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> August 2nd, 2015 Severe Weather Outbreak, Moderate risk
PGM
post Aug 2 2015, 09:41 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 1,079
Joined: 9-February 14
From: Northdale, London, ON
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Multiple rounds of severe storms with damaging winds are likely this afternoon and evening. Heads up.

From OTW
Attached File  11825577_854716044619561_4276856233986737893_n.jpg ( 203.72K ) Number of downloads: 1

Current radar, as of 10:30 local, is showing storms developing in northern Michigan. These storms are moving southeast and will impact southwestern Ontario later today.
Attached File  currentradaraug2.png ( 559.45K ) Number of downloads: 0

First severe thunderstorm watch of the day in the states (time sensitive).
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From the NWS in Detroit
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From the SPC in Norman
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Attached File  hailriskspcaug2.gif ( 26.33K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  tornadoriskspcaug2.gif ( 24.71K ) Number of downloads: 0

QUOTE
SPC AC 021256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/ERN WI...NERN
IL...CENTRAL/SRN LM...LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA...EXTREME NWRN OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING ENH RISK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM PORTIONS CENTRAL
PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY...POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS NEBRASKA. THIS MAY INCLUDE ONE
OR TWO ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF GENERATING SWATHS OF
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL...AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA
TO LOWER MICHIGAN.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MIDDLE-UPPER LEVELS...HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
PERSIST ACROSS CONUS...CHARACTERIZED BY WRN RIDGING AND ERN
TROUGHING...DOWNSTREAM FROM BROAD/QUASISTATIONARY CYCLONE OVER NERN
PAC. STRONGEST PART OF CYCLONIC-FLOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH BIG
HUDSON BAY GYRE WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE UPPER GREAT LAKES BUT WILL
BACK DIRECTIONALLY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW OVER SRN MB --
AMPLIFIES AND MOVES SEWD. THAT PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH LS
AND NRN MN BY 00Z...MOVING TO LH...LOWER MI AND SRN WI BY 12Z. AS
THAT OCCURS...BOTH CURVATURE AND GRADIENT OF HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT WILL
TIGHTEN OVER THIS REGION...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF CONUS N OF ABOUT 37N AND FROM MID/UPPER MS VALLEY EWD.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED SFC LOW OVER ND/SD/MN BORDER
CONFLUENCE...WITH COLD FRONT ARCHING WSWWD THEN WNWWD OVER
CENTRAL/WRN SD AND SERN MT. WAVY WARM FRONT WAS DRAWN ESEWD THROUGH
SECONDARY LOW OVER NWRN WI THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN LM TO SRN LOWER
MI. WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS SLGT/ENH-RISK AREAS TODAY
PRIOR TO COLD FROPA. BY 00Z COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH CENTRAL/NRN
LOWER MI...SRN WI...WRN IA...CENTRAL NEB AND SERN WY. BY 12Z COLD
FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM SRN ONT ACROSS NRN INDIANA TO NRN KS AND ERN
CO...DECELERATING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS.

...UPPER MIDWEST GREAT LAKES REGION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STG-SVR TSTMS ARE EVIDENT ATTM FROM
UPPER MI AND LM WNWWD ACROSS NRN MN IN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND
FAVORABLE MOISTURE JUST ABOVE SFC. ACTIVITY IS MOVING SEWD NEAR NRN
FRINGES OF OUTLOOK AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LATER DEVELOPMENT/UPSCALE
SHIFT IN SVR POTENTIAL. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1582 AND 1583
FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE ON SVR SCENARIO FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION.

SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
INTO AFTN WITH SEWD EXTENT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND DCVA AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOME BETTER JUXTAPOSED WITH DIABATICALLY
DESTABILIZING PARTS OF SFC WARM SECTOR NEAR SFC COLD FRONT. ASIDE
FROM FRONTAL FORCING...INTENSIFICATION OF ANY PERSISTENT ANTECEDENT
CONVECTION ALSO MAY OCCUR WHILE MOVING INTO THIS REGIME.
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALSO MAY SERVE AS FOCI FOR
SUPPORTIVE PREFRONTAL LIFT. MORNING MPX/ABR RAOBS SHOW
RESIDUAL/ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND RELATED PLUME OF STEEP
LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT FACTOR...IN TANDEM WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY 60S F
AND LOCALLY NEAR 70...WILL LEAD TO PEAK AFTN MLCAPE RANGING FROM
AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER ERN LOWER MI TO 3500 J/KG NEAR MS RIVER PART
OF OUTLOOK.

