heading NW
...oh just nevermind... huh.gif
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2238526 · Replies: · Views: 1,269,813

idecline
Posted on: Sep 3 2017, 01:26 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
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Yuma, AZ on 09/03/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2238509 · Replies: · Views: 33,491

idecline
Posted on: Sep 2 2017, 03:51 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(MaineJay @ Sep 2 2017, 03:24 AM) *
Waiting for a meso floater. smile.gif
Here you go.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
You said there was no chance of an East Coast hit yesterday. unsure.gif


Thanks for the wake-up call to all this wrangling about...MJ...

Warning: idee rant #22,806
...strong storms seem to 'steer' themselves at times...stacked convection seems to react to upper level steering...(which in this case means a potential W/SW course in near time)...Coriolis force is lessened if storm stays on a lower latitude course...and what trofs, ridges, or deformities in the atmosphere are going to be final steering mechanisms as the storm nears landfall(s)...also if it makes any landfalls(s) before reaching the CONUS(or OTS) this may effect the intensity, course and ultimate path of said storm...

models and the conjecture based thereupon are 'disreality'...and can only be construed as 'virtual' reality...

...as we have seen from the devastation of hurricane Harvey, there is a huge difference in these 'realities'...

...this has been an idee rant...return to the usual modeling frenzy...idee can not reveal his thoughts because much of my 'forecasting' is based on visual observation of satellites...maps...and inference...meaning... huh.gif
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2237918 · Replies: · Views: 1,269,813

idecline
Posted on: Sep 2 2017, 02:50 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Delmar, DE on 09/02/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2237909 · Replies: · Views: 33,491

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