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> 2016 Hurricane Outlook/Forecast, Long Range Forecast
jdrenken
post Mar 28 2016, 08:51 AM
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From Dr. Gray and Philip Klotzbach...

QUOTE
We will be issuing seasonal updates of our 2016 Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts
on Thursday April 14, Wednesday 1 June, Friday 1 July, and Wednesday 3 August.


December 2015 Qualitative Discussion


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


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jdrenken
post Mar 28 2016, 08:55 AM
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One of the reasons why I started this is because the EPS is showing an ULL off the SE coast around the 8th.


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QUOTE
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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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jdrenken
post Mar 28 2016, 09:05 AM
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JAMSTEC precip anomalies...

JJA


SON


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QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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goblue96
post Mar 28 2016, 04:08 PM
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My favorite storm season to track. This year has to be more active than the last two years.


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First Day above 60: February 23 (2/20/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 65: February 23 (3/9/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 70: February 24 (3/9/16, 4/13/15)

First Day above 75: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/2/15)

First Day above 80: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 85: April 11 (5/25/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 90: (5/28/16, 7/27/15)

First Day above 95: (2015 and 2016: Did not happen)

Days 90+: (2016: 9, 2015: 6)
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PoconoSnow
post Apr 7 2016, 03:54 PM
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my local paper ran this accu article verbatim. figured id post.

'Cold blob' to be a wild card in the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season


QUOTE
Whether or not ocean currents draw cold water from this blob southward into tropical regions of the Atlantic could determine how active the season becomes.


QUOTE
If the cooler water migrates southward across the eastern Atlantic, then westward into tropical breeding grounds, it will lower sea-surface temperatures over the region where 85 percent of Atlantic tropical systems develop.
Another possibility is that the water from the cold blob could alter the makeup of deep ocean currents and affect the salinity of the water.






current SST anoms



current north atlantic currents


This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Apr 7 2016, 04:11 PM


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PoconoSnow
post Apr 7 2016, 04:27 PM
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Also mentioned in paper was the possibility of a dying el niño to a LA Nina episode would create lower than average shear in the hurricane developmental regions possibly leading to a higher than normal season.



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jdrenken
post Apr 7 2016, 04:31 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Apr 7 2016, 04:27 PM) *
Also mentioned in paper was the possibility of a dying el niño to a LA Nina episode would create lower than average shear in the hurricane developmental regions possibly leading to a higher than normal season.


Going off of the RRWT, my thoughts are development off the SE coast and the Gulf of Yucatan/Mexico.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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OSNW3
post Apr 10 2016, 04:37 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Apr 7 2016, 04:31 PM) *
Going off of the RRWT, my thoughts are development off the SE coast and the Gulf of Yucatan/Mexico.


It has been a consistent BSR signature as well.

Off topic to hurricanes...

Going forward, I am also interested in the response of the RRWT in regard to the ISM this summer. smile.gif



According to the above, April will not be as similar to 2016 in my back yard in 2017, like it is progressing similar to 2015 in 2016.



Note: previous year is charted as the transparent temperature data (PY). Meaning 2016 is following a path similar to 2015.

We shall see.

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Apr 10 2016, 04:39 AM


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PoconoSnow
post Apr 19 2016, 03:22 PM
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Not quite related to the 2016 season but Eric Webb of NHC tweeted this poster out not too long ago. I thought it was pretty cool. Heck wish I had one, would be cool to look at.

Strongest Atlantic hurricanes 1978-2015

Attached File  IMG_20160419_161800.jpg ( 253.59K ) Number of downloads: 3

Ray Zehr

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Apr 19 2016, 03:22 PM


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jdrenken
post Apr 20 2016, 07:22 AM
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Dr. Gray passes away


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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phils1
post Apr 21 2016, 09:13 AM
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"2016 Tropical and Mid-Atlantic Summertime Outlook" by Vencore Weather:
http://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2016/4/...amu9ykmmmfdtrmi

Highlights:
1) Odds favor a hot and dry summer in the Mid-Atlantic region
2) Based on analog years, it looks like Atlantic Basin tropical activity will be slightly above normal this year with approximately 14 named tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 "majors"
3) Primary target area of Atlantic Basin tropical activity should be the Southeast US, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea regions
4) Tropical system rains not likely to “help out” much in the Mid-Atlantic region during the summer months

Major factors:
1) Weakening El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the beginning of La Nina conditions
2) Mixed sea surface temperature signals across the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico
3) Six analog years featuring similar "El Nino-to-La Nina" transition: 1954, 1964, 1988, 1998, 2007, 2010


(composite temperature anomaly map for June/July/Aug based on six analog years)
Attached File(s)
Attached File  Analog_temp_composite.png ( 159.56K ) Number of downloads: 0
 
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