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AccuWeather.com Forums _ Current Weather - Canada _ Jan 13-14th Eastern Canada winter storm

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 7 2018, 06:25 PM

18Z GFS giving over 40cms for the GHTA, Ottawa and points East.








Posted by: plowguy Jan 7 2018, 06:27 PM

Yikes!

Posted by: travis3000 Jan 7 2018, 06:29 PM

Now that is a phenomenal run, not as plentiful for us up here but still 25cm. GTA gets smashed with 35-45cm.

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 7 2018, 06:33 PM

Ensembles in remarkable agreement. Somone somewhere is going to buried, but the fine tuning will be unknown till Thursday IMO:

Euro:



GEFS



Canadian:


Posted by: snowgeek93 Jan 7 2018, 07:01 PM

Well it would certainly make up for the snow we lose on Thursday! laugh.gif

Posted by: puttin Jan 7 2018, 07:18 PM

QUOTE(travis3000 @ Jan 7 2018, 06:29 PM) *
Now that is a phenomenal run, not as plentiful for us up here but still 25cm. GTA gets smashed with 35-45cm.


Lots of time for that to change, that amount of snow is unheard of, since the Colorado low when we bought our house, 45 cm, 19 years ago....that was an awesome storm.. On another note, We had a plow in the ditch on Friday at my work (yrp) that needed to be towed out, had 16,000 tons of sand to be shovelled first...16,000 unreal...on a relatively good day for the roads

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 7 2018, 07:37 PM

QUOTE(puttin @ Jan 7 2018, 07:18 PM) *
Lots of time for that to change, that amount of snow is unheard of, since the Colorado low when we bought our house, 45 cm, 19 years ago....that was an awesome storm.. On another note, We had a plow in the ditch on Friday at my work (yrp) that needed to be towed out, had 16,000 tons of sand to be shovelled first...16,000 unreal...on a relatively good day for the roads


Yep, if this storm comes to pass like this, Toronto will become completely dysfuntional next week...maybe see tbe military called in laugh.gif

TBH, if this happens, it will be the speed of accumulation that will really be the problem.

Anyway, as you say, 5 days away still.

Posted by: puttin Jan 7 2018, 07:47 PM

QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 7 2018, 07:37 PM) *
Yep, if this storm comes to pass like this, Toronto will become completely dysfuntional next week...maybe see tbe military called in laugh.gif

TBH, if this happens, it will be the speed of accumulation that will really be the problem.

Anyway, as you say, 5 days away still.

Nice To still have you here Lakie. My mom is sinking into your dads world. It is cruel for us and kind for them I guess. heck on earth for those of us with kids and are devastated...god bless us all....

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 7 2018, 07:48 PM

Wanna see this still modelled like this in a few days....would be a very rare event. One can watch and hope in the meantime!

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 7 2018, 07:53 PM

QUOTE(puttin @ Jan 7 2018, 07:47 PM) *
Nice To still have you here Lakie. My mom is sinking into your dads world. It is cruel for us and kind for them I guess. heck on earth for those of us with kids and are devastated...god bless us all....


Sorry to hear that Puttin. Yeah, my Dad is so far gone now. He actually prefers the company of other demented people.

This will almost certainly be my last winter here (I know, said that last year), but I can't leave my Mum on her own. Be nice to have one monster storm and one great LES outbreak before I go...this one has potential for sure.

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 7 2018, 08:15 PM

All about how fast the cold air comes in after the cutting system. If it can come in fast enough but not too fast then watch out. Those accumulation maps might not be that far off. Also need the cold air to come in to all layers. If you end up with a situation where the surface cold comes in but itís warm through H85 then could be looking at a fairly significant ZR event.

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 7 2018, 08:40 PM

QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 7 2018, 08:15 PM) *
All about how fast the cold air comes in after the cutting system. If it can come in fast enough but not too fast then watch out. Those accumulation maps might not be that far off. Also need the cold air to come in to all layers. If you end up with a situation where the surface cold comes in but itís warm through H85 then could be looking at a fairly significant ZR event.


ZR will definitely be a factor at some point. Lets hope it passes over fast.




Posted by: cards101 Jan 7 2018, 11:27 PM

Latest 00z runs of GFS and Canadian both come in with monsters of S.Ontario. Canadian a bit better for GTA, but both huge hits

Posted by: markj138 Jan 7 2018, 11:27 PM

i see you typing snowbob

CMC 0Z


Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 7 2018, 11:29 PM

GFS and GEM continue to show massive totals for S ON. Hereís a couple images from the 00z runs.

GFS



GEM


Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 7 2018, 11:32 PM

QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 7 2018, 11:27 PM) *
i see you typing snowbob


ROFL. I canít help it Iím getting way too into this storm. Iím fully invested that this is going to be the big one. I think you might be too. Lol

Posted by: markj138 Jan 7 2018, 11:37 PM

QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 7 2018, 11:32 PM) *
ROFL. I canít help it Iím getting way too into this storm. Iím fully invested that this is going to be the big one. I think you might be too. Lol


laugh.gif i hope this one dosen`t break my heart,there is no way this look is going to stick on every run between now & the storm so there will be ups & downs but yeah all the ingredients are there & if we can get back to these solutions the end of next week then BOOM!

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 7 2018, 11:41 PM

QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 7 2018, 11:37 PM) *
laugh.gif i hope this one dosen`t break my heart,there is no way this look is going to stick on every run between now & the storm so there will be ups & downs but yeah all the ingredients are there & if we can get back to these solutions the end of next week then BOOM!


Boom indeed. Despite it being several days out Iím debating staying up to check the euro. Who needs sleep when the storm of the century is on its way. tongue.gif

Posted by: cards101 Jan 7 2018, 11:47 PM

The new euro should come in more east then 12z run...all of the 12z ensembles where east of the euro

Posted by: markj138 Jan 7 2018, 11:48 PM

QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 7 2018, 11:41 PM) *
Boom indeed. Despite it being several days out Iím debating staying up to check the euro. Who needs sleep when the storm of the century is on its way. tongue.gif


Haha i don`t think i can make the euro,anyway we will need our sleep for the night of the storm of the century!!

Posted by: markj138 Jan 7 2018, 11:53 PM

QUOTE(cards101 @ Jan 7 2018, 11:47 PM) *
The new euro should come in more east then 12z run...all of the 12z ensembles where east of the euro



I didnt even see the 12z euro,was the op west?

Posted by: cards101 Jan 8 2018, 12:19 AM

Op went into NW Ohio

Posted by: markj138 Jan 8 2018, 12:24 AM

QUOTE(cards101 @ Jan 8 2018, 12:19 AM) *
Op went into NW Ohio


Thanks cards,i will catch the 0z tomorrow!

Posted by: knorthern_knight Jan 8 2018, 01:20 AM

When the GFS snow amounts exceed myforecast.com, one tends to get somewhat skeptical. laugh.gif Even if the forecast does pan out, a lot of the snow will fall into salty puddles. It'll be one sloppy mess on the weekend. Here's Ontario...

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z  8JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   66 01/10 18Z   33     33    0.11 -RA     33     26    0.0  0.11
   69 01/10 21Z   35     35    0.03 -RA     35     33    0.0  0.14
   72 01/11 00Z   36     35    0.01 -RA     36     33    0.0  0.15
   75 01/11 03Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.17
   78 01/11 06Z   37     37    0.03 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.20
   81 01/11 09Z   38     38    0.03 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.23
   84 01/11 12Z   38     38    0.06 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.29
   87 01/11 15Z   38     38    0.07 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.36
   90 01/11 18Z   38     38    0.01 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.37
   93 01/11 21Z   39     39    0.01 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.38
   96 01/12 00Z   40     40    0.01 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.39
   99 01/12 03Z   39     39    0.06 -TSRA   41     39    0.0  0.45
  102 01/12 06Z   35     35    0.15 -RA     41     35    0.0  0.60
  105 01/12 09Z   26     25    0.04 -FZRN   35     26    0.0  0.64
  108 01/12 12Z   22     20    0.07 -PL     35     22    0.2  0.71    0.2
  111 01/12 15Z   21     18    0.06 -SN     22     21    0.9  0.77    1.1
  114 01/12 18Z   22     17    0.01 -SN     22     21    0.2  0.78    1.3
  117 01/12 21Z   20     16    0.04 -SN     22     20    0.4  0.82    1.7
  120 01/13 00Z   18     16    0.10 -SN     22     18    1.3  0.92    3.0
  123 01/13 03Z   15     14    0.24 SN      18     15    3.1  1.16    6.1
  126 01/13 06Z   13     12    0.41 SN      18     13    6.1  1.57   12.2
  129 01/13 09Z   12     10    0.29 SN      13     12    5.8  1.86   18.0
  132 01/13 12Z   10      7    0.05 SN      13     10    0.8  1.91   18.8
  135 01/13 15Z    8      6    0.08 -SN     11      8    1.9  1.99   20.7
  138 01/13 18Z    9      6    0.01 -SN     11      7    0.3  2.00   21.0
  141 01/13 21Z    8      4    0.01 -SN      9      8    0.3  2.01   21.3
  144 01/14 00Z    2      0    0.00 -SN      9      2    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  8JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   66 01/10 18Z   31     30    0.06 -FZRN   31     21    0.0  0.06
   69 01/10 21Z   34     34    0.06 -RA     34     31    0.0  0.12
   72 01/11 00Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     31    0.0  0.13
   75 01/11 03Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.14
   78 01/11 06Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.16
   81 01/11 09Z   37     37    0.03 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.19
   84 01/11 12Z   39     39    0.03 -RA     39     36    0.0  0.22
   87 01/11 15Z   39     38    0.05 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.27
   90 01/11 18Z   41     40    0.01 -RA     41     37    0.0  0.28
   93 01/11 21Z   42     42    0.01 -RA     42     41    0.0  0.29
   96 01/12 00Z   45     44    0.01 -RA     45     41    0.0  0.30
   99 01/12 03Z   44     43    0.04 -TSRA   46     44    0.0  0.34
  102 01/12 06Z   40     39    0.14 -RA     46     40    0.0  0.48
  105 01/12 09Z   30     26    0.07 -FZRN   39     30    0.0  0.55
  108 01/12 12Z   23     20    0.08 -PL     39     23    0.0  0.63
  111 01/12 15Z   22     17    0.04 -SN     23     22    0.4  0.67    0.4
  114 01/12 18Z   21     13    0.01 -SN     23     21    0.1  0.68    0.5
  117 01/12 21Z   18     11    0.01 -SN     21     18    0.1  0.69    0.6
  120 01/13 00Z   16     13    0.06 -SN     21     16    0.7  0.75    1.3
  123 01/13 03Z   12     11    0.16 SN      16     12    1.9  0.91    3.2
  126 01/13 06Z   10      9    0.42 SN      16     10    5.2  1.33    8.4
  129 01/13 09Z   11      8    0.34 SN      11      9    5.0  1.67   13.4
  132 01/13 12Z   10      7    0.11 SN      11      9    2.2  1.78   15.6
  135 01/13 15Z    7      5    0.07 -SN     10      7    1.8  1.85   17.4
  138 01/13 18Z    8      5    0.03 -SN     10      7    0.6  1.88   18.0
  141 01/13 21Z    7      3    0.00 -SN      8      7    0.1         18.1
  144 01/14 00Z    2      0    0.00          8      2    0.1         18.2

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  8JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   66 01/10 18Z   32     30    0.05 -RA     32     24    0.0  0.05
   69 01/10 21Z   34     34    0.13 -RA     34     32    0.0  0.18
   72 01/11 00Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     32    0.0  0.20
   75 01/11 03Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.21
   78 01/11 06Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.23
   81 01/11 09Z   38     38    0.03 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.26
   84 01/11 12Z   39     39    0.01 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.27
   87 01/11 15Z   41     40    0.07 -RA     41     39    0.0  0.34
   90 01/11 18Z   43     42    0.01 -RA     43     39    0.0  0.35
   93 01/11 21Z   45     43    0.00         45     43    0.0
   96 01/12 00Z   47     45    0.01 -RA     47     43    0.0  0.01
   99 01/12 03Z   46     45    0.01 -RA     47     46    0.0  0.02
  102 01/12 06Z   43     42    0.05 -RA     47     43    0.0  0.07
  105 01/12 09Z   36     33    0.08 -RA     43     36    0.0  0.15
  108 01/12 12Z   28     26    0.27 FZRN    43     28    0.0  0.42
  111 01/12 15Z   23     21    0.11 -SN     28     23    1.1  0.53    1.1
  114 01/12 18Z   20     16    0.08 -SN     28     20    1.1  0.61    2.2
  117 01/12 21Z   18     14    0.04 -SN     20     18    0.6  0.65    2.8
  120 01/13 00Z   19     16    0.05 -PL     20     18    0.3  0.70    3.1
  123 01/13 03Z   16     14    0.10 -PL     19     16    0.1  0.80    3.2
  126 01/13 06Z   13     12    0.38 SN      19     13    3.4  1.18    6.6
  129 01/13 09Z   13     11    0.30 SN      13     12    3.7  1.48   10.3
  132 01/13 12Z   12      9    0.09 SN      13     12    1.5  1.57   11.8
  135 01/13 15Z    8      6    0.04 -SN     12      8    0.9  1.61   12.7
  138 01/13 18Z   10      7    0.02 -SN     12      7    0.6  1.63   13.3
  141 01/13 21Z    9      6    0.02 -SN     10      9    0.3  1.65   13.6
  144 01/14 00Z    3      0    0.01 -SN     10      3    0.1  1.66   13.7

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z  8JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   66 01/10 18Z   30     27    0.02 -FZRN   30     24    0.0  0.02
   69 01/10 21Z   33     32    0.09 -RA     34     30    0.0  0.11
   72 01/11 00Z   36     35    0.01 -RA     36     30    0.0  0.12
   75 01/11 03Z   36     36    0.00         36     36    0.0
   78 01/11 06Z   37     36    0.01 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.01
   81 01/11 09Z   37     37    0.01 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.02
   84 01/11 12Z   39     39    0.02 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.04
   87 01/11 15Z   39     39    0.06 -RA     39     39    0.0  0.10
   90 01/11 18Z   41     40    0.01 -RA     41     39    0.0  0.11
   93 01/11 21Z   43     41    0.01         43     41    0.0  0.12
   96 01/12 00Z   45     43    0.01 -RA     45     41    0.0  0.13
   99 01/12 03Z   45     43    0.01         45     45    0.0  0.14
  102 01/12 06Z   42     41    0.03 -RA     45     42    0.0  0.17
  105 01/12 09Z   34     30    0.10 -RA     42     34    0.0  0.27
  108 01/12 12Z   23     19    0.13 -PL     42     23    0.0  0.40
  111 01/12 15Z   19     15    0.04 -SN     23     19    0.5  0.44    0.5
  114 01/12 18Z   18     12    0.02 -SN     23     18    0.3  0.46    0.8
  117 01/12 21Z   19     13    0.01 -SN     19     18    0.2  0.47    1.0
  120 01/13 00Z   19     15    0.05 -SN     20     18    0.7  0.52    1.7
  123 01/13 03Z   17     12    0.04 -PL     19     17    0.3  0.56    2.0
  126 01/13 06Z   13     13    0.35 SN      19     13    5.3  0.91    7.3
  129 01/13 09Z   13     12    0.42 SN      13     12    5.2  1.33   12.5
  132 01/13 12Z   13     10    0.12 SN      14     12    2.2  1.45   14.7
  135 01/13 15Z   10      8    0.04 -SN     13      9    0.8  1.49   15.5
  138 01/13 18Z    9      6    0.03 -SN     13      8    0.7  1.52   16.2
  141 01/13 21Z    6      4    0.01 -SN      9      6    0.3  1.53   16.5
  144 01/14 00Z    5      1    0.01 -SN      9      4    0.3  1.54   16.8

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  8JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   72 01/11 00Z   27     27    0.06 -SN     27     23    0.2  0.06    0.2
   75 01/11 03Z   34     34    0.05 -RA     34     28    0.0  0.11
   78 01/11 06Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     28    0.0  0.12
   81 01/11 09Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     35    0.0  0.13
   84 01/11 12Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     35    0.0  0.14
   87 01/11 15Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.16
   90 01/11 18Z   37     37    0.13 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.29
   93 01/11 21Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.31
   96 01/12 00Z   38     38    0.01 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.32
   99 01/12 03Z   40     40    0.01 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.33
  102 01/12 06Z   40     40    0.04 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.37
  105 01/12 09Z   39     39    0.06 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.43
  108 01/12 12Z   25     23    0.23 -FZRN   40     25    0.0  0.66
  111 01/12 15Z   15     12    0.13 -SN     24     15    1.2  0.79    1.2
  114 01/12 18Z   13      9    0.03 -SN     24     13    0.4  0.82    1.6
  117 01/12 21Z   12      7    0.01         13     12    0.2  0.83    1.8
  120 01/13 00Z   12      7    0.00         13     12    0.0
  123 01/13 03Z   12      6    0.00         12     11    0.0
  126 01/13 06Z   11      7    0.03 -SN     12     11    0.4  0.03    0.4
  129 01/13 09Z   10      7    0.08 -SN     11     10    1.0  0.11    1.4
  132 01/13 12Z   11     10    0.28 SN      12     10    3.4  0.39    4.8
  135 01/13 15Z   11      9    0.20 SN      11     10    3.0  0.59    7.8
  138 01/13 18Z   12     10    0.11 SN      12     10    1.6  0.70    9.4
  141 01/13 21Z    9      7    0.09 -SN     12     10    1.8  0.79   11.2
  144 01/14 00Z    7      4    0.04 -SN     12      7    0.9  0.83   12.1

Posted by: cards101 Jan 8 2018, 01:55 AM

Latest euro did track further east

Posted by: robv1989 Jan 8 2018, 02:25 AM

This seems like a potentially epic snow storm...could anyone say (roughly) when this storm would be starting and when it would be finishing (especially starting.) My weekend for the work week would begin 7 am on Friday, would I be spared from a bad drive home? Big storms are the best when you can enjoy them at home with out driving smile.gif

Thank you in advance as I appreciate everyone on this forum for keeping us posted.

Edit:

I noticed on the American forum today's 06 Z GEFS run has 30-33 inches of snow for parts of the golden horse shoe O_O I realize we are far out still but that is 76-84 cm...the most snow I've ever personally seen is 73 cm when stoney creek had that valentines storm combined with lake effect many years ago.

Posted by: snowball Jan 8 2018, 07:18 AM

NAM is way off into oblivion

GFS holds

Will be fun to watch at least smile.gif

Posted by: players1 Jan 8 2018, 07:23 AM

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=341934

6z GFS.....

off of the american forum. id like that down this way...

Posted by: GreatWhiteTornado Jan 8 2018, 07:59 AM



GFS Whoa, LOL ok

Posted by: snowgeek93 Jan 8 2018, 08:21 AM

Ugh, I'd just ignore these models until Friday at least because their pumping out some ridiculous solutions.

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 8 2018, 08:30 AM

These totals are just insane and theyíve been shown for several runs in a row now so itís not fantasy that someone could well be getting amounts like what the GFS shows. Itís just the track is still to be determined for exactly who that is. Itís not often you see such high snow totals on the GFS, CMC and euro for a storm several days out. It just illustrates the potential for this storm.

The sharp cold front that moves in after the initial wave of moisture from the system bringing in warmer temps moves in fast enough to let the system track along the baroclinic zone and keep us in the cold sector. Looks like models are picking up on some defo bands in the main batch of precip as well. Very interesting storm to track if it actually materializes.

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 8 2018, 08:34 AM

Slipped a bit further East this morning. I suspect this may end up dumping on upstate NY throigh vermont. Atlantic Canada may well be the beneficiaries if that's the case.

Posted by: PGM Jan 8 2018, 10:34 AM

QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 8 2018, 08:34 AM) *
Slipped a bit further East this morning. I suspect this may end up dumping on upstate NY throigh vermont. Atlantic Canada may well be the beneficiaries if that's the case.


Probably a good thing. A snow fall of this caliber would cause a lot of issues, and some parts of Ontario don't need any more!

Posted by: trancen Jan 8 2018, 10:34 AM

A once in 20 yr storm wouldn't be a bad thing smile.gif

QUOTE(PGM @ Jan 8 2018, 10:34 AM) *
Probably a good thing. A snow fall of this caliber would cause a lot of issues, and some parts of Ontario don't need any more!


Posted by: PGM Jan 8 2018, 10:38 AM

QUOTE(trancen @ Jan 8 2018, 10:34 AM) *
A once in 20 yr storm wouldn't be a bad thing smile.gif


I've already enjoyed a crazy lake effect season lol. You guys can have it

Posted by: GreatWhiteTornado Jan 8 2018, 11:23 AM

''

Appears a little west.

Lets see this maintain.

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 8 2018, 11:29 AM

Models not backing down.

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 8 2018, 12:48 PM

Posting this just for eye-candy. Lol

Hamilton-Niagara in the 24+ inch zone.... we get this kind of eye candy on models every once in a while. Never materializes of course, but it's still fun to look at and dream a little!




Posted by: Lake effect Jan 8 2018, 01:10 PM

QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 8 2018, 12:48 PM) *
Posting this just for eye-candy. Lol

Hamilton-Niagara in the 24+ inch zone.... we get this kind of eye candy on models every once in a while. Never materializes of course, but it's still fun to look at and dream a little!



Mega lake enhancement. It's like getting storm snow and squalls at the same time. Hamilton gets six inches more than what Toronto gets. Still early days, but the CMC is on board. However, the ensembles have the low slightly further East.

Posted by: JFK Jan 8 2018, 01:40 PM

American:


Canadian:



Euro:



Posted by: markj138 Jan 8 2018, 01:42 PM

Just took a peak in the US thread,looks like the 12Z euro is more in line with the gfs & cmc rather than taking the low right over us as it was doing in yesterdays runs.

Posted by: players1 Jan 8 2018, 01:43 PM

Niagara region looking alright! no hopes up yet..... possibly Thursday excitement will set in.

Posted by: markj138 Jan 8 2018, 01:48 PM

12Z euro....not the big numbers like gfs/cmc but the main thing it is still there.



Posted by: akula Jan 8 2018, 01:51 PM

QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 8 2018, 01:48 PM) *
12Z euro....not the big numbers like gfs/cmc but the main thing it is still there.




hey I'd take 30CM!

