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> April 24-26 MidAtl/NE Coastal, forecast, discussions & OBS
telejunkie
post Apr 18 2017, 06:56 AM
Post #1




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A trough that cuts-off from the mean flow looks to help develop a SLP along the coast in this timeframe. Modest agreement between GFS & Euro at this point. Mainly a rain maker unless it becomes strong enough to force down some colder air for inland regions to see some wintery precip. Late season storm...here we go!

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Apr 18 2017, 02:06 PM


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
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telejunkie
post Apr 18 2017, 02:14 PM
Post #2




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looks to be fairly disjointed with two separate pieces of energy on the 12z Euro & GFS runs. 12z CMC has the best looking coastal storm while GFS-p is the fastest with keeping the trough moving east and furthest north.
12z Canadian
Attached Image

12z GFS-p
Attached Image


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
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MaineJay
post Apr 19 2017, 05:09 AM
Post #3




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From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





After all the snow this winter it's surprising that we could really use a little rain. In fact, fire danger is a bit high even.

The snow was absolutely obliterated over the past week, to the point that "mud season" was very brief, even non existent in many ways.



--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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telejunkie
post Apr 19 2017, 10:50 AM
Post #4




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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Apr 19 2017, 06:09 AM) *
After all the snow this winter it's surprising that we could really use a little rain. In fact, fire danger is a bit high even.

The snow was absolutely obliterated over the past week, to the point that "mud season" was very brief, even non existent in many ways.

Last night our dept was asked to burn a hillside field that had become brushy...thought it maybe an easy burn, but just too much green here already. It got going for a bit, but quickly died down once the 1-hour fuels had been burned through.
Attached Image
definitely nothing that exciting to report on the storm front...


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 19 2017, 06:13 PM
Post #5




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From: Millersville, PA
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Not sure where to really post this since I guess we only focus on the bigger storms, but it looks like the showers and even thunderstorms across the OH/ western PA region will move through most of PA tonight may not bring severe but it will certainly bring some rain with it. I for one will say I can not wait until the rain comes through to help clean up the air a little from all the pollen from the past couple weeks. The last substantial rain was april 6th for most of the area. There have been some pop up showers and I believe even a storm down here at BWI. Hopefully this coastal actually becomes something and brings rain as many know we are in a drought and quickly coming to the time of year where we rely on thunderstorms for our precip, never a good thing.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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phillyfan
post Apr 19 2017, 06:19 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 19 2017, 07:13 PM) *
Not sure where to really post this since I guess we only focus on the bigger storms, but it looks like the showers and even thunderstorms across the OH/ western PA region will move through most of PA tonight may not bring severe but it will certainly bring some rain with it. I for one will say I can not wait until the rain comes through to help clean up the air a little from all the pollen from the past couple weeks. The last substantial rain was april 6th for most of the area. There have been some pop up showers and I believe even a storm down here at BWI. Hopefully this coastal actually becomes something and brings rain as many know we are in a drought and quickly coming to the time of year where we rely on thunderstorms for our precip, never a good thing.

The Sunday rain storm threat has gone south the past 2 runs of the GFS. South of the mason dixon line that is. Boom first post sine the 6th of April....


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

90 Degree Days: 13 / Heat Waves: 3
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 19 2017, 07:16 PM
Post #7




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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Apr 19 2017, 07:19 PM) *
The Sunday rain storm threat has gone south the past 2 runs of the GFS. South of the mason dixon line that is. Boom first post sine the 6th of April....


Will see looks like a coast to coast situation with the area coming in around northern/central Cali it should in a sense go off the VA coast region so may not be a deluge but will have to see how it goes. I hate to even bring up the idea but we may see something tropical towards the end of the month that has been showing up with the ridging across the NE?? We will see not holding my breath but that would be an interesting way to break the drought this year.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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MaineJay
post Apr 20 2017, 04:36 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 19 2017, 08:16 PM) *
Will see looks like a coast to coast situation with the area coming in around northern/central Cali it should in a sense go off the VA coast region so may not be a deluge but will have to see how it goes. I hate to even bring up the idea but we may see something tropical towards the end of the month that has been showing up with the ridging across the NE?? We will see not holding my breath but that would be an interesting way to break the drought this year.



Models aren't terribly consistent, but the idea of something moving up the coast is certainly supported in many ways. Not a wicked strong system depicted at this time, but bears watching.

ECMWF
19.12z euro track (waiting for more recent runs to update)
Attached Image


20.0z looks a bit more threatening to the coast
Attached Image


20.0z UKie

Attached Image


20.0z GEFS least impressed
Attached Image


This post has been edited by MaineJay: Apr 20 2017, 04:37 AM


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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MaineJay
post Apr 20 2017, 06:12 AM
Post #9




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European ensembles don't seem to support the operational

Attached Image



--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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telejunkie
post Apr 20 2017, 08:37 AM
Post #10




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So GFS has this storm exit the Rockies and head to Tulsa...then Bowling Green, KY...then take a SE to fully a S trajectory, exiting the coast around Charleston and stopping to visit The Donald in Mar-a-Lago...might hamper his daily golfing plans. Seemingly the GFS struggling with what energy to focus on...


