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joseph507123
Rank: F5 Superstorm
19 years old
Male
South Central Minnesota
Born Nov-16-1997
Interests
weather, sports, tech

ALL TIME WEATHER THINGS

Strongest winds: 84 mph
Largest hail: 1''
Tornadoes: 1
Highest temperature: 102F
Highest dew point: 82F
Highest heat index: 125F
Coldest temperature: -26F
Coldest wind chill: -43F
Most snow: 18''
Most rain: 5.5''

[b]2017[/b]

[color="#FF8C00"]Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 8[/color]

[color="#FF0000"]Tornado Watches: 4[/color]

[color="#FFA500"]Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1[/color]

[color="#FF0000"]Tornado Warnings: 0[/color]

[color="#0000FF"]Largest hail: 1''[/color]

[color="#8B0000"]Warmest Temperature: 99F[/color]

[color="#000000"]90F+ days: 21[/color]

[color="#FFA500"]Highest Heat Index: 116F[/color]

2016-2017 Winter

Winter Storm Warnings: 3

Blizzard Warnings: 1

Windchill Warnings: 1

Largest snowfall: 11.5''

Seasonal snowfall: 24''

Coldest temperature: -26F

Coldest windchill: -40F

Tornado Watches: 1
Statistics
Joined: 20-January 12
Profile Views: 6,056*
Last Seen: Today, 10:52 AM
Local Time: Oct 19 2017, 11:17 AM
503 posts (0 per day)
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joseph507123

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17 Jul 2017
An active week coming up.



QUOTE
SPC AC 170549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL PA TO
VT...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN VA
TO NH...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF AZ...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from
South Dakota into northern Minnesota, and during the day from
Pennsylvania into New York and Vermont. Isolated severe storms are
expected from Wyoming into Nebraska, across the Appalachians, and
across southern Arizona.

...Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley...

Strong mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to progress across
AB/SK into MB by 18/00z. This feature will flatten upper ridge over
the northern Plains/upper MS Valley as weak height falls spread
along the international border. Associated surface front should
surge across much of ND by early afternoon with a pre-convective
frontal position expected to extend from near INL, southwest into
central SD at peak heating. Latest model guidance suggests strong
boundary-layer heating will result in surface temperatures soaring
through the upper 90s to near 100F across SD into extreme western MN
which should remove CIN as convective temperatures are breached.
While large-scale forcing for ascent should primarily spread across
southern Canada, frontal forcing and strong surface heating should
result in isolated thunderstorm development after 21z from northwest
MN into central SD. Forecast soundings suggest initial activity may
be high based within veered southwesterly low-level flow. However,
modest mid-high level flow should allow this activity to mature
downstream across MN where buoyancy is forecast to be considerably
higher due to more moist boundary layer. A few supercells could
evolve across northern portions of the SLGT risk where surface-6km
bulk shear is forecast to be on the order of 35kt. Damaging
winds/large hail are the primary severe threats with this activity.

...PA to Southern VT...

Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level
trough digging east-southeast across the Great Lakes/OH Valley
region. Latest model guidance suggests this feature will extend
across western NY/PA at 18z with modest southwesterly high-level
flow expected to extend downstream into southern New England at peak
heating. Relatively cool 500mb temperatures (-10 to -12C) will
overspread much of the northeastern US during the afternoon which
should aid destabilization as surface temperatures warm. Forecast
soundings suggest thunderstorms that develop across this region
could be robust with isolated damaging winds and marginally severe
hail being the primary severe threats.

...AZ...

Subtle day-to-day changes will continue across the southwestern US
early this week as center of upper ridge holds near the Four-corners
region. Convection will once again be modulated by daytime heating
and orographic influences as PW values remain seasonally high with
little notable drying. For these reasons, scattered strong
thunderstorms should develop across the higher terrain during the
late afternoon then propagate toward lower elevations where gusty
winds will be possible, especially if convection organizes due to
adequate cold-pool development.




QUOTE
SPC AC 170605

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK...AND EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on
Tuesday mainly across the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley
area.

...Synopsis...
With upper ridging expected to evolve across the central U.S. day
2/Tuesday, faster flow aloft will be generally confined to the
northern tier of the country, on the southern fringe of a northern
Canada vortex.

At the surface, a cold front moving across Ontario and Quebec will
trail southwestward across the upper Great Lakes region and into the
Plains, and westward into the Intermountain region. As the front
shifts southeast across the north central U.S. with time, it is
expected to serve as a focus for diurnal convective development.

...Mid-Missouri Valley east-northeast to Wisconsin...
A cluster of thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the
period, spreading east across the northern Plains in a zone of
quasi-geostrophic ascent associated with weak short-wave troughing
ejecting from the northern high Plains. Meanwhile, diurnal
heating/destabilization near/ahead of the advancing cold front
suggests that storms should increase during the afternoon, possibly
evolving into one or more bands of strong/locally severe storms --
aided by fast westerly flow aloft (mid-level flow near 60 kt). Atop
low-level flow with some southerly component, shear will support
rotating updrafts. However, with storm mode expected to trend
toward bands through the afternoon and into the evening, hail and
locally damaging winds would appear to be the main severe risks.
Still, a tornado or two could occur in conjunction with any
stronger/rotating cell. Risk should diminish into the overnight
hours in conjunction with diurnal cooling/stabilization of the
boundary layer.
19 Jun 2017
Looks like another active week in the middle of the country.

8 Jun 2017


...DISCUSSION...
Large-scale pattern may become more favorable for organized severe
thunderstorms early next week, especially across portions of the
northern, and perhaps central, Plains.

Medium-range guidance is in fairly good agreement during the day4-5
time frame with diverging solutions in respect to large-scale
features and timing beyond Monday. In the wake of a strong mid-level
speed max Sunday, heights are forecast to rise across the upper MS
Valley and upper Great Lakes region. While significant buoyancy may
linger near a stalled frontal zone across this region, rising
heights are a bit troubling regarding the potential for organized
severe storms. Even so, low-level warm advection into this corridor
should aid the potential for robust thunderstorms. Will not
introduce 15% severe probs due to the large-scale height rises but
isolated severe is certainly a possibility with warm advection-type
storms that evolve in the MN/WI vicinity.

By day5 a more significant large-scale trough will shift east into
the Great Basin as a strong 500mb speed max rounds the base of the
trough and ejects toward WY/CO. Strongly diffluent flow aloft across
the northern High Plains suggests favorable venting for significant
convection near the Black Hills into southeast MT. Scattered severe
thunderstorms appear possible across this region Monday.

Beyond day5, an ejecting short-wave trough should advance into the
northern/central plains which could induce severe convection across
this region. However, models begin to diverge in their solutions by
mid week and predictability is a bit too low to warrant 15% severe
probs in the day6-8 time frame.
12 Jul 2012
There is a slight risk for severe storms today and tomorrow across the Midwest and plains.

Today (12th)


Tomorrow (13th)
6 Jun 2012
I was on here this morning when all of a sudden the posts are not visible. I have to click the post to see it. Can anyone help me out with fixing this?

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7 Sep 2017 - 16:25


23 Jan 2012 - 10:45


20 Jan 2012 - 16:14

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