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> Hurricane Otto, 11/22 7pm EST 75mph - 987mb -Movement: W @ 2mph
Ron in Miami
post Nov 15 2016, 07:51 AM
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This is the late season storm the models have been showing in the Caribbean the last few days. Posting on mobile so I'll graphics later when I get on a computer. Happy tracking!

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Nov 22 2016, 09:03 PM
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beninbaltimore
post Nov 15 2016, 12:21 PM
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You can lead a horse to water but a pencil must be lead. - Stan Laurel
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Ron in Miami
post Nov 20 2016, 06:39 PM
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Looks like this one is gonna develop, here's the latest two:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low
pressure area over the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea have
become a little better organized during the past couple of hours.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Monday while
the low remains nearly stationary. For additional information on
this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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stretchct
post Nov 23 2016, 08:36 AM
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
700 AM EST WED NOV 23 2016

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS OTTO A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 80.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF LIMON COSTA RICA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otto was
located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 80.5 West. Otto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west and an
increase in forward speed are expected tonight and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Otto will move onshore within the
hurricane warning area on Thursday, and reach the Pacific coast of
southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica Thursday night or early
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Otto is expected to restrengthen into a
hurricane before it makes landfall on Thursday, with weakening
forecast after the center moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

"I'd rather bust low than bust high" - 2/9 Called for 9-10, got 15

Winter stats 2016-17
Snow to date: 58"
3-14 11.5"
3-10 5.5"
2-12 4"
2-9 15.75"
1-30 2.5"
1-23/24 1.25
1-14 1"
1-7 6.5"
1-6 2"
12-17 6"
12-12 1"
12-5 1"
First measurable 12-5 1"
First flakes 10-27
First freeze 10-25
First frost 10-11

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Nov 23 2016, 07:57 PM
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4pm disco strength was a bit off

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 11.2N 81.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 11.3N 82.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 11.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 10.9N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/1800Z 10.5N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 26/1800Z 9.5N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 9.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 10.5N 102.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Dropsonde with 979 pressure. Dropping pressure like mad. Dropsonde 21

Dropsonde 19 with 93kt surface winds and 120kts at 962 mb.
Attached Image



HDOB 36 has 971 pressure.

This post has been edited by stretchct: Nov 23 2016, 08:01 PM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

"I'd rather bust low than bust high" - 2/9 Called for 9-10, got 15

Winter stats 2016-17
Snow to date: 58"
3-14 11.5"
3-10 5.5"
2-12 4"
2-9 15.75"
1-30 2.5"
1-23/24 1.25
1-14 1"
1-7 6.5"
1-6 2"
12-17 6"
12-12 1"
12-5 1"
First measurable 12-5 1"
First flakes 10-27
First freeze 10-25
First frost 10-11

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Nov 24 2016, 08:51 AM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 3,513
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
700 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016

CORRECTED WIND SPEED IN SUMMARY TABLE

...OTTO HEADING FOR NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA WITH 105-MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 82.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF LIMON COSTA RICA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

iPad won't let me cut and paste other sections. But of note, some strengthening is expected and hurricane force winds only extend 10 miles out.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

"I'd rather bust low than bust high" - 2/9 Called for 9-10, got 15

Winter stats 2016-17
Snow to date: 58"
3-14 11.5"
3-10 5.5"
2-12 4"
2-9 15.75"
1-30 2.5"
1-23/24 1.25
1-14 1"
1-7 6.5"
1-6 2"
12-17 6"
12-12 1"
12-5 1"
First measurable 12-5 1"
First flakes 10-27
First freeze 10-25
First frost 10-11

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Nov 24 2016, 09:01 AM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 3,513
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Attached Image


Still pic doesn't do it justice. But the technology used for this forum won't allow the gif to load.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

"I'd rather bust low than bust high" - 2/9 Called for 9-10, got 15

Winter stats 2016-17
Snow to date: 58"
3-14 11.5"
3-10 5.5"
2-12 4"
2-9 15.75"
1-30 2.5"
1-23/24 1.25
1-14 1"
1-7 6.5"
1-6 2"
12-17 6"
12-12 1"
12-5 1"
First measurable 12-5 1"
First flakes 10-27
First freeze 10-25
First frost 10-11

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Nov 24 2016, 12:21 PM
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Posts: 3,513
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 241434
TCDAT1

HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
1000 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane penetrated the eye of
Otto around 1200 UTC this morning and indicated that the
hurricane was intensifying. The estimated central pressure dropped
to 976 mb and the flight-level wind at 700 mb peaked at 108 kt while
the SFMR winds reached 90 kt. Since that time, satellite imagery
showed that the hurricane cloud pattern has become better organized
with a distinct eye in both convectional and microwave imagery, and
the Data-T numbers reached 5.5 on the Dvorak scale. On this basis,
the initial intensity has been set at 95 kt.