Posted by: knorthern_knight Jan 8 2018, 01:53 PM

The poker game is going nuts laugh.gif


CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z  8JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   54 01/10 18Z   32     31    0.02 -RA     32     22    0.0  0.02
   57 01/10 21Z   35     35    0.02 -RA     35     32    0.0  0.04
   60 01/11 00Z   36     35    0.02 -RA     35     32    0.0  0.06
   63 01/11 03Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.08
   66 01/11 06Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.10
   69 01/11 09Z   38     38    0.04 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.14
   72 01/11 12Z   38     38    0.07 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.21
   75 01/11 15Z   38     38    0.01 -RA     38     38    0.0  0.22
   78 01/11 18Z   39     39    0.01 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.23
   81 01/11 21Z   39     39    0.01 -RA     39     39    0.0  0.24
   84 01/12 00Z   41     41    0.02 -RA     41     39    0.0  0.26
   87 01/12 03Z   41     41    0.06 -TSRA   42     41    0.0  0.32
   90 01/12 06Z   41     41    0.12 -TSRA   42     40    0.0  0.44
   93 01/12 09Z   32     30    0.13 -RA     41     32    0.0  0.57
   96 01/12 12Z   23     20    0.06 -PL     41     23    0.0  0.63
   99 01/12 15Z   21     17    0.04 -SN     23     21    0.3  0.67    0.3
  102 01/12 18Z   20     14    0.00 -SN     23     20    0.0
  105 01/12 21Z   20     11    0.00         20     19    0.0
  108 01/13 00Z   18      9    0.00         20     18    0.0
  111 01/13 03Z   15     13    0.13 -SN     18     15    2.1  0.13    2.1
  114 01/13 06Z   12     10    0.20 SN      18     12    3.5  0.33    5.6
  117 01/13 09Z    9      8    0.23 SN      12      9    4.9  0.56   10.5
  120 01/13 12Z    6      3    0.07 -SN     12      6    1.5  0.63   12.0
  123 01/13 15Z    6      4    0.07 -SN      6      5    1.7  0.70   13.7
  126 01/13 18Z    8      5    0.01 -SN      8      5    0.3  0.71   14.0
  129 01/13 21Z    8      4    0.01 -SN      8      7    0.3  0.72   14.3
  132 01/14 00Z    5      4    0.00 -SN      8      5    0.1         14.4
  135 01/14 03Z    4      3    0.00          5      4    0.1         14.5
  138 01/14 06Z    5      5    0.01 -SN      6      4    0.3  0.01   14.8
  141 01/14 09Z    7      5    0.01 -SN      7      5    0.3  0.02   15.1
  144 01/14 12Z    2      0    0.00 -SN      7      2    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z  8JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   57 01/10 21Z   33     33    0.02 -RA     33     30    0.0  0.02
   60 01/11 00Z   35     34    0.01 -RA     35     30    0.0  0.03
   63 01/11 03Z   36     35    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.04
   66 01/11 06Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.06
   69 01/11 09Z   37     36    0.03 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.09
   72 01/11 12Z   38     38    0.04 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.13
   75 01/11 15Z   38     38    0.02 -RA     38     38    0.0  0.15
   78 01/11 18Z   41     41    0.01 -RA     41     38    0.0  0.16
   81 01/11 21Z   42     42    0.01 -RA     42     41    0.0  0.17
   84 01/12 00Z   45     44    0.03 -RA     45     41    0.0  0.20
   87 01/12 03Z   46     45    0.05 -TSRA   46     45    0.0  0.25
   90 01/12 06Z   44     43    0.13 -RA     46     44    0.0  0.38
   93 01/12 09Z   38     37    0.15 -RA     44     38    0.0  0.53
   96 01/12 12Z   26     22    0.05 -PL     44     26    0.0  0.58
   99 01/12 15Z   23     17    0.03 -SN     26     23    0.4  0.61    0.4
  102 01/12 18Z   22     12    0.00 -SN     26     21    0.0
  105 01/12 21Z   19      8    0.00         21     19    0.0
  108 01/13 00Z   17      4    0.00         21     17    0.0
  111 01/13 03Z   13     11    0.10 -SN     17     13    1.5  0.10    1.5
  114 01/13 06Z    9      7    0.25 SN      17      9    4.1  0.35    5.6
  117 01/13 09Z    7      7    0.18 SN       9      7    3.5  0.53    9.1
  120 01/13 12Z    6      3    0.14 SN       9      6    2.9  0.67   12.0
  123 01/13 15Z    6      4    0.06 -SN      6      5    1.2  0.73   13.2
  126 01/13 18Z    8      5    0.02 -SN      8      5    0.3  0.75   13.5
  129 01/13 21Z    7      4    0.01 -SN      8      7    0.3  0.76   13.8
  132 01/14 00Z    3      0    0.01 -SN      8      3    0.1  0.77   13.9
  135 01/14 03Z    2      0    0.00          3      2    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z  8JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   54 01/10 18Z   31     28    0.00 -RA     32     20    0.0
   57 01/10 21Z   34     33    0.03 -RA     34     32    0.0  0.03
   60 01/11 00Z   35     35    0.02 -RA     35     32    0.0  0.05
   63 01/11 03Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.06
   66 01/11 06Z   37     36    0.02 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.08
   69 01/11 09Z   37     37    0.03 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.11
   72 01/11 12Z   38     38    0.05 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.16
   75 01/11 15Z   40     39    0.02 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.18
   78 01/11 18Z   43     42    0.01 -RA     43     38    0.0  0.19
   81 01/11 21Z   46     44    0.00         46     43    0.0
   84 01/12 00Z   45     44    0.05 -RA     47     43    0.0  0.05
   87 01/12 03Z   47     45    0.00         47     45    0.0
   90 01/12 06Z   47     45    0.02 -RA     47     45    0.0  0.02
   93 01/12 09Z   44     43    0.29 RA      47     44    0.0  0.31
   96 01/12 12Z   32     29    0.16 FZRN    47     32    0.0  0.47
   99 01/12 15Z   27     23    0.09 -PL     32     27    0.2  0.56    0.2
  102 01/12 18Z   25     17    0.01 -SN     32     25    0.0  0.57
  105 01/12 21Z   19     13    0.01 -SN     25     19    0.2  0.58    0.2
  108 01/13 00Z   17     13    0.13 -SN     25     16    1.7  0.71    1.9
  111 01/13 03Z   15     14    0.26 SN      16     15    4.1  0.97    6.0
  114 01/13 06Z   12     11    0.35 SN      16     12    5.5  1.32   11.5
  117 01/13 09Z    9      8    0.26 SN      12      9    4.8  1.58   16.3
  120 01/13 12Z    7      5    0.14 SN      12      7    3.0  1.72   19.3
  123 01/13 15Z    6      4    0.05 -SN      7      5    1.3  1.77   20.6
  126 01/13 18Z    9      6    0.02 -SN      9      5    0.4  1.79   21.0
  129 01/13 21Z    9      6    0.02 -SN     10      9    0.3  1.81   21.3
  132 01/14 00Z    4      2    0.00 -SN     10      4    0.1         21.4
  135 01/14 03Z    3      0    0.00          4      2    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z  8JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   57 01/10 21Z   32     30    0.03 -RA     32     29    0.0  0.03
   60 01/11 00Z   34     34    0.01 -RA     34     29    0.0  0.04
   63 01/11 03Z   35     35    0.00 -RA     35     34    0.0
   66 01/11 06Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     34    0.0  0.01
   69 01/11 09Z   37     36    0.01 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.02
   72 01/11 12Z   38     37    0.03 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.05
   75 01/11 15Z   38     38    0.02 -RA     38     38    0.0  0.07
   78 01/11 18Z   41     40    0.01 -RA     41     38    0.0  0.08
   81 01/11 21Z   43     41    0.01         43     41    0.0  0.09
   84 01/12 00Z   44     42    0.02 -RA     44     41    0.0  0.11
   87 01/12 03Z   45     43    0.00         45     44    0.0
   90 01/12 06Z   44     43    0.03 -RA     45     44    0.0  0.03
   93 01/12 09Z   42     41    0.16 RA      44     42    0.0  0.19
   96 01/12 12Z   32     28    0.12 -RA     44     32    0.0  0.31
   99 01/12 15Z   23     18    0.04 -PL     32     23    0.2  0.35    0.2
  102 01/12 18Z   20     11    0.00 -SN     32     20    0.0
  105 01/12 21Z   18      9    0.00         20     18    0.0
  108 01/13 00Z   18     10    0.00         20     18    0.0
  111 01/13 03Z   15     14    0.18 SN      18     15    3.0  0.18    3.0
  114 01/13 06Z   12     12    0.32 SN      18     12    5.6  0.50    8.6
  117 01/13 09Z   10     10    0.29 SN      12     10    5.7  0.79   14.3
  120 01/13 12Z    8      6    0.22 SN      12      8    4.6  1.01   18.9
  123 01/13 15Z    6      5    0.05 -SN      8      5    1.1  1.06   20.0
  126 01/13 18Z    7      5    0.04 -SN      8      5    0.8  1.10   20.8
  129 01/13 21Z    6      3    0.01 -SN      7      6    0.3  1.11   21.1
  132 01/14 00Z    5      2    0.01 -SN      7      4    0.0  1.12
  135 01/14 03Z    5      2    0.00          5      4    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z  8JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   60 01/11 00Z   28     28    0.04 -SN     28     24    0.0  0.04
   63 01/11 03Z   34     34    0.03 -RA     34     28    0.0  0.07
   66 01/11 06Z   34     34    0.01 -RA     34     28    0.0  0.08
   69 01/11 09Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.09
   72 01/11 12Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.10
   75 01/11 15Z   36     36    0.08 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.18
   78 01/11 18Z   37     37    0.03 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.21
   81 01/11 21Z   37     37    0.03 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.24
   84 01/12 00Z   38     38    0.01 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.25
   87 01/12 03Z   39     39    0.02 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.27
   90 01/12 06Z   39     39    0.00 -RA     39     38    0.0
   93 01/12 09Z   39     39    0.00 -RA     40     39    0.0
   96 01/12 12Z   40     40    0.08 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.08
   99 01/12 15Z   28     25    0.18 FZRN    40     28    0.2  0.26    0.2
  102 01/12 18Z   16     12    0.05 -SN     40     16    0.5  0.31    0.7
  105 01/12 21Z   15      8    0.00         16     15    0.0
  108 01/13 00Z   13      6    0.00         16     13    0.0
  111 01/13 03Z   12      5    0.00         13     12    0.0
  114 01/13 06Z    9      8    0.07 -SN     13      9    1.0  0.07    1.0
  117 01/13 09Z    9      7    0.25 SN       9      8    3.8  0.32    4.8
  120 01/13 12Z    8      7    0.37 SN       9      8    5.9  0.69   10.7
  123 01/13 15Z    8      7    0.32 SN       9      8    5.5  1.01   16.2
  126 01/13 18Z    9      7    0.07 SN      10      8    1.3  1.08   17.5
  129 01/13 21Z    7      5    0.05 -SN      9      7    1.2  1.13   18.7
  132 01/14 00Z    2      0    0.01 -SN      9      2    0.3  1.14   19.0
  135 01/14 03Z   -1     -4    0.00 -SN      2     -1    0.0
  138 01/14 06Z   -7    -10    0.00          2     -7    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
CYUL Montréal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z  8JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   63 01/11 03Z   32     30    0.03 -RA     32     27    0.0  0.03
   66 01/11 06Z   33     33    0.02 -RA     33     27    0.0  0.05
   69 01/11 09Z   34     34    0.03 -RA     34     33    0.0  0.08
   72 01/11 12Z   35     35    0.02 -RA     35     33    0.0  0.10
   75 01/11 15Z   36     36    0.03 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.13
   78 01/11 18Z   37     37    0.05 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.18
   81 01/11 21Z   38     38    0.06 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.24
   84 01/12 00Z   38     38    0.09 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.33
   87 01/12 03Z   38     38    0.01 -RA     38     38    0.0  0.34
   90 01/12 06Z   38     38    0.02 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.36
   93 01/12 09Z   38     38    0.00 -RA     38     38    0.0
   96 01/12 12Z   39     39    0.02 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.02
   99 01/12 15Z   38     38    0.05 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.07
  102 01/12 18Z   30     27    0.02 -RA     39     30    0.0  0.09
  105 01/12 21Z   25     21    0.01 -SN     30     25    0.2  0.10    0.2
  108 01/13 00Z   21     15    0.02 -SN     30     21    0.2  0.12    0.4
  111 01/13 03Z   17     10    0.00         21     17    0.0
  114 01/13 06Z   12      8    0.02 -SN     21     12    0.3  0.02    0.3
  117 01/13 09Z   10      8    0.06 -SN     12     10    0.5  0.08    0.8
  120 01/13 12Z    9      7    0.13 -SN     12      9    1.5  0.21    2.3
  123 01/13 15Z   10      8    0.14 -SN     11      9    1.5  0.35    3.8
  126 01/13 18Z   10      8    0.06 -SN     11      9    0.6  0.41    4.4
  129 01/13 21Z   12     10    0.06 -SN     12     10    0.9  0.47    5.3
  132 01/14 00Z    9      7    0.04 -SN     12      9    1.0  0.51    6.3
  135 01/14 03Z    7      5    0.01 -SN      9      7    0.1  0.52    6.4
  138 01/14 06Z    0     -2    0.00 -SN      9      0    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
CYQB Québec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z  8JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   66 01/11 06Z   24     22    0.01 -SN     24     16    0.2  0.01    0.2
   69 01/11 09Z   27     26    0.02 -SN     27     24    0.1  0.03    0.3
   72 01/11 12Z   32     31    0.01 -FZRN   32     24    0.0  0.04
   75 01/11 15Z   34     34    0.01 -RA     34     32    0.0  0.05
   78 01/11 18Z   35     35    0.02 -RA     35     32    0.0  0.07
   81 01/11 21Z   36     36    0.05 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.12
   84 01/12 00Z   37     37    0.06 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.18
   87 01/12 03Z   38     38    0.07 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.25
   90 01/12 06Z   39     38    0.04 -RA     40     37    0.0  0.29
   93 01/12 09Z   40     39    0.07 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.36
   96 01/12 12Z   40     40    0.05 -RA     41     38    0.0  0.41
   99 01/12 15Z   41     40    0.14 -RA     42     40    0.0  0.55
  102 01/12 18Z   35     32    0.06 -FZRN   42     35    0.0  0.61
  105 01/12 21Z   23     18    0.01 -SN     34     23    0.1  0.62    0.1
  108 01/13 00Z   16      9    0.00 -SN     34     16    0.0
  111 01/13 03Z   15      7    0.00         16     15    0.0
  114 01/13 06Z   16     10    0.01         16     14    0.1  0.01    0.1
  117 01/13 09Z   14      9    0.03 -SN     16     14    0.3  0.04    0.4
  120 01/13 12Z   10      8    0.17 -SN     16     10    2.4  0.21    2.8
  123 01/13 15Z    9      7    0.12 -SN     10      9    1.5  0.33    4.3
  126 01/13 18Z    9      6    0.12 -SN     10      8    0.9  0.45    5.2
  129 01/13 21Z   13     10    0.06 -SN     13      9    0.8  0.51    6.0
  132 01/14 00Z   14     13    0.14 -SN     15      9    2.0  0.65    8.0
  135 01/14 03Z   15     15    0.08 -SN     16     14    1.6  0.73    9.6
  138 01/14 06Z   10      9    0.04 -SN     16     10    0.9  0.77   10.5
  141 01/14 09Z    5      3    0.01 -SN     10      5    0.1  0.78   10.6
  144 01/14 12Z   -1     -2    0.00 -SN     10      0    0.1         10.7

Posted by: weatherman 23 Jan 8 2018, 01:57 PM

Don't forget ratios...euros temps are around -12C, so likely around 20:1

Posted by: ottawasnowstorm Jan 8 2018, 02:23 PM

Long time since I posted but this potential snowstorm has me more than intrigued. Myforecast in it's latest run just gave me in Ottawa over 66 cm. Big totals from some others as well.

Problem is, is that I am scheduled to work an overtime shift this Saturday, from 7:30 am until 6:00 pm. Now, I can probably get out of it if this snowstorm were to hit but I don't want to book it off either if we're not going to get it. And the longer I wait to book it off, the harder it might be to take it off. Oh, the stressssss!!!!!! lol

What time would you guys be looking for it to start in Ottawa?


Posted by: Apocalypse Jan 8 2018, 02:25 PM

How often does Toronto get hit with a 30cm+ storm?

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 8 2018, 02:40 PM

QUOTE(Apocalypse @ Jan 8 2018, 02:25 PM) *
How often does Toronto get hit with a 30cm+ storm?

Doesnít happen every year but itís not unheard of.

Posted by: Stl Jan 8 2018, 02:50 PM

Guys slow down with the Kuchera , if there is no wind i would say ok but otherwise keep the 1:10 and calculate it accordingly. I would love to have the kuchera totals but it's always fantasy.


Posted by: GreatWhiteTornado Jan 8 2018, 03:03 PM

It does seem temps may be favourable for higher ratio, BUT I couldn't imagine us getting the actual precipitation predicted.

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 8 2018, 03:26 PM

QUOTE(ottawasnowstorm @ Jan 8 2018, 02:23 PM) *
Long time since I posted but this potential snowstorm has me more than intrigued. Myforecast in it's latest run just gave me in Ottawa over 66 cm. Big totals from some others as well.

Problem is, is that I am scheduled to work an overtime shift this Saturday, from 7:30 am until 6:00 pm. Now, I can probably get out of it if this snowstorm were to hit but I don't want to book it off either if we're not going to get it. And the longer I wait to book it off, the harder it might be to take it off. Oh, the stressssss!!!!!! lol

What time would you guys be looking for it to start in Ottawa?


Current GFS has it starting just before dawn and heavy snow all day.

Early days though. As I've said in a previous post, all the ensembles have the center of the low about 100miles East of the OP runs, which for our region might be a bust. I would not start making plans around this until we've seen the Thursday 12Z run. Clearly there will be something, but exact track and timing is still up for grabs.

Posted by: snowgeek93 Jan 8 2018, 03:55 PM

I'd be happy with just 5cm to cover up the ground after the meltdown on Thursday lol

Posted by: markj138 Jan 8 2018, 05:19 PM

18z gfs is further east but this is early days,i would rather see an east trend happen now than on Thursday


Posted by: plowguy Jan 8 2018, 05:19 PM

I vote for a miss...just for Brantford! We just got pasted with 15+ cms last night and this morning.

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 8 2018, 05:43 PM

QUOTE(plowguy @ Jan 8 2018, 05:19 PM) *
I vote for a miss...just for Brantford! We just got pasted with 15+ cms last night and this morning.


Wow you got that much? Didnít think you would end up with such high totals. That system seemed to do quite good in several areas.

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 8 2018, 05:46 PM

QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 8 2018, 05:19 PM) *
18z gfs is further east but this is early days,i would rather see an east trend happen now than on Thursday

Agreed. Not a bad area to be in atm. The 12z EPS looked good fwiw.

Posted by: akula Jan 8 2018, 05:52 PM

We dont want to be in the bullseye at this early stage as long as this east trend isnt a constant trend we are still looking good! esp. Niagara

Posted by: Stl Jan 8 2018, 06:11 PM

QUOTE(akula @ Jan 8 2018, 05:52 PM) *
We dont want to be in the bullseye at this early stage as long as this east trend isnt a constant trend we are still looking good! esp. Niagara


We were in the Bullseye in the first runs but atleast the Euro didn't show that many so it was less painfull to see those big amount vanish. laugh.gif

Posted by: markj138 Jan 8 2018, 06:22 PM

QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 8 2018, 05:46 PM) *
Agreed. Not a bad area to be in atm. The 12z EPS looked good fwiw.


I would not be surprised the see the 0Z CMC & Euro to go east tonight,we shall see.

Posted by: BIG Snowstorms Jan 8 2018, 06:31 PM

Anything from Brett on this?

Posted by: travis3000 Jan 8 2018, 06:55 PM

Considering Barrie already has 45-50cm of snow compacted as a base I really don't care if we miss this one. Im sure we will get some LES on the backside anyway. I doubt the brief 24 hour warmup this week will take all our snow, maybe just half of it. Still leaves us with 20-25cm. The snowbanks are getting pretty big now. Don't get me wrong, I would love a nice epic blizzard with 30cm for everyone, but my heart won't be shattered if we miss it.

Posted by: markj138 Jan 8 2018, 07:09 PM

18 Z GEFS


Posted by: Lake effect Jan 8 2018, 07:17 PM

QUOTE(travis3000 @ Jan 8 2018, 06:55 PM) *
Considering Barrie already has 45-50cm of snow compacted as a base I really don't care if we miss this one. Im sure we will get some LES on the backside anyway. I doubt the brief 24 hour warmup this week will take all our snow, maybe just half of it. Still leaves us with 20-25cm. The snowbanks are getting pretty big now. Don't get me wrong, I would love a nice epic blizzard with 30cm for everyone, but my heart won't be shattered if we miss it.


There have been a couple of years here where my snowblower struggles to clear the snowbank. I think it was in 2014 that we had a consistant base of between 60-70cm for weeks on end. Don't think we saw grass till the second week of April. So yeah, as the season wears on and clearing the drive gets harder, the thought of another dump has less appeal. However, still love seeing it.

Posted by: Ottawa blizzard Jan 8 2018, 07:33 PM

I would love to see a 25-30 cm event in the GTA, but just don't see it happening. We are in the bullseye too early. My guess would be that we'll see 5-10 cm on the northwest fringes of the storm, with Niagara maybe getting 10-15 cm.

Posted by: Ottawa blizzard Jan 8 2018, 07:33 PM

I would love to see a 25-30 cm event in the GTA, but just don't see it happening. We are in the bullseye too early. My guess would be that we'll see 5-10 cm on the northwest fringes of the storm, with Niagara maybe getting 10-15 cm.

Posted by: snowgeek93 Jan 8 2018, 07:41 PM

Just enough snow to build up another snowbase after we lose it on Thursday please... rolleyes.gif

Posted by: akula Jan 8 2018, 07:57 PM

12Z CMC looks good

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 8 2018, 09:17 PM

Lots of melting here today. Noticeable drop in snow depth in my backyard from 35cm after the morning snow down to about 25cm by evening.
Driveway and sidewalk are back to bare pavement for first time in a couple weeks. We've lost our 'snow globe'/ northern winter city look and are back to city winter. Lol


Posted by: akula Jan 8 2018, 09:40 PM

00z NAM is rolling?

Posted by: plowguy Jan 8 2018, 10:05 PM

QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 8 2018, 05:43 PM) *
Wow you got that much? Didnít think you would end up with such high totals. That system seemed to do quite good in several areas.

We did! All in all not a bad storm. Heading in now for lot clean up all were plowed twice yesterday and salted once. i do look forward to the warmth an a few days off...I hope

Posted by: ottawasnowstorm Jan 8 2018, 10:53 PM

QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 8 2018, 03:26 PM) *
Current GFS has it starting just before dawn and heavy snow all day.

