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> April 15-16, 2018 MidAtl/NE Storm, Reality - OBSERVATIONS
Undertakerson
post Apr 12 2018, 03:48 AM
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In a testament to how "snow centric" this forum can be, we have an important long wave/short wave combination just a few days away, and relatively little discussion about it. So, I figured I'd better open a thread to see if anyone is truly interested.

Whether one looks at the GFS or the Euro, or even the ensembles, a super soaker is surely looming. I'll spare you my take, and just copy and paste the CTP discussion.

QUOTE
Model guidance has some relatively minor timing differences
with the main frontal system heading into the second half of the
weekend/early next week. The increasingly amplified springtime
pattern with distinct air masses and deep moisture feed from the
Gulf
ahead of an active cold front could eventually support a
risk for heavy rain and thunderstorms - most likely in the
Sunday-Monday timeframe.

GEFS mean rainfall for locations across Central PA are in the
1.75-2.25 inch range, with some ensemble members along with the
operational EC and GFS indicating the potential for around 3
inches of storm total rainfall over the 24 to 36 hour period
where training bands of heavy rain or thunderstorms occur
.

The exact timing and location of the heaviest rainfall is still
a bit uncertain. The higher end rainfall amounts would bring
the threat of small stream and poor drainage flooding
.


SPC has even introduced a risk for severe on Sunday, as this front structure has the temperature contrast and moisture content, more than ample to "get the job done"

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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Apr 15 2018, 05:47 AM
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MaineJay
post Apr 12 2018, 04:46 AM
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Haven't had much in the way of precipitation in a while. Still patchy snow on the ground, but mud season has lacked mud, zero complaints.

GYX
QUOTE
A highly anomalous area of low pressure will deepen and pass by
to our west during the afternoon on Monday. This will allow for
a line of heavy rainfall with embedded convection to cross the
region during the afternoon and evening hours.
This convection
and a strong southerly gradient aligned through a deep layer
will allow for winds to increase. There should be a short, 3 to
6 hour period with high wind gusts.

Depending on the rainfall intensity and amounts, as well as snow
melt, flooding could be an issue Monday night as the rivers will
be on the rise.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Ryan Duff
post Apr 12 2018, 06:32 AM
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From Sterling...

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Sunday... a low pressure system centered over
the Ohio Valley will be moving northeast and into the southern Great
Lakes. At the same time a high pressure system will be centered over
the west Atlantic. Southerly flow ahead of this front will continue
to advect warm and moist air into our region allowing for surface
dew points to the upper 50s and low 60s
with cloudy skies.



DPs in the 50-60's? Yuck! ohmy.gif dry.gif


--------------------
M.O.M. Certified (Inaugural Class of Winter 2015-2016)

"You must stick to your conviction, but be ready to abandon your assumptions."

Current Elevation: 30' ASL
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geeter1
post Apr 12 2018, 07:21 AM
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This throws all landscape projects back at least 3 days. mad.gif mad.gif
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LUCC
post Apr 12 2018, 11:42 AM
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--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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Undertakerson
post Apr 12 2018, 11:49 AM
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https://www.weather.gov/media/lmk/soo/heavy...forecasting.pdf

CTP made me look up reference to a "Maddox" event

QUOTE
Model guidance has some relatively minor timing differences
with the main frontal system heading into the second half of the
weekend/early next week. The increasingly amplified springtime
pattern is looking like a potential Maddox synoptic heavy rain
event, with an anomalous (+4SD) southerly low level jet
preceding approaching upper low and PWATs 2-3SD above normal.
GEFS mean rainfall for locations across Central PA are in the
1.75-2.25 inch range, with some ensemble members along with the
operational EC and GFS indicating the potential for local
amounts of around 3 inches over the 24 hour period where
training bands of heavy rain or thunderstorms occur. Sunday
night appears the most likely time of the heaviest rainfall. The
higher end rainfall amounts could potentially bring the threat
of small stream and poor drainage flooding.
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Fire/Rescue
post Apr 12 2018, 02:37 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Apr 12 2018, 12:49 PM) *
https://www.weather.gov/media/lmk/soo/heavy...forecasting.pdf

CTP made me look up reference to a "Maddox" event

Just what we need, MORE drenching rain!

NOT mad.gif
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Apr 12 2018, 02:37 PM
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Potential for a rare April ice event..

12z Euro
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12z nam
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12z 3k nam

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Mike W IN herkim...
post Apr 12 2018, 04:21 PM
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Sleet fest on the 18z 12k and 3k nam, temps stuck in the upper 20s for about 24 hrs while precipitating...

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rtcemc
post Apr 12 2018, 08:09 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Apr 12 2018, 04:48 AM) *
In a testament to how "snow centric" this forum can be, we have an important long wave/short wave combination just a few days away, and relatively little discussion about it. So, I figured I'd better open a thread to see if anyone is truly interested.

