Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Profile
Personal Photo
Rating
 
Options
Options
Personal Statement
snowlover2 doesn't have a personal statement currently.
Personal Info
snowlover2
Rank: F5 Superstorm
40 years old
Male
Dayton,OH
Born July-30-1976
Interests
No Information
Statistics
Joined: 30-December 08
Profile Views: 45,416*
Last Seen: Today, 10:03 PM
Viewing Forum: Current Weather - United States
Local Time: May 22 2017, 11:04 PM
16,288 posts (5 per day)
Contact Information
AIM No Information
Yahoo No Information
ICQ No Information
MSN No Information
Contact Private
* Profile views updated each hour

snowlover2

Member

***


Topics
Posts
Comments
Friends
My Content
11 May 2017
Next severe threat for the area. SPC has a day 6 area outlined but mentions possibilities on day 5 and 7-8.
Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains...

Severe probabilities will increase early to middle of next week. The
western trough, centered from near the Pacific Northwest coast to
just offshore the southern CA coast will pivot east toward the Great
Basin by Monday. Some isolated severe threat may develop in the
vicinity of the TX Panhandle. However, uncertainty is still fairly
high with guidance varying in timing and placement of any ejecting
shortwave impulse.

...Day 6/Tue - Southern/Central Plains...

Guidance has become more consistent in ejecting a stronger shortwave
impulse across the southern Rockies and into the Plains on Tuesday.
Rich boundary layer moisture will have had enough time to surge
northward ahead of this feature while a lee low deepens over the
northern/central Plains. Confidence in an organized severe threat
developing in the vicinity of a dryline across parts of central KS
into western/central OK and perhaps the eastern TX Panhandle into
north TX has increased enough to introduce 15% probabilities. The
severe threat may extend further north into the mid-MO Valley ahead
of the eastward progressing surface cyclone, but confidence in
quality moisture that far north is low at this time.

...Day 7-8/Wed-Thu - Southern/Central Plains to the South-Central
States and the Upper Great Lakes...

The severe threat may shift east into parts of the Ozarks/ArkLaTex
on Wednesday. Guidance suggest another subtle shortwave impulse may
eject northeast across central TX into AR, but disparities in timing
and intensity of this feature will preclude introduction of
probabilities at this time. Additionally, a threat may extend
eastward across parts of the upper Great Lakes ahead of the
approaching surface low. This is dependent again on quality of
moisture, and what may evolve upstream on Day 6/Tuesday.

Likewise, a severe threat may continue across parts of the southern
and central Plains into the south-central states on Thursday. Larger
height falls will push eastward as the western trough begins an
eastward push, and strong southwesterly flow will overspread much of
the region. However, details in timing and location vary and
confidence is too low to introduce probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 05/11/2017
2 Apr 2017
SPC has a day 4 area highlighted for Wednesday from the southern half of Ohio and south. Saying higher probs are probable in later outlooks.

Attached Image

QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Organized severe thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast into the Mid Atlantic Coast
region this coming Wednesday into Thursday...

Amplification within the westerlies across the Pacific coast into
the Plains by the middle of this week appears likely to shift
eastward through the Atlantic Seaboard by next weekend. Models
suggest that this will support the continuing development of a broad
deep lower/mid tropospheric cyclone through the Ohio Valley into the
Northeast. Rapid substantive moisture return to the warm sector of
the cyclone appears possible in the wake of a previous cyclone,
initially along a developing warm frontal zone across parts of
Alabama and Georgia by early Wednesday, closer to the cyclone center
across the Ohio Valley by Wednesday evening, and across the Mid
Atlantic Coast region by Thursday. Associated destabilization in
the presence of favorable large-scale forcing for ascent and
strengthening low-level and deep layer shear is expected to support
considerable organized severe weather potential, including evolving
storm clusters and discrete supercell activity. Severe wind gusts
and tornadoes will be possible with strongest activity, along with a
risk for large hail. It seems probable that areas of higher severe
probabilities will be required in subsequent outlooks for this time
frame.

The pattern is expected to remain progressive, but may trend more
zonal next weekend into early next week, with short wave development
and associated severe weather potential becoming more unclear.

..Kerr.. 04/02/2017
18 Mar 2017
So not sure if anyone else noticed but it seems both NAM and GFS and to a lesser extent the GGEM (and maybe Euro but not sure) are showing a system track across the TN valley with it getting cold enough on the northern edge for accumulating snow.

18z GFS
Attached Image


18z NAM
Attached Image
8 Mar 2017
This is for the early week clipper system being shown. I thought it should be kept separate from the other thread.
2 Mar 2017
This is for the next weak clipper/disturbance being shown for tomorrow into Saturday.
Last Visitors


17 Apr 2017 - 9:37


8 Mar 2017 - 23:33


7 Mar 2017 - 22:33


3 Mar 2017 - 9:05


23 Feb 2017 - 19:59

Comments
coach
like your posts!
15 Jan 2010 - 13:53

Friends
There are no friends to display.
RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 22nd May 2017 - 10:04 PM