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> Long Range Spring 2017 Outlooks and Discussion, Share thoughts, forecasts, trends, excitement, anxiety here.
MD Blue Ridge
post May 22 2017, 10:01 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 22 2017, 10:28 PM) *
Imagine that


JB is a well versed prognosticator.

Oops I meant flawed pontifcator. There we go.

Page topper. Boom. Ah, winter. ST is a nerd.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: May 22 2017, 10:02 PM


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A gust of the past through the door and I'm back in my place.

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OSNW3
post Yesterday, 06:15 AM
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RRWT missing the bullseye a bit, but idea of a cool pool in center of United States was signaled on 5/1, 21 days ago, for 5/22-26.




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OSNW3
post Yesterday, 06:17 AM
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Signal was there.

Below is the RRWT 21-25d PW anomaly for 5/20-24 from 4/29. Yellows and oranges.


WPC


I read SAV broke a record yesterday.

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Yesterday, 06:17 AM


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kpk33x
post Yesterday, 07:24 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ May 22 2017, 11:23 AM) *
We, nor does any of our neighborhood have air conditioning and rarely seems like we'd need it. The "heat wave" was wonderful here. This 50F fog stinks. I complain during this weather. laugh.gif

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-07-1...-mountain-house

Link is to an article of the area up here, used to be an amusement park from the late 1800's through world war II. Was called "Coney Island in the Mountains". The depression and air conditioning killed the resort. There were 3 huge hotels on the mountain down around 1400', fires burned them down and they were never rebuilt.

Just for fun reading. Now, bring back the heat!


Interesting read...I'm not sure I ever heard of that place even when I lived down there. I drove past there plenty of times.

When I lived there I had property at Alpine Lake, WV (Terra Alta) that I sold when I left. It was always 7-10F cooler there (it was at 2600') and the leaves changed in late September...kind of like here. It used to be a ski resort (skyrocketing operating and insurance costs killed it, and could not compete with the relatively larger Wisp 25 minutes away). But when I was once planning to build a cabin there, the plans included central AC!

Our electric bills are plenty high in NH - when I run the window units I flirt with $200 a month - but we also do not do forced air w/ heat pump here. I can't imagine warming the air to 70F with half of one percent of humidity in January. laugh.gif


--------------------
Summer 2017 - Intervale, NH

# of 90 degree days:
May - 3 (through 5/22)

Season TD - 2

# of thunderstorm days: 2
Severe events/description:
5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
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kpk33x
post Yesterday, 07:28 AM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ May 22 2017, 10:03 PM) *
JB thinks June will be cool

Loving this cool weather


What's his go-to analog year for a cool June? You know, February will always be 2015, March 2014, 1984, or 1960, December 1989...and every stormy winter pattern is 1978.

I like reading his stuff but he goes right to the deep end on the analogs....historical events are historical for a reason.


--------------------
Summer 2017 - Intervale, NH

# of 90 degree days:
May - 3 (through 5/22)

Season TD - 2

# of thunderstorm days: 2
Severe events/description:
5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
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MD Blue Ridge
post Yesterday, 07:56 AM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ May 23 2017, 08:24 AM) *
Interesting read...I'm not sure I ever heard of that place even when I lived down there. I drove past there plenty of times.

When I lived there I had property at Alpine Lake, WV (Terra Alta) that I sold when I left. It was always 7-10F cooler there (it was at 2600') and the leaves changed in late September...kind of like here. It used to be a ski resort (skyrocketing operating and insurance costs killed it, and could not compete with the relatively larger Wisp 25 minutes away). But when I was once planning to build a cabin there, the plans included central AC!

Our electric bills are plenty high in NH - when I run the window units I flirt with $200 a month - but we also do not do forced air w/ heat pump here. I can't imagine warming the air to 70F with half of one percent of humidity in January. laugh.gif


Alpine Lake. A beautiful area.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiCVujt8krA

Our area is only really well known but Appalachian trailers now. If ever back in the area I urge you to see "the devils racecourse" shown in video I found above. Go to about min 1:20. 3 miles of rock a glacier ripped off the mountain. River runs below it. Truly amazing place.

Another cold, foggy morning. Thanks Phillyfan. A little hope in sight according to gfs, but not for a week or so.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Yesterday, 08:05 AM


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Cascade, MD
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phillyfan
post Yesterday, 08:18 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ May 23 2017, 08:56 AM) *
Alpine Lake. A beautiful area.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiCVujt8krA

Our area is only really well known but Appalachian trailers now. If ever back in the area I urge you to see "the devils racecourse" shown in video I found above. Go to about min 1:20. 3 miles of rock a glacier ripped off the mountain. River runs below it. Truly amazing place.

