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> Winter 2017-18
snowgeek93
post Dec 5 2017, 09:12 AM
Post #141




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Dreary, miserable morning around here.

The cold may be coming but no real snow threats unfortunately.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 6 2017, 11:05 PM
Post #142




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Interested system potential for around the 12th for S ON. Clipper type system that looks like it has the potential to strengthen as it gets to the lakes. Need to keep an eye on this one.
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snowgeek93
post Dec 6 2017, 11:08 PM
Post #143




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There's definitely some snow forecast from clippers over the next few days. How much snow we get remains the question.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 7 2017, 10:19 AM
Post #144




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Hereís the 06z GFS with the snow threat for the 12th. The 00z was more west and more impactful for S ON. 06z moved a bit east but is still shown as having a good amount of moisture with it. Will have to see if things move back west on the models.

This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Dec 7 2017, 10:20 AM
Attached File(s)
Attached File  1B8AEC44_E017_4671_84E3_066214A629BB.png ( 176.23K ) Number of downloads: 6
 
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travis3000
post Dec 7 2017, 12:43 PM
Post #145




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12z GFS keeps it as a close call.... grazes Southern ON. Not a big hit for my area, but for northern shore of Lake Erie and Ontario it keeps the hope alive.

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2017_12_07_at_12.39.18_PM.jpg ( 733.19K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  Screen_Shot_2017_12_07_at_12.39.26_PM.jpg ( 753.4K ) Number of downloads: 1


Total accumulation from this system:

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2017_12_07_at_12.42.39_PM.jpg ( 515.92K ) Number of downloads: 9


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Dec 7 2017, 01:54 PM
Post #146




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Clippers are usually hit or miss around here but any snow would be welcome at this point. Looks like a few cm's are possible in the area.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 7 2017, 05:22 PM
Post #147




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Nice run on the 18z GFS. Basically a direct hit for S ON. I think this deserves its own thread if someone wants to start it. Just to be clear this isnít your normal clipper that drifts in and out. It looks like it will be interacting with the energy on the coast which should help strengthen the system quite a bit if the GFS is to be believed. Either way if things continue on this path it looks like the first widespread snow accumulation for the lower lakes.

This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Dec 7 2017, 05:23 PM
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travis3000
post Dec 7 2017, 05:50 PM
Post #148




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18z GFS showing a nice 10-15cm widespread.

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2017_12_07_at_5.49.55_PM.jpg ( 467.57K ) Number of downloads: 6


This post has been edited by travis3000: Dec 7 2017, 05:51 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 26cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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newfiebrit
post Dec 8 2017, 09:07 AM
Post #149




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Expecting a bit of a storm here Saturday night into Sunday, though it's only a bit of snow to heavy rain here, winds up to 100kmh. Pinning alot of hopes on the pattern change from around mid month, looks like will be stormy but always a lottery with the track and could mean more rain than snow here, I liked the 00z Euro though for next weekend:



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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 8 2017, 09:31 AM
Post #150




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QUOTE(newfiebrit @ Dec 8 2017, 09:07 AM) *
Expecting a bit of a storm here Saturday night into Sunday, though it's only a bit of snow to heavy rain here, winds up to 100kmh. Pinning alot of hopes on the pattern change from around mid month, looks like will be stormy but always a lottery with the track and could mean more rain than snow here, I liked the 00z Euro though for next weekend:


It does seem that the pattern as it stands now is not in your favour for frozen precip. Despite the Center of the trough placement being in a good area for you, the jet stream seems to want to take systems to your west and keep you in the warm sector atm. Like you say though things will probably change later in the month.
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newfiebrit
post Dec 8 2017, 11:37 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Dec 8 2017, 12:01 PM) *
It does seem that the pattern as it stands now is not in your favour for frozen precip. Despite the Center of the trough placement being in a good area for you, the jet stream seems to want to take systems to your west and keep you in the warm sector atm. Like you say though things will probably change later in the month.