Early days though. As I've said in a previous post, all the ensembles have the center of the low about 100miles East of the OP runs, which for our region might be a bust. I would not start making plans around this until we've seen the Thursday 12Z run. Clearly there will be something, but exact track and timing is still up for grabs.

Thanks for the reply. Yeah, I'll definitely wait to make any plans. I'll make sure to keep checking here and some weather agencies.

Posted by: akula Jan 8 2018, 11:06 PM

NAM is west, GFS is east... meet in the middle and clobber Ontario?

Posted by: Apocalypse Jan 8 2018, 11:06 PM

00z GFS looks like a complete miss for the GTA. Let's hope it trends back west.



Posted by: cards101 Jan 8 2018, 11:07 PM

New Canadian model still really really good for all of s. Ontario

00z gfs more to the east, so hit for niagara

Posted by: markj138 Jan 8 2018, 11:08 PM

QUOTE(Apocalypse @ Jan 8 2018, 11:06 PM) *
00z GFS looks like a complete miss.




Its fine,still a long ways to go yet,its better this goes east now than in a few days.

Posted by: Apocalypse Jan 8 2018, 11:11 PM

QUOTE(cards101 @ Jan 8 2018, 11:07 PM) *
New Canadian model still really really good for all of s. Ontario

00z gfs more to the east, so hit for niagara


Yeah CMC looks not bad.

Posted by: markj138 Jan 8 2018, 11:13 PM

0Z CMC


Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 8 2018, 11:24 PM

I like where weíre at right now. GFS only shifted a bit SE, nothing crazy. Storms that hit S ON almost always shift south at this point on models before trending back NW. Letís just keep watching the trends and see what things look like as we move closer to the storm.

Posted by: markj138 Jan 8 2018, 11:34 PM

QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 8 2018, 11:24 PM) *
I like where weíre at right now. GFS only shifted a bit SE, nothing crazy. Storms that hit S ON almost always shift south at this point on models before trending back NW. Letís just keep watching the trends and see what things look like as we move closer to the storm.


Yep i am actually hoping it dosent start trending west again until Wednesday,either way lots of models watching to go.

Posted by: cards101 Jan 8 2018, 11:52 PM

QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 8 2018, 11:34 PM) *
Yep i am actually hoping it dosent start trending west again until Wednesday,either way lots of models watching to go.



I agree think weíre in a very good spot.
UKMET model which was furthest east this afternoon has come way West...very similar to CMC now. Wednesday afternoon start getting sampling of that first wave, which will help

Posted by: robv1989 Jan 8 2018, 11:52 PM

Should be a fun next couple of days, I have a good feeling about this one, I'm off work for once so hoping we get clobbered tongue.gif Might be not so good for my younger sister, she has her final exam on Saturday.

Posted by: markj138 Jan 9 2018, 12:00 AM

QUOTE(cards101 @ Jan 8 2018, 11:52 PM) *
I agree think weíre in a very good spot.
UKMET model which was furthest east this afternoon has come way West...very similar to CMC now. Wednesday afternoon start getting sampling of that first wave, which will help


here is the 0Z UKMET




Posted by: cards101 Jan 9 2018, 12:02 AM

Thanks for posting.
Itís more North and west from its afternoon run...and also way more amped up.

Posted by: markj138 Jan 9 2018, 12:06 AM

QUOTE(cards101 @ Jan 9 2018, 12:02 AM) *
Thanks for posting.
Itís more North and west from its afternoon run...and also way more amped up.


Yes it looks good! also here is the 0Z CMC full snowfall map,the one i posted earlier was not the complete storm


Posted by: cards101 Jan 9 2018, 01:03 AM

Thatís UKMET precip
Shows 12-18 inches for almost everyone in s Ontario using 10:1 ratio

 

Posted by: markj138 Jan 9 2018, 01:41 AM

0 z euro came in west of its 12 z by fair bit


Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 06:23 AM

I see the overnight GFS mostly misses. Just looking at spotwx I'm guessing it's SE. We get a cold N wind with not much snow.
Should start to get a handle on the track by Wed eve/Thurs morn. I sure hope we get this one, or the cold blast behind it will be an utter waste.

Posted by: players1 Jan 9 2018, 07:39 AM



good for a laugh! myforecast is reliable....... unsure.gif

Its for St. Catharines.

Posted by: EOsnowmom Jan 9 2018, 08:21 AM

QUOTE(players1 @ Jan 9 2018, 07:39 AM) *
good for a laugh! myforecast is reliable....... unsure.gif

Its for St. Catharines.


I was thinking the same thing...could myforecast actually have had this right...for a change?? LOL We'll know by Sunday when it's over, eh?

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 9 2018, 08:31 AM

So the CMC has drfited slightly SE, the GFS more so, but the Euro has gone more NW. Still a couple of days of this I'm afraid. Fun and games 😁

Posted by: snowgeek93 Jan 9 2018, 08:36 AM

QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 9 2018, 06:23 AM) *
I see the overnight GFS mostly misses. Just looking at spotwx I'm guessing it's SE. We get a cold N wind with not much snow.
Should start to get a handle on the track by Wed eve/Thurs morn. I sure hope we get this one, or the cold blast behind it will be an utter waste.

My thoughts exactly. I just want enough snow to maybe cover up the ground again in time for another cold snap. Stupid cutter on Thursday's gonna ruin all the fun lol.

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 9 2018, 08:44 AM

QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Jan 9 2018, 08:36 AM) *
My thoughts exactly. I just want enough snow to maybe cover up the ground again in time for another cold snap. Stupid cutter on Thursday's gonna ruin all the fun lol.


That was the story of last year. I have a better feeling about this.

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 9 2018, 09:49 AM

Still out of range but if I were to extrapolate the NAM a few hours later Iíd say it would be a good hit for S ON.


Posted by: Khaled Jan 9 2018, 09:52 AM

Not too optimistic with the ECMWF solution! The GFS is consistently trending SE for the last three runs, and there is defiantly something behind that. The NAM 12z has started to follow the GFS, although we have no vision after the hour 84.

Personally, as a GTA resident, I love the Euro and Canadians solutions, but my feeling is that the GFS is winning this time! Hopefully I am wrong!

Posted by: ottawasnowstorm Jan 9 2018, 10:19 AM

This was released yesterday:

https://www.facebook.com/InstantWeatherON/photos/a.339768722827163.1073741828.326184810852221/1141837985953562/?type=3

Posted by: BIG Snowstorms Jan 9 2018, 10:33 AM

QUOTE(ottawasnowstorm @ Jan 9 2018, 10:19 AM) *
This was released yesterday:

https://www.facebook.com/InstantWeatherON/photos/a.339768722827163.1073741828.326184810852221/1141837985953562/?type=3


How are the winds looking for this system?

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 10:35 AM

QUOTE(Khaled @ Jan 9 2018, 09:52 AM) *
Not too optimistic with the ECMWF solution! The GFS is consistently trending SE for the last three runs, and there is defiantly something behind that. The NAM 12z has started to follow the GFS, although we have no vision after the hour 84.

Personally, as a GTA resident, I love the Euro and Canadians solutions, but my feeling is that the GFS is winning this time! Hopefully I am wrong!


I generally like to see ensemble agreement before jumping on the waffling of the OP runs.

At the moment, all ensemble guidance is basically in line with the CMC track. The Euro ensembles are a tad east of it's OP run...the GFS ensembles are west of it's OP run and the CMC currently has it's OP and ensembles clustered together.

It's still too many days away to be hopeful, but at the moment, all ensemble clusters are great for S Ontario.

Having said that, I'm a big believer in the idea that 99% of the time the area in the bullseye 4-5 days out ends up missing the brunt. Lol

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 10:36 AM

QUOTE(ottawasnowstorm @ Jan 9 2018, 10:19 AM) *
This was released yesterday:

https://www.facebook.com/InstantWeatherON/photos/a.339768722827163.1073741828.326184810852221/1141837985953562/?type=3


I saw that yesterday.
Gotta love social media weather maps. "the more realistic snowfall range is 30-50cm".
Someone could get that much snow, but I personally don't think maps showing 30-70cm should be posted 5 days in advance with zero certainty yet.

Posted by: players1 Jan 9 2018, 10:44 AM

QUOTE(ottawasnowstorm @ Jan 9 2018, 10:19 AM) *
This was released yesterday:

https://www.facebook.com/InstantWeatherON/photos/a.339768722827163.1073741828.326184810852221/1141837985953562/?type=3



That Facebook group was back online today explaining why they did that. laugh.gif

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 9 2018, 10:59 AM

12z GFS moves back NW and is a massive hit for S ON. Amounts closing in on 50cm for the GTA this run.

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 11:03 AM

Hence the reason we can't get hung up on run to run.

Here is the 24-hour snow totals at 10:1 ratios by Saturday afternoon on the recent 12z GFS. Came back NW from it's last few runs....


Posted by: cpasi02 Jan 9 2018, 11:03 AM

12z GFS major hit on the GTA..



 

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 9 2018, 11:04 AM

12z GEM also with a similar track to the GFS. Still several days out but I canít remember the last time models were showing such high totals this close to an event.

Posted by: BIG Snowstorms Jan 9 2018, 11:05 AM

what are winds going to be like?

And do the models show the totals with a 10:1 ratio?

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 11:10 AM

QUOTE(cpasi02 @ Jan 9 2018, 11:03 AM) *
12z GFS major hit on the GTA..



I'm assuming this is with Kuchera ratios?

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 11:11 AM

QUOTE(BIG Snowstorms @ Jan 9 2018, 11:05 AM) *
what are winds going to be like?

And do the models show the totals with a 10:1 ratio?


My map above is 10:1 ratios. 20-25cm GTA. 30-45cm Hamilton/Niagara. Temps will be plummeting and very cold aloft during the height of the storm so ratios should be better than 10:1. Will be windy too tho, so maybe 15:1 ratios??

Posted by: Stl Jan 9 2018, 11:11 AM

QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 9 2018, 10:59 AM) *
12z GFS moves back NW and is a massive hit for S ON. Amounts closing in on 50cm for the GTA this run.


Ya it does , just need the Nam and the Euro now.

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 9 2018, 11:12 AM

QUOTE(BIG Snowstorms @ Jan 9 2018, 11:05 AM) *
what are winds going to be like?

And do the models show the totals with a 10:1 ratio?

Should be breezy with some decent gusts but maybe not severe.

The instant weather maps totals are with kuchera and the tropical tidbits maps are without.

Posted by: cards101 Jan 9 2018, 11:13 AM

Canadian ukmet and latest gfs all in agreement on major snowfall for gta

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 11:15 AM

Last nights GEM run




Posted by: Stl Jan 9 2018, 11:15 AM

QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 9 2018, 11:11 AM) *
My map above is 10:1 ratios. 20-25cm GTA. 30-45cm Hamilton/Niagara. Temps will be plummeting and very cold aloft during the height of the storm so ratios should be better than 10:1. Will be windy too tho, so maybe 15:1 ratios??



12:1 would be it but for sure not above 15:1 , im not aware of the winds speed or gust at the moment though so im going with logic.

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 11:16 AM

QUOTE(Stl @ Jan 9 2018, 11:11 AM) *
Ya it does , just need the Nam and the Euro now.


I get the sense the NAM may be even further west...more like the Euro, based on it's final frame at Hour 84. But we'll know more by tomorrow eve on this system.

Posted by: BIG Snowstorms Jan 9 2018, 11:15 AM

QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 9 2018, 11:11 AM) *
My map above is 10:1 ratios. 20-25cm GTA. 30-45cm Hamilton/Niagara. Temps will be plummeting and very cold aloft during the height of the storm so ratios should be better than 10:1. Will be windy too tho, so maybe 15:1 ratios??


Wow! Should we hold off on the excitement?smile.gif

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 11:17 AM

QUOTE(Stl @ Jan 9 2018, 11:15 AM) *
12:1 would be it but for sure not above 15:1 , im not aware of the winds speed or gust at the moment though so im going with logic.


Yes, agreed. 12:1 should be almost a certainty for folks far enough away from the mixing zones.

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 11:18 AM

QUOTE(BIG Snowstorms @ Jan 9 2018, 11:15 AM) *
Wow! Should we hold off on the excitement?smile.gif


I would until Thursday morning. We've seen this scenario a gazillion times over the years. Lol
But I'll certainly be watching closely. The potential is all on the table for a massive storm. Fun to track it as it all comes together. And maybe this time will be one of our lucky ones!

Posted by: BIG Snowstorms Jan 9 2018, 11:22 AM

QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 9 2018, 11:18 AM) *
I would until Thursday morning. We've seen this scenario a gazillion times over the years. Lol
But I'll certainly be watching closely. The potential is all on the table for a massive storm. Fun to track it as it all comes together. And maybe this time will be one of our lucky ones!


Will this happen during the day on Saturday or will most of it be overnight on Friday?

Posted by: dsichewski Jan 9 2018, 11:24 AM

QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 9 2018, 11:59 AM) *
12z GFS moves back NW and is a massive hit for S ON. Amounts closing in on 50cm for the GTA this run.

Lock it in! Call in the army!!! LOL😂😂😂

Posted by: GreatWhiteTornado Jan 9 2018, 11:26 AM

Someone is definitely getting it, question where between Kentucky to Timmins

Posted by: plowguy Jan 9 2018, 11:37 AM

QUOTE(GreatWhiteTornado @ Jan 9 2018, 11:26 AM) *
Someone is definitely getting it, question where between Kentucky to Timmins

Nice. Maybe you should broaden your area laugh.gif

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 9 2018, 11:47 AM

This is going to be a heartbreaker if it lurches south East. The model agreement is really quite something.

I have changed the title as this doesn't get going until after midnight Friday. This could be quite epic given the short timeframe over which the majority of snow will fall. Could be 20-25cms in 3-4 hours in the Niagara region.

I just hope my cold has cleared so I can enjoy this one.

Posted by: trancen Jan 9 2018, 11:51 AM

Was wondering what was the worst storm for the Toronto area and found this:


Dec. 11, 1944 Ė Torontoís Biggest One-Day Snowfall

The city recorded its worst single-day snowfall on Dec. 11, 1944 when a storm dropped 48 centimetres downtown. Gale-force winds created huge drifts. A total of 57.2 centimetres fell over two days, according to Environment Canada.

Twenty-one people died during the storm, including 13 from overexertion, the federal weather agency said.

The massive snowfall forced factories producing ammunition for the Second World War to close temporarily. Funerals were also postponed, expectant moms had to be walked to hospitals and home deliveries were cancelled, according to Environment Canada.

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 12:04 PM

QUOTE(trancen @ Jan 9 2018, 11:51 AM) *
Was wondering what was the worst storm for the Toronto area and found this:
Dec. 11, 1944 – Toronto’s Biggest One-Day Snowfall

The city recorded its worst single-day snowfall on Dec. 11, 1944 when a storm dropped 48 centimetres downtown. Gale-force winds created huge drifts. A total of 57.2 centimetres fell over two days, according to Environment Canada.

Twenty-one people died during the storm, including 13 from overexertion, the federal weather agency said.

The massive snowfall forced factories producing ammunition for the Second World War to close temporarily. Funerals were also postponed, expectant moms had to be walked to hospitals and home deliveries were cancelled, according to Environment Canada.


I can't seem to find the precise largest storm in Hamilton's history. I do remember getting 70cm back in 2007...Valentines Day if I recall.

But this same Dec 11, 1944 storm you've mentioned here was also a whopper in the Hammer.
This article says 63cm of snow fell in less than 24 hours. That would be tremendous!

http://thespec-stories.com/2015/01/26/flashback-storm-of-44/

EDIT: Looks like YHM recorded 46cm of snow during the Valentines 2007 storm.
My area (N Hamilton) and S Burlington had closer to 70cm during that mega lake storm. That looks to be the largest storm ever down here.

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 12:20 PM

12z CMC stays put.




Posted by: BIG Snowstorms Jan 9 2018, 12:19 PM

Are the values shown in the models including lake enhancement? Or is this just the system snow?

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 9 2018, 12:26 PM

QUOTE(BIG Snowstorms @ Jan 9 2018, 12:19 PM) *
Are the values shown in the models including lake enhancement? Or is this just the system snow?


They will include Lake enhancement, but their resolution is not brilliant. Once the NAM 3k and 12k come into range we should get a better idea. Also most of these models are 10:1 so we can expect another 25-50% more than they are showing. The GTA is set for 35-45cms at the moment.

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 9 2018, 12:26 PM

QUOTE(BIG Snowstorms @ Jan 9 2018, 12:19 PM) *
Are the values shown in the models including lake enhancement? Or is this just the system snow?

This system doesnít look to have a significant lake enhancement signal.

Posted by: robv1989 Jan 9 2018, 12:38 PM

QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 9 2018, 12:04 PM) *
I can't seem to find the precise largest storm in Hamilton's history. I do remember getting 70cm back in 2007...Valentines Day if I recall.

But this same Dec 11, 1944 storm you've mentioned here was also a whopper in the Hammer.
This article says 63cm of snow fell in less than 24 hours. That would be tremendous!

http://thespec-stories.com/2015/01/26/flashback-storm-of-44/

EDIT: Looks like YHM recorded 46cm of snow during the Valentines 2007 storm.
My area (N Hamilton) and S Burlington had closer to 70cm during that mega lake storm. That looks to be the largest storm ever down here.


I remember that storm well, we had around 72 cm down in stoney creek, the cars were buried in the snow drifts.

Posted by: Khaled Jan 9 2018, 01:03 PM

QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 9 2018, 10:35 AM) *
I generally like to see ensemble agreement before jumping on the waffling of the OP runs.

At the moment, all ensemble guidance is basically in line with the CMC track. The Euro ensembles are a tad east of it's OP run...the GFS ensembles are west of it's OP run and the CMC currently has it's OP and ensembles clustered together.

It's still too many days away to be hopeful, but at the moment, all ensemble clusters are great for S Ontario.

Having said that, I'm a big believer in the idea that 99% of the time the area in the bullseye 4-5 days out ends up missing the brunt. Lol


Thanks a lot for your calrification. You are right, averaging ensembles and OPs would deliver great results for S.Ont. I am glad that GFS 12zz came better than what I expected. Hopefully I remain wrong! wink.gif

Posted by: cards101 Jan 9 2018, 01:18 PM

New Euro 12Z came east

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 9 2018, 01:18 PM

Difficult to tell without the precip maps yet, but the 12z ecm looks to be a good hit for S ON as it came in east of the 00z run.

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 9 2018, 01:20 PM

Basically all models are on board except for maybe the ukie as it was far west.

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 01:26 PM

Yea, pretty much all models agreed, and have us in the best spot for big snows....3 days out....sigh.... I wanted to see this kind of consensus Fri morning, not now. haha

Posted by: Weather X Jan 9 2018, 01:27 PM

QUOTE(trancen @ Jan 9 2018, 11:51 AM) *
Was wondering what was the worst storm for the Toronto area and found this:
Dec. 11, 1944 – Toronto’s Biggest One-Day Snowfall

The city recorded its worst single-day snowfall on Dec. 11, 1944 when a storm dropped 48 centimetres downtown. Gale-force winds created huge drifts. A total of 57.2 centimetres fell over two days, according to Environment Canada.

Twenty-one people died during the storm, including 13 from overexertion, the federal weather agency said.

The massive snowfall forced factories producing ammunition for the Second World War to close temporarily. Funerals were also postponed, expectant moms had to be walked to hospitals and home deliveries were cancelled, according to Environment Canada.


My Grandmother always talks about this storm. She said you couldn't see your hand in front of your face and the snow was up to her dad's waist. My grandma and her mom had to go out and rescue him because he was set on going to work despite the weather, but he didn't make it past the front yard.

She also talks about Hurricane Hazel and the massive flooding. People could literally go down the street in canoes, and in fact they did use boats to rescue people.

Also hi to everyone. Those who don't know me, I am probably one of the only members of the Canadian forums from way back in the day (2007/8). I still lurk whenever there's extreme whether in the forecast however, I've become too busy at university with no time to analyze. We definitely have some more qualified posters now who know there way around the Models and have surpassed my amateur forecasting abilities.

Still fun to chime in when things are brewing though.

Posted by: Khaled Jan 9 2018, 01:27 PM

QUOTE(Khaled @ Jan 9 2018, 01:03 PM) *
Thanks a lot for your calrification. You are right, averaging ensembles and OPs would deliver great results for S.Ont. I am glad that GFS 12zz came better than what I expected. Hopefully I remain wrong! wink.gif


ECMWF 12z has .9 qpf of snow for YYZ. This is a 20-25 cm for the GTA from the second round only! a couple more at the end of the first wave as well!

Posted by: puttin Jan 9 2018, 01:28 PM

QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 9 2018, 12:26 PM) *
They will include Lake enhancement, but their resolution is not brilliant. Once the NAM 3k and 12k come into range we should get a better idea. Also most of these models are 10:1 so we can expect another 25-50% more than they are showing. The GTA is set for 35-45cms at the moment.


Holy *bleep* if this materializes...supposed to be going to the boat show on Saturday but me thinks I'll have to convince hubby otherwise. Seems pretty amazing that all the weather reporters on tv are already hyped that this is going to happen albeit they have knocked the totals down until the event gets closer but as we know, anything can happen. Still fun to watch this monster be born!

Posted by: Khaled Jan 9 2018, 01:34 PM

Brett Anderson just tweeted:

"Latest ECMWF forecast model has trended slightly east with the Fri/Sat storm, which would send heaviest snow from Indiana to NW Ohio through most of southern/easter Ontario".

Brett is a big fan of the Euro, by the way!

Posted by: markj138 Jan 9 2018, 01:43 PM

QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 9 2018, 01:26 PM) *
Yea, pretty much all models agreed, and have us in the best spot for big snows....3 days out....sigh.... I wanted to see this kind of consensus Fri morning, not now. haha


Yep! i was hoping the euro would stay west/the gfs stay east & the cmc/uk in the middle for a couple of more days & then on Thursday 0z BOOM they all come together but its happening already.

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 01:44 PM

12z Euro snowfall 10:1 ratios

Yellow is 30-40cm

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/michigan/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180114-2100z.html

Posted by: plowguy Jan 9 2018, 02:31 PM

QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 9 2018, 01:44 PM) *
12z Euro snowfall 10:1 ratios

Yellow is 30-40cm

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/michigan/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180114-2100z.html

I guess we can deal with a foot of snow. I would prefer that is the top end!

Posted by: BIG Snowstorms Jan 9 2018, 02:36 PM

TWN has 20-25cm down for Hamilton. What model are they looking at?

Posted by: puttin Jan 9 2018, 03:06 PM

QUOTE(BIG Snowstorms @ Jan 9 2018, 02:36 PM) *
TWN has 20-25cm down for Hamilton. What model are they looking at?


