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Please just refer to me by my first name, Peter. I'm 22 years old, from West Chester, Ohio. As of Fall 2015, I'm a student at Ohio University studying Meteorology. I'm specifically interested in severe weather and tornadoes.
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ClicheVortex2014
Rank: F5 Superstorm
23 years old
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Dayton, Ohio
Born June-30-1993
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ClicheVortex2014

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20 Apr 2017
GFS and Euro are showing some major severe weather potential associated with a large longwave trough that has numerous shortwaves rotating around it. Seasonably rich moisture (if not slightly unseasonal) will be present in the warm sector... looking at multiple rounds of severe weather.






13 Apr 2017
The active zonal flow regime will break down around the 18th when a shortwave from the Pacific pushes east. GFS has been hinting at major severe weather potential with this shortwave. Timing and track of it are still in question, but it appears ingredients will come together for a noteworthy event - possibly a classic Plains setup.





11 Apr 2017
A zonal flow will set up across the US, and disturbances will roll along the flow and create conditions favorable for lee cyclogenesis multiple times. This thread is for that regime, as long as it holds. GFS suggests a meaningful break in the pattern will occur around day 5-7 with a Pacific system pushing through the country, then a larger trough will make landfall in the west creating a much different pattern. Right now it looks like it may be a northwest flow pattern and/or a west trough/east ridge.





Here's the break in the pattern. Notice the shortwave in the Midwest and the longwave out west. I'm going to refrain from making a thread for the shortwave until there's more talk about it.


3 Apr 2017
And the streak of significant severe weather events continues...



QUOTE
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THROUGH GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SURROUNDING
AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST...NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS
SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Southeast,
northward along and west of the Appalachians into the Ohio Valley,
on Wednesday. This will include the risk for storms capable of
producing tornadoes, at least a couple of which may be strong.

...Synopsis...
Amplification within the westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude
Pacific appears likely to gradually translate across and east of the
Rockies during this period. As large-scale ridging builds across
the U.S. Rockies and Canadian Prairies, large-scale downstream
troughing is forecast to continue to evolve from the Plains eastward
into the vicinity of the Appalachians by 12Z Thursday. A lower/mid
tropospheric cyclone associated with an initial significant
perturbation turning northeast of the southern Rockies on Tuesday,
appears likely migrate northeast of the lower central Plains/Ozarks
through the Ohio Valley Wednesday/Wednesday night. Further
deepening of the surface low is expected, with strengthening wind
fields and shear within/above its potentially broad warm sector.
Low-level moisture will still be in the process of returning, in the
wake of a prior system, and this appears to be the primary
uncertainty at this time which could temper the overall severe
weather potential.

...Southeast...
Greatest confidence in substantive boundary layer moistening appears
across portions of the eastern Gulf states into the south Atlantic
Coast states. Vigorous convective development may be ongoing at 12Z
Wednesday inland of the northeast Gulf coast, in response to
destabilization associated with the moistening, and large-scale
ascent associated with lower/mid-level warm advection. Guidance is
suggestive that this may be aided by forcing associated with a
subtropical speed maximum, which may contribute to an increase in
coverage through the day, within the northeastward advecting
moisture plume. In the presence of at least modestly steep
mid-level lapse rates, and wind profiles becoming characterized by
strong deep layer shear and sizable low-level hodographs,
considerable organized severe weather potential appears to exist.
This may include discrete supercells accompanied by the risk for
large hail and tornadoes. Severe thunderstorm potential could
continue into Wednesday night across and to the lee of the southern
Appalachians, ahead of the main upper trough.

...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
Although a bit more uncertain at this time, models indicate at least
a corridor of substantive pre-frontal low-level moisture return is
probable, in a pre-cold frontal plume across Tennessee into the
vicinity of the surface low center and warm front across the Ohio
Valley. Uncertainties also remain evident concerning the track of
the cyclone, and this is reflected in the delineation of the severe
probabilities. But, in the presence of considerable large-scale
forcing for ascent, and strong deep layer/low-level shear, organized
severe storm development still seems possible over a fairly broad
area. This includes the risk for discrete supercells, particularly
late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.
31 Mar 2017
There's potential for a big severe weather event in TX/LA area; the last system of a continuous string of Pacific systems that have been producing severe weather events daily since March 23(!!)



QUOTE
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SURROUNDING
AREAS OF TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of
central and eastern Texas into portions of the lower Mississippi
Valley Sunday into Sunday night, accompanied by a risk for severe
hail, potentially damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that an evolving impulse within a southern branch of
split mid-latitude westerlies (likely west northwest of the Texas
Big Bend region at 12Z Sunday) will accelerate east northeastward
during this period. Considerable spread is evident within the model
output concerning the speed at which this occurs, with the more
progressive solutions suggesting that an associated negatively
tilted trough axis will at least reach the Sabine Valley by 12Z
Monday, while the slower solutions lag to the west, across parts of
the Texas South Plains into lower Rio Grande Valley.

In general, though, it appears this feature will support the
development of a significant surface low within surface troughing,
migrating northeastward out of the Mexican Plateau/lower Rio Grande
Valley region. This also appears likely to be favorably timed with
an increasingly substantive return flow off the Gulf of Mexico,
which probably will include surface dew points in the mid 60s to
around 70 F. In the presence of relatively steep mid-level lapse
rates, guidance is suggestive that this may contribute to boundary
layer based CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg within the warm sector,
inland of mid/upper Texas coastal areas. Destabilization may
coincide with strengthening of lower/mid tropospheric wind fields,
including 30-50 kt (southerly) at 850 mb and 50-70 kt (west
southwesterly) at 500 mb.

...Southeastern Plains into northwestern Gulf coast region...
Aforementioned warm sector environmental conditions, including
large-scale forcing for ascent, appear favorable for organized
severe storm development Sunday into Sunday night. This could
include discrete supercell development (with attendant large hail
and tornadic risk) prior to, and in advance of, an evolving
mesoscale convective system that may be accompanied by swaths of
potentially damaging wind gusts. Uncertainty associated with timing
of the evolving system is tempering severe probabilities somewhat,
but highest probabilities at this time appear to exist across parts
of central/eastern Texas into parts of western/ central Louisiana
Sunday afternoon and evening.
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