Every winter here is a parade of storms, a bit like a scatter gun approach....some are hits (snow) and other miss with mostly rain or a messy mix. 9/10 the biggest snow storms for the Avalon don't effect anyone else in Atlantic Canada. December is not usually the best month here especially the 1st half (even classic Decembers like 2013 only got going with snow around the 11th), Jan-March is really when the best spells usually come. I must say I have lived here a few years now and been privileged (of course people who lived here all their lives will say it's a curse!) to see a massive amount of snow especially compared to the UK, so I am well equipped to cope for spells of rainy systems, I know the snow will come eventually! It's actually been snowing quite heavy on and off all day, but temps around 1c just too wet to stick.

This post has been edited by newfiebrit: Dec 8 2017, 11:41 AM
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stuffradio
post Dec 8 2017, 12:56 PM
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There appears to be a glimmer of hope that I might actually get snow after all on the SW coast.
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newfiebrit
post Dec 10 2017, 03:02 PM
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We have just had the warmest ever December day on record (going back to the 1870's):

QUOTE
Rodney Barney‏
@rcbstormpost
High 17.9įC at St. John's #YYT: new record high for entire month of December [old rec: 17.3įC set Dec 13, 2008].


Very bizarre though extremes one way or the other are becoming the norm now, once the rain stopped for a few hours late morning it gave me chance to go outside in a T shirt and service the snowblower (though was a bit breezy with winds gusting to 80+kmh), changed oil, put on new belt, greased cables etc is all working good for when the snow finally arrives....assuming it does and we are not going to have a twilight zone winter. laugh.gif

Kind of glad we haven't had much snow yet as at least no heartbreak when a mild day like today comes along.

This post has been edited by newfiebrit: Dec 10 2017, 03:03 PM
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 10 2017, 03:56 PM
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QUOTE(newfiebrit @ Dec 10 2017, 03:02 PM) *
We have just had the warmest ever December day on record (going back to the 1870's):
Very bizarre though extremes one way or the other are becoming the norm now, once the rain stopped for a few hours late morning it gave me chance to go outside in a T shirt and service the snowblower (though was a bit breezy with winds gusting to 80+kmh), changed oil, put on new belt, greased cables etc is all working good for when the snow finally arrives....assuming it does and we are not going to have a twilight zone winter. laugh.gif

Kind of glad we haven't had much snow yet as at least no heartbreak when a mild day like today comes along.


Almost 18 degrees in St. Johnís in meteorological winter. Thatís crazy.
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 10 2017, 04:02 PM
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Looks like there is several opportunities for systems for ON in the LR. Euro has a interesting looking system for around the 18th/19th and thatís after several other precip chances. Also looks like more moderate temps so precip type will be up for debate.
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newfiebrit
post Dec 10 2017, 04:14 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Dec 10 2017, 06:26 PM) *
Almost 18 degrees in St. Johnís in meteorological winter. Thatís crazy.


I know, we often struggle to be that warm in summer! We expect the odd day just breaking into the double digits throughout winter when we're in the warm sector of storms, but this very unusual, must of been sucking up some real tropical air...we had a humidex of 22c at one point!
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snowgeek93
post Dec 10 2017, 05:32 PM
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QUOTE(newfiebrit @ Dec 10 2017, 05:14 PM) *
I know, we often struggle to be that warm in summer! We expect the odd day just breaking into the double digits throughout winter when we're in the warm sector of storms, but this very unusual, must of been sucking up some real tropical air...we had a humidex of 22c at one point!

Wow, for once I'm glad I'm not you right now. I expect that to change throughout the winter though... laugh.gif


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 11.4cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 6
Days with Snow Cover: 2

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 8.6cm (34.2cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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newfiebrit
post Dec 10 2017, 07:31 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Dec 10 2017, 08:02 PM) *
Wow, for once I'm glad I'm not you right now. I expect that to change throughout the winter though... laugh.gif


I was happy with it, may as well go for extreme warmth if there's no snow about!. In my mind true winter is Jan to March here, anything in December is a bonus and we have a chance of decent snow the week before Christmas so December not a write off yet.
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Apocalypse
post Yesterday, 07:23 PM
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Imagine if this came to be.

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png ( 190.67K ) Number of downloads: 10
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akula
post Yesterday, 11:51 PM
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we are definitely due for an X-mas / boxing day storm!
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