Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

152 Pages V  « < 150 151 152  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Bering Sea Rule and Typhoon Rule and Southern Oscillation Index Delta, Forecasting based on the BSR and TR and SOID
jdrenken
post Jan 21 2018, 02:58 PM
Post #3021




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 21 2018, 01:48 PM) *
So kinda new to some of these rules. I do remember that recurving typhoon means trough in the eastern US. So I checked out what was going on in the West Pacific. It doesn't usually look like this does it? What are the possible ramifications downstream? Similar pattern goes on in Gulf of Alaska.


Hey stretchct! Per the paper, the correlation is 6-10 days after what happens in East Asia we will see downstream effects in the ECONUS. That being said, you can see in the paper that the EAR (East Asia Rule/Typhoon Rule), scored lower than the BSR. Just like the BSR, I stopped looking at medium range modeled solutions in those regions due to being burned on multiple occasions. The most I go out is 96hr so keep that in mind.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stretchct
post Jan 21 2018, 04:07 PM
Post #3022




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,014
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 21 2018, 02:58 PM) *
Hey stretchct! Per the paper, the correlation is 6-10 days after what happens in East Asia we will see downstream effects in the ECONUS. That being said, you can see in the paper that the EAR (East Asia Rule/Typhoon Rule), scored lower than the BSR. Just like the BSR, I stopped looking at medium range modeled solutions in those regions due to being burned on multiple occasions. The most I go out is 96hr so keep that in mind.


"For the EAR, the highest correlations were obtained for the 500 hPa heights at Seoul, South Korea (37.5N 127E), and those at Nashville, TN (BNA)"

So IF I'm reading the paper correctly, the best correlation for the EAR is Seoul to Nashville, so if I'm 850 miles (roughly) northeast of Nashville, I should be correlated with 850 miles northeast of Seoul.

Making that upper low right around my area 60hrs+6-10 days - so 8.5 to 12.5 days out. And the overall vortex pattern should last for a while to the north of Nashville.
Attached File  EAR_question_map.png ( 172.49K ) Number of downloads: 2


Does it work with the actual heights or temps, or just the anomalies? Should be fun.

This post has been edited by stretchct: Jan 21 2018, 04:07 PM


--------------------
Snow maps are pretty.

My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

2-18 6"
2-7 1"
2-2 .5"
1-30 2"
1-17 1"
1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"
36" season to date
First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"[/color][color="#FF8C00"]
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OSNW3
post Jan 22 2018, 12:24 PM
Post #3023




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,985
Joined: 29-June 11
From: Oshkosh, WI
Member No.: 25,792





QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 21 2018, 03:07 PM) *
"For the EAR, the highest correlations were obtained for the 500 hPa heights at Seoul, South Korea (37.5N 127E), and those at Nashville, TN (BNA)"

So IF I'm reading the paper correctly, the best correlation for the EAR is Seoul to Nashville, so if I'm 850 miles (roughly) northeast of Nashville, I should be correlated with 850 miles northeast of Seoul.

Making that upper low right around my area 60hrs+6-10 days - so 8.5 to 12.5 days out. And the overall vortex pattern should last for a while to the north of Nashville.
Attached File  EAR_question_map.png ( 172.49K ) Number of downloads: 2


Does it work with the actual heights or temps, or just the anomalies? Should be fun.


Yes, the point correlation is equidistant and can be used 1:1 if desired. I created a "true size" overlay for the EAR a while back and host forecast maps based on it. You can find them here. Click on "Maps" in the EAR section. I translate the EAR connection with H5 flow, anomaly and/or a rate of change. Enjoy!


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Jan 22 2018, 12:29 PM
Post #3024




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,753
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Jan 22 2018, 11:24 AM) *
Yes, the point correlation is equidistant and can be used 1:1 if desired. I created a "true size" overlay for the EAR a while back and host forecast maps based on it. You can find them here. Click on "Maps" in the EAR section. I translate the EAR connection with H5 flow, anomaly and/or a rate of change. Enjoy!




I remember on the old website it was easy to access archives & look back at previous EAR maps. Do you still have an easy access archive now?

This post has been edited by grace: Jan 22 2018, 12:30 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OSNW3
post Jan 22 2018, 12:34 PM
Post #3025




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,985
Joined: 29-June 11
From: Oshkosh, WI
Member No.: 25,792





QUOTE(grace @ Jan 22 2018, 11:29 AM) *
I remember on the old website it was easy to access archives & look back at previous EAR maps. Do you still have an easy access archive now?


Yes. http://consonantchaos.com/archive.html

It is not user friendly, just a list of files, but there is a decoder ring.

Example;

EAR Filename: "170903140055.jpg"

"170903xxxxxx" = YYMMDD
"xxxxxx140055" = East Asia Rule

So look for all files with suffix "140055" regarding EAR.

EDIT: And to move quickly between days, just change the date in the url filename.


This post has been edited by OSNW3: Jan 22 2018, 12:36 PM


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Jan 22 2018, 12:44 PM
Post #3026




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 21 2018, 03:07 PM) *
"For the EAR, the highest correlations were obtained for the 500 hPa heights at Seoul, South Korea (37.5N 127E), and those at Nashville, TN (BNA)"

So IF I'm reading the paper correctly, the best correlation for the EAR is Seoul to Nashville, so if I'm 850 miles (roughly) northeast of Nashville, I should be correlated with 850 miles northeast of Seoul.

