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> Long Range Spring 2017 Outlooks and Discussion, Share thoughts, forecasts, trends, excitement, anxiety here.
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 19 2017, 12:21 AM
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Almost a springtime cyclone bomb




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 19 2017, 01:00 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 31 2017, 01:46 PM) *
This break in the pattern is epitomized by GEFS analog guidance. Ideal severe weather pattern showing up in the long-range.



Deja Vu!



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 19 2017, 12:16 PM
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GEFS has a very strong signal for a very active severe weather pattern in the 9-11 day timeframe



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 19 2017, 12:51 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 19 2017, 01:16 PM) *
GEFS has a very strong signal for a very active severe weather pattern in the 9-11 day timeframe


Very neat that we're able to put some confidence behind a day 10 severe forecast.

With a couple extra weeks of accumulated day length and sun angle this upcoming episode is likely to be that more robust than the late March/early April events.

CIPS guidance based on GEFS output suggests the active thunderstorm pattern will continue beyond day 10 as western US troughing continues to dominate.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 19 2017, 12:56 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Apr 19 2017, 01:51 PM) *
Very neat that we're able to put some confidence behind a day 10 severe forecast.

With a couple extra weeks of accumulated day length and sun angle this upcoming episode is likely to be that more robust than the late March/early April events.

CIPS guidance based on GEFS output suggests the active thunderstorm pattern will continue beyond day 10 as western US troughing continues to dominate.

Relative lull in severe storms (rather, tornadoes) lately, but it should pick up soon.

In other news... just bought GR2. Parents are paying for it as my birthday present... and probably my Christmas present. rolleyes.gif Probably would've bought it with my own money, but hey.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 19 2017, 12:56 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 19 2017, 01:21 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 19 2017, 01:56 PM) *
Relative lull in severe storms (rather, tornadoes) lately, but it should pick up soon.

In other news... just bought GR2. Parents are paying for it as my birthday present... and probably my Christmas present. rolleyes.gif Probably would've bought it with my own money, but hey.

Given how interested you are in convection, this will probably go down as one of the best decisions you make in your life (thus far). The volume renderings (or cross sections) add a whole new layer to understanding thunderstorm structure in near real time.

You have many many hours of watching radar ahead, use them wisely tongue.gif


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 19 2017, 01:27 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Apr 19 2017, 02:21 PM) *
Given how interested you are in convection, this will probably go down as one of the best decisions you make in your life (thus far). The volume renderings (or cross sections) add a whole new layer to understanding thunderstorm structure in near real time.

You have many many hours of watching radar ahead, use them wisely tongue.gif

Seems like this is a good year to have it, too. Just watch, from now on severe storm activity will fall very well below average laugh.gif

It is a smart investment, indeed. As you said, with as much as I'm gonna use it, it should be worth it in the long run.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 19 2017, 01:28 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 19 2017, 06:15 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 18 2017, 05:52 PM) *
Holy SE ridge


It hasnt left lol


--------------------
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 20 2017, 02:13 AM
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Most intense parameters I've seen since Pilger




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 20 2017, 11:59 AM
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GFS has a 4/27/11-like trough next week. Big longwave trough with shortwaves rotating around it. Massive severe weather potential.





--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 20 2017, 12:07 PM
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Drought conditions taking over the SE



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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OSNW3
post Apr 20 2017, 12:11 PM
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Finding harmony within the chaos.

RRWT 21-25d Lifted Index anomaly along side the WSI SWI and GFS LI outlooks. Valid ~4/28.



This post has been edited by OSNW3: Yesterday, 03:34 PM


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OSNW3
post Apr 20 2017, 12:14 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 19 2017, 12:56 PM) *
In other news... just bought GR2. Parents are paying for it as my birthday present... and probably my Christmas present. rolleyes.gif Probably would've bought it with my own money, but hey.


Sweet! Remember to sleep.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 20 2017, 12:44 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Apr 20 2017, 01:14 PM) *
Sweet! Remember to sleep.

Ah, thought I've been missing something. biggrin.gif

Strongest day 10 severe weather signal on I've seen. Almost 80% of the analogs had at least 1 severe report in central AR.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Apr 20 2017, 08:44 PM
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No shortage of rain so far this year, picked up 3/4" two days ago, another 1/2" so far today with pouring rain,thunder and lightning..About 7" over the last 30days..


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current (Avg 176.7")


2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 21 2017, 12:53 AM
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Insane!!!




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Ahoff
post Apr 21 2017, 07:35 AM
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Is there any signal for a big warm up late next week? Accuweather says Friday (4/28) will be 88 degrees! That's record tying. And the weather app on my phone says both Friday and Saturday will top out at 89! Record breaking both days and the second highest temps ever in April. Obviously its still a ways off, but wondering what models are seeing. Plus, I graduate from college Saturday and dressed nicely and in a cap and gown in near 90 degree weather, not too comfortable.
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jdrenken
post Apr 21 2017, 07:53 AM
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QUOTE(Ahoff @ Apr 21 2017, 07:35 AM) *
Is there any signal for a big warm up late next week? Accuweather says Friday (4/28) will be 88 degrees! That's record tying. And the weather app on my phone says both Friday and Saturday will top out at 89! Record breaking both days and the second highest temps ever in April. Obviously its still a ways off, but wondering what models are seeing. Plus, I graduate from college Saturday and dressed nicely and in a cap and gown in near 90 degree weather, not too comfortable.


Signal has been there since the 7th of April via #bsr...
Attached File  pac96_500fcst_12.2017040716.gif ( 65.23K ) Number of downloads: 1


Along with April 5th via #RRWT...

Attached File(s)
Attached File  170405150100.jpg ( 735.72K ) Number of downloads: 2
 


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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 21 2017, 12:49 PM
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SPC has outlined a day 8 severe weather area, saying there are indications of a "significant severe weather event", and "potential for a higher-end event" next Friday. BSR/SOI/TR have all been hinting at this for a while. But it's looking like this could be the real deal in terms of potential for a big event.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 21 2017, 01:47 PM) *
Unprecedented on MV's index



QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 21 2017, 01:35 PM) *



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 21 2017, 12:52 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 21 2017, 01:38 PM
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180-day precipitation anomalies paint a clear picture of the previous winters' pattern and general expectations for the next 3-6 months. The main caveat to a dry warm season across the far southeast would be tropical activity. I realize it doesn't take a sorcerer to identify there will be thunderstorms across the plains during the warm season, but the point here is I think that convection will be more active than normal across much of the region I have outlined. I may have been too generous across the LA/MS/AL/GA/TN region, but only time will tell. Locations west of the MS valley and north of the OHV should have quite a few storms this season and obviously severe thunderstorms will be above normal in these regions also (observations).

Attached File  4_21_180_day_Precip.png ( 1.05MB ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  4_21_180_day_Forecast.png ( 1.05MB ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Apr 21 2017, 01:43 PM


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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