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idecline
Posted on: Mar 24 2017, 07:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


More rain through tonight...into tomorrow morning...another storm in the queue for Sunday night...
Attached Image

OPC 48hr shows approaching storm
Attached Image


Massive low in central Pacific seems to go north...letting ridge build in...not much confidence in HP lately...
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


Not much rain after Tuesday? Will the 'buckle' tighten the flow once more? Will there be one more storm series for the first week of April?

El-Lipsis weather is counting on the strong Pacific jet to rule the roost until the end of April...albeit more northerly track...
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2223536 · Replies: · Views: 59,073

idecline
Posted on: Mar 24 2017, 06:33 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(idecline @ Mar 22 2017, 06:57 PM) *
Oakdale, KS on 03/23/17

Roland, OK on 03/24/17

Maumelle, AR on 03/25/17
Columbus, MS on 03/26/17
Duncan, OK on 03/27/17


Changing to:

Muscle Shoals, AL on 03/25/17

Henryetta, OK on 03/26/17

Helena, AR on 03/27/17

Temple, TX on 03/28/17

Marshall, TX on 03/29/17
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2223533 · Replies: · Views: 6,090

idecline
Posted on: Mar 22 2017, 07:09 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Heavy, heavy downpours on Tuesday night in the Bay Area...clearing until next storm...
Attached Image

OPC 48 hr shows possible Friday storm...
Attached Image


and is big storm in central Pacific headed towards us...
Attached Image


or just glancing blow with giant low forming in much of the N. Central Pacific Ocean...buckle in the jet?

...El-Lipsis weather is omitting information until things become clearer...(next week? dry.gif )
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2223300 · Replies: · Views: 59,073

idecline
Posted on: Mar 22 2017, 06:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Oakdale, KS on 03/23/17

Roland, OK on 03/24/17

Maumelle, AR on 03/25/17

Columbus, MS on 03/26/17

Duncan, OK on 03/27/17
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2223299 · Replies: · Views: 6,090

idecline
Posted on: Mar 18 2017, 02:09 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(idecline @ Mar 16 2017, 08:19 PM) *
Fort Smith, AR on 03/17/17

Itta Bena, MS on 03/18/17

Henryetta, OK on 03/19/17

Duncan, OK on 03/20/17

Athens, GA on 03/21/17


Changing to:

Hannibal. MO on 03/19/17

Metropolis, IL on 03/20/17

Hamlet, NC on 03/21/17

Littletown, AZ on 03/22/17
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2222527 · Replies: · Views: 6,090

idecline
Posted on: Mar 16 2017, 08:33 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


After our beautiful streak of sunny days...mild to warm weather will end for the weekend...a storm to our west is forming and will batter the dominant high into submission...(especially since the eastern trough has gone to the east) dry.gif
Attached Image

Another even richer system is to the far eastern Pacific...

OPC 48hr shows our Saturday night system...
Attached Image


and two days later the arrival of what could be another 'series' of Pacific jet directed storms...bullseye California?...
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


Could be a very wet week ahead....

QPF's for the #'s people...
Attached Image


rolleyes.gif Hello to more Pacific storms...and associated severe weather in the center of the CONUS...
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2222083 · Replies: · Views: 59,073

idecline
Posted on: Mar 16 2017, 08:19 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Fort Smith, AR on 03/17/17

Itta Bena, MS on 03/18/17

Henryetta, OK on 03/19/17

Duncan, OK on 03/20/17

Athens, GA on 03/21/17
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2222079 · Replies: · Views: 6,090

idecline
Posted on: Mar 13 2017, 07:39 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Kendall, FL on 03/14/17

Astoria, OR on 03/15/17
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2217828 · Replies: · Views: 6,090

idecline
Posted on: Mar 8 2017, 03:44 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(mmi16 @ Dec 26 2016, 05:52 PM) *
bears


beast
  Forum: Games, Contests, Etc. · Post Preview: #2205459 · Replies: · Views: 541,945

idecline
Posted on: Mar 8 2017, 03:42 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(mmi16 @ Dec 26 2016, 05:53 PM) *
Home Run!


