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> April 19-21 Plains/MW/OV/GL Severe Weather, Long range (6-10 days): Forecasts and Observations
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 13 2017, 12:28 AM
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The active zonal flow regime will break down around the 18th when a shortwave from the Pacific pushes east. GFS has been hinting at major severe weather potential with this shortwave. Timing and track of it are still in question, but it appears ingredients will come together for a noteworthy event - possibly a classic Plains setup.







This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 17 2017, 09:25 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 13 2017, 10:39 AM
Post #2




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06z GFS continues the same kind of setup, including the best warm sector hodograph I've seen all year





--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 13 2017, 11:22 PM
Post #3




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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Well this ain't suspicious... lol.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 13 2017, 11:57 PM
Post #4




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Very active pattern





Mid-upper 60 dew points into SW OH




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 13 2017, 11:58 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 14 2017, 12:16 AM
Post #5




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GEFS absolutely picking up on a very active severe weather pattern for this time frame. 70-75% of the 105 analogs (78 analogs) have at least 1 severe weather report in OK/SE KS/SW MO. 35% (36 analogs) have at least 1 tornado report in NE OK.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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nkovatch85
post Apr 14 2017, 12:34 PM
Post #6




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Well, you don't see a Day 8 risk outlined very often. Will certainly be interesting to watch!

QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A low-amplitude zonal flow pattern is evident early in the extended
period with predictability concerns for severe early in the work
week. By Wednesday (day 6), rich low-level moisture over the
western Gulf Basin will likely become established and indications
suggest an elevated mixed layer will reside over the plateau areas
in the southwest U.S./northern Mexico. Both medium-range
deterministic, time-lagged deterministic, and ensemble data suggest
increasing potential for the development of a trough over the
western U.S. during the Wednesday-Thursday period (days 6-7). While
significant spread in models on the evolution of the trough into the
central U.S. (ejecting shortwaves) are acknowledged given the long
time scales associated with this forecast, there appears to be
increasing probability for severe when a disturbance/mean
longitudinal trough position moves into the central-southern High
Plains. Given what appears to be several factors in a background
sense supporting an increased severe risk [i.e., projected mid-level
wave timing, meteorological (dryline, EML, moisture) and seasonal
climatology], have opted to include a 15% severe risk on Friday (day
8) to highlight severe potential for late in the extended period.
Refinements to the area on Friday (day 8) are an almost certainty in
later outlook updates as well as the possible inclusion of other
potential areas on other days.

..Smith.. 04/14/2017

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I wish every day was either a PDS Tornado Watch or a Blizzard Warning...or both.
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snowlover2
post Apr 14 2017, 02:11 PM
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QUOTE(nkovatch85 @ Apr 14 2017, 01:34 PM) *
Well, you don't see a Day 8 risk outlined very often. Will certainly be interesting to watch!

Can't really remember the last time there was a day 8 area. Guessing more often than not those eventually turn in to enhanced at the very least.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17 Watches:

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:2.0" 12/9/17

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 14 2017, 03:30 PM
Post #8




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I like their reasoning behind the day 8.... lol.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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jdrenken
post Apr 14 2017, 04:03 PM
Post #9




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From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





#organicforecasting has been on it!

Another #soi drop of 15.51 between the 29th and 30th of March. #volatile pattern during the last half of the month is understatement. #SOID https://t.co/0zkJqOcJhm


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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Organicforecasting data
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 15 2017, 12:08 AM
Post #10




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GFS has been relatively consistent with this event





--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 15 2017, 10:48 AM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 21,148
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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE
Looking at a 3-day stretch of severe thunderstorms, with possible tornadoes, across the Southern Plains this upcoming Monday-Wednesday


https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/853224548602445825



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 15 2017, 11:16 AM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 21,148
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453







Oklahoma with the high EHI


North-central KS


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 17 2017, 12:31 AM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Latest runs are definitely picking up on 2 main severe weather areas. Hodograph along the warm front is especially favorable for supercells.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 17 2017, 12:41 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Juniorrr
post Apr 17 2017, 11:11 AM
Post #14




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Looking pretty good for some storms Wed-Thurs. Tornadic threat along the warm front.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Apr 17 2017, 11:12 AM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 17 2017, 06:34 PM
Post #15




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NAM showing a very skinny region with nasty parameters. With this solution, it'd be a relatively localized tornado outbreak, supporting only a couple to a few supercells being able to take advantage of the very tornadic environment.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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jdrenken
post Apr 17 2017, 06:42 PM
Post #16




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From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





Some #organicforecasting tidbits

https://twitter.com/KOPNFMRADIOWX/status/853855437833326592


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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snowlover2
post Apr 17 2017, 07:00 PM
Post #17




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Seems ILN is jumping on board for Thursday.

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
334 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

The patterns in the long term are not patterns in which the
superblend does well, so quite often where there was model agreement
took them as targets of opportunity and went away from the
superblend.

The forecast area will be in between two systems, one to the north
and one to the south, on Wednesday. There is some question on how
much phasing between the two systems will be present, however does
not seem like there will be much. Due to his have limited
precipitation chances to the chance category. There is some
instability so have thunder mention in as well. Southerly flow on
Wednesday will allow for widespread temperatures in the 70s.

On Thursday continued southerly flow will allow for temperatures to
climb into the 70s to low 80s. Model soundings are indicating wind
gusts 30 to 35 mph likely with some higher gusts possible. A cold
front will approach and move through on Thursday. There is decent
instability during the day. Dewpoints are sufficient in the lower
60s. The timing will be favorable although forcing could be better.
Looking at the CIPS Analog guidance there is a very good signal for
severe weather being possible on Thursday. Due to model agreement
and sufficient severe parameters in place, increased precipitation
chances and added severe threat to the HWO for Thursday. Just
mentioned damaging winds and hail, however cannot rule out tornadoes
as well and isolated flooding issues
.


Precipitation will taper off Thursday night and dry conditions will
be in place for Friday. With cool northerly flow and cold air
advection on Friday decreased temperatures from superblend.

An upper level low approaches for the weekend and into the beginning
of next week. This will allow for cool and cloudy conditions along
with scattered showers. The ECMWF is the outlier and brings
precipitation in a lot quicker. Went with the slower solutions and
bring only a chance of precipitation for the day on Saturday and
more likely precipitation Saturday evening into Sunday. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday, but due to the isolated
nature left out of the forecast at this time. Precipitation will
gradually taper off Sunday night into Monday. Went cooler than
superblend on temperatures through this time.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17 Watches:

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:2.0" 12/9/17

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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JDStormsWx
post Apr 17 2017, 09:20 PM
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Probably should change the dates of this thread to 19-21..
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 17 2017, 09:58 PM
Post #19




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Sounding for south-central OK at 12z Friday... one of the regions likely most affected by the event

Lots of elevated instability north of the warm front. Yikes.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 17 2017, 11:02 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 21,148
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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Apr 17 2017, 08:00 PM) *
Seems ILN is jumping on board for Thursday.

Looking like your typical OV slight risk... storms quickly becoming linear

Funny to say... it's almost toward the end of April and this would be our first slight risk. rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 17 2017, 11:04 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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