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> Winter 2016-17
Bob and Karen
post Feb 1 2017, 02:10 PM
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QUOTE(Bob and Karen @ Jan 17 2017, 05:04 PM) *
Greetings from a long time lurker & weather novice peep from Southeastern Pennsylvania.

Our yearly family winter vacation in Algonquin Provincial Park has been on hold for a couple weeks due to the recent warm and rainy weather pattern. Looks like next weeks weather is questionable at best How does the week of January 29th or the following week, look for lots of snow and cold weather?

Thank you for your help!
Snow lover Bob & family
🎿⛸🏒❄️☃️🌨


Just came back from some winter tent "glamping" at Algonquin Park in Ontario. Happy and satisfied now had my snow fix! They had about 2 to 3 feet of snow on the ground last week with more coming out of the sky almost every day.

If we could have ONE snowstorm or blizzard this winter season down here in snowless southeastern Pennsylvania, I'd be a happy glamper...Then bring on spring-time!

http://barrie.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1043266
"American couple prefers winter camping at Algonquin Park"


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Lake effect
post Feb 1 2017, 02:35 PM
Post #2402




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QUOTE(Bob and Karen @ Feb 1 2017, 02:10 PM) *
Just came back from some winter tent "glamping" at Algonquin Park in Ontario. Happy and satisfied now had my snow fix! They had about 2 to 3 feet of snow on the ground last week with more coming out of the sky almost every day.

If we could have ONE snowstorm or blizzard this winter season down here in snowless southeastern Pennsylvania, I'd be a happy glamper...Then bring on spring-time!

http://barrie.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1043266
"American couple prefers winter camping at Algonquin Park"


That video is so funny...especially the bit about number 2s!!!

Well done guys, glad you had a great time and that nature came up trumps (are we allowed to use that word still?)
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elder05
post Feb 1 2017, 02:45 PM
Post #2403




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QUOTE(Bob and Karen @ Feb 1 2017, 02:10 PM) *
Just came back from some winter tent "glamping" at Algonquin Park in Ontario. Happy and satisfied now had my snow fix! They had about 2 to 3 feet of snow on the ground last week with more coming out of the sky almost every day.

If we could have ONE snowstorm or blizzard this winter season down here in snowless southeastern Pennsylvania, I'd be a happy glamper...Then bring on spring-time!

http://barrie.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1043266
"American couple prefers winter camping at Algonquin Park"

That is awesome! good for you guys!


--------------------
follow me on twitter @coreywxelder
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JFK
post Feb 1 2017, 03:44 PM
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CANSIPS is showing an early Spring..



J

This post has been edited by JFK: Feb 1 2017, 03:45 PM
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bigmt
post Feb 2 2017, 06:37 AM
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00z NAEFS temp probabilities, days 8-14:

Attached File  nfffgsc.png ( 75.2K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Feb 2 2017, 06:39 AM
Post #2406




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06z GEFS 500mb height anomalies / 2m temp anomalies.

Hour 240 - Day 10:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_41_776.png ( 986.38K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 300 - Day 12.5:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_51_990.png ( 963.02K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 360 - Day 15:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_61_744.png ( 1.02MB ) Number of downloads: 1
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Lake effect
post Feb 2 2017, 07:02 AM
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QUOTE(elder05 @ Feb 1 2017, 11:19 AM) *
just looking at the WRF's snow squall parameter alone (which is formed solely from a combination of moisture, temperature, instability, and wind, it really backs off on the potential for tonight...we shall see how that unfolds!


So going back to this. I think it's fair to say my back of the envelope prediction using the common sense parameters of "the wind is coming from the NW, it's going to be brass monkeys, there will be squalls" worked better than the models. We didn't get 20cms (I always wishcast), but I was woken up by the snowplow at 4.00am and we did have 6-8cms, and this was the radar:

Attached File  Screenshot_20170202_050938.jpg ( 286.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  Screenshot_20170202_042036.jpg ( 275.92K ) Number of downloads: 0



This was the 12Z NAM 3K for 4am:

Attached File  nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_21.png ( 180.7K ) Number of downloads: 0


and the 04Z HRRR (the 12Z pretty much showed nothing as did your mates tool yesterday lunchtime):

Attached File  hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_5.png ( 146.86K ) Number of downloads: 0



I noticed that before Christmas the HRRR seemed to be over enthusiastic, then they must have changed something and now it is under predicting. The NAM 4K can often be better than the NAM 3K, both are streets ahead of where they were a year or two ago, but still seem to miss squalls on Georgian Bay. Now, I am not criticizing any of them, as on a macro scale they are doing a great job, but from a very local perspective they are not. So what? Millions of dollars is the so what. The lack of accuracy in predicting squalls of GB affects planning for the many plow teams and winter sport businesses, and probably massively reduces efficiency.

