Nov 21-23 Eastern Canada Storm, Long Range Forecast's Options

[blizzardOf96]

What was the NAO like in the 2007/08 winter,more so December 2007?

Dec 2007: 0.23
January 2008: 0.53
February 2008: 0.38
March 2008: -0.32

It looks like a slightly positive nao is favorable for glc or apps runners which really gave us a beating in December 2007 and then again in February after a small break in January.

[hockeynut]

I still have my fingers crossed for a gd dumping of snow by the secend week of dec


Cheers

Hockeynut

This post has been edited by hockeynut: Nov 14 2012, 08:20 PM

[markj138]

Dec 2007: 0.23
January 2008: 0.53
February 2008: 0.38
March 2008: -0.32

It looks like a slightly positive nao is favorable for glc or apps runners which really gave us a beating in December 2007 and then again in February after a small break in January.

Thanks for the info Blizz,i would guess neutral would be fairly good for us to,also depends if it is west or eats based,i am reading a west based NAO may be seting up soon.
is there a website where you can get old GFS maps from years past?

[blizzardOf96]

I still have my fingers crossed for a gd dumping of snow by the secend week of dec
Cheers

Hockeynut

18z GFS has a monster that phases in the great lakes region before moving east. Very interesting with negatively tilted trough, phased polar and pacific jets spawning a major storm. This time period looks more interesting. Will probably trend west and stronger with time.

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This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Nov 14 2012, 08:35 PM

[dsichewski]

I still have my fingers crossed for a gd dumping of snow by the secend week of dec
Cheers

Hockeynut

Mee too! I need lots of snow for a christmas camp i'm running. lol hard to do activities outside with no snow!!! C'mon snow for camps and ice rinks!

[knorthern_knight]

Going to be interesting for atlantic Canada finally maybe i will get a storm lol .

The ECMWF shows the system south of New Brunswick and east of Virginia, Nov 21 at 12Z, which is the max for ECMWF.

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The GFS has it a bit further east. The GFS goes further into the future. It shows a NE track, hitting the Avalon peninsula.

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[hockeynut]

That would be awesome blizz if we did get that storm that you think we might get that would mean if the cold stayed after it went through that it would mean an early start to the backyard rink season


Cheers

Hockeynut

[knorthern_knight]

Looks like the "Toronto winter forecast fizzle syndrome" is starting early. The 00Z GFS shows nothing/zip/zilch/nada near Eastern Canada. A low developes off the coast of Georgia on the 21st, hangs around, for a couple of days, and goes away. Here's the situation on the 23rd...

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[Regg]

That storm (the main subject), is now at sea for the past 2 days. Is that the new pattern for this year - aka getting a coastal storm up to NY, then it goes far at sea, then goes around the maritimes and NewFl. just to hit Labrador.

At this rate, first ''real'' snow will only come in December (if any). O ... i mean OOOOOOOO i hate that pattern.

The only ''good'' side is the cold will hit us a bit earlier now that the storms are too far east. Arctic air will have all the place to set in in the east. Good for LES, but nothing else.

[blizzardOf96]

Long range looks interesting, GFS looks bullish on two major storms:
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[knorthern_knight]

I hate to rain on everybody's parade in Toronto, but the latest GFS looks like rain, at least at the beginning. Maybe some snow on the backside, and scattered flurries after the cold front goes through. The 850 mb temp looks too warm for a big snow event. Note that it comes at us from the west, so it doesn't have the moisture that a storm from Gulf of Mexico, or a left-hooking Sandy can produce.

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[Regg]

I wouldn't worry about GFS prediction after 200hrs - and worst in this case after 300hrs. That solution will get about 75 to 85 updates before getting to us. And that's the same for about any model in the field.

Try Ouija, for such long terms you might end up with better results lol.

[hockeynut]

I hate to rain on everybody's parade in Toronto, but the latest GFS looks like rain, at least at the beginning. Maybe some snow on the backside, and scattered flurries after the cold front goes through. The 850 mb temp looks too warm for a big snow event. Note that it comes at us from the west, so it doesn't have the moisture that a storm from Gulf of Mexico, or a left-hooking Sandy can produce.

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I really hope this is not rain cause that would really suck.. but there is lots of time for that to change


cheers

hockeynut

[travis3000]

I never trust the GFS beyond 200 hours. It has created some of the best fantasy storms I have seen!

Out to Nov 22nd (next Thursday) I see mostly sunny skies in the east with daytime temps in S Ontario in the 5-10C range.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Nov 15 2012, 08:57 PM

[Regg]

I never trust the GFS beyond 200 hours. It has created some of the best fantasy storms I have seen!

Oo soooooo true .. totally agree with you. If we could have 10% of the mega storms we've seen in the GFS beyond 200hrs, we'd stil be pushing snow late june

[JJ Snowlover]

Oo soooooo true .. totally agree with you. If we could have 10% of the mega storms we've seen in the GFS beyond 200hrs, we'd stil be pushing snow late june

Yes agreed, the GFS is my "goofy for snow" model, the Euro is much better at long range, but this one is still pretty far away to accurately perdict even for the Euro.