Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

60 Pages V  « < 28 29 30 31 32 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Hurricane Jose, 9/17 5PM EDT CAT 1 - 90 MPH - 967mb - Movement: N @ 9mph
TC1
post Sep 13 2017, 05:25 PM
Post #581




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 735
Joined: 22-January 16
Member No.: 30,836





Speaking of NHC, the 5 P.M. update...


Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
baltimorewisher8...
post Sep 13 2017, 05:37 PM
Post #582




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,872
Joined: 17-December 09
From: Boulder, Colorado
Member No.: 20,276





QUOTE(TC1 @ Sep 13 2017, 06:25 PM) *
Speaking of NHC, the 5 P.M. update...


Attached Image


Looks good for now.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Its_Miller_A_Tim...
post Sep 13 2017, 07:04 PM
Post #583




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 183
Joined: 12-December 13
Member No.: 28,921





Even if this thing makes landfall over NYC, it'll be 1/4th of Sandy. It doesn't seem to pack as much of a punch.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
njwx7
post Sep 13 2017, 07:32 PM
Post #584




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 302
Joined: 18-January 16
Member No.: 30,769






Attached Image


"Confidence high on a track out to sea" blink.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SnowMan11
post Sep 13 2017, 07:44 PM
Post #585




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 24,046
Joined: 27-February 08
From: Brooklyn,NY
Member No.: 14,017





QUOTE(njwx7 @ Sep 13 2017, 08:32 PM) *

Attached Image


"Confidence [b]high on a track out to sea" [/b] blink.gif


They shouldn't be saying that right now

A hit or a miss are still on the table


--------------------
Anthony
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
njwx7
post Sep 13 2017, 07:48 PM
Post #586




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 302
Joined: 18-January 16
Member No.: 30,769





Didn't see it posted...Sorry if it's a duplicate...18z Ukie via stormtracker:

Attached Image


And also 18z NAVGEM, which continues to retrograde close to Long Island
Attached Image



This post has been edited by njwx7: Sep 13 2017, 07:55 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stretchct
post Sep 13 2017, 08:07 PM
Post #587




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,547
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 13 2017, 04:54 PM) *
So, let's say Euro is east of NAV - we expect the Euro to come back west.

If the NAV adjusts east (but still west of Euro) we expect the models that had been west, to come east.

Gosh, I hope I'm not muddying this worse than I think I am)

You explained it better than I....


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
telejunkie
post Sep 13 2017, 08:19 PM
Post #588




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,856
Joined: 8-December 09
From: Manchester, VT (elev 800')
Member No.: 20,089





QUOTE(ionizer @ Sep 13 2017, 06:07 PM) *
why does NHC continue to show it out to sea despite these models?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong...but pretty sure it can be summarized in on word: Ensembles. Ensembles are great, but their lower resolution can have difficulties with more complex interactions.


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Jersey
post Sep 13 2017, 08:20 PM
Post #589




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 8
Joined: 18-August 09
From: Northwestern New Jersey
Member No.: 18,961





QUOTE(njwx7 @ Sep 13 2017, 08:32 PM) *

Attached Image


"Confidence high on a track out to sea" blink.gif


The Mt.Holly/Philadelphia Forecast Discussion and the NHC Discussion aren't that definite and strong, but do I sure hope that this tweet ends up panning out! biggrin.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Phased Vort
post Sep 13 2017, 08:29 PM
Post #590




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 19,156
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





Another look at the 12Z UKMET:

Attached Image


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stretchct
post Sep 13 2017, 08:34 PM
Post #591




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,547
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





I got a look at the Euro gusts finally.

Hr 138 the peak gusts were 120mph offshore. NJ/LI/CT/RI/MA coasts seeing 30-35kt gusts. From there the max gusts decrease. From there on the max gusts are: Jersey Shore looking at 30-40kt gusts, Nyc area 35-45kt. LI 35-55kt. Bridgeport comes in with a max gust of 48kts up to 55kts in Groton. RI is 40kts in the N, 55kts in the south. SE MA is 45-55kts, including the Cape, Vineyard and Nantucket.

So nothing we can't handle. Tropical storm strength gusts, with 20-30mph sustained.

Navgem winds are in mph and are sustained winds. A bit stronger but targets the same area. Actually at 144 near hurricane strength.

