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> March 26-28 MidAtl/NE Spring Storm, Cogitation: Long Range [8-15 Days Out] FORECAST
LoveNYCSnow
post Mar 19 2017, 11:16 AM
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This will change a ton of times but given that it's the last week of March would not have high confidence for any winter precip south of Central NY


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2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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Undertakerson
post Mar 19 2017, 11:21 AM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Mar 19 2017, 12:16 PM) *
This will change a ton of times but given that it's the last week of March would not have high confidence for any winter precip south of Central NY

I'd at I-80 axis and up from there, still in play to see something wintry. But yes, very difficult otherwise.

Cold air is nearby, but can it get close enough and if so how deep can it get?

Even with fresh Canadian HP - even at strength, this is not mid-winter so its influence, I would expect, would be blunted.

The two systems will have to merge and deepen for a majority of the region to make out with frozen precip.
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Undertakerson
post Mar 19 2017, 11:23 AM
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Attached Image


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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 19 2017, 11:24 AM
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Undertakerson
post Mar 19 2017, 11:30 AM
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This Op run, verbatim, has a much slower evolution with the S stream lagging well behind.

Allows the northern feature to escape (paints snow in N NY and NE), with the S stream system still churning.

Cold air is nearby, but not near enough.



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Undertakerson
post Mar 19 2017, 11:31 AM
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Comes up into a CAD situation

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MaineJay
post Mar 19 2017, 11:48 AM
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12z GFS is choo-choo

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"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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Undertakerson
post Mar 19 2017, 12:11 PM
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Prior to this frame, the CMC has frozen precip for the above I-80 crowd


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As evidenced by this snow map (used for reference to general region only)


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To include the frames following


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So sad it's the CMC though

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JDClapper
post Mar 19 2017, 12:43 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 19 2017, 01:11 PM) *
Prior to this frame, the CMC has frozen precip for the above I-80 crowd


Attached Image


As evidenced by this snow map (used for reference to general region only)


Attached Image


To include the frames following


Attached Image


So sad it's the CMC though


But, the idea is the same .. cold pushing south, moisture over-running .. now, how far does the cold push.

\_(ツ)_/


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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JDClapper
post Mar 19 2017, 12:46 PM
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Our time is limited to post pretty snowmaps that irriate MDBR, so we should embrace it and post for all it's worth. smile.gif

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--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Ryan Duff
post Mar 19 2017, 01:00 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 19 2017, 12:21 PM) *
I'd at I-80 axis and up from there, still in play to see something wintry. But yes, very difficult otherwise.

Cold air is nearby, but can it get close enough and if so how deep can it get?

Even with fresh Canadian HP - even at strength, this is not mid-winter so its influence, I would expect, would be blunted.

The two systems will have to merge and deepen for a majority of the region to make out with frozen precip.



Given past climatology I generally consider Harrisburg in play through May 1st. Very minor chances, but looking at the records, April has at least a trace, if not more recorded for any given day. Out of those 30 days in April, 9 of them are recorded near-term (1970-present).

Once you hit May 2nd you drop to any recorded activity is more or less an anomaly.

Just thought I'd throw that perspective out there. wink.gif

http://www.weather.gov/ctp/climateRecordsHarrisburg


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paletitsnow63
post Mar 19 2017, 01:37 PM
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12Z GGEM showing strong HP to the north. For some reason TT maps weren't putting the little "L" and "H" symbols on their maps for 12Z GGEM

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paletitsnow63
post Mar 19 2017, 01:39 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 19 2017, 01:43 PM) *
But, the idea is the same .. cold pushing south, moisture over-running .. now, how far does the cold push.

\_(ツ)_/

Similar look and setup (with not as much QPF) as 12Z ECMWF yesterday.

This post has been edited by paletitsnow63: Mar 19 2017, 01:40 PM
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Undertakerson
post Mar 19 2017, 01:40 PM
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Euro puts the SLP in OH at Hr168. The HP is not enough to overcome that WAA - 850's only make it as far south as MA borders with VT/NH


Attached Image


Now is the most progressive model, I believe

Not that these Op runs mean a whole lot at this point. Ensembles may tell different tales

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 19 2017, 01:41 PM
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paletitsnow63
post Mar 19 2017, 01:46 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 19 2017, 02:40 PM) *
Euro puts the SLP in OH at Hr168. The HP is not enough to overcome that WAA - 850's only make it as far south as MA borders with VT/NH


Attached Image


Now is the most progressive model, I believe

Not that these Op runs mean a whole lot at this point. Ensembles may tell different tales

UTS. Do you think the strength of the HP (in regard to cold) is being underestimated? At H192 the HP is strong enough to squash the LP to the Delmarva but still not much cold there. I'm thinking a strong HP coming down from eastern Canada (even in late March) should have more cold air with it.

This post has been edited by paletitsnow63: Mar 19 2017, 01:48 PM
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Undertakerson
post Mar 19 2017, 01:47 PM
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Now this is a bit interesting

(oop wrong imnage, give me a minute)

Transfer beneath Mason Dixon?

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Undertakerson
post Mar 19 2017, 01:48 PM
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paletitsnow63
post Mar 19 2017, 01:49 PM
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12Z UKMET and 12Z GGEM look very similar at H144

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Undertakerson
post Mar 19 2017, 01:52 PM
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 19 2017, 02:46 PM) *
UTS. Do you think the strength of the HP (in regard to cold) is being underestimated? At H192 the HP is strong enough to squash the LP to the Delmarva but still not much cold there. I'm thinking a strong HP coming down from eastern Canada (even in late March) should have more cold air with it.

Been trying to figure that out. Perhaps too transient? (not anchored strongly enough?)

Or is the WAA far too strong (perhaps equally or more likely)
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Undertakerson
post Mar 19 2017, 01:53 PM
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The track is there - but the temps come with it.

So - the Euro kind of ruins everything by staying too far N, even with the last minute jump east, underneath PA.

GGEM further S (allowing more cold air in)

GFS kind of in the middle

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If you're rooting for snow - better hope the Canadians have a better handle on the strength and influence of the cold air feed. (I have found that the CMC gets that part "right", more often than it does other features - but not always)


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 19 2017, 01:57 PM
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KENNYP2339
post Mar 19 2017, 02:21 PM
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Hard to believe the sun light length for March 20th is the same as September 22nd, same light of day, slightly different angle.
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