Here is E.C.'s take on it, three days out...

 

Posted by: knorthern_knight Jan 9 2018, 03:48 PM

QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 9 2018, 10:59 AM) *
12z GFS moves back NW and is a massive hit for S ON. Amounts closing in on 50cm for the GTA this run.

The GFS giveth, and the GFS taketh away, and the GFS giveth...

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z  9JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   30 01/10 18Z   31     28    0.01 -FZRN   31     19    0.0  0.01
   33 01/10 21Z   34     34    0.02 -RA     34     31    0.0  0.03
   36 01/11 00Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     31    0.0  0.05
   39 01/11 03Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.07
   42 01/11 06Z   38     38    0.05 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.12
   45 01/11 09Z   38     38    0.04 -RA     38     38    0.0  0.16
   48 01/11 12Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.18
   51 01/11 15Z   37     37    0.01 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.19
   54 01/11 18Z   37     37    0.00 -RA     37     37    0.0
   57 01/11 21Z   38     38    0.01 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.01
   60 01/12 00Z   39     39    0.05 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.06
   63 01/12 03Z   39     39    0.17 RA      39     39    0.0  0.23
   66 01/12 06Z   40     40    0.29 RA      40     39    0.0  0.52
   69 01/12 09Z   41     41    0.05 -RA     41     40    0.0  0.57
   72 01/12 12Z   34     34    0.21 -RA     41     34    0.0  0.78
   75 01/12 15Z   28     25    0.13 -FZRN   34     28    0.0  0.91
   78 01/12 18Z   26     22    0.01 -PL     34     26    0.0  0.92
   81 01/12 21Z   23     18    0.00         26     23    0.0
   84 01/13 00Z   20     16    0.03 -SN     26     20    0.4  0.03    0.4
   87 01/13 03Z   19     17    0.07 -SN     20     19    1.0  0.10    1.4
   90 01/13 06Z   16     15    0.25 SN      20     16    4.0  0.35    5.4
   93 01/13 09Z   12     11    0.32 SN      16     12    5.4  0.67   10.8
   96 01/13 12Z    9      8    0.27 SN      16      9    5.3  0.94   16.1
   99 01/13 15Z    7      5    0.17 SN       9      6    3.5  1.11   19.6
  102 01/13 18Z    7      5    0.05 -SN      9      6    1.2  1.16   20.8
  105 01/13 21Z    9      6    0.01 -SN      9      7    0.3  1.17   21.1
  108 01/14 00Z    3      1    0.00 -SN      9      3    0.0
  111 01/14 03Z   -2     -4    0.00          3     -2    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z  9JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   33 01/10 21Z   33     33    0.02 -RA     33     30    0.0  0.02
   36 01/11 00Z   35     34    0.02 -RA     35     30    0.0  0.04
   39 01/11 03Z   36     35    0.02 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.06
   42 01/11 06Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.08
   45 01/11 09Z   37     37    0.04 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.12
   48 01/11 12Z   38     37    0.01 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.13
   51 01/11 15Z   38     38    0.01 -RA     38     38    0.0  0.14
   54 01/11 18Z   39     39    0.01 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.15
   57 01/11 21Z   40     40    0.01 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.16
   60 01/12 00Z   42     41    0.01 -RA     42     39    0.0  0.17
   63 01/12 03Z   43     42    0.09 -RA     43     42    0.0  0.26
   66 01/12 06Z   44     43    0.28 RA      44     42    0.0  0.54
   69 01/12 09Z   44     43    0.07 -RA     44     44    0.0  0.61
   72 01/12 12Z   39     38    0.15 -RA     44     39    0.0  0.76
   75 01/12 15Z   31     29    0.13 -FZRN   39     31    0.0  0.89
   78 01/12 18Z   28     23    0.01 -PL     39     28    0.0  0.90
   81 01/12 21Z   23     17    0.00         27     23    0.0
   84 01/13 00Z   20     14    0.02 -SN     27     20    0.1  0.02    0.1
   87 01/13 03Z   18     13    0.05 -SN     20     18    0.7  0.07    0.8
   90 01/13 06Z   14     13    0.15 -SN     20     14    2.5  0.22    3.3
   93 01/13 09Z   10      9    0.29 SN      14     10    4.7  0.51    8.0
   96 01/13 12Z    8      6    0.30 SN      14      7    5.3  0.81   13.3
   99 01/13 15Z    6      5    0.21 SN       7      6    4.4  1.02   17.7
  102 01/13 18Z    7      5    0.08 -SN      8      6    1.8  1.10   19.5
  105 01/13 21Z    8      4    0.01 -SN      8      7    0.4  1.11   19.9
  108 01/14 00Z    4      2    0.00 -SN      8      4    0.0
  111 01/14 03Z    0     -2    0.00          4      0    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z  9JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   33 01/10 21Z   33     33    0.03 -RA     33     31    0.0  0.03
   36 01/11 00Z   35     35    0.02 -RA     35     31    0.0  0.05
   39 01/11 03Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.06
   42 01/11 06Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.08
   45 01/11 09Z   38     38    0.05 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.13
   48 01/11 12Z   38     38    0.01 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.14
   51 01/11 15Z   39     38    0.02 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.16
   54 01/11 18Z   40     39    0.01 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.17
   57 01/11 21Z   42     40    0.02 -RA     42     40    0.0  0.19
   60 01/12 00Z   43     41    0.00 -RA     44     40    0.0
   63 01/12 03Z   43     42    0.02 -RA     43     43    0.0  0.02
   66 01/12 06Z   45     43    0.05 -RA     45     43    0.0  0.07
   69 01/12 09Z   45     43    0.05 -RA     46     45    0.0  0.12
   72 01/12 12Z   44     43    0.04 -RA     46     44    0.0  0.16
   75 01/12 15Z   36     34    0.12 -RA     44     36    0.0  0.28
   78 01/12 18Z   33     28    0.04 -RA     44     33    0.0  0.32
   81 01/12 21Z   26     21    0.02 -PL     33     26    0.0  0.34
   84 01/13 00Z   20     17    0.08 -SN     33     20    0.9  0.42    0.9
   87 01/13 03Z   18     17    0.25 SN      20     18    3.4  0.67    4.3
   90 01/13 06Z   16     15    0.13 SN      20     16    1.9  0.80    6.2
   93 01/13 09Z   13     10    0.30 SN      16     13    3.3  1.10    9.5
   96 01/13 12Z   10      8    0.26 SN      16      9    4.9  1.36   14.4
   99 01/13 15Z    8      7    0.15 -SN     10      8    3.2  1.51   17.6
  102 01/13 18Z   10      7    0.06 -SN     10      8    1.3  1.57   18.9
  105 01/13 21Z   11      8    0.01 -SN     11     10    0.4  1.58   19.3
  108 01/14 00Z    5      3    0.00 -SN     11      5    0.0
  111 01/14 03Z    0     -2    0.00          4      0    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z  9JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   33 01/10 21Z   31     28    0.01 -RA     31     29    0.0  0.01
   36 01/11 00Z   34     34    0.02 -RA     34     29    0.0  0.03
   39 01/11 03Z   36     35    0.01 -RA     36     34    0.0  0.04
   42 01/11 06Z   37     36    0.01 -RA     37     34    0.0  0.05
   45 01/11 09Z   37     37    0.04 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.09
   48 01/11 12Z   38     37    0.01 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.10
   51 01/11 15Z   38     37    0.01 -RA     38     38    0.0  0.11
   54 01/11 18Z   39     38    0.00 -RA     39     38    0.0
   57 01/11 21Z   40     39    0.01 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.01
   60 01/12 00Z   42     40    0.00 -RA     42     39    0.0
   63 01/12 03Z   42     40    0.04 -RA     42     41    0.0  0.04
   66 01/12 06Z   43     41    0.08 -RA     43     41    0.0  0.12
   69 01/12 09Z   43     41    0.07 -RA     44     43    0.0  0.19
   72 01/12 12Z   42     41    0.07 -RA     44     42    0.0  0.26
   75 01/12 15Z   35     32    0.14 -RA     42     35    0.0  0.40
   78 01/12 18Z   27     21    0.03 -FZRN   41     27    0.0  0.43
   81 01/12 21Z   22     16    0.01 -PL     27     22    0.0  0.44
   84 01/13 00Z   20     15    0.04 -SN     27     19    0.5  0.48    0.5
   87 01/13 03Z   18     16    0.14 -SN     20     18    2.0  0.62    2.5
   90 01/13 06Z   16     15    0.14 -SN     20     16    2.0  0.76    4.5
   93 01/13 09Z   13     11    0.25 SN      16     13    3.8  1.01    8.3
   96 01/13 12Z   11      9    0.18 SN      16     11    3.2  1.19   11.5
   99 01/13 15Z    9      8    0.19 SN      11      9    3.9  1.38   15.4
  102 01/13 18Z    8      6    0.07 -SN     11      7    1.6  1.45   17.0
  105 01/13 21Z    8      5    0.02 -SN      9      8    0.4  1.47   17.4
  108 01/14 00Z    7      3    0.00 -SN      9      6    0.0
  111 01/14 03Z    4      1    0.00          6      3    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z  9JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   36 01/11 00Z   25     24    0.02 -PL     25     22    0.0  0.02
   39 01/11 03Z   32     31    0.02 -FZRN   32     25    0.0  0.04
   42 01/11 06Z   34     34    0.01 -RA     34     25    0.0  0.05
   45 01/11 09Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.06
   48 01/11 12Z   36     36    0.07 -RA     36     34    0.0  0.13
   51 01/11 15Z   36     36    0.00 -RA     36     36    0.0
   54 01/11 18Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.01
   57 01/11 21Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.03
   60 01/12 00Z   36     36    0.03 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.06
   63 01/12 03Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.08
   66 01/12 06Z   38     38    0.00 -RA     38     36    0.0
   69 01/12 09Z   40     40    0.01 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.01
   72 01/12 12Z   41     40    0.02 -RA     41     38    0.0  0.03
   75 01/12 15Z   41     41    0.07 -RA     41     41    0.0  0.10
   78 01/12 18Z   33     30    0.08 -RA     41     33    0.0  0.18
   81 01/12 21Z   19     16    0.11 -PL     31     19    0.0  0.29
   84 01/13 00Z   16     12    0.04 -SN     31     16    0.5  0.33    0.5
   87 01/13 03Z   14     11    0.06 -SN     16     14    0.8  0.39    1.3
   90 01/13 06Z   11     10    0.14 -SN     16     11    2.0  0.53    3.3
   93 01/13 09Z   11     10    0.16 SN      11     10    2.3  0.69    5.6
   96 01/13 12Z    9      9    0.31 SN      11      9    4.7  1.00   10.3
   99 01/13 15Z   11     10    0.31 SN      12      9    4.3  1.31   14.6
  102 01/13 18Z   11      8    0.16 SN      12      9    2.5  1.47   17.1
  105 01/13 21Z    9      6    0.10 -SN     11      9    2.3  1.57   19.4
  108 01/14 00Z    4      1    0.01 -SN     11      4    0.4  1.58   19.8
  111 01/14 03Z    0     -4    0.00 -SN      4      0    0.0
  114 01/14 06Z   -6     -8    0.00          4     -6    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
CYUL MontrÔŅĹal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z  9JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   39 01/11 03Z   30     27    0.01 -FZRN   30     24    0.0  0.01
   42 01/11 06Z   33     32    0.02 -RA     33     24    0.0  0.03
   45 01/11 09Z   34     34    0.02 -RA     34     33    0.0  0.05
   48 01/11 12Z   36     36    0.03 -RA     36     33    0.0  0.08
   51 01/11 15Z   36     36    0.03 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.11
   54 01/11 18Z   37     37    0.01 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.12
   57 01/11 21Z   37     37    0.05 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.17
   60 01/12 00Z   37     37    0.06 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.23
   63 01/12 03Z   39     39    0.21 RA      39     37    0.0  0.44
   66 01/12 06Z   38     38    0.16 RA      39     37    0.0  0.60
   69 01/12 09Z   38     38    0.04 -RA     38     38    0.0  0.64
   72 01/12 12Z   39     38    0.00 -RA     39     38    0.0
   75 01/12 15Z   40     40    0.05 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.05
   78 01/12 18Z   39     39    0.08 -RA     41     39    0.0  0.13
   81 01/12 21Z   36     35    0.16 RA      39     36    0.0  0.29
   84 01/13 00Z   26     25    0.10 -PL     39     26    0.5  0.39    0.5
   87 01/13 03Z   20     19    0.15 -SN     26     20    1.6  0.54    2.1
   90 01/13 06Z   17     14    0.08 -SN     26     17    0.9  0.62    3.0
   93 01/13 09Z   14     12    0.10 -SN     17     14    1.0  0.72    4.0
   96 01/13 12Z   11     10    0.33 SN      17     11    3.6  1.05    7.6
   99 01/13 15Z   11      9    0.46 SN      12     10    4.3  1.51   11.9
  102 01/13 18Z   14     11    0.18 SN      14     10    2.4  1.69   14.3
  105 01/13 21Z   14     12    0.09 -SN     14     13    1.4  1.78   15.7
  108 01/14 00Z    8      6    0.02 -SN     14      8    0.6  1.80   16.3
  111 01/14 03Z    9      6    0.01 -SN      9      8    0.2  1.81   16.5
  114 01/14 06Z    0     -1    0.00 -SN      9      0    0.0
  117 01/14 09Z   -5     -7    0.00          0     -5    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
CYQB QuÔŅĹbec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z  9JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   42 01/11 06Z   21     20    0.04 -SN     21     12    0.4  0.04    0.4
   45 01/11 09Z   25     24    0.01 -SN     25     21    0.0  0.05
   48 01/11 12Z   29     29    0.01 -FZRN   29     21    0.0  0.06
   51 01/11 15Z   34     34    0.02 -RA     34     29    0.0  0.08
   54 01/11 18Z   36     36    0.03 -RA     36     29    0.0  0.11
   57 01/11 21Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.12
   60 01/12 00Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.14
   63 01/12 03Z   37     36    0.10 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.24
   66 01/12 06Z   37     37    0.17 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.41
   69 01/12 09Z   38     38    0.04 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.45
   72 01/12 12Z   38     38    0.04 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.49
   75 01/12 15Z   40     38    0.10 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.59
   78 01/12 18Z   42     41    0.20 RA      43     38    0.0  0.79
   81 01/12 21Z   38     37    0.19 RA      43     38    0.0  0.98
   84 01/13 00Z   27     24    0.05 -FZRN   43     27    0.0  1.03
   87 01/13 03Z   22     17    0.01 -SN     27     22    0.1  1.04    0.1
   90 01/13 06Z   20     16    0.06 -SN     27     19    0.8  1.10    0.9
   93 01/13 09Z   18     15    0.05 -SN     20     18    0.6  1.15    1.5
   96 01/13 12Z   15     13    0.14 -SN     20     15    1.9  1.29    3.4
   99 01/13 15Z   12     10    0.26 SN      14     13    3.0  1.55    6.4
  102 01/13 18Z   12      8    0.13 SN      14     12    0.6  1.68    7.0
  105 01/13 21Z   13     10    0.13 -SN     13     12    1.4  1.81    8.4
  108 01/14 00Z   15     14    0.18 SN      15     12    2.7  1.99   11.1
  111 01/14 03Z   15     15    0.06 -SN     16     15    1.2  2.05   12.3
  114 01/14 06Z   10      8    0.02 -SN     16     10    0.3  2.07   12.6
  117 01/14 09Z    0      0    0.00          9      0    0.0

Posted by: puttin Jan 9 2018, 03:55 PM

So which column do you add up, the precip or snow. Sorry, I'm not good adding this up and even then, I wouldn't know how much it said... Seems it is the talk of the town today, all media stations are taking a stab at this....

Posted by: snowgeek93 Jan 9 2018, 03:57 PM

Meh, we'll see what models say by Friday... rolleyes.gif

Posted by: Stl Jan 9 2018, 04:10 PM

QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Jan 9 2018, 03:48 PM) *
The GFS giveth, and the GFS taketh away, and the GFS giveth...