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
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phillyfan
post Apr 20 2017, 10:46 AM
Post #11




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From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 19 2017, 08:16 PM) *
Will see looks like a coast to coast situation with the area coming in around northern/central Cali it should in a sense go off the VA coast region so may not be a deluge but will have to see how it goes. I hate to even bring up the idea but we may see something tropical towards the end of the month that has been showing up with the ridging across the NE?? We will see not holding my breath but that would be an interesting way to break the drought this year.

Well last night's rain out in western PA went poof overnight... Let's see if we can get something tonight, it is a better chance then last night. unsure.gif Sunday system was still south of the mason dixon line on this mornings GFS run.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

90 Degree Days: 13 / Heat Waves: 3
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Undertakerson
post Apr 21 2017, 05:14 AM
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Member No.: 21,746





CTP

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
With a cut off low progged to form over the Mid-MS and TN
Valleys this weekend, it is very difficult to be certain in many
facets of forecast.
The differences in model solutions show up
even before the long term starts - as the NAM is farther to the
north with precip than all other models. While this is usually
cause to discount that one outlier, the close time horizon makes
me think we should give it some creedence.
In general, the flat
flow aloft in place before the low gets to our longitude should
keep most of the precip to our south. Then, the changes from the
last forecast cycle get quite substantial. The low creeps
northward as it swings to the east of GA and keeps just off the
coast early in the week and may precip in off the ocean a`la a
Nor`easter. However, this storm does not deepen, nor slow
without a big high to the north
.
A frontal boundary should
remain to our north/west for much of the week, but may creep
close enough to make showers/storms. Warm air then seems to
establish itself once again pushing temps near/above 80 late in
the week. ([b]UTS edit
- posted about this - the WPC outlook, over in MJ's "warmth" thread)
[/b]
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MaineJay
post Apr 21 2017, 07:21 AM
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ECMWF ensemble tracks

Attached Image


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 23 2017, 03:44 AM
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Looks like we may see something after all nothing substantial but none the less some rain. The heaviest should fall in a big portion of NC, as outlined by the watches, but the surface and upper level feature will still track NE off the coast and bring with it rains across the area. I would say about 1" seems reasonable across the area with maybe more as you head toward the coast it depends on how far NW that surface front comes back to allow low level moisture to sneak in.

It is good to see areas to the south of us seeing rain this could help with our chances down the road.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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MaineJay
post Apr 24 2017, 07:02 AM
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12km NAM precip
Attached Image


3km NAM precip
Attached Image


WPC
Attached Image


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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telejunkie
post Apr 24 2017, 09:52 AM
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Albany's disco and 12z NAM total precip
"Widespread rainfall and much cooler temperatures for Tuesday.

A surface low has developed along the southeast coast in response
to an upper level low moving across the southeastern United
States which is separated from the mean flow. The system will
become vertically stacked by tonight as it begin to move head
northward up the coast. Ridging across our region to the north
of the low will strengthen tonight into Tuesday morning as it
gradually retreats. The air mass in place across the region is
very dry which can see on the 00Z upper air soundings from last
night with a precipitable water values of only 0.31 inches here
at Albany and 0.26 inches at both Upton/Brookhaven Long Island
and Chatham MA.

So despite the developing onshore flow off the Atlantic it will
take time for the atmosphere to moisten up and for rain to move
in. Have slowed the onset and spread of the rainfall across the
area with it mainly occurring Tuesday morning with clouds on
the increase thickening and lowering tonight. The low will move
northward up the coast as a trough digs across the central CONUS
through mid week. This will keep the low close to the coast. As
the low approaches and its associated low level jet moves in
and across the region rain will continue through Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning especially east of the Hudson River
Valley. Conditions should gradually improve on Wednesday. QPF
amounts are anticipated to range from about a third of an inch
to around an inch across the forecast area from northwest to
southeast through Wednesday.

It will cool Tuesday with highs only in the upper 40s to mid
50s with the rain. Temperatures are expected to rebound to
seasonable levels Wednesday."

Nice rains for the parched regions of NC & VA
Attached Image


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
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MaineJay
post Apr 24 2017, 10:06 AM
Post #17




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Member No.: 28,288





Last couple mornings have begun just above freezing, but yesterday was mid 60s and it's sunny and pushing 60 feels sublime following the few days of 30s and drizzle we had.

PWATs are juicing up.

Attached Image


Attached Image

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimi.../natl/main.html


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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telejunkie
post Apr 24 2017, 01:37 PM
Post #18




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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Apr 24 2017, 11:06 AM) *

Love those time-lapse PWAT images...atmosphere has some serious moistening to do...


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
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NorEaster07
post Apr 24 2017, 05:30 PM
Post #19




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From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





NICE view here! Edit::: Our rain maker in progress.


Goes16 Hi Res Satellite loop. Upper Low Spinning down south.


Lots of rain for Carolinas.

BTW -- Bridgeport, CT needs 1.84" this month to enter top 10 wettest Aprils.




Atlanta struggled past 50s today. Near what the normal low is.

2:30pm map

Attached Image

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NorEaster07
post Apr 24 2017, 08:04 PM
Post #20




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It's coming. #Rain

Loop last 4hrs. 5-9pm






Nothing big but maybe some local spots will get 2"+?


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