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> Winter 2015-2016
MrMusic
post Sep 18 2015, 09:36 AM
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It's almost that time again.... winter!
Post your forecasts, thoughts and hopes for the upcoming season.

A few long range forecasts to digest:

http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/n...anuary-february

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...review/51471589

The Weather Channel article really simplifies things down to the 2 main factors that will impact this season: El Nino, and Atlantic blocking potential.
If blocking is weak or doesn't occur, this could be a sloppy winter for most of us.




--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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Apocalypse
post Sep 21 2015, 03:36 AM
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I think therapy sessions will be needed for everyone.
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MrMusic
post Sep 23 2015, 10:59 AM
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QUOTE(Apocalypse @ Sep 21 2015, 04:36 AM) *
I think therapy sessions will be needed for everyone.


agreed. haha

Not looking good so far.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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JFK
post Oct 18 2015, 07:37 AM
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NOAA's outlook.. It doesn't include Canada but you can probably make your own conclusions from it:



Attached File  Outlook_map_temp2015_2F_2000.jpg ( 885.45K ) Number of downloads: 7



http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/1...er-weather.html

J

This post has been edited by JFK: Oct 18 2015, 07:38 AM
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JFK
post Nov 12 2015, 02:27 PM
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Brett has a brief one liner on Canada's winter:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...ate-10/53547844

7. The latest seasonal forecast models (updated this week) still show widespread above-normal to well-above normal temperatures for most of Canada this coming winter.
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Nov 14 2015, 02:34 PM
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As long as there are periods of decent snow I will not complain about warmer winter this year.
Last year was terrible and regardless I am not excited about snow than cold personally
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puttin
post Nov 18 2015, 01:58 PM
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QUOTE(GreatWhiteTornado @ Nov 14 2015, 03:34 PM) *
As long as there are periods of decent snow I will not complain about warmer winter this year.
Last year was terrible and regardless I am not excited about snow than cold personally

An e-mail from Environment Canada about a possible snow storm this weekend for parts of Ontario. I just received it at 2:00 pm today. My work is part of their weather e-mail list...


Folks – just an early heads-up that we are monitoring a possible snowstorm in southern Ontario for the weekend. Currently, several models are in agreement that a low pressure system will develop over the US Midwest on Saturday, and will track northeastward across southwestern Ontario, then Algonquin Park, on Sunday night heading into Quebec Sunday morning. What does this mean? Along (and to the northwest of) the track of the low-pressure system, significant quantities of snow are likely. So…Grey-Bruce, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Haliburton, Algonquin Park, and North Bay…would receive the most snow. Way too early to say how much, but could easily be 15+ cm.

For areas along the shores of Lakes Erie and Ontario, and along the St.Lawrence River, temperatures would likely be milder, preventing much snowfall and instead letting rain be the predominant form of precipitation. This would include Simcoe County, Niagara Region, the GTA near Lake Ontario (not areas further north), Kingston, Brockville, and Cornwall. Areas in between: mostly snow (or a rain/snow mix) but less accumulation than regions further north and west.

Of course, this scenario will be refined as we move closer to the weekend. But this is your heads-up that winter is on its way and preparations should be rushed towards winter-readiness.

As you know, we have a spell of warm weather in store for the next couple of days. A cold front will cross the area on Thursday bringing a return to colder weather for Friday. As the cold southwesterly winds blow across Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, snowsquall activity is likely to develop in the lee of those lakes. So….Grey-Bruce and Parry Sound-Muskoka beware. A Special Weather Statement is likely to be issued for these areas today (Parry Sound-Muskoka in particular). But in the wake of the snowstorm, on Sunday, snowsqualls are likely to re-develop over the same areas.

Finally and very important (yes we know the timing couldn’t be worse, but it’s unavoidable):

On Sunday, November 22, between 4 a.m. and 7 a.m. EST, some of Environment Canada’s services may be temporarily unavailable including our Weather web site and e-mail services. Should you need to reach Environment Canada’s weather service during this period, please do so by using your after-hours contact information into our 24/7 centres (in Ontario, the Ontario Storm Prediction Centre).

If you have any questions regarding this matter please feel free to contact Peter Kimbell (613-949-8284) or Geoff Coulson (416-739-4466) before the weekend.

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kush61
post Nov 20 2015, 09:15 AM
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Hello...

Does anyone have an update about the potential for snow in SouthWestern Ontario Nov. 21/22 ?
Where is that low going to track?

Thank-you
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Jet Developer
post Nov 25 2015, 04:00 PM
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I am not sure how El Nino would affect the weather in Canada, but so far in Southern California it has had very little affect.


--------------------
Can you find me at the other place?
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MrMusic
post Nov 26 2015, 03:35 PM
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QUOTE(Jet Developer @ Nov 25 2015, 04:00 PM) *
I am not sure how El Nino would affect the weather in Canada, but so far in Southern California it has had very little affect.


generally speaking El Nino's cause Canada to be much milder than normal.
So far it's been the case this autumn, and long range ensembles show more of the same as we start winter.

November has been incredibly mild here.
Average daytime high should be 7 for the month of November.
We're averaging 13.5 so far this month.

No snow yet in Hamilton. Areas to the NW have had some, but I suspect it's melted with today's temp in the mid teens.

Most Canadians love El Nino years. Lol


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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travis3000
post Nov 27 2015, 10:28 AM
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I can confirm as of yesterday afternoon all the snow has melted up here, nothing even in the forested areas. We only had 5-10cm depending on the location, so it wasn't a lot to melt. I also had to drive up to Orillia yesterday for work and their snow was gone as well (they received 30cm). So this airmass has been killing the snow. By now I would say there is no snow left anywhere in SW/S/C/E Ontario.