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z  9JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   30 01/10 18Z   31     28    0.01 -FZRN   31     19    0.0  0.01
   33 01/10 21Z   34     34    0.02 -RA     34     31    0.0  0.03
   36 01/11 00Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     31    0.0  0.05
   39 01/11 03Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.07
   42 01/11 06Z   38     38    0.05 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.12
   45 01/11 09Z   38     38    0.04 -RA     38     38    0.0  0.16
   48 01/11 12Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.18
   51 01/11 15Z   37     37    0.01 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.19
   54 01/11 18Z   37     37    0.00 -RA     37     37    0.0
   57 01/11 21Z   38     38    0.01 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.01
   60 01/12 00Z   39     39    0.05 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.06
   63 01/12 03Z   39     39    0.17 RA      39     39    0.0  0.23
   66 01/12 06Z   40     40    0.29 RA      40     39    0.0  0.52
   69 01/12 09Z   41     41    0.05 -RA     41     40    0.0  0.57
   72 01/12 12Z   34     34    0.21 -RA     41     34    0.0  0.78
   75 01/12 15Z   28     25    0.13 -FZRN   34     28    0.0  0.91
   78 01/12 18Z   26     22    0.01 -PL     34     26    0.0  0.92
   81 01/12 21Z   23     18    0.00         26     23    0.0
   84 01/13 00Z   20     16    0.03 -SN     26     20    0.4  0.03    0.4
   87 01/13 03Z   19     17    0.07 -SN     20     19    1.0  0.10    1.4
   90 01/13 06Z   16     15    0.25 SN      20     16    4.0  0.35    5.4
   93 01/13 09Z   12     11    0.32 SN      16     12    5.4  0.67   10.8
   96 01/13 12Z    9      8    0.27 SN      16      9    5.3  0.94   16.1
   99 01/13 15Z    7      5    0.17 SN       9      6    3.5  1.11   19.6
  102 01/13 18Z    7      5    0.05 -SN      9      6    1.2  1.16   20.8
  105 01/13 21Z    9      6    0.01 -SN      9      7    0.3  1.17   21.1
  108 01/14 00Z    3      1    0.00 -SN      9      3    0.0
  111 01/14 03Z   -2     -4    0.00          3     -2    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z  9JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   33 01/10 21Z   33     33    0.02 -RA     33     30    0.0  0.02
   36 01/11 00Z   35     34    0.02 -RA     35     30    0.0  0.04
   39 01/11 03Z   36     35    0.02 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.06
   42 01/11 06Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.08
   45 01/11 09Z   37     37    0.04 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.12
   48 01/11 12Z   38     37    0.01 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.13
   51 01/11 15Z   38     38    0.01 -RA     38     38    0.0  0.14
   54 01/11 18Z   39     39    0.01 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.15
   57 01/11 21Z   40     40    0.01 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.16
   60 01/12 00Z   42     41    0.01 -RA     42     39    0.0  0.17
   63 01/12 03Z   43     42    0.09 -RA     43     42    0.0  0.26
   66 01/12 06Z   44     43    0.28 RA      44     42    0.0  0.54
   69 01/12 09Z   44     43    0.07 -RA     44     44    0.0  0.61
   72 01/12 12Z   39     38    0.15 -RA     44     39    0.0  0.76
   75 01/12 15Z   31     29    0.13 -FZRN   39     31    0.0  0.89
   78 01/12 18Z   28     23    0.01 -PL     39     28    0.0  0.90
   81 01/12 21Z   23     17    0.00         27     23    0.0
   84 01/13 00Z   20     14    0.02 -SN     27     20    0.1  0.02    0.1
   87 01/13 03Z   18     13    0.05 -SN     20     18    0.7  0.07    0.8
   90 01/13 06Z   14     13    0.15 -SN     20     14    2.5  0.22    3.3
   93 01/13 09Z   10      9    0.29 SN      14     10    4.7  0.51    8.0
   96 01/13 12Z    8      6    0.30 SN      14      7    5.3  0.81   13.3
   99 01/13 15Z    6      5    0.21 SN       7      6    4.4  1.02   17.7
  102 01/13 18Z    7      5    0.08 -SN      8      6    1.8  1.10   19.5
  105 01/13 21Z    8      4    0.01 -SN      8      7    0.4  1.11   19.9
  108 01/14 00Z    4      2    0.00 -SN      8      4    0.0
  111 01/14 03Z    0     -2    0.00          4      0    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z  9JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   33 01/10 21Z   33     33    0.03 -RA     33     31    0.0  0.03
   36 01/11 00Z   35     35    0.02 -RA     35     31    0.0  0.05
   39 01/11 03Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.06
   42 01/11 06Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.08
   45 01/11 09Z   38     38    0.05 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.13
   48 01/11 12Z   38     38    0.01 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.14
   51 01/11 15Z   39     38    0.02 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.16
   54 01/11 18Z   40     39    0.01 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.17
   57 01/11 21Z   42     40    0.02 -RA     42     40    0.0  0.19
   60 01/12 00Z   43     41    0.00 -RA     44     40    0.0
   63 01/12 03Z   43     42    0.02 -RA     43     43    0.0  0.02
   66 01/12 06Z   45     43    0.05 -RA     45     43    0.0  0.07
   69 01/12 09Z   45     43    0.05 -RA     46     45    0.0  0.12
   72 01/12 12Z   44     43    0.04 -RA     46     44    0.0  0.16
   75 01/12 15Z   36     34    0.12 -RA     44     36    0.0  0.28
   78 01/12 18Z   33     28    0.04 -RA     44     33    0.0  0.32
   81 01/12 21Z   26     21    0.02 -PL     33     26    0.0  0.34
   84 01/13 00Z   20     17    0.08 -SN     33     20    0.9  0.42    0.9
   87 01/13 03Z   18     17    0.25 SN      20     18    3.4  0.67    4.3
   90 01/13 06Z   16     15    0.13 SN      20     16    1.9  0.80    6.2
   93 01/13 09Z   13     10    0.30 SN      16     13    3.3  1.10    9.5
   96 01/13 12Z   10      8    0.26 SN      16      9    4.9  1.36   14.4
   99 01/13 15Z    8      7    0.15 -SN     10      8    3.2  1.51   17.6
  102 01/13 18Z   10      7    0.06 -SN     10      8    1.3  1.57   18.9
  105 01/13 21Z   11      8    0.01 -SN     11     10    0.4  1.58   19.3
  108 01/14 00Z    5      3    0.00 -SN     11      5    0.0
  111 01/14 03Z    0     -2    0.00          4      0    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z  9JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   33 01/10 21Z   31     28    0.01 -RA     31     29    0.0  0.01
   36 01/11 00Z   34     34    0.02 -RA     34     29    0.0  0.03
   39 01/11 03Z   36     35    0.01 -RA     36     34    0.0  0.04
   42 01/11 06Z   37     36    0.01 -RA     37     34    0.0  0.05
   45 01/11 09Z   37     37    0.04 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.09
   48 01/11 12Z   38     37    0.01 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.10
   51 01/11 15Z   38     37    0.01 -RA     38     38    0.0  0.11
   54 01/11 18Z   39     38    0.00 -RA     39     38    0.0
   57 01/11 21Z   40     39    0.01 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.01
   60 01/12 00Z   42     40    0.00 -RA     42     39    0.0
   63 01/12 03Z   42     40    0.04 -RA     42     41    0.0  0.04
   66 01/12 06Z   43     41    0.08 -RA     43     41    0.0  0.12
   69 01/12 09Z   43     41    0.07 -RA     44     43    0.0  0.19
   72 01/12 12Z   42     41    0.07 -RA     44     42    0.0  0.26
   75 01/12 15Z   35     32    0.14 -RA     42     35    0.0  0.40
   78 01/12 18Z   27     21    0.03 -FZRN   41     27    0.0  0.43
   81 01/12 21Z   22     16    0.01 -PL     27     22    0.0  0.44
   84 01/13 00Z   20     15    0.04 -SN     27     19    0.5  0.48    0.5
   87 01/13 03Z   18     16    0.14 -SN     20     18    2.0  0.62    2.5
   90 01/13 06Z   16     15    0.14 -SN     20     16    2.0  0.76    4.5
   93 01/13 09Z   13     11    0.25 SN      16     13    3.8  1.01    8.3
   96 01/13 12Z   11      9    0.18 SN      16     11    3.2  1.19   11.5
   99 01/13 15Z    9      8    0.19 SN      11      9    3.9  1.38   15.4
  102 01/13 18Z    8      6    0.07 -SN     11      7    1.6  1.45   17.0
  105 01/13 21Z    8      5    0.02 -SN      9      8    0.4  1.47   17.4
  108 01/14 00Z    7      3    0.00 -SN      9      6    0.0
  111 01/14 03Z    4      1    0.00          6      3    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z  9JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   36 01/11 00Z   25     24    0.02 -PL     25     22    0.0  0.02
   39 01/11 03Z   32     31    0.02 -FZRN   32     25    0.0  0.04
   42 01/11 06Z   34     34    0.01 -RA     34     25    0.0  0.05
   45 01/11 09Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.06
   48 01/11 12Z   36     36    0.07 -RA     36     34    0.0  0.13
   51 01/11 15Z   36     36    0.00 -RA     36     36    0.0
   54 01/11 18Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.01
   57 01/11 21Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.03
   60 01/12 00Z   36     36    0.03 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.06
   63 01/12 03Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.08
   66 01/12 06Z   38     38    0.00 -RA     38     36    0.0
   69 01/12 09Z   40     40    0.01 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.01
   72 01/12 12Z   41     40    0.02 -RA     41     38    0.0  0.03
   75 01/12 15Z   41     41    0.07 -RA     41     41    0.0  0.10
   78 01/12 18Z   33     30    0.08 -RA     41     33    0.0  0.18
   81 01/12 21Z   19     16    0.11 -PL     31     19    0.0  0.29
   84 01/13 00Z   16     12    0.04 -SN     31     16    0.5  0.33    0.5
   87 01/13 03Z   14     11    0.06 -SN     16     14    0.8  0.39    1.3
   90 01/13 06Z   11     10    0.14 -SN     16     11    2.0  0.53    3.3
   93 01/13 09Z   11     10    0.16 SN      11     10    2.3  0.69    5.6
   96 01/13 12Z    9      9    0.31 SN      11      9    4.7  1.00   10.3
   99 01/13 15Z   11     10    0.31 SN      12      9    4.3  1.31   14.6
  102 01/13 18Z   11      8    0.16 SN      12      9    2.5  1.47   17.1
  105 01/13 21Z    9      6    0.10 -SN     11      9    2.3  1.57   19.4
  108 01/14 00Z    4      1    0.01 -SN     11      4    0.4  1.58   19.8
  111 01/14 03Z    0     -4    0.00 -SN      4      0    0.0
  114 01/14 06Z   -6     -8    0.00          4     -6    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
CYUL MontrÔŅĹal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z  9JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   39 01/11 03Z   30     27    0.01 -FZRN   30     24    0.0  0.01
   42 01/11 06Z   33     32    0.02 -RA     33     24    0.0  0.03
   45 01/11 09Z   34     34    0.02 -RA     34     33    0.0  0.05
   48 01/11 12Z   36     36    0.03 -RA     36     33    0.0  0.08
   51 01/11 15Z   36     36    0.03 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.11
   54 01/11 18Z   37     37    0.01 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.12
   57 01/11 21Z   37     37    0.05 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.17
   60 01/12 00Z   37     37    0.06 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.23
   63 01/12 03Z   39     39    0.21 RA      39     37    0.0  0.44
   66 01/12 06Z   38     38    0.16 RA      39     37    0.0  0.60
   69 01/12 09Z   38     38    0.04 -RA     38     38    0.0  0.64
   72 01/12 12Z   39     38    0.00 -RA     39     38    0.0
   75 01/12 15Z   40     40    0.05 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.05
   78 01/12 18Z   39     39    0.08 -RA     41     39    0.0  0.13
   81 01/12 21Z   36     35    0.16 RA      39     36    0.0  0.29
   84 01/13 00Z   26     25    0.10 -PL     39     26    0.5  0.39    0.5
   87 01/13 03Z   20     19    0.15 -SN     26     20    1.6  0.54    2.1
   90 01/13 06Z   17     14    0.08 -SN     26     17    0.9  0.62    3.0
   93 01/13 09Z   14     12    0.10 -SN     17     14    1.0  0.72    4.0
   96 01/13 12Z   11     10    0.33 SN      17     11    3.6  1.05    7.6
   99 01/13 15Z   11      9    0.46 SN      12     10    4.3  1.51   11.9
  102 01/13 18Z   14     11    0.18 SN      14     10    2.4  1.69   14.3
  105 01/13 21Z   14     12    0.09 -SN     14     13    1.4  1.78   15.7
  108 01/14 00Z    8      6    0.02 -SN     14      8    0.6  1.80   16.3
  111 01/14 03Z    9      6    0.01 -SN      9      8    0.2  1.81   16.5
  114 01/14 06Z    0     -1    0.00 -SN      9      0    0.0
  117 01/14 09Z   -5     -7    0.00          0     -5    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
CYQB QuÔŅĹbec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z  9JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   42 01/11 06Z   21     20    0.04 -SN     21     12    0.4  0.04    0.4
   45 01/11 09Z   25     24    0.01 -SN     25     21    0.0  0.05
   48 01/11 12Z   29     29    0.01 -FZRN   29     21    0.0  0.06
   51 01/11 15Z   34     34    0.02 -RA     34     29    0.0  0.08
   54 01/11 18Z   36     36    0.03 -RA     36     29    0.0  0.11
   57 01/11 21Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.12
   60 01/12 00Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.14
   63 01/12 03Z   37     36    0.10 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.24
   66 01/12 06Z   37     37    0.17 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.41
   69 01/12 09Z   38     38    0.04 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.45
   72 01/12 12Z   38     38    0.04 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.49
   75 01/12 15Z   40     38    0.10 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.59
   78 01/12 18Z   42     41    0.20 RA      43     38    0.0  0.79
   81 01/12 21Z   38     37    0.19 RA      43     38    0.0  0.98
   84 01/13 00Z   27     24    0.05 -FZRN   43     27    0.0  1.03
   87 01/13 03Z   22     17    0.01 -SN     27     22    0.1  1.04    0.1
   90 01/13 06Z   20     16    0.06 -SN     27     19    0.8  1.10    0.9
   93 01/13 09Z   18     15    0.05 -SN     20     18    0.6  1.15    1.5
   96 01/13 12Z   15     13    0.14 -SN     20     15    1.9  1.29    3.4
   99 01/13 15Z   12     10    0.26 SN      14     13    3.0  1.55    6.4
  102 01/13 18Z   12      8    0.13 SN      14     12    0.6  1.68    7.0
  105 01/13 21Z   13     10    0.13 -SN     13     12    1.4  1.81    8.4
  108 01/14 00Z   15     14    0.18 SN      15     12    2.7  1.99   11.1
  111 01/14 03Z   15     15    0.06 -SN     16     15    1.2  2.05   12.3
  114 01/14 06Z   10      8    0.02 -SN     16     10    0.3  2.07   12.6
  117 01/14 09Z    0      0    0.00          9      0    0.0



Thanks , 7 more GFS runs to go rolleyes.gif

Posted by: jsut Jan 9 2018, 04:11 PM

QUOTE(puttin @ Jan 9 2018, 03:55 PM) *
So which column do you add up, the precip or snow. Sorry, I'm not good adding this up and even then, I wouldn't know how much it said... Seems it is the talk of the town today, all media stations are taking a stab at this....


in knorthern_knight's posts, the last column is doing the adding for you, as long as there is snow in each consecutive segment.

Posted by: cards101 Jan 9 2018, 04:24 PM

I think itís improtsnt to remember that with a cold High Pressure to the NW of the storm that ratios will be much higher then 10:1 that the models use. 15:1 is a good ratio to use

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 04:31 PM

QUOTE(Stl @ Jan 9 2018, 04:10 PM) *
Thanks , 7 more GFS runs to go rolleyes.gif


Is this 10:1 ratios?? Shows me over 19 inches. Wow...I wish it was Thurs night or Fri morning.

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 04:31 PM

Final frame of the 18z NAM....a great track




Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 04:34 PM

Also for those wondering....the upper level winds and temps are conducive for lake enhancement in Hamilton/Burlington if this track were to verify...eventually swinging into Niagara as the storm goes by.
This is the 850mb and 925mb level...these are the levels that you like to see wind alignment and colder temps for lake enhancement. This is around 1am Sat morning....




Posted by: markj138 Jan 9 2018, 04:45 PM

QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 9 2018, 04:31 PM) *
Final frame of the 18z NAM....a great track



Nice look there! 18Z GFS rolling....

Posted by: markj138 Jan 9 2018, 04:57 PM

OH the gfs should be GOOD!

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 9 2018, 04:58 PM

Bullseye...

Posted by: markj138 Jan 9 2018, 04:59 PM

it actually came in a little west of the 12z

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 9 2018, 05:00 PM

I think everyone, except Plowguy, would be happy with this;



Posted by: snowball Jan 9 2018, 05:01 PM

Wow that would paralyze

Posted by: snowball Jan 9 2018, 05:02 PM

... the 401 especially can you iamgine

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 9 2018, 05:05 PM

Pearson, Ottawa, Montreal airports closed. Most major highways unusable in the morning, local highways impassable, city streets...lucky it's a weekend!

Posted by: EOsnowmom Jan 9 2018, 05:14 PM

QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 9 2018, 05:05 PM) *
Pearson, Ottawa, Montreal airports closed. Most major highways unusable in the morning, local highways impassable, city streets...lucky it's a weekend!

That's why I told my family to have (minimum) 3 days worth of food/water/heat etc. Emergency & hydro personal will be stretched thin given the size of this storm and it could be awhile in a worse case scenario.

Posted by: puttin Jan 9 2018, 05:14 PM

QUOTE(jsut @ Jan 9 2018, 04:11 PM) *
in knorthern_knight's posts, the last column is doing the adding for you, as long as there is snow in each consecutive segment.

Oh I see, thank you.. About 17 inches.. Brutal if it comes to fruition

Posted by: snowgeek93 Jan 9 2018, 05:32 PM

Man, if only this wasn't still 3 days out. Looks like a potentially awesome storm, the likes of which we haven't seen here since 2013.

Posted by: puttin Jan 9 2018, 05:38 PM

QUOTE(EOsnowmom @ Jan 9 2018, 05:14 PM) *
That's why I told my family to have (minimum) 3 days worth of food/water/heat etc. Emergency & hydro personal will be stretched thin given the size of this storm and it could be awhile in a worse case scenario.

Good idea regardless, you never know... It's times like this, if it happens, that I feel badly for emergency services, out there no matter...and the plows guys... Let's see I guess...

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 05:39 PM

Yowzers...GFS with a new look. It brings the 850mb low almost to the south shore of Lake Erie!
Brings mixing with pellets as far north as south side of Hamilton on Sat morning.

The best snows usually fall about 150-200km NW of the 850mb low.
Just to show how minor changes can make a big difference when we're trying to nail down snow amounts I'll show you the placement of the 850mb low from the 12z GFS vs. the 18z, and then I'll plot the snowfall maps.

12z GFS had the 850mb low in NW PA.


Roughly 150-200km to the 'cold' side of the 850 low you see the snow totals. I'm using ratio maps as they better show where the colder air/better snow zone is in the storm. Ignore totals, just notice the placement of the axis of heavy snow:




Now, note how the 850mb low comes further north on the 18z and thus the heaviest snow is further north:
850mb low almost touching Lake Erie...pushes a slug of mild air aloft into Niagara with pellets/freezing rain with this sort of track.




And as a result, the heaviest axis of snow is further north:



These sorts of details are all vital in placing the best snow zone in a big storm like this.
Any deviation in track can be critical.

At any rate, another great run from the GFS....as long as things stay in our neck of the woods the next couple days I'll be happy.

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 9 2018, 05:41 PM

QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Jan 9 2018, 05:32 PM) *
Man, if only this wasn't still 3 days out. Looks like a potentially awesome storm, the likes of which we haven't seen here since 2013.


We did very well in that one, about 43cms. I changed my flight to New Zealand because of it. This could be every bit as good, maybe more epic due to the concentrated timelines.

3 days out.

Posted by: markj138 Jan 9 2018, 05:46 PM

Great analysis mr m,we are going to see more of these little wobbles the next few days,most of us will be mentally fatigued by the time the storm gets here laugh.gif

Posted by: PGM Jan 9 2018, 05:47 PM

Wunderground has 40-50cm now for MBY, significantly higher than earlier. This might actually happen....

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 05:55 PM

QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 9 2018, 05:46 PM) *
Great analysis mr m,we are going to see more of these little wobbles the next few days,most of us will be mentally fatigued by the time the storm gets here laugh.gif


haha...yep...we all want the jackpot. Hopefully it tracks right through here so we all win.

By the way, for those wondering why the added ice pellet mixing in Niagara happens with the recent northern track of the 850mb low... it's this little surge of mild air at the 700mb level....temps nudge above 0 at 700mb into Niagara....allows the precip to change to rain up at 700mb, but then freeze into pellets as it falls back through the colder air at the lower levels:



That results in this look at the surface at the same timeframe:

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 9 2018, 05:54 PM

Nice analysis MrM. We did well in this run up here, looking at 20 inches, or 50cms. That would be the single biggest snowfall I have ever witnessed.

Posted by: PGM Jan 9 2018, 05:54 PM

On top of the 45+cm snow pack with 1+m banks we already got... I can see this being devastating

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 05:59 PM

QUOTE(PGM @ Jan 9 2018, 05:47 PM) *
Wunderground has 40-50cm now for MBY, significantly higher than earlier. This might actually happen....


Lake effect - "Nice analysis MrM. We did well in this run up here, looking at 20 inches, or 50cms. That would be the single biggest snowfall I have ever witnessed."



My backyard gets the shaft on that run...only 30cm. haha!

Posted by: plowguy Jan 9 2018, 06:00 PM

QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 9 2018, 05:00 PM) *
I think everyone, except Plowguy, would be happy with this;



If it comes in as short of a period as it looks like it will be okay.

We have larger loaders for just such a storm. Saturday also helps. Anything over 10" and nobody is on the roads.
I do have my suspicions based on most models agreeing to dump 3days before a storm that it may move one way or another. That is just based on my 30 years of doing this.

Posted by: Jeremy404 Jan 9 2018, 06:06 PM

If this verifies will it be the largest storm for the GTA since "Nemo" in 2013?

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 06:17 PM

I just really hate being in the bullseye 3 days out.... I'll be antsy on this until I wake up Thurs morn and see us still in the bullseye. Even then, it's not safe, but getting safer.

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 9 2018, 06:21 PM

QUOTE(plowguy @ Jan 9 2018, 06:00 PM) *
If it comes in as short of a period as it looks like it will be okay.

We have larger loaders for just such a storm. Saturday also helps. Anything over 10" and nobody is on the roads.
I do have my suspicions based on most models agreeing to dump 3days before a storm that it may move one way or another. That is just based on my 30 years of doing this.


Agreed. The issue with this one is the steep gradient between epic event and damp squib. A shift of 50kms could be everything.

Posted by: snowball Jan 9 2018, 06:34 PM

One thing I've noticed is that this has never gone so far as to move East of the Appalachians or "off to sea". Something we've seen in the past with monster systems like this that were visible so early on. As such I think it's becoming fairly certain that we'll see some snow just a matter of how much.

Posted by: Bob and Karen Jan 9 2018, 07:36 PM

Guys, Pennsylvania Peeps respectfully request your forecasting skill for Ontarioís Algonquin Provincial Park for this Friday and Saturday...What are your thoughts? Weíll continue to watch for your commentary up to our departure 3 AM Friday from Southeastern Pennsylvania. ETA Algonquin: 3 PM Friday.

Our snow loviní family will be vacationing in Algonquin to enjoy the snow, winter activities and some R&R.

Posted by: BIG Snowstorms Jan 9 2018, 08:01 PM

TWN has changed the total snowfall amount to 20-30cm for Hamilton😁

Posted by: dsichewski Jan 9 2018, 08:15 PM

QUOTE(BIG Snowstorms @ Jan 9 2018, 09:01 PM) *
TWN has changed the total snowfall amount to 20-30cm for Hamilton😁

We're 20-25 here in Guelph....I'd rather it be higher! Ok I'm a bit biased as it will give me lots of work for the next 2 weeks plowing and hauling all the snow away! Wonder if I'll match or beat my season high 31 (21 ton capacity) dump Truck loads off a single site in about 9-10 hrs from last year lol

Posted by: EOsnowmom Jan 9 2018, 08:36 PM

QUOTE(Bob and Karen @ Jan 9 2018, 07:36 PM) *
Guys, Pennsylvania Peeps respectfully request your forecasting skill for Ontarioís Algonquin Provincial Park for this Friday and Saturday...What are your thoughts? Weíll continue to watch for your commentary up to our departure 3 AM Friday from Southeastern Pennsylvania. ETA Algonquin: 3 PM Friday.

Our snow loviní family will be vacationing in Algonquin to enjoy the snow, winter activities and some R&R.

You might get more than you bargained for. If this snow hits Saturday, you may not be able to get out.

Posted by: Astronomer Jan 9 2018, 08:39 PM

From Brett Anderson via Twitter at 8:18 PM Tuesday:

"Based on expected track/intensity of storm Fri nt/Sat. this is where I think the highest chance for heavy snow or signif. ice is. Track still quite uncertain at this point, thus this can easily shift."



Posted by: snowball Jan 9 2018, 08:41 PM

i would expect EC to start posting weather watches as soon as tomorrow.

Posted by: cards101 Jan 9 2018, 08:43 PM

Tonightís runs will have some sampling in it.

Posted by: GreatWhiteTornado Jan 9 2018, 08:51 PM

If the Sahara desert can get 40 cm we should be able to also smile.gif

Posted by: cards101 Jan 9 2018, 08:54 PM

Sref came in amped up...expect NAM to be strong. Hopefully not too far to the NW

Posted by: GreatWhiteTornado Jan 9 2018, 09:00 PM

40 users on, pretty good for our side...

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 09:00 PM

I'm worried about a NW trend.
Seen many a storm in my day look sweet and then just get amped up and pull NW...the dreaded mix zone...I'm familiar with it, living this far south.
Hoping it stays decently SE over the next 36 hours to leave some wiggle room NW at the last minute.

Posted by: cards101 Jan 9 2018, 09:02 PM

The high to the north or the storm should help keep it from going too far NW

Posted by: snowgeek93 Jan 9 2018, 09:05 PM

QUOTE(Astronomer @ Jan 9 2018, 08:39 PM) *
From Brett Anderson via Twitter at 8:18 PM Tuesday:

"Based on expected track/intensity of storm Fri nt/Sat. this is where I think the highest chance for heavy snow or signif. ice is. Track still quite uncertain at this point, thus this can easily shift."



Brett's teasing us snow lovers down here tongue.gif

Posted by: cards101 Jan 9 2018, 09:12 PM

NAM May drop enormous snow amounts for our area in the 00z run

Posted by: gurtej101 Jan 9 2018, 09:14 PM

hope this doesnt track too much NW i dont want to be in a mixing situation here in St. Catharines

Posted by: ottawasnowstorm Jan 9 2018, 09:15 PM

From what I am reading around, is it possible the storm really hits Ottawa hard in the afternoon and evening? The reason I ask is that EC seems to have Ottawa under periods of snow during the day on Saturday and "snow" in the evening/night time (I'm assuming the 'snow" is the heavier stuff). I may be reading some of the models wrong but it seems like the heavy stuff is still south of Ottawa at 6:00 am and noon hour? Am I missing anything here? It's important as I maybe working during the day and if it comes in later on, then I won't miss it all. Thanks in advance to any who may offer insight.

Posted by: akula Jan 9 2018, 09:16 PM

Please go east!

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 09:18 PM

Some ensembles to look at before the next round of models.

Awesome track from the 18z GFS ensembles... through PA from here...



Little further SE from the CMC ensembles



Euro ensembles...great track


Posted by: akula Jan 9 2018, 09:41 PM

Comments on the us board indicate an East shift for the precip shield

Posted by: cards101 Jan 9 2018, 09:47 PM

Bad 00z NAM run...convective feedback issues.
No way low gets that Far East . There will be correction . But still great for Hamilton niagara corridor

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 09:49 PM

NAM 00z more east....here is the look at it's final frame at hour 84. 7am Saturday. The 850mb low poised to travel to our SE on a nice track from here.
I can't post snow totals because they aren't showing up for some reason, even after several hours of moderate to heavy snowfall.


Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 09:51 PM

QUOTE(cards101 @ Jan 9 2018, 09:47 PM) *
Bad 00z NAM run...convective feedback issues.
No way low gets that Far East . There will be correction . But still great for Hamilton niagara corridor


Probably worth a reminder that we'll see many solutions east and west over the next 2 days. It's the nature of tracking something this far in advance. I wish I hadn't known about this storm until tomorrow night. haha

Posted by: dsichewski Jan 9 2018, 09:52 PM

QUOTE(akula @ Jan 9 2018, 10:41 PM) *
Comments on the us board indicate an East shift for the precip shield

What do we want it to do? Besides the obvious drop as much as possible in our areas lol

Posted by: akula Jan 9 2018, 09:54 PM

QUOTE(dsichewski @ Jan 9 2018, 09:52 PM) *
What do we want it to do? Besides the obvious drop as much as possible in our areas lol


Well the NAM is too fast east but it should correct

Posted by: markj138 Jan 9 2018, 09:54 PM

Kinda surprised by the run,i thought it may come in a little further west,but it is the nam in its long range,lets see what the rest of the 0z runs have to say.

