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> January 2 - 5th Central / Eastern Canada Storm, Observations
bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 04:32 AM
Post #1




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WPC surface forecast for day 5:

Attached File  9lhwbg_conus.gif ( 28.37K ) Number of downloads: 0


Discussion - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

QUOTE
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OVERALL REASONALLY AGREE IN SHOWING THAT
A STRONG NERN PAC MEAN RIDGE WILL ENCOURAGE AMPLIFYING/REINFORCING
WRN US TROUGHING ALOFT NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT SERIES OF SYSTEMS DIG
SHARPLY SOUTHWARD.

SUBSEQUENT NEWD EJECTION OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
E-CENTRAL US WILL FURTHER SPIN UP DEEPENED LOWS AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ORGANIZED PCPN INCLUDING AN EMERGING
SRN/E-CENTRAL TO ERN US HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. MEANWHILE EXPECT
OVERTOP QUITE A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH WIDESPREAD RECORD COLD
TEMP POTENTIAL TO INCREASINGLY SPILL DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NATION NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM PASSAGES. THIS SCENARIO
SETS THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PATTERN WITH ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER
THREATS.


This post has been edited by bigmt: Jan 2 2017, 05:01 AM
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bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 04:34 AM
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00z CMC @ hour 120:

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png ( 174.32K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 132:

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png ( 173.77K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 144:

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png ( 174.75K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 156:

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png ( 176.91K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 168:

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_28.png ( 131.47K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by bigmt: Dec 29 2016, 04:35 AM
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bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 04:35 AM
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00z ECMWF @ hour 120:

Attached File  ecmwf_T850_us_6.png ( 262.36K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 144:

Attached File  ecmwf_T850_us_7.png ( 277.56K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 168:

Attached File  ecmwf_T850_us_8.png ( 272.62K ) Number of downloads: 1
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bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 04:37 AM
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00z GEFS @ hour 144:

Attached File  gefs_slp_lows_conus_25.png ( 192.8K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gefs_ptype_ens_east_25.png ( 419.4K ) Number of downloads: 4
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bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 05:26 AM
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06z GFS @ hour 108:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png ( 186.77K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 120:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png ( 189.23K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 132:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png ( 190.1K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 144:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png ( 193.53K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 156:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png ( 188.12K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_26.png ( 150.63K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 06:37 AM
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06z GEFS @ hour 132:

Attached File  gefs_slp_lows_conus_23.png ( 185.58K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  gefs_ptype_ens_east_23.png ( 416.08K ) Number of downloads: 6
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snowgeek93
post Dec 29 2016, 09:01 AM
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Deep breaths, deep breaths... biggrin.gif


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 11:18 AM
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12z GFS @ hour 96:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png ( 186.38K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 108:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png ( 184.25K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png ( 187.51K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 132:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png ( 192.96K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 144:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png ( 190.81K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_24.png ( 142.31K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by bigmt: Dec 29 2016, 11:21 AM
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travis3000
post Dec 29 2016, 11:20 AM
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Member No.: 12,822





GFS showing a real soaker in Southern Ontario sad.gif


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 11:49 AM
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12z CMC @ hour 108:

Attached File  cmc_ptype_east_19.png ( 191.61K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

Attached File  cmc_ptype_east_21.png ( 206.9K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 132:

Attached File  cmc_ptype_east_23.png ( 196.72K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 144:

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Attached File  cmc_ptype_labrador_25.png ( 156.76K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 156:

Attached File  cmc_ptype_east_27.png ( 188.79K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 01:35 PM
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12z Euro maintaining a mild, rainy look for S ON & S QC and a messier transition into the Maritimes with cold lurking again behind the system.
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willyswagon
post Dec 29 2016, 01:44 PM
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I sure hope there is some cold, cause all of this Wet is a downer.
Santa dropped off a couple of Snowmobile Trail Passes, but no real snow to go with them!
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JJ Snowlover
post Dec 29 2016, 02:17 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Dec 29 2016, 11:49 AM) *
12z CMC @ hour 108:

Attached File  cmc_ptype_east_19.png ( 191.61K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

Attached File  cmc_ptype_east_21.png ( 206.9K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 132:

Attached File  cmc_ptype_east_23.png ( 196.72K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 144:

Attached File  cmc_ptype_east_25.png ( 206.28K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  cmc_ptype_labrador_25.png ( 156.76K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 156:

Attached File  cmc_ptype_east_27.png ( 188.79K ) Number of downloads: 0
model shuffle.. this run of the CMC/GEM paints a much different picture for Ontario than the GFS.
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SNOWBOB11
post Dec 29 2016, 02:27 PM
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While this system whether it's wound up or not is going to be mild for ON it could have implications on the next storm threat. Models will have a hard time figuring everything out for the next while but the system after this is one I'm keep an eye on.

It has the potential to be too far south for ON but the 12z euro and gem both keep it within striking distance. It's obviously far away but watch for a possible apps runner if it can cut north.

This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Dec 29 2016, 02:30 PM
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bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 05:16 PM
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18z GFS @ hour 96:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png ( 183.39K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 108:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png ( 187.71K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png ( 192.19K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 132:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png ( 197.36K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_22.png ( 150.91K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 144:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_24.png ( 152.24K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by bigmt: Dec 29 2016, 05:28 PM
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bigmt
post Dec 30 2016, 04:14 AM
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00z CMC @ hour 96:

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png ( 179.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 108:

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png ( 180.01K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png ( 179.6K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 132:

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_22.png ( 144.63K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Dec 30 2016, 04:15 AM
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00z ECMWF @ hour 96:

Attached File  ecmwf_T850_us_5.png ( 253.32K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 120:

Attached File  ecmwf_T850_us_6.png ( 269.14K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 144:

Attached File  ecmwf_T850_namer_7.png ( 277.41K ) Number of downloads: 1
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bigmt
post Dec 30 2016, 05:51 AM
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06z GFS @ hour 96:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png ( 192.4K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 108:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png ( 195.17K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png ( 200.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 132:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_22.png ( 158.56K ) Number of downloads: 0
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Torontoweather
post Dec 30 2016, 10:21 AM
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This will very likely be rain for most on the forums. The period after this could be interesting as some of the individual ensemble members are showing.


--------------------
McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.

When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;)
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bigmt
post Dec 30 2016, 11:11 AM
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12z GFS @ hour 72:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.png ( 187.61K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 84:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png ( 191.49K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 96:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png ( 196.3K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 108:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png ( 199.53K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png ( 201.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_20.png ( 157.03K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by bigmt: Dec 30 2016, 11:14 AM
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