Another cold, foggy morning. Thanks Phillyfan. A little hope in sight according to gfs, but not for a week or so.

Still waiting for some rain. Doesn't look like it'll happen till Thursday and probably again Sunday for now. Haven't had a good rain since Saturday the 13th.


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2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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bingobobbo
post Yesterday, 09:12 AM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ May 23 2017, 08:28 AM) *
What's his go-to analog year for a cool June? You know, February will always be 2015, March 2014, 1984, or 1960, December 1989...and every stormy winter pattern is 1978.

I like reading his stuff but he goes right to the deep end on the analogs....historical events are historical for a reason.



The June analogs could be 1985, 1980, 1977, or--going way back--1958. JB must be excited that the 40th anniversary of the big stormy winter is coming up in a few months. June 1977 had followed a sunny, warm spring--the pattern changed right in the middle of Memorial Day weekend that year.


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MD Blue Ridge
post Yesterday, 09:15 AM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ May 23 2017, 10:12 AM) *
The June analogs could be 1985, 1980, 1977, or--going way back--1958. JB must be excited that the 40th anniversary of the big stormy winter is coming up in a few months. June 1977 had followed a sunny, warm spring--the pattern changed right in the middle of Memorial Day weekend that year.


You my friend are a wealth of historical data. I appreciate the records you can pull and compare to current conditions.


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Cascade, MD
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kpk33x
post Yesterday, 10:14 AM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ May 23 2017, 10:12 AM) *
The June analogs could be 1985, 1980, 1977, or--going way back--1958. JB must be excited that the 40th anniversary of the big stormy winter is coming up in a few months. June 1977 had followed a sunny, warm spring--the pattern changed right in the middle of Memorial Day weekend that year.


I remember June 2003 being wet back in Maryland and had an avg below 70F (69.8F) where normal is 73F. I do remember the first week of that month affected by a low sitting and spinning, and that was a rather wet summer overall so I'm sure clouds and a lack of warm/dry stretches kept the maxes from popping. Both 1977 and '80 were at 71.3/71.4F so not too remarkable in MD, but 1958 (68.8F) and 1955 (68.4F) were chilly...not old enough to remember why. 1997 had a cut off sitting for the first week with several record lows (and we stayed below 50F outside of Baltimore that day)...but the last 2/3 of the month was warm.

On the other end of the spectrum, 2010 (78.9F) and 1943 (79.8F) were blistering hot. I remember 2010 being the start of a hot, droughty summer that bled into September. At least that does not look to be happening in the east, if the GFS is to be believed.


--------------------
Summer 2017 - Intervale, NH

# of 90 degree days:
May - 3 (through 5/22)

Season TD - 2

# of thunderstorm days: 2
Severe events/description:
5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
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KENNYP2339
post Yesterday, 01:45 PM
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I'm looking at this weather pattern as a whole, and I'm starting to think that July and August will have some good severe weather days in the mid atlantic / northeast. The Mid west has been soggy, they are building moisture, I'm thinking that as the jet lifts north, this weather will shift north and east, couple that with these small but potent heat spells followed by cold fronts, I'm feeling as though we will have a few larger events coming up (derecho) or long lived linear events, its just my gut feeling after generally observing this pattern, please take it with a gain of salt.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 09:34 PM
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There's currently a big divergence regarding what happens after the system on the 27th. GFS wants to bring warmth back soon after, Euro doesn't. This can be explained by the disagreement with the MJO. GFS takes the MJO more into phase 2 and dies out, while Euro keeps it closer to phase 3 and the wave continues.



Beyond what immediately happens after the 27th, Euro has potential to make it into phase 4 and possibly beyond. This would mean warm weather in the first half of June.



So if the GFS is right, warmth will return after the 27th but the MJO dies out, which makes the first half of June more uncertain.

If Euro is right, the weather pattern will be cool and severe weather relatively stagnant... however, if it stays consistent with the MJO wave continuing, then we can expect warmth in the first half of June.