Posted by: cards101 Jan 9 2018, 09:58 PM

The low when from North Carolina to West Virginia...it wonít move like that

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 9 2018, 09:59 PM

JB thinks it's too far east....
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/950924133637992448

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 9 2018, 10:01 PM

The nail biting begins. The NAM has given us the jitters. We've seen it all too often before...snowmaggedon is within our grasp, only for it to slip over the border and dump on NY and Vermont.

Posted by: cards101 Jan 9 2018, 10:02 PM

Weíre still good everyone...6z NAM will correct imo.
Wouldnít start really paying attention to NAM though until maybe 12z run or better yet tomorrow 00z

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 9 2018, 10:09 PM

QUOTE(Bob and Karen @ Jan 9 2018, 07:36 PM) *
Guys, Pennsylvania Peeps respectfully request your forecasting skill for Ontarioís Algonquin Provincial Park for this Friday and Saturday...What are your thoughts? Weíll continue to watch for your commentary up to our departure 3 AM Friday from Southeastern Pennsylvania. ETA Algonquin: 3 PM Friday.

Our snow loviní family will be vacationing in Algonquin to enjoy the snow, winter activities and some R&R.


The Algonquin is just north of most of the big predictions from most runs so far. The current snow amounts aren't huge looking at the maps...maybe 40cms, and that will be cut in half over the next two days. May not be at its best unfortunately, but a slight northward shift of this storm could see all that change.

Posted by: snowball Jan 9 2018, 10:16 PM

There you go, just as I say we haven't had a run east of the east we get one. I like JBs assessment but he could stand to explain why. If NAM corrects back at any upcoming runs I think we are much closer to model consensus. I think we'll know in the morning if not by tomorrow night IMO.

Posted by: GreatWhiteTornado Jan 9 2018, 10:45 PM

Let's see gfs within hour to see the trend

Posted by: cards101 Jan 9 2018, 10:49 PM

Starting now

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 9 2018, 10:54 PM

GFS goes East. Not good.

Posted by: GreatWhiteTornado Jan 9 2018, 10:58 PM

Gfs looks way east, Niagara does well that's about it

Posted by: GreatWhiteTornado Jan 9 2018, 11:00 PM

Kurchera went from 20 inches to 0.6 inches.
Well one thing this won't be location anyways just who knows where.
Let's see euro at 130 approx

Posted by: BIG Snowstorms Jan 9 2018, 11:02 PM

QUOTE(GreatWhiteTornado @ Jan 9 2018, 11:00 PM) *
Kurchera went from 20 inches to 0.6 inches.
Well one thing this won't be location anyways just who knows where.
Let's see euro at 130 approx


Uh-oh

Posted by: markj138 Jan 9 2018, 11:04 PM

Still a ton of model runs to go yet,if its still showing this oz Thursday then yeah we are done.

Posted by: cards101 Jan 9 2018, 11:04 PM

Canadian is east as well...still a big snowstorm

But trend appears east

Posted by: markj138 Jan 9 2018, 11:06 PM

QUOTE(cards101 @ Jan 9 2018, 11:04 PM) *
Canadian is east as well...still a big snowstorm

But trend appears east


yep cmc still has us in the game


Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 9 2018, 11:48 PM

I wouldnít even be slightly concerned about the NAM and GFS being east at this point. Chances are the 06z or more likely the 12z runs will shift back NW. GFS is notorious for shifting east at this point when showing a big storm and then it has a NW shift back to what it had before. Really interested in what the euro will show.

Posted by: markj138 Jan 10 2018, 12:23 AM

QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 9 2018, 11:48 PM) *
I wouldnít even be slightly concerned about the NAM and GFS being east at this point. Chances are the 06z or more likely the 12z runs will shift back NW. GFS is notorious for shifting east at this point when showing a big storm and then it has a NW shift back to what it had before. Really interested in what the euro will show.


I will be up for the euro tonight,ukie came east too so i am guessing euro will follow.

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 10 2018, 12:37 AM

Yeah donít have precip maps yet but I just checked on meteo centre site and the ukmet did go east. Not sure if the precip sheld would be too far east or not.

Posted by: markj138 Jan 10 2018, 12:48 AM

QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 10 2018, 12:37 AM) *
Yeah donít have precip maps yet but I just checked on meteo centre site and the ukmet did go east. Not sure if the precip sheld would be too far east or not.


The 0z gefs ensembles is further west with the precip shield than the 0z gfs op


Posted by: akula Jan 10 2018, 12:49 AM

GEFS ensembles are further west

Posted by: markj138 Jan 10 2018, 12:50 AM

QUOTE(akula @ Jan 10 2018, 12:49 AM) *
GEFS ensembles are further west


ha i just posted an image on the last page!

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 10 2018, 12:52 AM

QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 10 2018, 12:48 AM) *
The 0z gefs ensembles is further west with the precip shield than the 0z gfs op

Thatís interesting. Should see the GFS op correct on the 06z run.

Posted by: Stl Jan 10 2018, 12:56 AM

If it goes back West i think we should be fine but the mixed precipation line is close if this is the case , the higher the accumulation zone is the higher the mixing risk are present.

QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 9 2018, 11:17 AM) *
Yes, agreed. 12:1 should be almost a certainty for folks far enough away from the mixing zones.


Problably the far away zone and the close to the mix zone who doesn't mix will receive the most snow. The ratio should compensate a bit for those further eventhough im a bit skeptic with this happening.

Posted by: markj138 Jan 10 2018, 01:32 AM

0 z euro almost a complete miss for the gta


Posted by: knorthern_knight Jan 10 2018, 02:01 AM

QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 9 2018, 04:31 PM) *
Is this 10:1 ratios?? Shows me over 19 inches. Wow...I wish it was Thurs night or Fri morning.

The GFS text forecast uses computed ratios. Compare 3 hour amounts under...

CODE
  TPrcp
   in.

column versus 3 hour amounts under

CODE
  Snowfall
     in

column. It seems to go from 10:1 to 20:1.

Posted by: knorthern_knight Jan 10 2018, 02:16 AM

The GFS loves me; the GFS loves me not sad.gif It seems to have moved east. GFS text calls for Southern Ontario to get very little snow, except for Hamilton (lake effect enhancement?). Ottawa/Montreal/Quebec still get decent amounts. The text outputs are based on 00Z and 12Z GFS. The outputs are ready a bit before 1:00 AM and 1:00 PM EST.

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z 10JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   18 01/10 18Z   31     29    0.01         31     20    0.0  0.01
   21 01/10 21Z   34     34    0.03 -RA     34     31    0.0  0.04
   24 01/11 00Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     31    0.0  0.06
   27 01/11 03Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.08
   30 01/11 06Z   38     38    0.10 -RA     39     36    0.0  0.18
   33 01/11 09Z   38     38    0.04 -RA     38     38    0.0  0.22
   36 01/11 12Z   38     38    0.03 -RA     38     38    0.0  0.25
   39 01/11 15Z   37     37    0.01 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.26
   42 01/11 18Z   37     37    0.00 -RA     38     37    0.0
   45 01/11 21Z   37     37    0.01 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.01
   48 01/12 00Z   39     39    0.01 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.02
   51 01/12 03Z   39     39    0.10 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.12
   54 01/12 06Z   39     39    0.03 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.15
   57 01/12 09Z   40     40    0.03 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.18
   60 01/12 12Z   34     33    0.11 -RA     40     34    0.0  0.29
   63 01/12 15Z   27     24    0.03 -FZRN   33     27    0.0  0.32
   66 01/12 18Z   23     20    0.05 -SN     33     23    0.3  0.37    0.3
   69 01/12 21Z   19     15    0.04 -SN     23     19    0.5  0.41    0.8
   72 01/13 00Z   19     13    0.00 -SN     23     18    0.0
   75 01/13 03Z   17     10    0.00         19     17    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z 10JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   21 01/10 21Z   33     33    0.03 -RA     33     30    0.0  0.03
   24 01/11 00Z   35     35    0.03 -RA     35     30    0.0  0.06
   27 01/11 03Z   37     36    0.02 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.08
   30 01/11 06Z   37     37    0.03 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.11
   33 01/11 09Z   38     38    0.05 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.16
   36 01/11 12Z   38     38    0.03 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.19
   39 01/11 15Z   38     38    0.02 -RA     38     38    0.0  0.21
   42 01/11 18Z   40     39    0.01 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.22
   45 01/11 21Z   40     39    0.01 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.23
   48 01/12 00Z   43     42    0.00 -RA     43     39    0.0
   51 01/12 03Z   43     42    0.09 -RA     44     43    0.0  0.09
   54 01/12 06Z   43     42    0.03 -RA     44     42    0.0  0.12
   57 01/12 09Z   43     42    0.01 -RA     43     43    0.0  0.13
   60 01/12 12Z   37     36    0.10 -RA     43     37    0.0  0.23
   63 01/12 15Z   32     28    0.02 -FZRN   37     32    0.0  0.25
   66 01/12 18Z   24     19    0.03 -SN     37     24    0.2  0.28    0.2
   69 01/12 21Z   20     14    0.04 -SN     24     20    0.5  0.32    0.7
   72 01/13 00Z   18     11    0.00 -SN     24     18    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z 10JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   21 01/10 21Z   33     33    0.04 -RA     33     31    0.0  0.04
   24 01/11 00Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     31    0.0  0.06
   27 01/11 03Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.08
   30 01/11 06Z   38     38    0.03 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.11
   33 01/11 09Z   39     39    0.05 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.16
   36 01/11 12Z   40     39    0.01 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.17
   39 01/11 15Z   40     39    0.01 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.18
   42 01/11 18Z   41     39    0.00 -RA     41     39    0.0
   45 01/11 21Z   43     40    0.00         43     41    0.0
   48 01/12 00Z   45     44    0.03 -RA     45     41    0.0  0.03
   51 01/12 03Z   45     43    0.03 -RA     46     45    0.0  0.06
   54 01/12 06Z   44     42    0.01 -RA     46     43    0.0  0.07
   57 01/12 09Z   45     43    0.01 -RA     45     44    0.0  0.08
   60 01/12 12Z   43     42    0.11 -RA     45     42    0.0  0.19
   63 01/12 15Z   36     32    0.08 -RA     42     36    0.0  0.27
   66 01/12 18Z   29     24    0.05 -PL     42     29    0.0  0.32
   69 01/12 21Z   23     19    0.05 -SN     29     23    0.7  0.37    0.7
   72 01/13 00Z   19     14    0.03 -SN     29     19    0.5  0.40    1.2
   75 01/13 03Z   18     10    0.01 -SN     19     18    0.2  0.41    1.4
   78 01/13 06Z   15      8    0.06 -SN     19     15    0.9  0.47    2.3
   81 01/13 09Z   12      6    0.12 -SN     15     12    2.1  0.59    4.4
   84 01/13 12Z   10      4    0.07 -SN     15     10    1.5  0.66    5.9
   87 01/13 15Z    9      1    0.01 -SN     10      9    0.2  0.67    6.1
   90 01/13 18Z   11      1    0.00 -SN     11      9    0.0
   93 01/13 21Z   11      1    0.00         12     11    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z 10JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   21 01/10 21Z   31     29    0.02 -RA     31     29    0.0  0.02
   24 01/11 00Z   34     34    0.03 -RA     34     29    0.0  0.05
   27 01/11 03Z   37     36    0.01 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.06
   30 01/11 06Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.08
   33 01/11 09Z   39     38    0.04 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.12
   36 01/11 12Z   39     38    0.02 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.14
   39 01/11 15Z   39     38    0.01 -RA     39     39    0.0  0.15
   42 01/11 18Z   40     39    0.00         40     39    0.0
   45 01/11 21Z   39     37    0.00         40     39    0.0
   48 01/12 00Z   42     41    0.01 -RA     42     39    0.0  0.01
   51 01/12 03Z   43     42    0.04 -RA     44     43    0.0  0.05
   54 01/12 06Z   42     41    0.02 -RA     44     42    0.0  0.07
   57 01/12 09Z   42     41    0.00         43     42    0.0
   60 01/12 12Z   40     40    0.11 -RA     43     40    0.0  0.11
   63 01/12 15Z   34     30    0.05 -RA     40     34    0.0  0.16
   66 01/12 18Z   23     18    0.07 -PL     40     23    0.0  0.23
   69 01/12 21Z   19     15    0.05 -SN     23     19    0.7  0.28    0.7
   72 01/13 00Z   18     11    0.01 -SN     23     18    0.1  0.29    0.8
   75 01/13 03Z   17      8    0.00         18     17    0.0
   78 01/13 06Z   16      5    0.00         18     16    0.0
   81 01/13 09Z   14      2    0.00         16     14    0.0
   84 01/13 12Z   11      1    0.01 -SN     16     11    0.3  0.01    0.3
   87 01/13 15Z   10      0    0.00         11     10    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z 10JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   24 01/11 00Z   27     26    0.01 -PL     27     23    0.0  0.01
   27 01/11 03Z   34     33    0.04 -RA     34     27    0.0  0.05
   30 01/11 06Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     27    0.0  0.06
   33 01/11 09Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     35    0.0  0.07
   36 01/11 12Z   36     36    0.06 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.13
   39 01/11 15Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.14
   42 01/11 18Z   37     37    0.01 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.15
   45 01/11 21Z   36     36    0.00 -RA     36     36    0.0
   48 01/12 00Z   36     36    0.00 -RA     36     36    0.0
   51 01/12 03Z   38     38    0.06 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.06
   54 01/12 06Z   39     39    0.03 -RA     39     36    0.0  0.09
   57 01/12 09Z   41     41    0.02 -RA     41     39    0.0  0.11
   60 01/12 12Z   42     41    0.02 -RA     42     39    0.0  0.13
   63 01/12 15Z   41     41    0.04 -RA     42     41    0.0  0.17
   66 01/12 18Z   29     26    0.12 -FZRN   42     29    0.0  0.29
   69 01/12 21Z   17     14    0.06 -SN     27     17    0.2  0.35    0.2
   72 01/13 00Z   14     10    0.03 -SN     27     14    0.5  0.38    0.7
   75 01/13 03Z   13      7    0.01         14     13    0.2  0.39    0.9
   78 01/13 06Z   10      4    0.02         14     10    0.3  0.41    1.2
   81 01/13 09Z    8      3    0.09 -SN     10      8    1.4  0.50    2.6
   84 01/13 12Z    6      3    0.06 -SN     10      6    1.2  0.56    3.8
   87 01/13 15Z    5      4    0.11 -SN      6      5    2.3  0.67    6.1
   90 01/13 18Z    7      5    0.05 -SN      7      5    1.2  0.72    7.3
   93 01/13 21Z    6      3    0.04 -SN      7      6    1.0  0.76    8.3
   96 01/14 00Z    5      2    0.00 -SN      7      5    0.0
   99 01/14 03Z    4      0    0.00 -SN      5      4    0.0
  102 01/14 06Z    1     -1    0.00 -SN      5      1    0.0
  105 01/14 09Z    0     -3    0.00          1      0    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
CYUL MontrÔŅĹal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
GFS Model Run:  0Z 10JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   27 01/11 03Z   31     29    0.02 -RA     31     25    0.0  0.02
   30 01/11 06Z   33     33    0.02 -RA     33     25    0.0  0.04
   33 01/11 09Z   35     35    0.02 -RA     35     33    0.0  0.06
   36 01/11 12Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     33    0.0  0.08
   39 01/11 15Z   37     37    0.07 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.15
   42 01/11 18Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.17
   45 01/11 21Z   37     37    0.01 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.18
   48 01/12 00Z   37     37    0.01 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.19
   51 01/12 03Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.21
   54 01/12 06Z   38     38    0.17 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.38
   57 01/12 09Z   39     39    0.02 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.40
   60 01/12 12Z   39     39    0.05 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.45
   63 01/12 15Z   40     40    0.01 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.46
   66 01/12 18Z   41     41    0.03 -RA     42     39    0.0  0.49
   69 01/12 21Z   35     32    0.05 -RA     41     35    0.0  0.54
   72 01/13 00Z   26     22    0.05 -SN     41     26    0.7  0.59    0.7
   75 01/13 03Z   21     18    0.05 -SN     26     21    0.5  0.64    1.2
   78 01/13 06Z   17     15    0.08 -SN     26     17    1.0  0.72    2.2
   81 01/13 09Z   11     11    0.26 SN      17     11    4.1  0.98    6.3
   84 01/13 12Z    9      8    0.34 SN      17      9    5.1  1.32   11.4
   87 01/13 15Z    8      7    0.22 SN       9      8    4.2  1.54   15.6
   90 01/13 18Z    9      7    0.03 -SN     10      8    0.6  1.57   16.2
   93 01/13 21Z    9      7    0.04 -SN      9      9    0.9  1.61   17.1
   96 01/14 00Z    7      5    0.02 -SN      9      7    0.3  1.63   17.4
   99 01/14 03Z    5      3    0.01 -SN      7      5    0.0  1.64
  102 01/14 06Z    5      4    0.01 -SN      7      5    0.3  1.65    0.3
  105 01/14 09Z    5      4    0.01 -SN      6      5    0.3  1.66    0.6
  108 01/14 12Z    2      1    0.00 -SN      6      2    0.0
  111 01/14 15Z    5      3    0.00          5      0    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
CYQB QuÔŅĹbec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
GFS Model Run:  0Z 10JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   27 01/11 03Z   18     15    0.00 -SN     18     12    0.0
   30 01/11 06Z   21     20    0.03 -SN     21     12    0.2  0.03    0.2
   33 01/11 09Z   25     24    0.02 -FZRN   25     21    0.0  0.05
   36 01/11 12Z   31     30    0.01 -FZRN   31     21    0.0  0.06
   39 01/11 15Z   34     34    0.02 -RA     35     31    0.0  0.08
   42 01/11 18Z   37     36    0.01 -RA     37     31    0.0  0.09
   45 01/11 21Z   37     36    0.02 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.11
   48 01/12 00Z   37     36    0.01 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.12
   51 01/12 03Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.13
   54 01/12 06Z   37     37    0.13 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.26
   57 01/12 09Z   40     39    0.05 -RA     40     37    0.0  0.31
   60 01/12 12Z   41     40    0.03 -RA     41     37    0.0  0.34
   63 01/12 15Z   43     42    0.08 -RA     43     41    0.0  0.42
   66 01/12 18Z   44     42    0.05 -RA     44     41    0.0  0.47
   69 01/12 21Z   39     38    0.09 -RA     44     39    0.0  0.56
   72 01/13 00Z   25     20    0.02 -PL     44     25    0.0  0.58
   75 01/13 03Z   21     13    0.00         25     21    0.0
   78 01/13 06Z   19     11    0.01         25     19    0.1  0.01    0.1
   81 01/13 09Z   18     12    0.06         19     17    1.0  0.07    1.1
   84 01/13 12Z   13     12    0.21 -SN     19     13    3.5  0.28    4.6
   87 01/13 15Z   12     10    0.21 SN      13     11    4.0  0.49    8.6
   90 01/13 18Z   11      8    0.11 SN      13     11    2.0  0.60   10.6
   93 01/13 21Z   11      9    0.05 -SN     12     11    0.9  0.65   11.5
   96 01/14 00Z    9      7    0.06 -SN     12      9    1.3  0.71   12.8
   99 01/14 03Z    8      6    0.02 -SN      9      8    0.5  0.73   13.3
  102 01/14 06Z    8      7    0.03 -SN      9      8    0.6  0.76   13.9
  105 01/14 09Z    8      7    0.03 -SN      8      8    0.8  0.79   14.7
  108 01/14 12Z    7      6    0.02 -SN      8      7    0.4  0.81   15.1
  111 01/14 15Z    9      7    0.00 -SN      9      5    0.0
  114 01/14 18Z   10      8    0.00 -SN     10      5    0.0
  117 01/14 21Z    6      5    0.00 -SN     10      6    0.0
  120 01/15 00Z    0     -1    0.00         10      0    0.0

Posted by: BIG Snowstorms Jan 10 2018, 06:14 AM

Anybody think this may move NW and put us back in the game?

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 06:25 AM

06z GFS...I'm only using the ratio map to clearly show where the heaviest axis of snow sets up....basically a perfect run for most of us





10:1 snowfall from the NAM....a decent hit, but misses to the east with the big stuff




CMC largely the same



Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 06:31 AM

FYI...full sampling won't happen until tomorrow morning. So we watch the back and forth waffling today.

Flatter faster system will go east...stronger, amped up, negative titled will come NW.

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 10 2018, 07:04 AM

Going to be a nerve wracking 30 hours. Tomorrows 12Z is the one to watch. It is mildly concerning all the runs lurched East last night.

Posted by: Ottawa blizzard Jan 10 2018, 07:16 AM

QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 10 2018, 07:04 AM) *
Going to be a nerve wracking 30 hours. Tomorrows 12Z is the one to watch. It is mildly concerning all the runs lurched East last night.

It is never good to be in the bullseye so far out I'm thinking 10 cm for Toronto, 15-20 cm for the Niagara peninsula.

Posted by: snowball Jan 10 2018, 07:26 AM

GFS pulled back in and NAM moved west too. I'll take it as a win for this morning.

Posted by: BIG Snowstorms Jan 10 2018, 07:32 AM

What is meant by sampling and when is this done?

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 10 2018, 07:45 AM

QUOTE(Ottawa blizzard @ Jan 10 2018, 07:16 AM) *
It is never good to be in the bullseye so far out I'm thinking 10 cm for Toronto, 15-20 cm for the Niagara peninsula.


Yep, and trace-5cms for Barrie. I just want the ugliness of the impending thaw to be prettied up. Need a good 10cms for that, and I'm not optimistic at this stage.

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 10 2018, 08:11 AM

Great sign from the models this morning with the 06z NAM and 06z GFS getting back on board. Watch for continued shifts back NW in the later runs. My confidence in this system is about as high as it can be for a system still a few days out.

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 10 2018, 08:21 AM

QUOTE(BIG Snowstorms @ Jan 10 2018, 07:32 AM) *
What is meant by sampling and when is this done?

The main energy for this system is still developing and wonít be over land until probably tomorrow. When some areas of energy are developed and over land itís what we call partial sampling. When everything is fully developed and not just modeled to develop we call it full sampling. Usually you get a shift in track when fully sampled. More times than not itís to the NW with this type of system.


Posted by: snowgeek93 Jan 10 2018, 08:38 AM

Blah, this model drama is getting old and we still have a couple of days to go.

