Spring 2013 Options

[JJ Snowlover]

Nice summer (july) heat here in Ottawa today. And even more hot and humid tomorrow with temperatures expected to hit 31C-32C and a humidex near 40C. Enjoying this lots.

Yes nice for sure, but I hate the quick switch over to cool temps on Mon - Tues though, highs of only 17 - 19c. I guess we are still in spring mode for weather, but judging by some of the extended forecasts for the summer, it could become a pattern of warm fronts and cold fronts right behind them dropping temps...should bring lots of storm potiential though

[ottawasnowstorm]

Yes nice for sure, but I hate the quick switch over to cool temps on Mon - Tues though, highs of only 17 - 19c. I guess we are still in spring mode for weather, but judging by some of the extended forecasts for the summer, it could become a pattern of warm fronts and cold fronts right behind them dropping temps...should bring lots of storm potiential though

Wow! Even in july (the hottest time of year) today would be very hot and humid. It's not even 10:30 in the morning (though it might be when I log this post in) and already it feels that it's easily the hottest and most humid temperatures yet this year. I hope this is a sign of what's to come for the summer. Last year if I remember correctly, the hottest may day was over 32C (something like 32.5C or so) and you remember how hot that summer was (especially july) and that's what it's supposed to hit today (32C).

I do hope we also get a lot of storms as you mentioned the possibility of. But those high teen daytime highs next week, yeah, not looking forward to that. In any case, enjoy today and maybe tomorrow, too, for the hot & humid temperatures. I know I am.

[newfiebrit]

Nice summer (july) heat here in Ottawa today. And even more hot and humid tomorrow with temperatures expected to hit 31C-32C and a humidex near 40C. Enjoying this lots.

I actually think I would hate that, last Saturday was 22 degrees here up to about 28 with the humidex and that was warm enough for me even with the strong breeze it felt too warm!

[ottawasnowstorm]

I actually think I would hate that, last Saturday was 22 degrees here up to about 28 with the humidex and that was warm enough for me even with the strong breeze it felt too warm!

Well then, you would have hated today in Ottawa. At 4:00pm, the temperature in the east end of the city was 32C and the humidex was a steambath at 42C.

Will find out tomorrow morning what the official high was as I wasn't able to check much of the afternoon. I enjoyed it though, and hope to have many more days like this this summer.

[bigmt]

Spring 2013 forecast verification

The maps from my post back on March 1 - http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...t&p=1714410

 spring2013temp.png ( 111.94K ) Number of downloads: 0


Temp anomalies between Mar 1 & May 31:

 spring2013vertemp.gif ( 23.27K ) Number of downloads: 0


Precip:

 spring2013precip.png ( 107.24K ) Number of downloads: 0


 spring2013verprecip.gif ( 23.79K ) Number of downloads: 0


Looks as if I wasn't aggressive enough with the cold air's extent through central Canada but otherwise not too bad IMO.

Interesting to read my text again as well.

Temps

There's good support for a warmer-than-normal east with some degree of high-latitude blocking remaining in place but I'm going with near-normal temps through Manitoba and the GL due to the fact that some of the chillier air from the NW may be swept down through this region underneath the blocking ridge. It's possible that the warm anomalies aren't expansive enough but I would favour that warmth to be more widespread later in the period if it does pan out that way.

The west looks cool overall as the PDO and PNA dictate the pattern there, although periods of warmth are possible as there has been some weakening of the PDO values through January and greater-than-expected ridging occurred through the latter half of the winter. I still believe in an overall -PNA for the spring but I'm not ready to engulf the entire region in below-normal values at this stage. Some heat from the Plains States may expand northwards through the Prairies as the months wear on so near-normal temps for southern sections of the west as a compromise.

Precip

Drought should be less of an issue for NA as a whole compared to last year but could continue to plague parts of the USA where moisture hasn't been replenished through the winter. I can perhaps see some below-normal readings through the Prairies but it isn't a strong enough signal yet for me to bite on. Model consensus seemingly favours the western GL for some degree of sogginess (I'm not convinced this is an extremely wet area, simply wetter-than-average) and thus may indicate a greater potential for severe weather to be drawn into the eastern lakes. There's certainly better odds for a more normal thunderstorm season through S ON in my mind.

The above-normal precip may need to be expanded south in BC but if there's an extended period of wet and cold weather it will probably be earlier rather than later through the spring.

Summary

I would describe the overall spring pattern as average but variable. This should come as some relief when contrasted against the bizarre character of last year's season which eventually led to some extreme conditions in the summer months as the 'death ridge' parked itself over the center of the continent.

[JJ Snowlover]

Looks as if I wasn't aggressive enough with the cold air's extent through central Canada but otherwise not too bad IMO.

Great job bigmt, yes it was just the cold that needed to extended further south, but typically you wouldn't expect that much cold that far south in the spring, so overall, I think it was a good forecast

[newfiebrit]

Well then, you would have hated today in Ottawa. At 4:00pm, the temperature in the east end of the city was 32C and the humidex was a steambath at 42C.

Will find out tomorrow morning what the official high was as I wasn't able to check much of the afternoon. I enjoyed it though, and hope to have many more days like this this summer.

I would, coming from UK originally and now here, both island nations so excessive heat quite rare (even less so here than the UK which can get quite warm sometimes). I remember 2006 back in England, three days in a row hit 36c+ (not sure how much higher the hunidex was) what a struggle that was, of course most homes don't have air conditioning (much like here).

May in St Johns was actually quite a warm one by standards here, ended the warmest May since 2009 and 7th warmest since records began in 1942. Rainfall was around 70mm (average is 130mm) and was one of the few Mays on record not to see any snowfall (Gander further West got the snowiest May on record of course).