Nobody Home?

blink.gif
  Forum: Games, Contests, Etc. · Post Preview: #2205458 · Replies: · Views: 2,833,408

idecline
Posted on: Mar 8 2017, 03:41 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(mmi16 @ Mar 2 2017, 09:13 AM) *
Lincoln, NE


Nashua, NH
  Forum: Games, Contests, Etc. · Post Preview: #2205457 · Replies: · Views: 965,044

idecline
Posted on: Mar 8 2017, 02:59 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Carthage, MO on 03/09/17

Itta Bena, MS on 03/10/17

Pflugerville, TX on 03/11/17

Matagorda, TX on 03/12/17

Meridian, MS on 03/13/17

  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2205417 · Replies: · Views: 6,090

idecline
Posted on: Mar 6 2017, 07:55 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


For a look from the Pacific point of view...

OPC 96hr upper air (500mb) forecast:

Attached Image


...will the jet keep the 'loopty loop' out at 170W or will it 'bridge the gap'...a big precursor for the next 2 weeks...

HPC QPF's for the next week of storminess in the East:

Attached Image


...and then...(inquiring minds want to know) unsure.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2203976 · Replies: · Views: 33,415

idecline
Posted on: Mar 6 2017, 07:46 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Sunday was a day of unstable air...numerous showers, thunderstorms, and some hail...chilly air for California...
Monday is a bit nicer...a few showers with less convection and not too much wind...
Attached Image

Lots of moisture still present in the atmosphere...the dry air is compressed by the lingering trough...
it just seems that all of the 'normal' high pressure systems seem to fail to create much of a ridge and are shunted north or south by the amazingly strong Pacific jet...

OPC 48hr shows the eventual breakdown of our brief ridge...
Attached Image


again the jet gets buckled and then straightens...sending the beginning of what could be another stream (not quite 'river' wink.gif ) into the West starting next week...perhaps into late March...(mid January redux?)

OPC 96hr shows the weekend storm...
Attached Image


...and the eventual 'straightening in the jet stream...let's hope the early spring 'warmth' sends the jet a slight bit to the north of the Bay Area with the major rainfall... unsure.gif

rolleyes.gif ...are they sure?...how about after the 14th of the month?...much to be sorted out...inquiring minds farther East want to know...will it snow?...thunderstorms in tow?...or just so-so?

Excellent weather dilemmas ahead...and "El-Lipsis" leaves much unsaid... unsure.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2203969 · Replies: · Views: 59,073

idecline
Posted on: Mar 3 2017, 05:26 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Rain...that was the forecast by many...it seems to be more of a shower than rain looking at Water Vapor...
Attached Image

OPC 48hr doesn't say much either...the bulk of the rain the next week seems headed much further north...
Attached Image


By Monday the upper air pattern will have sorted itself out...don't be surprised to see ridging across the West... unsure.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2202704 · Replies: · Views: 59,073

idecline
Posted on: Mar 3 2017, 04:58 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


McAllen, TX on 03/04/17

Missouri City, TX on 03/05/17

Eufaula, OK on 03/06/17

Tallulah, LA on 03/07/17

Eufaula, AL on 03/08/17
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2202691 · Replies: · Views: 6,090

idecline
Posted on: Mar 1 2017, 05:55 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Kendall, FL on 03/02/17 huh.gif
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2202348 · Replies: · Views: 6,090

idecline
Posted on: Mar 1 2017, 05:52 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Cool, dry weather through Saturday...Colder northern track front looks to come through Sunday...then...
Attached Image

OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


After front moves through everyone in the Bay Area may be singing "Sunshine"... cool.gif

World Party~ "Sunshine"...www.youtube.com/watch?v=BErHAZtF6JE
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2202345 · Replies: · Views: 59,073

idecline
Posted on: Mar 1 2017, 05:28 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Looks like a lot of 'Highs' in the next two weeks...