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 10 2018, 08:43 AM

QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Jan 10 2018, 08:38 AM) *
Blah, this model drama is getting old and we still have a couple of days to go.


All part of the "fun" of tracking a wi ter storm.

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 08:51 AM

CMC ensembles are furthest NW, crossing central PA.
GFS ensembles are furthest SE, heading towards NYC
Euro is in the middle, through SE PA


Posted by: plowguy Jan 10 2018, 08:54 AM

QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 10 2018, 08:51 AM) *
CMC ensembles are furthest NW, crossing central PA.
GFS ensembles are furthest SE, heading towards NYC
Euro is in the middle, through SE PA

So it could go anywhere...lol!

Posted by: Astronomer Jan 10 2018, 08:57 AM

Via Twitter:

Brett Anderson @BrettAWX
3m3 minutes ago

Majority of of forecast models have trended slightly east with projected heaviest snowfall axis for Fri nt/Sat storm, with heaviest snowfall through Niagara region and up through St. Lawrence Valley.
==================

Surprised he's even reporting this, given how the models will wobble over the next couple of days, and there's still no real agreement yet.

Posted by: snowball Jan 10 2018, 09:00 AM

QUOTE(Astronomer @ Jan 10 2018, 08:57 AM) *
Via Twitter:

Brett Anderson @BrettAWX
3m3 minutes ago

Majority of of forecast models have trended slightly east with projected heaviest snowfall axis for Fri nt/Sat storm, with heaviest snowfall through Niagara region and up through St. Lawrence Valley.
==================

Surprised he's even reporting this, given how the models will wobble over the next couple of days, and there's still no real agreement yet.


Well he posted a map last night don't forget so he's probably trying to cover himself a little bit if the heaviest snowfall moves East.

It could just as easily move west today is very important to consensus.

Posted by: kitfoxflyer Jan 10 2018, 09:03 AM

QUOTE(snowball @ Jan 10 2018, 09:00 AM) *
Well he posted a map last night don't forget so he's probably trying to cover himself a little bit if the heaviest snowfall moves East.

It could just as easily move west today is very important to consensus.



get out the dart board !!

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 09:05 AM

my personal opinion is that we'll have a good idea where this is trending by mid-day Thursday. After Thurs night's runs, I'd expect minor changes in track and intensity.

Basic players are:
- pieces of energy merging...does it, and how soon? Result is huge for track: either amped up, or flatter and east.
- cold air pushing down from the N with that big H pressure. If it gets more aggressive, it should push things SE. Less aggressive, more NW

Today I suspect we'll see all kinds of solutions...tomorrow we start to hone in on a probable outcome.

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 09:27 AM

12z NAM so far a tad east and weaker. 1007mb low in central Alabama at Hr 51 compared with 1005 low in western Alabama on the previous run.


Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 09:37 AM

ignore my above post....it was still developing in the deep south.

850mb low is basically in line with the last run. Maybe a bit north.
System is faster on this run too.


Posted by: Lake effect Jan 10 2018, 09:45 AM

Bust for all but Niagara on this side of the border in S. ONTARIO. I can see this theme developing as we have said many times. Was too good to be true.

Montreal looks like a major hit though.

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 09:47 AM

NAM is a tad NW from it's previous run. Low passes N of Long Island instead of South.

But it's less juicy. Very sharp cutoff of precipitation on the NW flank.

Here is 10:1 snow.


Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 09:49 AM

QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 10 2018, 09:45 AM) *
Bust for all but Niagara on this side of the border in S. ONTARIO. I can see this theme developing as we have said many times. Was too good to be true.

Montreal looks like a major hit though.


I wouldn't call bust yet. The track was actually a bit NW...just less precipitation.
If Kuchera ratios are to be believed, it puts down 10-12cm for GTA.
30-40cm Hamilton and 40-50cm Niagara.

Personally I'd rather have it slight SE of us at this range, than NW. If the storm gains strength on future runs it'll pull it NW. We're still 2.5 days out. A shift of 50 miles NW on this run puts us all in the bullseye. As long as we're in the game, it's worth watching.


Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 09:54 AM

If we keep the mid-level low west of the apps in Central PA, it's great news for us.... Gonna have lots to watch later today

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/951102150318444545

Posted by: plowguy Jan 10 2018, 10:01 AM

My snow sense is telling me this will not be "The Beast". But I'm wrong...a lot!!!!

Posted by: puttin Jan 10 2018, 10:09 AM

QUOTE(plowguy @ Jan 10 2018, 10:01 AM) *
My snow sense is telling me this will not be "The Beast". But I'm wrong...a lot!!!!

Yep, suddenly I feel deflated... but it ain't over until the fat lady sings, so to speak.

Posted by: plowguy Jan 10 2018, 10:09 AM

QUOTE(puttin @ Jan 10 2018, 10:09 AM) *
Yep, suddenly I feel deflated... but it ain't over until the fat lady sings, so to speak.

For sure! I hope it's a good tune though laugh.gif

Posted by: BIG Snowstorms Jan 10 2018, 10:18 AM

I think once the storm is sampled, it will be more NW than predicted. I have nothing to backup what I just said, but just a feeling:)

Posted by: plowguy Jan 10 2018, 10:23 AM

QUOTE(BIG Snowstorms @ Jan 10 2018, 10:18 AM) *
I think once the storm is sampled, it will be more NW than predicted. I have nothing to backup what I just said, but just a feeling:)
Storm, no storm, either is good. Storm is good for revenue and Fri night into Sta am is the perfect time. Anything over 8 inches will bugger up the day for most on Sat. though

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 10:35 AM

Just as an example of the ride we're in for, new SREF is NW
And 3k NAM is further west and a stronger low than the 12k NAM was.... lots of changes to come

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 10 2018, 10:42 AM

12z GFS looking good. I think itís going to be a big run.

Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 10 2018, 10:46 AM

QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 10 2018, 10:42 AM) *
12z GFS looking good. I think itís going to be a big run.

Ending up a bit east actually. No problem though. I fully expect a NW trend later.

Posted by: NortheastWind Jan 10 2018, 10:53 AM

QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 10 2018, 09:49 AM) *
I wouldn't call bust yet. The track was actually a bit NW...just less precipitation.
If Kuchera ratios are to be believed, it puts down 10-12cm for GTA.
30-40cm Hamilton and 40-50cm Niagara.

Personally I'd rather have it slight SE of us at this range, than NW. If the storm gains strength on future runs it'll pull it NW. We're still 2.5 days out. A shift of 50 miles NW on this run puts us all in the bullseye. As long as we're in the game, it's worth watching.


Yes we are still "2.5 days out". Personally I am done with the run to run model chasing. I will check back tomorrow and look forward to everyone's analysis.

Everyone have fun smile.gif

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 10:54 AM

back and forth with the GFS...wow

00z was east, 06z was west, now 12z is east




Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 10:55 AM

almost identical track to the 12z NAM




Posted by: Lake effect Jan 10 2018, 10:56 AM

I'm starting to rule Barrie out of this except for a few inches off the back of the sloppy mess. Would need a massive NW jolt to bring us into the picture now.

Posted by: plowguy Jan 10 2018, 11:07 AM

Brantford is very close to the line between lots and little.

Posted by: players1 Jan 10 2018, 11:07 AM

Fort Erie/ Buffalo hasn't really moved from the bulls eye.
I hope it stays all snow and the ice is further south.
living in rural areas i might be shut in for a while.

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 11:39 AM

New 12z CMC further SE




Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 11:39 AM

Buffalo/Ft Erie solidly in the bullseye so far today....because they don't get enough snow.... rolleyes.gif

Posted by: BIG Snowstorms Jan 10 2018, 11:42 AM

But donít we want the system to be east this far out? Does the system usually trend NW after it is fully sampled?

Posted by: players1 Jan 10 2018, 11:45 AM

QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 10 2018, 11:39 AM) *
Buffalo/Ft Erie solidly in the bullseye so far today....because they don't get enough snow.... rolleyes.gif



You'd be surprised with the lack of snow this year in and around Fort Erie and Buffalo.

most of the larger snow events (LES) have been in the south towns of Buffalo. There have been very few SW wind events this year to move the snow north. I've only used my snowblower once.


Posted by: Ottawa blizzard Jan 10 2018, 11:49 AM

The 12z Canadian looks decent...maybe 10 cm for Toronto.

In terms of epic snowfall, though, stick a fork in this one. The trend is clear. It's over.

Honestly, isn't this Toronto for you? Whether it be the Raptors, Blue Jays, Maple Leafs, or snowstorms, you're always teased and led on to believe that something big is going to happen, only for those hopes to evaporate.

2-5 cm for Toronto is my call.

Posted by: Khaled Jan 10 2018, 11:51 AM

QUOTE(Ottawa blizzard @ Jan 10 2018, 11:49 AM) *
The 12z Canadian looks decent...maybe 10 cm for Toronto.

In terms of epic snowfall, though, stick a fork in this one. The trend is clear. It's over.

Honestly, isn't this Toronto for you? Whether it be the Raptors, Blue Jays, Maple Leafs, or snowstorms, you're always teased and led on to believe that something big is going to happen, only for those hopes to evaporate.

2-5 cm for Toronto is my call.


At least the TFC did something different this year lol.

I would go with 10cm for tornoto.

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 12:01 PM

NAM 3k at 7pm Friday....




Posted by: SNOWBOB11 Jan 10 2018, 12:01 PM

Some of these comments are ridiculous. No modal consensus yet with still many runs before the details are ironed out and your here calling it a bust and trying to give expected totals already? The trend SE is by no means a surprise at this stage. The 12z euro could easily be SE as well. Good chance things start trending back NW by the 00z runs.

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 12:05 PM

QUOTE(players1 @ Jan 10 2018, 11:45 AM) *
You'd be surprised with the lack of snow this year in and around Fort Erie and Buffalo.

most of the larger snow events (LES) have been in the south towns of Buffalo. There have been very few SW wind events this year to move the snow north. I've only used my snowblower once.

actually that's true....mostly S of the city I've noticed that.

Posted by: puttin Jan 10 2018, 12:05 PM

QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 10 2018, 12:01 PM) *
Some of these comments are ridiculous. No modal consensus yet with still many runs before the details are ironed out and your here calling it a bust and trying to give expected totals already? The trend SE is by no means a surprise at this stage. The 12z euro could easily be SE as well. Good chance things start trending back NW by the 00z runs.


Thanks, you've given me some hope. I was dreaming about being snowed in half way up the back door, roads closed... a romp in the backyard for the dog up to his neck... I'm not going to throw in the towel, Bob's right. It ain't over... keep the faith until you know! Too early to say it's done, it's only Wednesday! And if it's not mean to be, well it was a nice ride.

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 12:12 PM

Tonight's 00z runs will matter....and tomorrow's 12z should clear up the mess.

Posted by: puttin Jan 10 2018, 12:27 PM

QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 10 2018, 12:12 PM) *
Tonight's 00z runs will matter....and tomorrow's 12z should clear up the mess.


So is that midnight and noon tomorrow for the time frame? I'm assuming 00z is midnight....

Posted by: GreatWhiteTornado Jan 10 2018, 12:31 PM

I think it is fair to say that this is so close and the line between getting nil and a good snowfall is very close. This isn't confirmed probably until now casting timing Friday.
50 to 100 km means so much.

Posted by: gurtej101 Jan 10 2018, 12:36 PM

Hmm this looks like I'm in a pretty good situation here in st Catharines as of right now

Posted by: PGM Jan 10 2018, 12:45 PM

OTW's new page posted a "forecast" yesterday showing much of Southern Ontario getting 18-30" snow. I wonder if they'll have a tough time 'splaining this one, or will it be forgotten like their other posts.... laugh.gif rolleyes.gif blink.gif

Posted by: PGM Jan 10 2018, 12:48 PM

These past 36 hours, man
(EDIT: click to view GIF)


Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 01:18 PM

QUOTE(puttin @ Jan 10 2018, 12:27 PM) *
So is that midnight and noon tomorrow for the time frame? I'm assuming 00z is midnight....


correct.

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 10 2018, 01:19 PM

QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 10 2018, 01:18 PM) *
correct.

Midnight GMT, but the runs appear here about 4 hours later.


Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 01:22 PM

we need that upper low to close off down in Texas and the trough to tilt negative. IF it stays open as a wave, we'll end up with this weaker, flatter, eastern solution.

Posted by: knorthern_knight Jan 10 2018, 01:22 PM

I've posted London, Waterloo, and Toronto in the "mostly rainfall event" thread. 'nuff said sad.gif Hamilton seems to get some lake enhancement, and Ottawa/Montreal/QC also get decent snowfalls...

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z 10JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
    0 01/10 12Z   20     18    0.00       ****   ****    0.0
    3 01/10 15Z   26     23    0.00         26     20    0.0
    6 01/10 18Z   32     32    0.00         32     20    0.0
    9 01/10 21Z   33     33    0.05 -RA     34     32    0.0  0.05
   12 01/11 00Z   36     36    0.04 -RA     36     32    0.0  0.09
   15 01/11 03Z   38     38    0.02 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.11
   18 01/11 06Z   38     38    0.02 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.13
   21 01/11 09Z   39     38    0.04 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.17
   24 01/11 12Z   39     38    0.02 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.19
   27 01/11 15Z   39     38    0.02 -RA     39     39    0.0  0.21
   30 01/11 18Z   41     39    0.01 -RA     41     39    0.0  0.22
   33 01/11 21Z   43     41    0.00 -RA     43     41    0.0
   36 01/12 00Z   44     42    0.00         44     41    0.0
   39 01/12 03Z   45     43    0.00         45     43    0.0
   42 01/12 06Z   45     44    0.04 -RA     46     43    0.0  0.04
   45 01/12 09Z   45     44    0.02 -RA     46     45    0.0  0.06
   48 01/12 12Z   40     39    0.05 -RA     46     40    0.0  0.11
   51 01/12 15Z   33     29    0.10 -RA     40     33    0.0  0.21
   54 01/12 18Z   28     25    0.20 -SN     40     28    1.8  0.41    1.8
   57 01/12 21Z   21     20    0.13 -SN     28     21    1.8  0.54    3.6
   60 01/13 00Z   18     15    0.07 -SN     28     18    1.2  0.61    4.8
   63 01/13 03Z   16     12    0.07 -SN     18     16    1.1  0.68    5.9
   66 01/13 06Z   13     10    0.13 -SN     18     13    2.4  0.81    8.3
   69 01/13 09Z   11      7    0.08 -SN     13     11    1.5  0.89    9.8
   72 01/13 12Z   10      3    0.00 -SN     13     10    0.0
   75 01/13 15Z   10      3    0.00         10      9    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z 10JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
    0 01/10 12Z   10      8    0.00       ****   ****    0.0
    3 01/10 15Z   18     16    0.00         18     10    0.0
    6 01/10 18Z   27     24    0.00         27     10    0.0
    9 01/10 21Z   27     25    0.00         28     27    0.0
   12 01/11 00Z   28     26    0.01         29     25    0.0  0.01
   15 01/11 03Z   34     33    0.03 -RA     34     28    0.0  0.04
   18 01/11 06Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     28    0.0  0.05
   21 01/11 09Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     35    0.0  0.06
   24 01/11 12Z   35     35    0.06 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.12
   27 01/11 15Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.13
   30 01/11 18Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.14
   33 01/11 21Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.16
   36 01/12 00Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.18
   39 01/12 03Z   38     38    0.00 -RA     38     37    0.0
   42 01/12 06Z   40     40    0.04 -RA     40     37    0.0  0.04
   45 01/12 09Z   42     42    0.08 -RA     42     40    0.0  0.12
   48 01/12 12Z   41     41    0.04 -RA     42     40    0.0  0.16
   51 01/12 15Z   40     40    0.10 -RA     41     40    0.0  0.26
   54 01/12 18Z   26     22    0.05 -FZRN   41     26    0.0  0.31
   57 01/12 21Z   17     14    0.11 -SN     26     17    1.2  0.42    1.2
   60 01/13 00Z   15     10    0.03 -SN     26     15    0.4  0.45    1.6
   63 01/13 03Z   13      7    0.00         14     13    0.0
   66 01/13 06Z   11      6    0.02         14     11    0.2  0.02    0.2
   69 01/13 09Z    7      6    0.22 SN      11      7    4.1  0.24    4.3
   72 01/13 12Z    6      4    0.13 SN      11      6    2.7  0.37    7.0
   75 01/13 15Z    6      4    0.04 -SN      6      5    0.9  0.41    7.9
   78 01/13 18Z    7      5    0.03 -SN      7      5    0.7  0.44    8.6
   81 01/13 21Z    8      3    0.00          9      8    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
CYUL MontrÔŅĹal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z 10JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
    0 01/10 12Z   10      7    0.00       ****   ****    0.0
    3 01/10 15Z   17     14    0.00         17      9    0.0
    6 01/10 18Z   24     21    0.00         24      9    0.0
    9 01/10 21Z   23     21    0.00         25     23    0.0
   12 01/11 00Z   26     23    0.00         26     22    0.0
   15 01/11 03Z   32     30    0.03 -RA     32     26    0.0  0.03
   18 01/11 06Z   33     33    0.03 -RA     33     26    0.0  0.06
   21 01/11 09Z   35     35    0.02 -RA     35     33    0.0  0.08
   24 01/11 12Z   35     35    0.03 -RA     35     33    0.0  0.11
   27 01/11 15Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.13
   30 01/11 18Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.15
   33 01/11 21Z   37     37    0.07 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.22
   36 01/12 00Z   37     37    0.01 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.23
   39 01/12 03Z   37     37    0.03 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.26
   42 01/12 06Z   40     40    0.22 -RA     40     37    0.0  0.48
   45 01/12 09Z   40     40    0.18 RA      40     39    0.0  0.66
   48 01/12 12Z   39     39    0.17 RA      40     39    0.0  0.83
   51 01/12 15Z   39     39    0.03 -RA     39     39    0.0  0.86
   54 01/12 18Z   40     40    0.06 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.92
   57 01/12 21Z   32     29    0.06 -RA     40     32    0.0  0.98
   60 01/13 00Z   26     23    0.04 -SN     40     26    0.6  1.02    0.6
   63 01/13 03Z   21     17    0.03 -SN     26     21    0.4  1.05    1.0
   66 01/13 06Z   17     15    0.05 -SN     26     17    0.7  1.10    1.7
   69 01/13 09Z   12     11    0.19 SN      16     12    2.8  1.29    4.5
   72 01/13 12Z   10      9    0.21 SN      16     10    3.7  1.50    8.2
   75 01/13 15Z    9      8    0.12 -SN     10      9    2.2  1.62   10.4
   78 01/13 18Z   10      8    0.05 -SN     11      9    1.1  1.67   11.5
   81 01/13 21Z    9      7    0.01 -SN     11      9    0.3  1.68   11.8
   84 01/14 00Z    7      4    0.00 -SN     11      7    0.0
   87 01/14 03Z    6      3    0.00          7      6    0.0
   90 01/14 06Z    5      4    0.01 -SN      7      5    0.2  0.01    0.2
   93 01/14 09Z    2      1    0.00 -SN      4      2    0.0
   96 01/14 12Z   -1     -2    0.00          4     -1    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
CYQB QuÔŅĹbec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z 10JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
    0 01/10 12Z    6      3    0.00       ****   ****    0.0
    3 01/10 15Z   13      8    0.00         13      5    0.0
    6 01/10 18Z   19     13    0.00         19      5    0.0
    9 01/10 21Z   15     13    0.00         20     15    0.0
   12 01/11 00Z   14     11    0.00         20     14    0.0
   15 01/11 03Z   20     17    0.00 -SN     20     15    0.0
   18 01/11 06Z   22     21    0.03 -SN     22     15    0.2  0.03    0.2
   21 01/11 09Z   25     24    0.01 -SN     25     22    0.0  0.04
   24 01/11 12Z   31     31    0.01 -FZRN   31     22    0.0  0.05
   27 01/11 15Z   35     34    0.01 -RA     35     31    0.0  0.06
   30 01/11 18Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     31    0.0  0.07
   33 01/11 21Z   36     35    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.09
   36 01/12 00Z   37     36    0.03 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.12
   39 01/12 03Z   36     35    0.07 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.19
   42 01/12 06Z   37     36    0.07 -RA     38     35    0.0  0.26
   45 01/12 09Z   40     39    0.21 RA      40     37    0.0  0.47
   48 01/12 12Z   41     40    0.20 RA      42     37    0.0  0.67
   51 01/12 15Z   42     41    0.12 -RA     43     41    0.0  0.79
   54 01/12 18Z   43     42    0.06 -RA     43     41    0.0  0.85
   57 01/12 21Z   37     36    0.09 -RA     43     37    0.0  0.94
   60 01/13 00Z   25     19    0.02 -PL     43     25    0.0  0.96
   63 01/13 03Z   20     13    0.00         25     20    0.0
   66 01/13 06Z   19     10    0.00         25     19    0.0
   69 01/13 09Z   15     13    0.09 -SN     19     15    1.4  0.09    1.4
   72 01/13 12Z   13     11    0.22 SN      19     12    3.7  0.31    5.1
   75 01/13 15Z   11     10    0.16 SN      13     11    3.0  0.47    8.1
   78 01/13 18Z   12      9    0.10 -SN     13     11    1.9  0.57   10.0
   81 01/13 21Z   11      8    0.04 -SN     12     11    0.9  0.61   10.9
   84 01/14 00Z    5      3    0.00 -SN     12      5    0.0
   87 01/14 03Z    3      0    0.00          5      3    0.0
   90 01/14 06Z    5      3    0.01          6      3    0.2  0.01    0.2
   93 01/14 09Z    5      4    0.01 -SN      6      5    0.3  0.02    0.5
   96 01/14 12Z    1      0    0.00 -SN      6      1    0.0
   99 01/14 15Z    8      4    0.00          8      0    0.0

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 10 2018, 01:24 PM

QUOTE(Ottawa blizzard @ Jan 10 2018, 11:49 AM) *
The 12z Canadian looks decent...maybe 10 cm for Toronto.

In terms of epic snowfall, though, stick a fork in this one. The trend is clear. It's over.

Honestly, isn't this Toronto for you? Whether it be the Raptors, Blue Jays, Maple Leafs, or snowstorms, you're always teased and led on to believe that something big is going to happen, only for those hopes to evaporate.

2-5 cm for Toronto is my call.


laugh.gif

Love that. Certainly feels a bit like it at this stage. Of course we all feared a change of track, and while we are still 3 days from this event, I think its time to roll out the snowdome theory...mother nature's assistant was working on Sunday-Tuesday, but the boss is back and saw the maps and said "Toronto? 20 inches? Can't have that, move this thing SE where it's supposed to be. Good grief."

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 01:25 PM

12z Euro is flat, weak and east. A non-event for all of us. Maybe a few cm.

