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> Jan. 12-14 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Cogitation: Long Range [8-15 days out] FORECAST
jasonus03
post Jan 9 2018, 11:22 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 9 2018, 10:20 PM) *
This little gem needs a thread, it's just a day or 2 after this storm


One at a time laugh.gif
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NWOhioChaser
post Jan 9 2018, 11:22 PM
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QUOTE(rmk1487 @ Jan 9 2018, 10:54 PM) *
Not looking good for NW Ohio.

We were in the bullseye from the beginning...not the least bit surprised. Anywho, it's only one model run. If 12z and 0z tomorrow show the same... well then, we have a cause for concern. All about the HP to the northwest. Tonight's run want it to push on our storm a little more, hence the shift.

This post has been edited by NWOhioChaser: Jan 9 2018, 11:38 PM
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JDClapper
post Jan 9 2018, 11:23 PM
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NAM, CMC, GFS... all at 7am Saturday. Tracks fairly similar .. other details, not so much.

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 20"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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CentralIllinois
post Jan 9 2018, 11:24 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 9 2018, 10:20 PM) *
This little gem needs a thread, it's just a day or 2 after this storm

I'm sure this will be another miss for this area somehow haha


--------------------

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:10.1"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


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JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 9 2018, 11:24 PM
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Updated WPC map:


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CIWeather
post Jan 9 2018, 11:26 PM
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QUOTE(jasonus03 @ Jan 9 2018, 10:22 PM) *
One at a time laugh.gif


I don't know. I think I need to be focusing on that one instead of this one. Not much reason for me to be confident about this one at all right now...


--------------------
2016-2017 Fall/Winter Statistics

First Chance of Snow:
First Snowflakes:
First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: (Winter Weather Advisory)
First Winter Storm Watch: 1/12/17
First Winter Storm Warning:
First Blizzard Watch/Warning:
# of Winter Storm Watches: 1
# of Winter Storm Warnings:
# of Blizzard Watches/Warnings:

2017 Severe Weather Statistics

First Risk of Severe Weather:
Slight Risks: 3
Enhanced Risks: 1
Moderate Risks: 1
High Risks:

Severe Thunderstorm Watches:
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:
Tornado Warnings:


April 18-19, 2016: 20-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL.
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CentralIllinois
post Jan 9 2018, 11:27 PM
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GEM not too impressive for anyone general 4-6
Attached thumbnail(s)
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--------------------

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:10.1"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


Note to Accuweather.com....Please give us a dedicated video blogger for the Plains/MW/OV/GL area!
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Juniorrr
post Jan 9 2018, 11:27 PM
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QUOTE(CentralIllinois @ Jan 9 2018, 11:27 PM) *
GEM not too impressive for anyone

Very anemic, discouraging since the GEM has done ok recently.
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OSUWx2
post Jan 9 2018, 11:30 PM
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Anyone with UKMET maps yet?
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CentralIllinois
post Jan 9 2018, 11:32 PM
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QUOTE(OSUWx2 @ Jan 9 2018, 10:30 PM) *
Anyone with UKMET maps yet?

just started


--------------------

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:10.1"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


Note to Accuweather.com....Please give us a dedicated video blogger for the Plains/MW/OV/GL area!
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Snow____
post Jan 9 2018, 11:32 PM
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QUOTE(CentralIllinois @ Jan 9 2018, 11:27 PM) *
GEM not too impressive for anyone general 4-6

Would still be the biggest snow in a couple years for me so Ill gladly take it.


--------------------
Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 9 2018, 11:44 PM
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When WHIO posts an article saying GFS and Euro show 5"+ of snow in the Dayton area (not necessarily true), and uses a snapshot of the 18z 32km NAM because it looks scary... smile.gif yay irresponsibility.

http://www.whio.com/weather/significant-wi...Ava8hPlj2NCLoM/


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 9 2018, 11:46 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 1 (Last: 2/15/18)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post Jan 9 2018, 11:49 PM
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0z GGEM
Attached Image


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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jdrenken
post Jan 9 2018, 11:54 PM
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QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 9 2018, 10:24 PM) *
Updated WPC map:


I believe this is the basis..

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/500vgftbl/500vgf.html


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Attached Image
 


--------------------
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ecanem
post Jan 10 2018, 12:00 AM
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Im on my phone but ukie looks way east too
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snowlover2
post Jan 10 2018, 12:02 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 9 2018, 11:44 PM) *
When WHIO posts an article saying GFS and Euro show 5"+ of snow in the Dayton area (not necessarily true), and uses a snapshot of the 18z 32km NAM because it looks scary... smile.gif yay irresponsibility.

http://www.whio.com/weather/significant-wi...Ava8hPlj2NCLoM/

I remember when Jamie Simpson was the chief met they wouldn't talk snow amounts until a couple days out. So much for that.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Jan 10 2018, 12:06 AM
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QUOTE(ecanem @ Jan 10 2018, 12:00 AM) *
Im on my phone but ukie looks way east too

Yeah looks like its joined the consensus track wise.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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NWOhioChaser
post Jan 10 2018, 12:21 AM
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I would actually find it pretty funny if all the models would correct further east after being so consistent. Does anyone know if we're getting any partial sampling tonight?
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 10 2018, 12:27 AM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jan 10 2018, 12:02 AM) *
I remember when Jamie Simpson was the chief met they wouldn't talk snow amounts until a couple days out. So much for that.

Looks like Eric Elwell wrote that article. Glad it wasn't Brett Collar because I got a call from him last semester, out of the blue, saying if there's anything he can do for me, let him know. Gonna try to apply for an internship there next year, but sheesh... I'm not into twisting the truth for clicks.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 10 2018, 12:31 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 1 (Last: 2/15/18)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Juniorrr
post Jan 10 2018, 12:33 AM
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It would be quite hilarious if this ends up as what the NAVGEM shows. Since most of the models so far have shown changes, i wonder if sampling of the energy in SOCAL reflects this.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Jan 10 2018, 12:34 AM
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