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> Long Range Summer 2018 Outlooks and Discussions, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends, excitement, and mor
bradjl2009
post Aug 4 2018, 11:10 AM
Post #241




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QUOTE(stretchct @ Aug 4 2018, 11:24 AM) *
Updated look at highs for the next 10-15 days, euro and gfs. GFS continues to overheat (I hope). Perhaps someone at NCEP is already looking at this, but its been fairly evident there is a warm bias lately on the GFS. Should this continue at lower temps/into the winter, it should make for some surprises.

[attachment=357227:8_4_euro_temps.gif]
[attachment=357228:8_4_gfs_temps.gif]

I've been noticing this too over the summer, the GFS has been modeling 2-4 degrees higher than the actual highs, hopefully that holds true the next few days as well, as it's about to heat up. Ever since they "upgraded" the GFS a year ago, it has been really dramatic with temperatures on the high side.

This post has been edited by bradjl2009: Aug 4 2018, 11:13 AM
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stretchct
post Aug 4 2018, 11:36 AM
Post #242




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I hate probability maps like this, but it gives you the idea.

This post has been edited by stretchct: Aug 4 2018, 11:37 AM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Aug 5 2018, 09:22 AM
Post #243




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Newtown, CT
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Been following this chance of heat over 90 degrees for a while on this thread. Not sure it will amount to an official heatwave though based on how widespread and duration. Plus I typically don't open threads. In any event we're looking at a heat advisory issued by Upton.





--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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so_whats_happeni...
post Aug 5 2018, 10:02 AM
Post #244




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From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(stretchct @ Aug 4 2018, 12:36 PM) *

I hate probability maps like this, but it gives you the idea.


Almost forgot to comment on this looks about right almost kind of nino like... but weird to see that at this point considering we just flipped. Luckily that forcing isnt as noticeable in the summer up here but if I do remember this seems fairly similar so far to 2011 with the copious amounts of rainfall we saw in the east and the earthquake that occurred at the end of august, maybe another repeat?

I will say what a horrible winter that was!

QUOTE(stretchct @ Aug 5 2018, 10:22 AM) *
Been following this chance of heat over 90 degrees for a while on this thread. Not sure it will amount to an official heatwave though based on how widespread and duration. Plus I typically don't open threads. In any event we're looking at a heat advisory issued by Upton.




Yea coastal plain warming from some downsloping effect not too strong but areas will flirt with 90 probably push higher in the big cities and then from here on it will depend on breezes and any TS pop up activity that may break those chances. Not a real strong heatwave as we have seen with the last 2 ( i think there may have been another but am unsure) but potential is there in the coastal plain.

Im going to I think at the beginning of the year start recording weather on my comp at home to have data for down the road so I can reference back a lot easier. Which includes having to set up a rain gauge I wanna see if they have extras at work that they are willing to part with if not Ill make shift one when I take a trip to the Depot.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Aug 5 2018, 10:05 AM


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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NWOhioChaser
post Aug 7 2018, 12:51 PM
Post #245




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From: Monclova, Ohio
Member No.: 14,982





I didn't know where else to put this since no thread was started for the event and I didn't want to create one for it. Yesterday's marginal/slight risk verified pretty well locally. A lot of wind reports and a few funnels in the area were sighted in Fulton and Lucas counties, which prompted dispatch to sound the sirens out there. The biggest story was the rainfall. Many places received their monthly total yesterday alone. I personally recorded 1.74" of rain and a 53 mph wind gust per my station. A few pop-up storms formed around 2-3PM but the main batch came between 8:30-12:30. FREQUENT lightning with the storms and got to see some CTC/CTG strikes. Really cool to see the law of averages come in play. Got my storm fix in what seemed like an age. Below is 13ABCs map of estimated rainfall. The training of the cells last night is clear as day.

This post has been edited by NWOhioChaser: Aug 7 2018, 12:52 PM
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Attached File  yesterday.gif ( 16.81K ) Number of downloads: 0
 
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NWOhioChaser
post Aug 7 2018, 05:22 PM
Post #246




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More rain this evening for the places that were waterlogged last night.
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NWOhioChaser
post Aug 11 2018, 07:30 PM
Post #247




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From: Monclova, Ohio
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No wonder this place is closing...deader than doornail here. We could get a tornado outbreak and we'd manage 10 people. Most of the posts being from Cliche
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