Posted by: shane o mac Jan 10 2018, 01:26 PM

Figured it would trend for the worst for most .. always happens .

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 01:27 PM

QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Jan 10 2018, 01:22 PM) *
I've posted London, Waterloo, and Toronto in the "mostly rainfall event" thread. 'nuff said sad.gif Hamilton seems to get some lake enhancement, and Ottawa/Montreal/QC also get decent snowfalls...

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z 10JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
    0 01/10 12Z   20     18    0.00       ****   ****    0.0
    3 01/10 15Z   26     23    0.00         26     20    0.0
    6 01/10 18Z   32     32    0.00         32     20    0.0
    9 01/10 21Z   33     33    0.05 -RA     34     32    0.0  0.05
   12 01/11 00Z   36     36    0.04 -RA     36     32    0.0  0.09
   15 01/11 03Z   38     38    0.02 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.11
   18 01/11 06Z   38     38    0.02 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.13
   21 01/11 09Z   39     38    0.04 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.17
   24 01/11 12Z   39     38    0.02 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.19
   27 01/11 15Z   39     38    0.02 -RA     39     39    0.0  0.21
   30 01/11 18Z   41     39    0.01 -RA     41     39    0.0  0.22
   33 01/11 21Z   43     41    0.00 -RA     43     41    0.0
   36 01/12 00Z   44     42    0.00         44     41    0.0
   39 01/12 03Z   45     43    0.00         45     43    0.0
   42 01/12 06Z   45     44    0.04 -RA     46     43    0.0  0.04
   45 01/12 09Z   45     44    0.02 -RA     46     45    0.0  0.06
   48 01/12 12Z   40     39    0.05 -RA     46     40    0.0  0.11
   51 01/12 15Z   33     29    0.10 -RA     40     33    0.0  0.21
   54 01/12 18Z   28     25    0.20 -SN     40     28    1.8  0.41    1.8
   57 01/12 21Z   21     20    0.13 -SN     28     21    1.8  0.54    3.6
   60 01/13 00Z   18     15    0.07 -SN     28     18    1.2  0.61    4.8
   63 01/13 03Z   16     12    0.07 -SN     18     16    1.1  0.68    5.9
   66 01/13 06Z   13     10    0.13 -SN     18     13    2.4  0.81    8.3
   69 01/13 09Z   11      7    0.08 -SN     13     11    1.5  0.89    9.8
   72 01/13 12Z   10      3    0.00 -SN     13     10    0.0
   75 01/13 15Z   10      3    0.00         10      9    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z 10JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
    0 01/10 12Z   10      8    0.00       ****   ****    0.0
    3 01/10 15Z   18     16    0.00         18     10    0.0
    6 01/10 18Z   27     24    0.00         27     10    0.0
    9 01/10 21Z   27     25    0.00         28     27    0.0
   12 01/11 00Z   28     26    0.01         29     25    0.0  0.01
   15 01/11 03Z   34     33    0.03 -RA     34     28    0.0  0.04
   18 01/11 06Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     28    0.0  0.05
   21 01/11 09Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     35    0.0  0.06
   24 01/11 12Z   35     35    0.06 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.12
   27 01/11 15Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.13
   30 01/11 18Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.14
   33 01/11 21Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.16
   36 01/12 00Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.18
   39 01/12 03Z   38     38    0.00 -RA     38     37    0.0
   42 01/12 06Z   40     40    0.04 -RA     40     37    0.0  0.04
   45 01/12 09Z   42     42    0.08 -RA     42     40    0.0  0.12
   48 01/12 12Z   41     41    0.04 -RA     42     40    0.0  0.16
   51 01/12 15Z   40     40    0.10 -RA     41     40    0.0  0.26
   54 01/12 18Z   26     22    0.05 -FZRN   41     26    0.0  0.31
   57 01/12 21Z   17     14    0.11 -SN     26     17    1.2  0.42    1.2
   60 01/13 00Z   15     10    0.03 -SN     26     15    0.4  0.45    1.6
   63 01/13 03Z   13      7    0.00         14     13    0.0
   66 01/13 06Z   11      6    0.02         14     11    0.2  0.02    0.2
   69 01/13 09Z    7      6    0.22 SN      11      7    4.1  0.24    4.3
   72 01/13 12Z    6      4    0.13 SN      11      6    2.7  0.37    7.0
   75 01/13 15Z    6      4    0.04 -SN      6      5    0.9  0.41    7.9
   78 01/13 18Z    7      5    0.03 -SN      7      5    0.7  0.44    8.6
   81 01/13 21Z    8      3    0.00          9      8    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
CYUL MontrÔŅĹal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z 10JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
    0 01/10 12Z   10      7    0.00       ****   ****    0.0
    3 01/10 15Z   17     14    0.00         17      9    0.0
    6 01/10 18Z   24     21    0.00         24      9    0.0
    9 01/10 21Z   23     21    0.00         25     23    0.0
   12 01/11 00Z   26     23    0.00         26     22    0.0
   15 01/11 03Z   32     30    0.03 -RA     32     26    0.0  0.03
   18 01/11 06Z   33     33    0.03 -RA     33     26    0.0  0.06
   21 01/11 09Z   35     35    0.02 -RA     35     33    0.0  0.08
   24 01/11 12Z   35     35    0.03 -RA     35     33    0.0  0.11
   27 01/11 15Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.13
   30 01/11 18Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.15
   33 01/11 21Z   37     37    0.07 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.22
   36 01/12 00Z   37     37    0.01 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.23
   39 01/12 03Z   37     37    0.03 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.26
   42 01/12 06Z   40     40    0.22 -RA     40     37    0.0  0.48
   45 01/12 09Z   40     40    0.18 RA      40     39    0.0  0.66
   48 01/12 12Z   39     39    0.17 RA      40     39    0.0  0.83
   51 01/12 15Z   39     39    0.03 -RA     39     39    0.0  0.86
   54 01/12 18Z   40     40    0.06 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.92
   57 01/12 21Z   32     29    0.06 -RA     40     32    0.0  0.98
   60 01/13 00Z   26     23    0.04 -SN     40     26    0.6  1.02    0.6
   63 01/13 03Z   21     17    0.03 -SN     26     21    0.4  1.05    1.0
   66 01/13 06Z   17     15    0.05 -SN     26     17    0.7  1.10    1.7
   69 01/13 09Z   12     11    0.19 SN      16     12    2.8  1.29    4.5
   72 01/13 12Z   10      9    0.21 SN      16     10    3.7  1.50    8.2
   75 01/13 15Z    9      8    0.12 -SN     10      9    2.2  1.62   10.4
   78 01/13 18Z   10      8    0.05 -SN     11      9    1.1  1.67   11.5
   81 01/13 21Z    9      7    0.01 -SN     11      9    0.3  1.68   11.8
   84 01/14 00Z    7      4    0.00 -SN     11      7    0.0
   87 01/14 03Z    6      3    0.00          7      6    0.0
   90 01/14 06Z    5      4    0.01 -SN      7      5    0.2  0.01    0.2
   93 01/14 09Z    2      1    0.00 -SN      4      2    0.0
   96 01/14 12Z   -1     -2    0.00          4     -1    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
CYQB QuÔŅĹbec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z 10JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
    0 01/10 12Z    6      3    0.00       ****   ****    0.0
    3 01/10 15Z   13      8    0.00         13      5    0.0
    6 01/10 18Z   19     13    0.00         19      5    0.0
    9 01/10 21Z   15     13    0.00         20     15    0.0
   12 01/11 00Z   14     11    0.00         20     14    0.0
   15 01/11 03Z   20     17    0.00 -SN     20     15    0.0
   18 01/11 06Z   22     21    0.03 -SN     22     15    0.2  0.03    0.2
   21 01/11 09Z   25     24    0.01 -SN     25     22    0.0  0.04
   24 01/11 12Z   31     31    0.01 -FZRN   31     22    0.0  0.05
   27 01/11 15Z   35     34    0.01 -RA     35     31    0.0  0.06
   30 01/11 18Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     31    0.0  0.07
   33 01/11 21Z   36     35    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.09
   36 01/12 00Z   37     36    0.03 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.12
   39 01/12 03Z   36     35    0.07 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.19
   42 01/12 06Z   37     36    0.07 -RA     38     35    0.0  0.26
   45 01/12 09Z   40     39    0.21 RA      40     37    0.0  0.47
   48 01/12 12Z   41     40    0.20 RA      42     37    0.0  0.67
   51 01/12 15Z   42     41    0.12 -RA     43     41    0.0  0.79
   54 01/12 18Z   43     42    0.06 -RA     43     41    0.0  0.85
   57 01/12 21Z   37     36    0.09 -RA     43     37    0.0  0.94
   60 01/13 00Z   25     19    0.02 -PL     43     25    0.0  0.96
   63 01/13 03Z   20     13    0.00         25     20    0.0
   66 01/13 06Z   19     10    0.00         25     19    0.0
   69 01/13 09Z   15     13    0.09 -SN     19     15    1.4  0.09    1.4
   72 01/13 12Z   13     11    0.22 SN      19     12    3.7  0.31    5.1
   75 01/13 15Z   11     10    0.16 SN      13     11    3.0  0.47    8.1
   78 01/13 18Z   12      9    0.10 -SN     13     11    1.9  0.57   10.0
   81 01/13 21Z   11      8    0.04 -SN     12     11    0.9  0.61   10.9
   84 01/14 00Z    5      3    0.00 -SN     12      5    0.0
   87 01/14 03Z    3      0    0.00          5      3    0.0
   90 01/14 06Z    5      3    0.01          6      3    0.2  0.01    0.2
   93 01/14 09Z    5      4    0.01 -SN      6      5    0.3  0.02    0.5
   96 01/14 12Z    1      0    0.00 -SN      6      1    0.0
   99 01/14 15Z    8      4    0.00          8      0    0.0



25cm for Hamilton...not sure I buy it looking at the 850, 925 and surface winds....would be nice though, but I've got low hope for this solution.

Posted by: puttin Jan 10 2018, 01:28 PM

QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 10 2018, 01:18 PM) *
correct.

Gracias.... so you know now that I know, I won't be able to sleep and will get up to check the stupid IPAD to see whats happening, lol.... not that I understand it anyways. I can figure out the GFS, I like that one. Lets go with that. Right now there is still blue over me. lol.

Posted by: markj138 Jan 10 2018, 01:30 PM

We`ll we where on top of the world here in the GTA & now we have hit rock bottom,pieces to this storm still need to be sampled,lets see what happens over the next couple of days.

Posted by: MrMusic Jan 10 2018, 01:40 PM

Anthony Farnell

https://twitter.com/AnthonyFarnell/status/951157248960512002

Posted by: plowguy Jan 10 2018, 01:44 PM

QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 10 2018, 01:40 PM) *
Anthony Farnell

https://twitter.com/AnthonyFarnell/status/951157248960512002

Seems odd that he is saying it's done? It could come back just as it has gone away...can't it?

Posted by: Stl Jan 10 2018, 01:52 PM

QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Jan 10 2018, 01:22 PM) *
I've posted London, Waterloo, and Toronto in the "mostly rainfall event" thread. 'nuff said sad.gif Hamilton seems to get some lake enhancement, and Ottawa/Montreal/QC also get decent snowfalls...

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z 10JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
    0 01/10 12Z   20     18    0.00       ****   ****    0.0
    3 01/10 15Z   26     23    0.00         26     20    0.0
    6 01/10 18Z   32     32    0.00         32     20    0.0
    9 01/10 21Z   33     33    0.05 -RA     34     32    0.0  0.05
   12 01/11 00Z   36     36    0.04 -RA     36     32    0.0  0.09
   15 01/11 03Z   38     38    0.02 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.11
   18 01/11 06Z   38     38    0.02 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.13
   21 01/11 09Z   39     38    0.04 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.17
   24 01/11 12Z   39     38    0.02 -RA     39     38    0.0  0.19
   27 01/11 15Z   39     38    0.02 -RA     39     39    0.0  0.21
   30 01/11 18Z   41     39    0.01 -RA     41     39    0.0  0.22
   33 01/11 21Z   43     41    0.00 -RA     43     41    0.0
   36 01/12 00Z   44     42    0.00         44     41    0.0
   39 01/12 03Z   45     43    0.00         45     43    0.0
   42 01/12 06Z   45     44    0.04 -RA     46     43    0.0  0.04
   45 01/12 09Z   45     44    0.02 -RA     46     45    0.0  0.06
   48 01/12 12Z   40     39    0.05 -RA     46     40    0.0  0.11
   51 01/12 15Z   33     29    0.10 -RA     40     33    0.0  0.21
   54 01/12 18Z   28     25    0.20 -SN     40     28    1.8  0.41    1.8
   57 01/12 21Z   21     20    0.13 -SN     28     21    1.8  0.54    3.6
   60 01/13 00Z   18     15    0.07 -SN     28     18    1.2  0.61    4.8
   63 01/13 03Z   16     12    0.07 -SN     18     16    1.1  0.68    5.9
   66 01/13 06Z   13     10    0.13 -SN     18     13    2.4  0.81    8.3
   69 01/13 09Z   11      7    0.08 -SN     13     11    1.5  0.89    9.8
   72 01/13 12Z   10      3    0.00 -SN     13     10    0.0
   75 01/13 15Z   10      3    0.00         10      9    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z 10JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
    0 01/10 12Z   10      8    0.00       ****   ****    0.0
    3 01/10 15Z   18     16    0.00         18     10    0.0
    6 01/10 18Z   27     24    0.00         27     10    0.0
    9 01/10 21Z   27     25    0.00         28     27    0.0
   12 01/11 00Z   28     26    0.01         29     25    0.0  0.01
   15 01/11 03Z   34     33    0.03 -RA     34     28    0.0  0.04
   18 01/11 06Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     28    0.0  0.05
   21 01/11 09Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     35    0.0  0.06
   24 01/11 12Z   35     35    0.06 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.12
   27 01/11 15Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.13
   30 01/11 18Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.14
   33 01/11 21Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.16
   36 01/12 00Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.18
   39 01/12 03Z   38     38    0.00 -RA     38     37    0.0
   42 01/12 06Z   40     40    0.04 -RA     40     37    0.0  0.04
   45 01/12 09Z   42     42    0.08 -RA     42     40    0.0  0.12
   48 01/12 12Z   41     41    0.04 -RA     42     40    0.0  0.16
   51 01/12 15Z   40     40    0.10 -RA     41     40    0.0  0.26
   54 01/12 18Z   26     22    0.05 -FZRN   41     26    0.0  0.31
   57 01/12 21Z   17     14    0.11 -SN     26     17    1.2  0.42    1.2
   60 01/13 00Z   15     10    0.03 -SN     26     15    0.4  0.45    1.6
   63 01/13 03Z   13      7    0.00         14     13    0.0
   66 01/13 06Z   11      6    0.02         14     11    0.2  0.02    0.2
   69 01/13 09Z    7      6    0.22 SN      11      7    4.1  0.24    4.3
   72 01/13 12Z    6      4    0.13 SN      11      6    2.7  0.37    7.0
   75 01/13 15Z    6      4    0.04 -SN      6      5    0.9  0.41    7.9
   78 01/13 18Z    7      5    0.03 -SN      7      5    0.7  0.44    8.6
   81 01/13 21Z    8      3    0.00          9      8    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
CYUL MontrÔŅĹal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z 10JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
    0 01/10 12Z   10      7    0.00       ****   ****    0.0
    3 01/10 15Z   17     14    0.00         17      9    0.0
    6 01/10 18Z   24     21    0.00         24      9    0.0
    9 01/10 21Z   23     21    0.00         25     23    0.0
   12 01/11 00Z   26     23    0.00         26     22    0.0
   15 01/11 03Z   32     30    0.03 -RA     32     26    0.0  0.03
   18 01/11 06Z   33     33    0.03 -RA     33     26    0.0  0.06
   21 01/11 09Z   35     35    0.02 -RA     35     33    0.0  0.08
   24 01/11 12Z   35     35    0.03 -RA     35     33    0.0  0.11
   27 01/11 15Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.13
   30 01/11 18Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.15
   33 01/11 21Z   37     37    0.07 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.22
   36 01/12 00Z   37     37    0.01 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.23
   39 01/12 03Z   37     37    0.03 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.26
   42 01/12 06Z   40     40    0.22 -RA     40     37    0.0  0.48
   45 01/12 09Z   40     40    0.18 RA      40     39    0.0  0.66
   48 01/12 12Z   39     39    0.17 RA      40     39    0.0  0.83
   51 01/12 15Z   39     39    0.03 -RA     39     39    0.0  0.86
   54 01/12 18Z   40     40    0.06 -RA     40     39    0.0  0.92
   57 01/12 21Z   32     29    0.06 -RA     40     32    0.0  0.98
   60 01/13 00Z   26     23    0.04 -SN     40     26    0.6  1.02    0.6
   63 01/13 03Z   21     17    0.03 -SN     26     21    0.4  1.05    1.0
   66 01/13 06Z   17     15    0.05 -SN     26     17    0.7  1.10    1.7
   69 01/13 09Z   12     11    0.19 SN      16     12    2.8  1.29    4.5
   72 01/13 12Z   10      9    0.21 SN      16     10    3.7  1.50    8.2
   75 01/13 15Z    9      8    0.12 -SN     10      9    2.2  1.62   10.4
   78 01/13 18Z   10      8    0.05 -SN     11      9    1.1  1.67   11.5
   81 01/13 21Z    9      7    0.01 -SN     11      9    0.3  1.68   11.8
   84 01/14 00Z    7      4    0.00 -SN     11      7    0.0
   87 01/14 03Z    6      3    0.00          7      6    0.0
   90 01/14 06Z    5      4    0.01 -SN      7      5    0.2  0.01    0.2
   93 01/14 09Z    2      1    0.00 -SN      4      2    0.0
   96 01/14 12Z   -1     -2    0.00          4     -1    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
CYQB QuÔŅĹbec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z 10JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
    0 01/10 12Z    6      3    0.00       ****   ****    0.0
    3 01/10 15Z   13      8    0.00         13      5    0.0
    6 01/10 18Z   19     13    0.00         19      5    0.0
    9 01/10 21Z   15     13    0.00         20     15    0.0
   12 01/11 00Z   14     11    0.00         20     14    0.0
   15 01/11 03Z   20     17    0.00 -SN     20     15    0.0
   18 01/11 06Z   22     21    0.03 -SN     22     15    0.2  0.03    0.2
   21 01/11 09Z   25     24    0.01 -SN     25     22    0.0  0.04
   24 01/11 12Z   31     31    0.01 -FZRN   31     22    0.0  0.05
   27 01/11 15Z   35     34    0.01 -RA     35     31    0.0  0.06
   30 01/11 18Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     31    0.0  0.07
   33 01/11 21Z   36     35    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.09
   36 01/12 00Z   37     36    0.03 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.12
   39 01/12 03Z   36     35    0.07 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.19
   42 01/12 06Z   37     36    0.07 -RA     38     35    0.0  0.26
   45 01/12 09Z   40     39    0.21 RA      40     37    0.0  0.47
   48 01/12 12Z   41     40    0.20 RA      42     37    0.0  0.67
   51 01/12 15Z   42     41    0.12 -RA     43     41    0.0  0.79
   54 01/12 18Z   43     42    0.06 -RA     43     41    0.0  0.85
   57 01/12 21Z   37     36    0.09 -RA     43     37    0.0  0.94
   60 01/13 00Z   25     19    0.02 -PL     43     25    0.0  0.96
   63 01/13 03Z   20     13    0.00         25     20    0.0
   66 01/13 06Z   19     10    0.00         25     19    0.0
   69 01/13 09Z   15     13    0.09 -SN     19     15    1.4  0.09    1.4
   72 01/13 12Z   13     11    0.22 SN      19     12    3.7  0.31    5.1
   75 01/13 15Z   11     10    0.16 SN      13     11    3.0  0.47    8.1
   78 01/13 18Z   12      9    0.10 -SN     13     11    1.9  0.57   10.0
   81 01/13 21Z   11      8    0.04 -SN     12     11    0.9  0.61   10.9
   84 01/14 00Z    5      3    0.00 -SN     12      5    0.0
   87 01/14 03Z    3      0    0.00          5      3    0.0
   90 01/14 06Z    5      3    0.01          6      3    0.2  0.01    0.2
   93 01/14 09Z    5      4    0.01 -SN      6      5    0.3  0.02    0.5
   96 01/14 12Z    1      0    0.00 -SN      6      1    0.0
   99 01/14 15Z    8      4    0.00          8      0    0.0


Not bad for here , it's either we are close to the system and mixing is an issue or we are further and get less accumulation , in both case we seem to get the same amount of snow though.

If the system can have a larger swath of heavy snow precipitation like it did previously i think we should be getting 15 cm+ for everyone here.


Posted by: BIG Snowstorms Jan 10 2018, 02:17 PM

I see a lot of people writing this storm off, including Anthony Farnell. Isnít 2 days out still too long to tell? Canít this turn NW? What am I missing here?

Posted by: Ottawa blizzard Jan 10 2018, 02:17 PM

I like and Anthony Farnell but he's just as capable of jumping on and off bandwagons and model hugging as many of us. A week before Christmas he was calling for a green Christmas.

Posted by: Stl Jan 10 2018, 02:20 PM

I don't want to discredited anyone but you have decent people here for forecasting so sometime these weather met on TV eventhough their knowledge can be wrong.

Im not saying Anthony Farnell is wrong right now but im just saying be patient.

Posted by: Lake effect Jan 10 2018, 02:30 PM

I agree its too early to 100% write it off, but the trend is not our friend. I know sampling might change things, but how often is it that we end up on the right side of this type of scenario? That's not doomcasting or peevishness, it's experience. Upstate NY, Vermont and Maine often cash in as the systems get pushed East. It is what it is.

Posted by: JFK Jan 10 2018, 02:38 PM






Still looking like a storm for Montreal.. Euro is the only one throw us a cocktail of stuff.. But even it has YUL getting a chunk of snow.

J

Posted by: Stl Jan 10 2018, 02:42 PM

QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 10 2018, 02:30 PM) *
I agree its too early to 100% write it off, but the trend is not our friend. I know sampling might change things, but how often is it that we end up on the right side of this type of scenario? That's not doomcasting or peevishness, it's experience. Upstate NY, Vermont and Maine often cash in as the systems get pushed East. It is what it is.


It's true experience doesn't lie and me too i know that these scenario even for us are not the best but when it does we get a hefty amount of snow.

It just that for a few runs that it's East we call it over especially at this range. Let's just say that the chances are dimishing but not vanished yet.


I think the frustration is mainly because of this rain with the warm temperatures or else nobody would be dissappointed if it missed us due to the cold weather.


Did you see the GFS at the end of the run , it has a similar storm around the 23rd. rolleyes.gif

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