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> April 19-21 Plains/MW/OV/GL Severe Weather, Long range (6-10 days): Forecasts and Observations
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 18 2017, 08:44 PM
Post #41




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Highlighting a small area for relatively high tornado potential tomorrow



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 18 2017, 08:48 PM
Post #42




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From: Athens, Ohio
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HRRR and RAP both showing impressive potential at the end of their runs




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 18 2017, 10:49 PM
Post #43




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 19,306
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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





HRRR providing eye candy in NAMs place




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 18 2017, 10:50 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 18 2017, 10:54 PM
Post #44




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 19,306
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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Cells are popping courtesy of WAA ahead of the developing low



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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JDStormsWx
post Apr 18 2017, 11:39 PM
Post #45




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Consistency on GFS w/ Friday still..
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 18 2017, 11:47 PM
Post #46




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Athens, Ohio
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 18 2017, 11:54 PM) *
Cells are popping courtesy of WAA ahead of the developing low


2/5" hail report just came in

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 19 2017, 12:16 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 19 2017, 12:38 AM
Post #47




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Latest HRRR...





It has discrete convection north of I70. I expect at least some of these to be severe, but I don't think it'll be a widespread severe event.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 19 2017, 12:56 AM
Post #48




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,306
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453







QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT WED APR 19 2017

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

..SUMMARY

SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. FARTHER SOUTHWEST,
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

..SYNOPSIS

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN ITS WAKE, SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. FARTHER WEST, A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ROCKIES,
EVENTUALLY REACHING THE HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

..PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, A MID-LEVEL WESTERLY JET MAXIMUM (AROUND 70-80 KT) WILL
OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE REGION. IN TANDEM WITH THIS IMPULSE, A
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN, WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO TRANSPORT DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
NORTHWARD TO PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND VICINITY. WITH MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COOLING, MLCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN, EVENTUALLY PROGRESSING ACROSS
PARTS OF OHIO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIALLY,
SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KT MAY FAVOR A
FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS. THEREAFTER, A RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO BOWING SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO AS CELLS
MOVE EAST.

..PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

AS THE WESTERN US TROUGH APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE
PERIOD, AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER WEST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WILL
ENCOURAGE INCREASING CONVECTION FROM THE PANHANDLES EASTWARD TO THE
OZARK PLATEAU. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 40-50 KT WILL LIKELY FAVOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS ROOTED
ABOVE A SURFACE STABLE LAYER. IN TURN, SEVERAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
STRONGEST ASCENT LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA, CONFIDENCE IN LARGE HAIL IS HIGHEST HERE, SUCH
THAT A SLIGHT RISK IS INTRODUCED.


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 19 2017, 12:57 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 19 2017, 01:06 AM
Post #49




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





5% tornado, 30% hail, 15% wind



QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT WED APR 19 2017

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSOURI
VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

..SUMMARY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY/MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A WARM FRONT SETS
UP ACROSS IOWA. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. A CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, THE CAP IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT. IN
RESPONSE, CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE IN WESTERN IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, EXPANDING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT, THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, DEVELOPING A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET FROM
NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA AS A 60 TO 70 KT
MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL
JETS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL. IT APPEARS THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF IOWA WHERE
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH
0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 400 M2/S2 SUGGESTING TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF CELLS CAN CROSS THE WARM FRONT
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
FORECAST DUE TO BACKED SURFACE WINDS. WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR
WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS, MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THE 40
TO 50 KT RANGE SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THIS COMBINED
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL
WITH ROTATING STORMS. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.

..SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN REACHING NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO AT 00Z/THURSDAY SHOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS
NEAR 60 F, MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG, ALONG WITH 25 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH THE
STRONGER MULTICELLS ALONG THE FRONT. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 19 2017, 01:16 AM
Post #50




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,306
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Early look at the evening






--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 19 2017, 01:25 AM
Post #51




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 19,306
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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





18-36 hour experimental HRRR is pretty nasty. Definitely showing a couple warm front-crossing supercells.





This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 19 2017, 01:27 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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WeatherMonger
post Apr 19 2017, 08:34 AM
Post #52




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 20,960
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





10% tornado area added, hatched and 30% hail

Attached Image


Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO MUCH OF IOWA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
few tornadoes will be possible from the central Plains to the upper
Mississippi Valley mainly from mid-afternoon into tonight.