Whether one looks at the GFS or the Euro, or even the ensembles, a super soaker is surely looming. I'll spare you my take, and just copy and paste the CTP discussion.
SPC has even introduced a risk for severe on Sunday, as this front structure has the temperature contrast and moisture content, more than ample to "get the job done"

Attached Image

I resent the implications. I am not "snow centric", I am now officially a snow HATER. Got it! I want NO precipitation of ANY kind for the next two months, preferably with very warm temps(as long as I have the tee box), since my current water table is currently about 3 feet above the top of my foundation ohmy.gif
Shoot me a text or call whenever you can so we can start planning some golf tongue.gif
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Apr 13 2018, 12:26 AM
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Nws going with all rain atm, may need to start rethinking..

0z nam

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3k
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This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Apr 13 2018, 12:34 AM
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Apr 13 2018, 03:42 AM
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QUOTE
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM
EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of a
tenth to a quarter inch are expected.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 2 PM Saturday to 10 AM EDT Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely
due to the ice. Travel may be difficult at times
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Undertakerson
post Apr 13 2018, 03:50 AM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Apr 12 2018, 09:09 PM) *
I resent the implications. I am not "snow centric", I am now officially a snow HATER. Got it! I want NO precipitation of ANY kind for the next two months, preferably with very warm temps(as long as I have the tee box), since my current water table is currently about 3 feet above the top of my foundation ohmy.gif
Shoot me a text or call whenever you can so we can start planning some golf tongue.gif

Oh, I apologize. It must be your avatar that threw me off track.
laugh.gif

I'll get with you soon, perhaps. That "other more important matter" may be drawing towards an end even more quickly than I had imagined. sad.gif sad.gif

CTP out with an HWO

QUOTE
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is possible Sunday night into Monday
and could result in small stream and short duration flooding.


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Apr 13 2018, 03:51 AM
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Fire/Rescue
post Apr 13 2018, 06:56 AM
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The threat for a stormy Sunday afternoon here in my portion of the Mid-Atl looks to have been cut down as the latest thinking has the rain/storms now pushing thru Sunday night rather then during the heating of the day.

I for one am completely ok with this adjustment as it gives 1 more warm day prior to the cool down for next week.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 13 2018, 07:08 AM
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Ohh cant wait for this one ready for some convective potential to occur here. Little worried about warm frontal placement may end up just a little further south then expected which means more stratoform then anything but some energy aloft may allow some thunder and a few bolts of lightning. Seems like VA and even MD may get into some action.

That is some heavy rains being depicted though. Slow moving system large moisture transport cooler air trying to push down the east side of the apps will allow for some extra umph to rains. Tough call on areas that may get some icing a little harder to know for sure what may happen with that usually ends up being a sleet or rain event but cant rule it out if that cold surface really entrenches itself in those valley locations.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Apr 13 2018, 07:12 AM
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Kbuf

QUOTE
Freezing rain is unusual in April, but model guidance consistently
shows a nearly ideal set up for a wintry mix for roughly the
northern two-thirds of our cwa. It is tempting to discount model
guidance because of the date, however unusual late (and early)
season events can and do occur. Strong high pressure is forecast to
track from Ontario to Quebec this weekend, which will provide a
steady supply of cold air and sharpen a strong surface front.
Meanwhile, mid-level warm air advection will result in a classic
freezing rain sounding with a layer of +4 to +8 C over top of sub-
freezing air. Just north of this, it will be colder aloft (but
still above freezing) with significant sleet accumulation
possible. 00Z model consensus has trended Northeasterly winds will result in
significant wave action which may result in lakeshore flooding
and erosion along the southwestern shores of Lake Ontario.a
bit south/colder with the front and now shows a risk of
significant icing extending well south of Lake Ontario. Both ice
and sleet is a risk in the North Country where surface
temperatures will remain below freezing for most of the weekend.
Based on this, we will issue a winter weather advisory for all
areas expect the Southern Tier. Depending on the position of the
front, this may have to be added. There also is a risk the
North Country may approach warning criteria
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telejunkie
post Apr 13 2018, 07:19 AM
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Albany's disco for the first part of the storm:
QUOTE
Today is Friday the 13th, and the ol` man Winter is trying to
play a trick on the region for the upcoming weekend. Despite
mid-April upon us, an anomalously cold air mass will be building
into the region late tonight from southeastern Canada. The warm
front stalls over the Adirondacks, and northern New England and
starts to dip southward overnight into Saturday morning.
Periods of light rain will continue most of the night over the
Adirondack Park, and the Lake George Region. There is a growing
consensus from the guidance that the colder air will begin to
seep back in at the low levels causing the rain to start to
transition to freezing rain over the northern reaches of
Hamilton and northern Herkimer Counties by daybreak. Temps will
be rather mild Fri night with 40s to close 50F readings from the
Capital Region south and east, and mid 30s to lower 40s to the
north and west.