Attached Image

Attached Image


I'm not sold by any means on a landfall, but will continue to watch.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ionizer
post Sep 13 2017, 08:36 PM
Post #592




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 393
Joined: 21-February 08
From: Marlboro, NJ
Member No.: 13,856





QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Sep 13 2017, 06:20 PM) *
First of all - the NHC doesnt flip flop with each model suite and for good reason.

Second - your two points are kind of contradictory... You say you refuse to believe it will be anywhere near the coast in the same breath asking why the NHC doesnt change its track closer to the coast? See what I mean?

There is plenty of time here and until the models have some consensus or a better grasp, I see no reason for the NHC to make any significant changes - (not saying they may not need to at a later date)...


my points aren't really contradictory... i believe the NHC model out to sea and not asking them to flip flop, but in here people have been posting fairly consistently that it shows a track along the coast.

so my question was why the contradiction between NHC (and what i believe) vs. what models people are posting here?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ionizer
post Sep 13 2017, 08:37 PM
Post #593




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 393
Joined: 21-February 08
From: Marlboro, NJ
Member No.: 13,856





QUOTE(telejunkie @ Sep 13 2017, 09:19 PM) *
Someone correct me if I'm wrong...but pretty sure it can be summarized in on word: Ensembles. Ensembles are great, but their lower resolution can have difficulties with more complex interactions.


so the NHC is based purely on ensembles and ensembles are lower resolution?

the models being posted here are based on some more complex details?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Sep 13 2017, 08:57 PM
Post #594




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 13 2017, 03:20 PM) *
The NAVGEM "Rule" states that, given its notorious progressive bias, the NAV can be a barometer (if you will) to what the others end up doing. So, if it is west of it's previous run, so too (often) will be the other global resolution models. IOW, it should almost always be the EASTERN-most model, in any particular suite of model runs.

We use it all the time in winter and, now, it seems to work just as well (in the main) with TC's.

But, like any "rule" (Typhoon Rule, Bering Sea Rule, etc.) it is not 100% (but not too much below) and can mislead.

So, I compare it to its own output from previous, then can anticipate a general move in that direction, from the other models. If a model doesn't adjust per the Rule, then I tend to not trust it. If the model does adjust to the Rule, then I give it more credit.

Edit - I probably did a horrible job at explaining the Rule.



Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 

Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Sep 13 2017, 09:00 PM
Post #595




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(ionizer @ Sep 13 2017, 08:37 PM) *
so the NHC is based purely on ensembles and ensembles are lower resolution?

the models being posted here are based on some more complex details?


The NHC states where they get their forecast ideas from in the Discussion section...

QUOTE
Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017
Later in the forecast period, a northward motion is expected as a mid-
level high builds to the east-northeast. Jose is expected to move
through a break in the subtropical ridge in 3-5 days. The official
track forecast is similar to its predecessor and is about in the
middle of the reliable guidance suite.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
TC1
post Sep 13 2017, 10:17 PM
Post #596




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 735
Joined: 22-January 16
Member No.: 30,836





The 11 P.M. update...


Attached Image


Bit by bit, the left side of that cone keeps shifting closer to the coast sad.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Phased Vort
post Sep 13 2017, 10:33 PM
Post #597




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 19,156
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





QUOTE(TC1 @ Sep 13 2017, 10:17 PM) *
The 11 P.M. update...


Attached Image


Bit by bit, the left side of that cone keeps shifting closer to the coast sad.gif



The question is, for how long will this west adjustment will continue.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
longislander
post Sep 13 2017, 10:42 PM
Post #598




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,025
Joined: 24-August 11
Member No.: 25,937





I'm not sure its moving west, its moving north and the coastline is trending east - so it looks like its moving west.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Qdeathstar
post Sep 13 2017, 10:50 PM
Post #599




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 577
Joined: 30-September 15
Member No.: 30,610





pretty sure you need at least three runs to say which way the coast is trending!!!


--------------------
Jan 6 - 8 SNOW (and possibly a blizzard) Webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Qdeathstar
post Sep 13 2017, 10:56 PM
Post #600




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 577
Joined: 30-September 15
Member No.: 30,610





gfs significantly stronger this run (950 vs 978) , further west but looks like it's heading ots...

This post has been edited by Qdeathstar: Sep 13 2017, 10:57 PM


--------------------
Jan 6 - 8 SNOW (and possibly a blizzard) Webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

60 Pages V  « < 28 29 30 31 32 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
2 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 26th September 2017 - 04:36 PM