Making that upper low right around my area 60hrs+6-10 days - so 8.5 to 12.5 days out. And the overall vortex pattern should last for a while to the north of Nashville.
Attached File  EAR_question_map.png ( 172.49K ) Number of downloads: 2


Does it work with the actual heights or temps, or just the anomalies? Should be fun.


The paper used anomalies of 500mb heights. Even though some people preach that "you don't live at 500mb", it can be used successfully if applied correctly.

In a literal sense, you are better off knowing that using a 1:1 correlation will only get you in trouble. This premise is not scientifically based and has proven that it's foolish to follow a 1:1 as the earth doesn't work that way. Can it be close? Of course! Again, go into organic forecasting of BSR & EAR in that they are pattern recognition tools and not the "holy grail".


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Jan 22 2018, 12:55 PM
Post #3027




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,753
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Jan 22 2018, 11:34 AM) *
Yes. http://consonantchaos.com/archive.html

It is not user friendly, just a list of files, but there is a decoder ring.

Example;

EAR Filename: "170903140055.jpg"

"170903xxxxxx" = YYMMDD
"xxxxxx140055" = East Asia Rule

So look for all files with suffix "140055" regarding EAR.

EDIT: And to move quickly between days, just change the date in the url filename.



Thanks
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OSNW3
post Jan 22 2018, 01:10 PM
Post #3028




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,985
Joined: 29-June 11
From: Oshkosh, WI
Member No.: 25,792





QUOTE(grace @ Jan 22 2018, 11:55 AM) *
Thanks


No sweat! My pleasure.


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
idecline
post Jan 22 2018, 09:40 PM
Post #3029




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,184
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 22 2018, 12:44 PM) *
The paper used anomalies of 500mb heights. Even though some people preach that "you don't live at 500mb", it can be used successfully if applied correctly.

In a literal sense, you are better off knowing that using a 1:1 correlation will only get you in trouble. This premise is not scientifically based and has proven that it's foolish to follow a 1:1 as the earth doesn't work that way. Can it be close? Of course! Again, go into organic forecasting of BSR & EAR in that they are pattern recognition tools and not the "holy grail".


...idee took a lot of English classes in college...can you say 'hyperbole'... laugh.gif

QUOTE
Joe Bastardi
‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi
1h1 hour ago

Unlike last winter, There will be some of the coldest air in the world ready to strike when MJO goes into the holy grail of cold phases in Feb 8,1,2,3
forecasted on ECMWF to where it was around Dec 17 GLAAM also heading higher Winter in west for now, but east target after thaw


...JB sure can go out on a limb to further his 'rose-colored glasses' (blues if it came to a temperature map)

...idee doesn't understand why 'forecasters' use an 'index' to promote their agenda...reality is not an 'index'...an 'index' is a partial description of a recognizable 'pattern'...yet it is not the 'reality'...

...oh yeah...no reasonable thinking allowed...MJO is not the only 'player' in town folks... dry.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OSNW3
post Jan 25 2018, 05:22 PM
Post #3030




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,985
Joined: 29-June 11
From: Oshkosh, WI
Member No.: 25,792





QUOTE(idecline @ Jan 22 2018, 08:40 PM) *
...idee took a lot of English classes in college...can you say 'hyperbole'... laugh.gif


Literally.

QUOTE(idecline @ Jan 22 2018, 08:40 PM) *
...idee doesn't understand why 'forecasters' use an 'index' to promote their agenda...reality is not an 'index'...an 'index' is a partial description of a recognizable 'pattern'...yet it is not the 'reality'...


It is going to rain. A little. Maybe.





--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OSNW3
post Jan 30 2018, 09:23 AM
Post #3031




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,985
Joined: 29-June 11
From: Oshkosh, WI
Member No.: 25,792





A robust blocking signal per BSR extended GFS.




Attached File(s)
Attached File  bsr_blk_hov.jpg ( 637.16K ) Number of downloads: 2
 


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Jan 31 2018, 08:02 PM
Post #3032




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,267
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





Gif from cranky



--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 4 2018, 12:54 AM
Post #3033




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,523
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Major system in east Asia around the 8th. Large trough dips down from Siberia into Mongolia then pushes east and deepens. This would correlate roughly to February 15. We're starting to get closer to the warm season, so there may be some severe weather ahead of the system.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 1 (Last: 2/15/18)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 9 2018, 09:23 PM
Post #3034




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,792
Joined: 29-January 09
From: Tn
Member No.: 17,230





Like the way the RRWT looks long range.I took out the CFS forecast and now you can see the enhanced convection getting into the IO into the 2nd week of March.We'll see.This could POSSIBLY be severe weather South,Mid South into the OV towards the end of MarchAttached File  13.png ( 370.05K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Feb 9 2018, 09:25 PM


--------------------
1"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 9 2018, 11:34 PM
Post #3035




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,792
Joined: 29-January 09
From: Tn
Member No.: 17,230





This also would be the time frame what Eric Webb is talking about after the MJO gets out of the IOAttached File  Eric_Webb_on_Twitter___Using_RMM__the_MJO_has_spent___10_days_in_phase_6_7_w__amplitude_between_3_5_4_sigma__Yikes__This_is_almost_certainly_going_to_trigger_a_massive_downwelling_oceanic_Kelvin_Wave_that_ll_cross_the_EQ_.png ( 187.19K ) Number of downloads: 1


--------------------
1"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

152 Pages V  « < 150 151 152
Reply to this topicStart new topic
3 User(s) are reading this topic (3 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 25th February 2018 - 11:06 AM