Saturday...The offshore ridge weakens some, as a full-latitude
upper level trough will be carved out over the central CONUS. A
1040+ hPa sfc high over n-central Ontario will be draining
shallow cold air into the region, as the cold front crashes
south of the I-90 corridor during the day. The NAM/ECMWF/SREFS
are all on board for a colder solution with sleet and freezing
rain as early as the late morning over the southern Adirondacks,
and spreading south and east into the Upper Hudson Valley/Lake
George Region, and southern VT by the afternoon. We have sided
with these colder scenarios (even a blend of the GFS/ECMWF/NAM
guidance favors freezing rain/sleet, which was used for the
gridded weather type forecasts) and through coordination with
WFOs BTV/BUF and WPC, we have issued a 3rd to 5th period
advisory. We have enough confidence to put these counties in
now. Some sleet will likely mix with the rain south of the
Advisory area before nightfall, as colder air bleeds in along
the tight low-level baroclinic zone.

Saturday Night into Sunday...We may have to expand advisories
further south into the Capital Region/Mohawk Valley/northern
eastern Catskills/Capital Region/Taconics/Berkshires and
Litchfield Hills for late Saturday/Saturday night into Sunday
for some sleet and freezing rain. Any ice accretions would be a
coating to around a tenth of an inch. Even the Capital Region
could get up to a half an inch of sleet. The depth of the
subfreezing air is uncanny on the NAM BUFKIT profiles. Even
Albany could have a mega sleet event here with potential temps
below 0C below H850-H800
. The 00Z EC H925 temps are very cold
with -5C down to the Capital Region Sat night. This event has
the potential to be a significant sleet/freezing rain event for
Tax Day. We believe any freezing rain will only accrete at
25-30% of the QPF per time period due to the sensible heat flux
from the ground and mid April coupled with the relatively warm
roads and the sun angle (SAT-SUN). However, the best sleet and
freezing rain accumulations will occur at night. Would not be
surprised to see 1-2 inches in the southern Adirondacks/southern
Greens Saturday night with a tenth to quarter inch of ice in a
few spots.
The east to northeast winds will continue to funnel
chilly air across the region. This will be a long duration
event. Lows will tumble into the mid 20s to mid 30s from north
to south over the region.

On Sunday, the front starts to lift back northward as a warm
front. Some light rain and freezing rain will persist in the
colder valley pockets. The upper level trough continues to
approach from the west, and strong southerly flow begins to
impact the region which should allow temps to warm up a bit.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 40s form the Tri Cities south
and east, and mid and upper 30s north and west. Total ice
accumulations will range from one to three tenths of an inch
with the higher totals over the east facing slopes of the
southern Adirondacks, and southern Greens.


Pretty ridiculous for a mid-april storm set up like this


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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snowdoug
post Apr 13 2018, 07:20 AM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Apr 13 2018, 07:56 AM) *
The threat for a stormy Sunday afternoon here in my portion of the Mid-Atl looks to have been cut down as the latest thinking has the rain/storms now pushing thru Sunday night rather then during the heating of the day.

I for one am completely ok with this adjustment as it gives 1 more warm day prior to the cool down for next week.


That would be a huge relief. Trying to sell my house and just planted grass seed and appled 6 yards mulch.
Dont need a washout now. I would however, take a slow stready drizzle.
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telejunkie
post Apr 13 2018, 07:27 AM
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Albany's disco for part 2 of the storm
QUOTE
A dynamic storm system will affect the region through Monday with
the potential for mixed wintry precip, heavy rain, and flooding.

Sunday night, a sharp low level temperature gradient will remain
anchored across the region, before gradually easing northward
Monday. This will allow for areas of freezing rain to persist across
the southern Adirondacks, the Lake George Saratoga region and
southern Vermont Sunday through about dawn on Monday. It is possible
for ice accretion to occur across at least higher terrain spots in
these areas during this time, with most ice accretion occurring on
the elevated exposed surfaces. Low temperatures will generally be in
the upper 20s in the higher terrain to the low 30s in the Mid-Hudson
valley.

After 12Z Monday, a strong 850mb southerly jet kicks in, helping to
warm the lower levels back above freezing, and changing any
remaining wintry precip back over to rain. This warm air will be in
place ahead of the main low pressure centers moving across the Great
Lakes and across New York Monday into Tuesday. Heavy rainfall looks
likely late Monday morning into Monday afternoon as a strong cold
front crosses through the region. Would not be surprised to hear a
few rumbles of thunder as well due to the dynamic nature of the
system. Will also have to monitor flooding concerns due to heavy
rain and at least some snowmelt. The latest MMEFS has several
forecast points going into at least moderate flood stage (based on
latest GEFS and NAEFS). Temperatures look to warm into the 50s for
most locations by the afternoon.

The steadier rainfall will taper off to showers as below normal,
cold air invades the region, allowing for rain to change back over
to snow in the higher terrain Monday night. Chances for rain/snow
showers linger through the day Tuesday as the upper level trough
passes overhead.


an exciting couple of days ahead...yeah spring break! dry.gif dry.gif

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Apr 13 2018, 07:29 AM


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Apr 13 2018, 07:57 AM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Wpc

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