OPC 48hr 500mb
Attached Image

One Two...buckle my shoes
OPC 96hr 500mb
Attached Image

Three Four...Shut the door
NWS Day 7
Attached Image

Five Six...Pick up sticks

...Therefore...Seven Eight...lay them straight...Nine Ten...Do It Again!

huh.gif

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2202340 · Replies: · Views: 33,415

idecline
Posted on: Mar 1 2017, 04:59 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(mmi16 @ Dec 26 2016, 05:44 PM) *
Yellowstone National Park, WY


Kendall, FL
  Forum: Games, Contests, Etc. · Post Preview: #2202328 · Replies: · Views: 965,044

idecline
Posted on: Feb 28 2017, 03:16 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


rolleyes.gif Great analysis MaineJay...

Without the significant trade winds...then the upwelling cannot happen at a very high rate...upwelling scours away the warmer surface water so that cooler water can surface...

living in California...we often have periods of strong winds from the NW which create a lot of upwelling...if the winds are light and variable they often cannot stir the surface enough to reach the cooler water below.

I agree that a temperature discrepancy would be dire indeed...me thinks that the slow onset Nino created a very disorganized tropical situation...which has resulted in our 'fortuitous' heavy rainfall in California.

idee personal rant #23,004 dry.gif all the below quote is only idee's personal view...apologies to any idee offends
QUOTE
Modoki..'shmodoki'...idee believes the whole definition of a 'modoki' El Nino is a sham...perhaps invented by JMA to get some creds in weather circles...to me a 'modoki' is not a true 'El Nino' regardless of what foreign offices say...it does not change the atmospheric patterns to the degree that true El Nino's or even La Nina's do...
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2201681 · Replies: · Views: 6,226

idecline
Posted on: Feb 28 2017, 02:12 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Feb 27 2017, 07:47 PM) *
Your location comes up around 25 miles wsw of Harrisburg and I see no reports close and obviously nowhere close to NJ.


no...
Attached Image

my location (re: Accuweather is just south of Philadelphia)

? I'm in last place...just trying for any points at all...
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2201657 · Replies: · Views: 6,090

idecline
Posted on: Feb 27 2017, 06:54 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(idecline @ Feb 24 2017, 07:16 PM) *
Sticking with:

Village Green-Green Ridge, PA on 02/25/17

Muenster, TX on 02/26/17

Kingsville, LA on 02/27/17

Pearl, MS on 02/28/17

Warner Robins, GA on 03/01/17


Changing to:

Poplar Bluff, MO on 02/28/17

Bowling Green, KY on 03/01/17
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2201387 · Replies: · Views: 6,090

idecline
Posted on: Feb 27 2017, 06:45 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Feb 26 2017, 05:34 PM) *
February 25 Single Day Standings

andyhb, Reamstown PA - 15pts
ColoradoChinook, Pottsville PA - 8pts
snowlover2, Scranton PA - 7pts
melissa from illinois, Baltimore MD - 6pts
WeatherDudeNYC, Wayne PA - 2pts
idecline, Village Green-Green Ridge PA - 0pts

2017 Overall Round 1 Standings Through February 25

1. andyhb - 57pts.
2. snowlover2 - 38pts
3. WeatherDudeNYC - 34pts
4. ColoradoChinook - 23pts
5. melissa from illinois - 20pts2220
6. joseph507123 - 15pts
7. idecline - 4pts


Could you double check my score from this day...re:
QUOTE
2220 60 TURNERSVILLE GLOUCESTER NJ 3977 7506 (PHI)


this seems to be in my guess area...and perhaps others reported by Philadelphia office?
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2201384 · Replies: · Views: 6,090

idecline
Posted on: Feb 24 2017, 07:31 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,886
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Still dry...albeit some clouds, a cool north wind, highs in the 50's...

Storms to our west seem to be retrograding for time being...small energy will ride the jet into West
Attached Image

OPC pacific 48hr shows discombobulated picture for early Sunday morning... dry.gif
Attached Image


Northern trough may cut in front of slowed southern stream...with high nosing in...cutting-off sub-tropical flow?
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


El-Lipsis consensus picks... tongue.gif
Warning: these picks are for 'entertainment' only...no wagering please...
Dry Monday thru Thursday...2/1

Rain until March...8/1

Light rain Sat. and Mon. morning...8/5

Light showers on weekend...7/5

Southern Low(s) move in...heavy rain...10/1

Pick'em... laugh.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2200495 · Replies: · Views: 59,073

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