...Central Plains/middle MO Valley to upper MS Valley...
Embedded within a moderately strong belt of west-southwesterly
mid-level winds, water vapor imagery features an eastward-moving
shortwave trough from WY into the north-central High Plains. This
impulse will continue east-northeastward and reach the Upper Midwest
tonight.

To the north of a roughly west/east-oriented front, bands of
convection (strong in some cases) are ongoing this morning across
eastern NE into southern IA and northwest IL. A few of the stronger
cores could produce hail this morning mainly from far eastern NE
into western IA. On the southern fringes of this early-day
convection and related cloud cover, the air mass is expected to
become moderately unstable (1500-2000 J per kg MLCAPE) late this
afternoon. This will especially be the case across southeast
NE/northeast KS ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, and
across IA near and south of a northward-shifting warm front. Current
thinking is that surface-based thunderstorms will initially develop
by mid/late afternoon across east/southeast NE and northeast KS into
far western IA.

Very steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate buoyancy and
supercell-favorable wind profiles will support the possibility of
large hail. A tornado risk will also exist late this afternoon into
early/mid-evening, particularly across west/central IA in vicinity
of the northward-spreading effective warm front, where near-50-kt
winds around 1-2 km AGL will contribute to 0-1 km SRH on the order
of 250-300 m2/s2.

As forcing for ascent and low/mid-level winds increase, storms will
expand east/northeastward during the evening and overnight into
additional parts of IA, southern MN and the adjacent upper MS Valley
vicinity, including both elevated storms capable of hail and
near-surface-based storms capable of damaging winds/brief tornado
risk near the north/northeastward-shifting warm front.

Farther south, other severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
locally damaging winds will persist this evening into the overnight
across KS into western/northern MO near and ahead of the
southeastward-moving cold front.

...Southern Great Lakes to upper OH Valley...
Additional moistening will occur across the region today in advance
of a slow-southeastward-moving front. A weak westerlies-embedded
impulse, related to convection near the IA/IL Quad Cities this
morning, will continue eastward today and have at least some
influence on increasing diurnal convective development this
afternoon from northeast IL into northern portions of IN and OH.
Sufficient heating and destabilization in the presence of around 35
kt of effective shear may support storms capable of isolated severe
hail and locally damaging winds.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 04/19/2017
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WeatherMonger
post Apr 19 2017, 10:17 AM
Post #53




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Posts: 20,960
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Forbes has a more pronounced SE hook to the severe area. Been cloudy all day so not expecting anything at all

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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 19 2017, 11:02 AM
Post #54




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,306
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453







--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Juniorrr
post Apr 19 2017, 12:40 PM
Post #55




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Posts: 11,402
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





HRRR has a bowing system riding the warm front N. OH into SW PA with the tail popping some training-cells in central-north central OH.


--------------------
Snowfall to date
12/13/16 - 5"
1/5/17 - 3"
1/27/17 - 0.25" dusting
2/8/17 - 1.25"
3/13/17 - just about 1.0"
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jdrenken
post Apr 19 2017, 02:15 PM
Post #56




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Posts: 37,802
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From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





Note how the ENH was creeping farther west with each update?


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






Organicforecasting Blog
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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Stannum
post Apr 19 2017, 03:29 PM
Post #57




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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Apr 19 2017, 02:15 PM) *
Note how the ENH was creeping farther west with each update?


Even closer to me!
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snowlover2
post Apr 19 2017, 03:32 PM
Post #58




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New tornado watch.
Attached Image
QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 148
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
320 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest Iowa
Northwest Missouri
East central and southeast Nebraska

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 320 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop in the next 1-2
hours across southeast Nebraska, and then storms will spread
eastward into Iowa and extreme northwest Missouri through this
evening. The storm environment will favor semi-discrete supercells
capable of producing isolated very large hail and a few tornadoes,
as well as isolated damaging gusts.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Omaha NE to
30 miles southeast of Beatrice NE. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:2

# of T-Storm Warnings:5

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 19 2017, 04:08 PM
Post #59




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,306
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Amount of SRH is very impressive... get a discrete supercell, that sucker is gonna produce.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 19 2017, 05:07 PM
Post #60




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,306
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





and we have liftoff
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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