Temps actually hit 15C for multiple hours last night, unreal for late November.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 39cm (18cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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JFK
post Nov 27 2015, 02:52 PM
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For the Montreal region, there is 20 times less snow in November then on the average.

The NAEFS has been pretty well solid red for November and will continue so far into December..

Today in Montreal we hit 15c, normals for this time is 1c.. Yesterday it was 10c. Granted, tomorrow we drop back down to normals.. but I see it creeping back up to 5c or so by mid week.

There have been very few below average days.

I don't know enough to say this is El Nino or not, but I can tell you, it's definitely warmer then last year !
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travis3000
post Nov 27 2015, 04:48 PM
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I snapshotted EC's forecast for the week. I took their Tuesday morning forecast. They were bang on for Tuesday at 4C, and Wednesday at 7C, then they fell off the wagon quite a bit, predicting a high of 7C for Thursday (we hit 15.5C), and a high of 9C today (we hit 15C). Their prediction for Sat, Sun, and Mon (which remains the exact same in today's forecast) was 0C each day.

My gut tells me we will go higher each of those days. If we do in fact beat 0C each of those days, EC will have underestimated 25 out of 30 of the days this month, getting 5 days bang on, and overestimating 0 days.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Nov 30 2015, 09:40 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 39cm (18cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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tml78
post Nov 27 2015, 05:10 PM
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[quote name='travis3000' date='Nov 27 2015, 05:48 PM' post='2036123']
I snapshotted EC's forecast for the week. I took their Tuesday morning forecast. They were bang on for Tuesday at 4C, and Wednesday at 7C, then they fell off the wagon quite a bit, predicting a high of 7C for Thursday (we hit 15.5C), and a high of 9C today (we hit 14C). Their prediction for Sat, Sun, and Mon (which remains the exact same in today's forecast) was 0C each day.

My gut tells me we will go higher each of those days. If we do in fact beat 0C each of those days, EC will have underestimated 25 out of 30 of the days this month, getting 5 days bang on, and overestimating 0 days.
[/quote

Very interesting...I usually trust EC over TWN,Accuweather & weather.com

Which model has been the most accurate so far?
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MrMusic
post Nov 28 2015, 09:07 AM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Nov 27 2015, 04:48 PM) *
I snapshotted EC's forecast for the week. I took their Tuesday morning forecast. They were bang on for Tuesday at 4C, and Wednesday at 7C, then they fell off the wagon quite a bit, predicting a high of 7C for Thursday (we hit 15.5C), and a high of 9C today (we hit 14C). Their prediction for Sat, Sun, and Mon (which remains the exact same in today's forecast) was 0C each day.

My gut tells me we will go higher each of those days. If we do in fact beat 0C each of those days, EC will have underestimated 25 out of 30 of the days this month, getting 5 days bang on, and overestimating 0 days.


Yea, been the same here. Not a good stretch of forecasting by them.
I'm now wondering when our first sub-zero high temp will be?
No sign of it happening anytime in the next 2 weeks based on the broader pattern.
Today with a NE flow over Lake Ontario will keep us down around 2 or 3. One of the coldest days yet.
But back to double digits early next week.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Nov 28 2015, 09:08 AM
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Very interesting...I usually trust EC over TWN,Accuweather & weather.com

Which model has been the most accurate so far?
[/quote]

In my neck of the woods, TWN has been much more accurate the past several months, not just recently. I heard the upgraded their modelling. Could be the case.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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travis3000
post Nov 30 2015, 09:40 PM
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From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





I usually vouch for EC but recently TWN has been more accurate with temperatures especially over the past couple months. EC has a bad record here, underestimating temps over 70% of the time, sometimes by as much as 5-7C. It's embarrasing on some days. They will get the odd day right, about 1/6 days. I think they need some upgrading to their equipment.

Even up here in Alliston, ON we have yet to record a sub zero daytime high (although we came darn close on the 23rd recording a high of 0.3C). Looking into the long range, I see no sign of below 0C daytime highs at all. This could be the latest season for it to occur. It almost always happens in November.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 39cm (18cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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MrMusic
post Nov 30 2015, 10:20 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Nov 30 2015, 09:40 PM) *
I usually vouch for EC but recently TWN has been more accurate with temperatures especially over the past couple months. EC has a bad record here, underestimating temps over 70% of the time, sometimes by as much as 5-7C. It's embarrasing on some days. They will get the odd day right, about 1/6 days. I think they need some upgrading to their equipment.

Even up here in Alliston, ON we have yet to record a sub zero daytime high (although we came darn close on the 23rd recording a high of 0.3C). Looking into the long range, I see no sign of below 0C daytime highs at all. This could be the latest season for it to occur. It almost always happens in November.


yea, the next 10-15 days here looks downright mild for this time of year. Many days in the 7-9 range. Will probably break 10 a couple times.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Dec 2 2015, 09:29 AM
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In my 14-day forecast from TWN, not only is there no days with a high temp below zero, there's not a single night with a LOW below zero!


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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SixthSense
post Dec 2 2015, 09:31 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Nov 30 2015, 10:20 PM) *
yea, the next 10-15 days here looks downright mild for this time of year. Many days in the 7-9 range. Will probably break 10 a couple times.



Agreed. Although you can't bank on anything this far out. Long range models hinting at a bit change (not a complete pattern change) in the current persistence of +NAO and the subsequent split flow across North America. While not a complete pattern shift, i think the gates will finally open, allowing some fresh arctic air to dive south into the central US and eventually the Northeast. I think we will see some progressive arctic surges (from west to east) starting around December 17th.
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