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Please just refer to me by my first name, Peter. I'm 22 years old, from West Chester, Ohio. As of Fall 2015, I'm a student at Ohio University studying Meteorology. I'm specifically interested in severe weather and tornadoes.
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ClicheVortex2014
Rank: F5 Superstorm
24 years old
Male
Athens, Ohio
Born June-30-1993
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Joined: 21-April 14
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Last Seen: Yesterday, 11:06 PM
Local Time: Apr 22 2018, 02:04 PM
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ClicheVortex2014

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17 Apr 2018
The SPC has had a 15% area delineated since day 7, but I haven't made a thread for it because the potential didn't look that great or widespread.

To an extent, not much has changed there. Still expecting a relatively weak system with modest low-level winds and a narrow warm sector.

On the positive side, there's 1000-1500 CAPE showing up on GFS and good vertical shear. In my opinion, one of the days that SPC hasn't delineated yet has the greatest potential; the 21st seems to be the day where all ingredients come together the best. The warm sector actually has everything in place for tornadoes, only thing that would heighten the threat is stronger low-level winds and more instability. Low-level winds might get taken care of with the nocturnal LLJ, and higher instability may be getting missed by GFS (not unheard of).

The 20th



21st


12 Apr 2018
Mid-upper 70's and sun forecast for the next 3 days. Right now in Athens it's 75 degrees with 24% humidity and 15-20 MPH sustained winds... max gust 33 MPH right now.

Under a fire weather watch, wouldn't be surprised if they upgrade to a red flag warning.

30 Mar 2018
For the 44th anniversary of the original Super Outbreak, some tornado sirens might be blaring for areas that were devastated.

A pretty weak/subtle shortwave is going to impact the Midwest. Due to a strong cap that prohibited severe weather in the southern Plains the day before, a solid EML plume is expected to spread into the OV over a marginally moist and strongly sheared environment





There'll be plenty of shear to get organized storms... the entire warm sector has pretty good vertical shear.


Here's a sounding from northern KY. Main inhibiting factors here are the dry air aloft and there's a little bit of VBV. Otherwise shear looks good, CAPE is a bit marginal but I believe it would be enough for a tornado threat.


As usual, GFS is known to underestimate moisture content, so take that sounding for what it's worth.
25 Mar 2018
Marginal risk for severe weather today in the southern Plains... slight risks for the next 3 days.

Todays marginal risk includes places along the OK/TX border, where storm coverage may be isolated but any cells that do pop can produce >2" hail.
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23 Mar 2018
A trough is dipping down into the west US, causing a high risk for excessive rainfall in California. This same system will later cut off from the jet stream and barely move. This will create a relatively long duration SW flow aloft regime. Energy will eject off the trough, causing multiple rounds of thunderstorms. A strong southeasterly high and northern US low will focus moisture return in a specific region. If you know the central US's weather, you should be able to guess who will get crushed.



Severe weather is probable in this regime... especially early on before clouds and rain contaminates the warm sector. However, there's bad model agreement and on some of the models the profiles look quite dry and potentially capped... so I'll hold off on opening a thread for that until things get resolved.
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