AS FOR KINEMATIC SUPPORT...DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE STRONGEST IN THAT
PART OF WARM SECTOR IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO COLD FRONT...WITH 40-50
KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES POSSIBLE...DIMINISHING WITH SWWD AND
SEWD EXTENT. DESPITE SWLY-WLY SFC FLOW...VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF
WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL IMPART SUFFICIENT HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FOR
RISK OF SUPERCELLS AS LONG AS CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY
DISCRETE. GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...ANY SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS MAY PRODUCE LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND OFFER AT LEAST
TRANSIENT TORNADO RISK. EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE
ELONGATED/QUASI-LINEAR TSTM COMPLEXES IS EXPECTED INVOF FRONT...WITH
HAIL SIZE DIMINISHING AND WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING INTO THIS
EVENING. SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD RAMP DOWNWARD LATE THIS EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MUCH OF WARM SECTOR COOLS/STABILIZES...THOUGH AT
LEAST ISOLD HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
OH/INDIANA/IL.

...

..EDWARDS/DEAN.. 08/02/2015
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PGM
post Aug 2 2015, 10:44 AM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Northdale, London, ON
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Strong worded severe watch up for parts of central Ontario, including Manitoulin Island and Bruce/Grey counties.
QUOTE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUED FOR:
(For the next 4 hours, any Warnings, Watches, Advisories or Statements will be posted as comments to this post)
....
A significant severe weather situation is possible beginning this afternoon and extending into this evening. A line of severe thunderstorms is currently crossing Northern Lower Michigan towards Lake Huron. Conditions will become increasingly favourable for the development of dangerous thunderstorms associated with this line. They will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, large hail and heavy rain. Although this initial line may weaken somewhat a little later this afternoon, new strong thunderstorm development is highly likely in its wake. This watch will likely be extended southwards and eastwards throughout the afternoon as this dynamic thunderstorm situation develops.
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Entra_Phase
post Aug 2 2015, 03:04 PM
Post #3




Rank: Tornado
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From: Midland, Ontario
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QUOTE
Warnings
3:52 PM EDT Sunday 02 August 2015
Tornado warning in effect for:

Saugeen Shores - Kincardine - Southern Bruce County
Updated or ended by 4:35 p.m. EDT.

At 3:52 p.m. EDT, Environment Canada meteorologists are tracking an area of severe thunderstorms that is possibly producing a tornado. Damaging winds, large hail and locally intense rainfall are also possible.

It is located near Millarton and moving east-southeastwards at around 60 km/h. It is expected to be in the vicinity of Chepstow and Riversdale by 4:15 P.M. EDT.

Take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches. Tornadoes could be wrapped in rain and may not be visible. Do not wait to see a funnel cloud.

Go indoors to a room on the lowest floor, away from outside walls and windows, such as a basement, bathroom, stairwell or interior closet. Leave mobile homes, vehicles, tents, trailers and other temporary or free-standing shelter, and move to a strong building if you can. As a last resort, lie in a low spot and protect your head from flying debris.

Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

The Office of the Fire Marshal and Emergency Management recommends that you take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Please monitor local media or Weatheradio. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.

For more information:
http://www.ontario.ca/beprepared.



Looking like north of Goderich is gettin' hammered - That first gust front bowed right over my area, was some good wind for a bit, but nothing too crazy. Round 2 should be coming with-in the next hour or so, just in time for dinner.
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tml78
post Aug 2 2015, 04:16 PM
Post #4




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Looking like will be pretty intense.. The Gta needs the rain. Should be a good soak unless it dies down..
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PGM
post Aug 9 2015, 11:29 AM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 9-February 14
From: Northdale, London, ON
Member No.: 29,229





We got at least three confirmed tornadoes in southern Ontario, including two EF2s. Wow!
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