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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Manchester, VT (elev 800')
Joined: 8-December 09
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Last Seen: 28th April 2017 - 12:33 PM
Local Time: Apr 30 2017, 08:43 AM
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28 Apr 2017
A deep anamolous trough looks to dig hard into the eastern CONUS, possibly all the way to the GOM bringing a SLP up out of the Gulf across the SE and possibly up the east coast. Could go without saying with this crowd...but a lot of disagreement if this tracks overland or over water, if the trough cuts off and trough orientation.
Both 0z GFS and CMC have the trough going negative earlier with a more explosive surface storm, also cutting the upper low off, allowing the storm to virtually stall. 0z Euro was much more progressive with the trough, keeping more positively tilted and not allowing explosive surface development.
Not many questions regarding p-type here unless maybe your trying to hike Mount Washington, NH....or Mount Marcy, NY. These spots though are well known to get snowstorms in late May & even June though...
I'll just post one 0z GEFS image...
18 Apr 2017
A trough that cuts-off from the mean flow looks to help develop a SLP along the coast in this timeframe. Modest agreement between GFS & Euro at this point. Mainly a rain maker unless it becomes strong enough to force down some colder air for inland regions to see some wintery precip. Late season storm...here we go!
7 Mar 2017
Considering this is a separate trough as the Saturday-Sunday event, surprised nobody has started this a thread yet for this wave. Euro has been moderately aggressive with this trough gaining a neutral trough as it crosses through the OV sending the surface low on a track from Des Moines, IA towards Albany. 12z GFS seemed like it's coming around to the idea...little more dig, more moisture and there could be a nice stripe of white this lays down
11 Jan 2017
Thought since we are at 49F today and should top 50F tomorrow, then a brief return to normal temps before Pacific air really takes hold across the country…figure may as well talk about it.
21 Dec 2016
Decided high time to open up discussion on what has potential to become as storm for the NE/MA region. Still pretty up in the air how it plays out, but no doubt that it seems to usher in what could be some bone chilling cold to start the new year. Big differences at the 12z globals both with time and strength of the trough…gfs has a very progressive trough swing through with slight surface reflection and not much more than a cold frontal passage:
Euro on the other hand has a much deeper trough that goes negative tilt fairly early, but it spawns a coastal storm. I don't have much info about how this translates at the surface directly, but seems to be a slop storm for many…
Hopefully we find some common ground in the middle with a trough that goes negative a little later than Euro depicts it...
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