In my view, this might make an interesting project to propose to some local government types up here, because if me and Travis can do a better job of predicting squalls by spending a few minutes looking at wind maps, then someone who has a professional expertize in the field, and dedicated resources, could probably generate a very effective tool for this region that could ultimately save business and city budgets millions.






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bigmt
post Feb 2 2017, 07:12 AM
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Deep snow, deep cold, deep winter part deux:

Attached File  fdrr.jpg ( 420.22K ) Number of downloads: 1
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bigmt
post Feb 2 2017, 07:15 AM
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Be our guest, be our guest, put our winter to the test biggrin.gif

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/n...ters-winterlude

QUOTE
The NCC has confirmed the entire stretch of the Rideau Canal skateway will open Thursday morning, one day before Winterlude begins.

Canal operators said the full 7.8-kilometre skateway would be open as of 8 a.m.
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snowgeek93
post Feb 2 2017, 09:24 AM
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Solidly white around my place again after almost a month smile.gif

Attached File  IMG_20170202_0916010491.jpg ( 1.84MB ) Number of downloads: 0


Just keep it looking like this at least and we can begin to salvage the second half of the season here.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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JFK
post Feb 2 2017, 10:43 AM
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The older I get, the less I like winter.

But today, with some new snow and very bright sunshine and little wind, winter didn't seem so bad.



J
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bigmt
post Feb 2 2017, 11:06 AM
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January forecast verification - http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...t&p=2165373

Attached File  janhhgf.png ( 317.8K ) Number of downloads: 1
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stuffradio
post Feb 2 2017, 11:18 AM
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Some local mets are saying there is potential for historic snow this weekend. Should probably get 5cm at least at YVR tomorrow.

Does anyone know how I can get the RMSE percentage number for the CMC? I'm interested in comparing it to the GFS and ECMWF.
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bigmt
post Feb 2 2017, 11:33 AM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Feb 2 2017, 11:18 AM) *
Some local mets are saying there is potential for historic snow this weekend. Should probably get 5cm at least at YVR tomorrow.


4.8cm is all it will take to achieve DJF averages.

QUOTE
Does anyone know how I can get the RMSE percentage number for the CMC? I'm interested in comparing it to the GFS and ECMWF.


https://weather.gc.ca/verification/index_e.html
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snowgeek93
post Feb 2 2017, 12:49 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 2 2017, 11:06 AM) *
January forecast verification - http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...t&p=2165373

Attached File  janhhgf.png ( 317.8K ) Number of downloads: 1

Not bad! If anything the warmth was just more pronounced in certain areas.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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bigmt
post Feb 2 2017, 02:06 PM
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12z GEFS 500mb height anomalies / 2m temp anomalies.

Hour 240 - Day 10:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_41_665.png ( 1022.5K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 300 - Day 12.5:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_51_009.png ( 1.01MB ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 360 - Day 15:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_61_78.png ( 995.52K ) Number of downloads: 1
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bigmt
post Feb 2 2017, 02:37 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Feb 2 2017, 12:49 PM) *
Not bad! If anything the warmth was just more pronounced in certain areas.


A little crow does the body good smile.gif
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bigmt
post Feb 2 2017, 02:38 PM
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GFS and CMC ensembles maintaining the +PNA outlook as of 12z:

Attached File  gefs_pna_12.png ( 43.78K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  geps_pna_12.png ( 42.42K ) Number of downloads: 0
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Torontoweather
post Feb 2 2017, 03:02 PM
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QUOTE(JFK @ Feb 2 2017, 10:43 AM) *
The older I get, the less I like winter.

But today, with some new snow and very bright sunshine and little wind, winter didn't seem so bad.



J


Ooohh, where is that? I want to go! smile.gif
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bigmt
post Feb 2 2017, 03:15 PM
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My welcome mat is also out:

Attached File  pivggf.jpg ( 419.83K ) Number of downloads: 2
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