Euro was the outlier with the most recent MJO wave and it turned out to be correct, so I'm favoring Euro regarding the MJO. However, BSR has another severe threat ~4 days after the one on the 27th-28th, so perhaps Euro is going to cave into the GFS a little bit and allow for more of a warmup ahead of the next system.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Yesterday, 09:42 PM


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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/11/17)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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rtcemc
post Yesterday, 10:54 PM
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Oh great, the mid - atlanticer's have shown up and puked up this thread........ please leave. Ok, I shall add to it. Does this not look like the Polar Vortex from year's past(sorry Cliché) laugh.gif
Same thing happened Monday. In those 2 winters, the precip just hit a brick wall and just couldn't get north. Does look like a winter pattern, and does feel like winter no? Blah, blah, blah, I know it will make it up here eventually. I will see myself out, and MD no one on this thread has any idea what you are talking about laugh.gif


http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/northeast...er-radar?play=1
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Undertakerson
post Today, 03:55 AM
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Any vestige of a SER seems to be MIA for the foreseeable - seemingly, in agreement with the signal the BSR has been showing for some time now sad.gif

Although the western US upper air is not "exactly" a Rex block, it resembles one in amplitude as the heights, centered along the spine of the Rockies, holds tough - but shortwaves are able to cut under that structure. As those systems move east, they become entrained with the weak to moderate Eastern troughiness (in the lee of the western ridge) and keep us ( Eastern US) from warming all too much.

This probably lasts at least the first 10 days into June.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Today, 05:39 AM
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MaineJay
post Today, 05:48 AM
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Been a pretty spring-like spring to me. I put little faith into a "warm" May, it's a transitional month. we needed precip to finish off the drought, and even though it has led to what feels like a "bumper insect crop", I'd prefer to deal with insects, as miserable as they are, than folks wells running dry. And it's not like I can easily avoid the bugs, I'm working outside, in wooded areas, daily. I donate a much blood to parasitic insects as anyone.

But weather wise, got nothing to complain about up here. smile.gif


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MD Blue Ridge
post Today, 07:54 AM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ May 23 2017, 11:54 PM) *
Oh great, the mid - atlanticer's have shown up and puked up this thread........ please leave. Ok, I shall add to it. Does this not look like the Polar Vortex from year's past(sorry Cliché) laugh.gif
Same thing happened Monday. In those 2 winters, the precip just hit a brick wall and just couldn't get north. Does look like a winter pattern, and does feel like winter no? Blah, blah, blah, I know it will make it up here eventually. I will see myself out, and MD no one on this thread has any idea what you are talking about laugh.gif
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/northeast...er-radar?play=1


yes huh. laugh.gif

I believe RT is right. we don't belong here.

but as parting shot, another thank you to phillyfan, cold, rainy, and foggy here. and I know PF you haven't gotten any rain. Time to move from the desert that is Reading, PA. laugh.gif laugh.gif


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Elevation: 1625'
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kpk33x
post Today, 08:16 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 24 2017, 04:55 AM) *
Any vestige of a SER seems to be MIA for the foreseeable - seemingly, in agreement with the signal the BSR has been showing for some time now sad.gif

Although the western US upper air is not "exactly" a Rex block, it resembles one in amplitude as the heights, centered along the spine of the Rockies, holds tough - but shortwaves are able to cut under that structure. As those systems move east, they become entrained with the weak to moderate Eastern troughiness (in the lee of the western ridge) and keep us ( Eastern US) from warming all too much.

This probably lasts at least the first 10 days into June.


So a technical question - chicken-and-egg type of thing

Once we get into the summer months, is it more the Bermuda High directing traffic or its relative strength is determined by the jet/storm pattern?

There are some summers that SER does not budge from Memorial Day to Labor Day and the entire east cooks, some years there is more of an Omega pattern that bakes the Plains but allows cooler/wetter pattern in NW and NE. Then here and there a more springlike pattern with storms continuing to carve across the US south of the Canadian border which produces more widespread cooler/wetter pattern.

It appears (to me, anyway) that the Bermuda High is always present, but sometimes displaced east or west, sometimes weaker or stronger, and that tendency gives the summer pattern. What causes that gets into the more technical aspects beyond my armchair meteorologist level, but if someone in the know can shed some light, its appreciated!

This post has been edited by kpk33x: Today, 08:16 AM


--------------------
Summer 2017 - Intervale, NH

# of 90 degree days:
May - 3 (through 5/22)

Season TD - 2

# of thunderstorm days: 2
Severe events/description:
5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
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NorEaster07
post Today, 09:26 AM
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Only 6 days this month the max temp has been above normal! blink.gif

And what a way to skew reality! Without those few hot days, this month would of ended up well below normal.


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OSNW3
post Today, 09:56 AM
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Recurring modes suggest an Intermountain trough deliverance in the 21-25d range. Forward month suggests warm hues in the East.








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bingobobbo
post Today, 11:35 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ May 23 2017, 10:15 AM) *
You my friend are a wealth of historical data. I appreciate the records you can pull and compare to current conditions.



Thanks for the kind words--I enjoy comparing years to see if there are any patterns. Unfortunately for forecasters, each year is unique and there is always something that throws a monkey wrench into things.


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