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> March 11 Plains/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level; Days 4-8 Possible: Forecasts and OBS
WeatherMonger
post Mar 6 2017, 10:30 AM
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CV has alluded to this potential several times. SPC has highlighted an area for Saturday. Figured I would get this started since he has chosen to vacation over the weather laugh.gif as has always been the case, will start this thread expecting OH to be included at some point laugh.gif

Will adjust dates as becomes clearer if warranted


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QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/day 4 through Friday/day 5 KS/OK/MO/AR...
Low-level moisture return will begin day 3 across TX and will
persist through day 5 across much of OK/KS/MO/AR. The low-level
moistening will occur beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates, which
will result in an increasingly unstable warm sector with time. A
weak shortwave trough could traverse this area in the
Thursday-Friday time frame, with an associated increase in the
severe storm risk. However, predictability remains low with any
details within the zonal flow regime, and low-level mass
response/vertical shear will likely be more limited until somewhat
stronger cyclogenesis is expected by Saturday/day 6.

...Saturday/day 6 AR/MO to KY/TN...
There is some consistency in recent operational model runs and
associated ensembles for a low-amplitude shortwave trough, and a
related surface cyclone, to move from the east-central Plains to the
lower OH and TN Valleys by Saturday night. It appears likely that
the warm sector of this cyclone will be relatively warm/unstable
given several days of moisture return from the south and a steep
lapse-rate plume from the west. Given the low-amplitude nature of
this system, some predictability/timing concerns will likely linger
to within 2-3 days of the potential event. Still, the quality of
the warm sector and strengthening wind profiles with the
wave/cyclogenesis appear supportive of an organized severe-storm
risk, even if the exact details of the threat area will probably
change in later outlooks.

..Thompson.. 03/06/2017

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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 7 2017, 03:07 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Mar 6 2017, 10:30 AM) *
CV has alluded to this potential several times. SPC has highlighted an area for Saturday. Figured I would get this started since he has chosen to vacation over the weather laugh.gif as has always been the case, will start this thread expecting OH to be included at some point laugh.gif

Will adjust dates as becomes clearer if warranted


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Hahaha. You know I'll be following this when I can. Heck, I probably won't be able to resist contributing a bit. I may or may not be sober, but that's a part of the game for y'all this week; is CV sober or not?

I'd say that's a hard game, if I do say so myself.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 7 2017, 03:15 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 5 (Last: 3/27/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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WeatherMonger
post Mar 7 2017, 08:57 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 7 2017, 02:07 AM) *
Hahaha. You know I'll be following this when I can. Heck, I probably won't be able to resist contributing a bit. I may or may not be sober, but that's a part of the game for y'all this week; is CV sober or not?

I'd say that's a hard game, if I do say so myself.

No worries, SPC has since removed any delineation and states uncertainty of any cyclogensis at all as the reason.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 13 2017, 02:01 AM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Athens, Ohio
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Nailed it all along laugh.gif



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 5 (Last: 3/27/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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