Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

146 Pages V  « < 144 145 146  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Bering Sea Rule and Typhoon Rule, Forecasting based on the BSR and TR
OSNW3
post May 13 2017, 12:27 PM
Post #2901




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,837
Joined: 29-June 11
From: Oshkosh, WI
Member No.: 25,792





QUOTE(grace @ May 12 2017, 06:21 PM) *
What happened the other page?


I transferred control of the domain to Joseph Renken. I moved my RRWT stuff to http://www.consonantchaos.com/


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post May 13 2017, 07:29 PM
Post #2902




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,890
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





I have a feeling we may hear the phrase "the pattern will reload"/"pattern has reloaded"... in other words, similar pattern twice in relatively rapid succession... toward the end of the month or into very early June. Look at the placement of the features... especially the surface low pressures/warm fronts/cold fronts.

Pattern valid on 11/00z



Pattern valid on 15/00z



I've posted about this before... but again... add 17 days to those days, you get May 27 and May 31... give or take 2 days.

The evolution of these systems in the Bering, via my eyeball interpretation, suggests to me that the Plains won't be the primary severe weather area. I think it'll favor severe weather in the regions immediately east of the Plains; Dixie Alley, Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley. I mentioned those areas as primary because of Climatology, but it might also include the Great Lakes, the northeast, and southeast.

Of course, just as Climatology favors severe weather in the OV/Mississippi Valley, it favors severe weather even more in the Plains. So I feel like I'm kinda going out on a limb with my interpretation by saying the Plains will not be the area of interest with these events. Pretty risky when it's dryline season out there.

Oklahoma hasn't had a high risk since 2012 or 2013, so after all I've said here, I wouldn't be surprised if they finally get one here. rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 13 2017, 07:41 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 9 (Last: 5/24/17)
Slight risks: 7 (Last: 5/27/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post May 13 2017, 09:49 PM
Post #2903




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,959
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(OSNW3 @ May 13 2017, 12:27 PM) *
I transferred control of the domain to Joseph Renken. I moved my RRWT stuff to http://www.consonantchaos.com/



I loved that page! "If it ain't broke don't fix it."

This post has been edited by grace: May 14 2017, 02:45 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post May 14 2017, 06:31 AM
Post #2904




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 26,926
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Geez - I hope not

Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 264.89K ) Number of downloads: 1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OSNW3
post May 15 2017, 08:05 AM
Post #2905




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,837
Joined: 29-June 11
From: Oshkosh, WI
Member No.: 25,792





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 13 2017, 07:29 PM) *
I have a feeling we may hear the phrase "the pattern will reload"/"pattern has reloaded"... in other words, similar pattern twice in relatively rapid succession... toward the end of the month or into very early June. Look at the placement of the features... especially the surface low pressures/warm fronts/cold fronts.

Pattern valid on 11/00z



Pattern valid on 15/00z



I've posted about this before... but again... add 17 days to those days, you get May 27 and May 31... give or take 2 days.

The evolution of these systems in the Bering, via my eyeball interpretation, suggests to me that the Plains won't be the primary severe weather area. I think it'll favor severe weather in the regions immediately east of the Plains; Dixie Alley, Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley. I mentioned those areas as primary because of Climatology, but it might also include the Great Lakes, the northeast, and southeast.

Of course, just as Climatology favors severe weather in the OV/Mississippi Valley, it favors severe weather even more in the Plains. So I feel like I'm kinda going out on a limb with my interpretation by saying the Plains will not be the area of interest with these events. Pretty risky when it's dryline season out there.

Oklahoma hasn't had a high risk since 2012 or 2013, so after all I've said here, I wouldn't be surprised if they finally get one here. rolleyes.gif


With regard to recurring atmospheric modes, the ~31st has more grit than the ~27th. Signals are out of phase for the ~27th and weaker than the ~31st which shows some deep purples and phasing among RRWT members. We shall see.

RRWT Lifted Index anomaly for 5/25-29 from 5/4
Attached File  170504150120.jpg ( 303.95K ) Number of downloads: 2


RRWT Lifted Index anomaly for 5/30-6/3 from 5/9
Attached File  170509150120__1_.jpg ( 298.01K ) Number of downloads: 4


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OSNW3
post May 19 2017, 09:47 AM
Post #2906




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,837
Joined: 29-June 11
From: Oshkosh, WI
Member No.: 25,792





In the Recurring Rossby Wave Train pattern correlation phase space, each point represents a possible instantaneous state of the system.



A solution of the governing equations is represented by a point traveling along a trajectory in the phase space. A single point in phase space determines the entire future trajectory, providing a composite of future weather and climate outcomes.



A quick blog entry: Strange Attractor

This post has been edited by OSNW3: May 19 2017, 09:47 AM


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post May 22 2017, 01:39 PM
Post #2907




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,890
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Broad ridge/ring of fire signal coming up on BSR? I've personally never seen this signal before. Then again, I'm often not looking at BSR this time of year because I'm occupied by severe weather.





This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 22 2017, 01:40 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 9 (Last: 5/24/17)
Slight risks: 7 (Last: 5/27/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post May 27 2017, 07:05 AM
Post #2908




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,890
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Now have much stronger agreement regarding the MJO. Expected to pass through phase 2 in 3-4 days.




Last time we passed through phase 2 was May 14. 1 day later began a 5-day severe weather and tornado outbreak, including a high risk in the Plains.

Per BSR, we called today's to-be outbreak in the Midwest. Per BSR, we should be expecting another one in 3-4 days (+/- 2 days). This aligns well with the phase 2 passage. Only thing is... we don't pass through the entire phase 2; we come out of the CoD into phase 2. So I'm uncertain if that matters.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 13 2017, 08:29 PM) *
I have a feeling we may hear the phrase "the pattern will reload"/"pattern has reloaded"... in other words, similar pattern twice in relatively rapid succession... toward the end of the month or into very early June. Look at the placement of the features... especially the surface low pressures/warm fronts/cold fronts.

Pattern valid on 11/00z

Pattern valid on 15/00z

I've posted about this before... but again... add 17 days to those days, you get May 27 and May 31... give or take 2 days.

The evolution of these systems in the Bering, via my eyeball interpretation, suggests to me that the Plains won't be the primary severe weather area. I think it'll favor severe weather in the regions immediately east of the Plains; Dixie Alley, Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley. I mentioned those areas as primary because of Climatology, but it might also include the Great Lakes, the northeast, and southeast.

Of course, just as Climatology favors severe weather in the OV/Mississippi Valley, it favors severe weather even more in the Plains. So I feel like I'm kinda going out on a limb with my interpretation by saying the Plains will not be the area of interest with these events. Pretty risky when it's dryline season out there.

Oklahoma hasn't had a high risk since 2012 or 2013, so after all I've said here, I wouldn't be surprised if they finally get one here. rolleyes.gif


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 27 2017, 07:06 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 9 (Last: 5/24/17)
Slight risks: 7 (Last: 5/27/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

146 Pages V  « < 144 145 146
Reply to this topicStart new topic
2 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 29th May 2017 - 04:39 AM