There is an opportunity for some additional strengthening before
Otto makes landfall during the next several hours. However,
weakening should begin after the eye moves farther inland
across Central America. Otto is expected to emerge over the
eastern Pacific in about 12 to 24 h as a tropical storm. Otto should
continue to weaken as it moves over the eastern pacific given that
strong shear is forecast to prevail in that region, and the cyclone
should become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The
NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Otto is moving
toward the west or 270 degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is
trapped within easterly flow associated with a strong high
pressure to the north, and since this high is forecast to persist,
the hurricane should continue on a general west to west-southwest
track for the next 3 days. After that time, a much weaker Otto
should turn to the west-northwest around the western edge of
the high. The track guidance is very consistent with this
scenario and there is no need to deviate from the previous NHC
forecast. The forecast track continues to be very close to the
multi-model consensus.

NHC thanks the crew of the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters for
flying and providing valuable data on Thanksgiving Day.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 11.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 10.8N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 25/1200Z 10.3N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 26/0000Z 9.8N 89.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 9.5N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 9.0N 98.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 10.0N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 11.5N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

"I'd rather bust low than bust high" - 2/9 Called for 9-10, got 15

Winter stats 2016-17
Snow to date: 58"
3-14 11.5"
3-10 5.5"
2-12 4"
2-9 15.75"
1-30 2.5"
1-23/24 1.25
1-14 1"
1-7 6.5"
1-6 2"
12-17 6"
12-12 1"
12-5 1"
First measurable 12-5 1"
First flakes 10-27
First freeze 10-25
First frost 10-11

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Nov 24 2016, 12:27 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 3,513
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Just about landfall


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

"I'd rather bust low than bust high" - 2/9 Called for 9-10, got 15

Winter stats 2016-17
Snow to date: 58"
3-14 11.5"
3-10 5.5"
2-12 4"
2-9 15.75"
1-30 2.5"
1-23/24 1.25
1-14 1"
1-7 6.5"
1-6 2"
12-17 6"
12-12 1"
12-5 1"
First measurable 12-5 1"
First flakes 10-27
First freeze 10-25
First frost 10-11

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Nov 24 2016, 12:28 PM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 3,513
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Visible just prior to landfall



--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

"I'd rather bust low than bust high" - 2/9 Called for 9-10, got 15

Winter stats 2016-17
Snow to date: 58"
3-14 11.5"
3-10 5.5"
2-12 4"
2-9 15.75"
1-30 2.5"
1-23/24 1.25
1-14 1"
1-7 6.5"
1-6 2"
12-17 6"
12-12 1"
12-5 1"
First measurable 12-5 1"
First flakes 10-27
First freeze 10-25
First frost 10-11

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Snow____
post Nov 26 2016, 05:19 PM
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Joined: 16-November 08
From: Cincinnati, OH
Member No.: 16,172





What's the latest hurricane on record? And how late/early til something is considered a new season.


--------------------
Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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Weatherjunkie
post Dec 21 2016, 01:53 AM
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Anyone know a fella named Otto? It is a male name correct? Who comes up with these names? Probably the only guy at the WMO named Otto.


--------------------
The reason I talk to myself is that I am the only one whose answers I accept~ George Carlin

To be or not to be is not a question of compromise. Either you be or you don't be ~ Golda Meir

Sometimes good guys gotta do bad things to make the bad guys pay ~ Harvey Specter

Why is the rum gone? ~ Captain Jack Sparrow
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Ron in Miami
post Jan 4 2017, 04:35 PM
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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Dec 21 2016, 02:53 AM) *
Anyone know a fella named Otto? It is a male name correct? Who comes up with these names? Probably the only guy at the WMO named Otto.


How could you forget this one!? It's a classic man!! smile.gif

https://youtu.be/yekvXOn7s-I
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