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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
Fire/Rescue
post Yesterday, 11:03 AM
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QUOTE(RickRD @ Jan 18 2018, 10:37 PM) *
Yes, Just reviewed the weeklies. Looks very cold and snowy after 1st week of February. Lets see how it pans out.

Bring it on, all of it smile.gif
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grace
post Yesterday, 02:17 PM
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Looking at the "thaw" for next 2 weeks. Sure looks up & down. Periods of -10 below normal temps. It is a "thaw" but more of a typical winter pattern.

More in line with BSR, RRWT, than the continuous above normal temps that was forecasted. Still watching EAR indication of cold earlier than forecasted.
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RobB
post Yesterday, 02:57 PM
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1/19 12Z NAEFS:
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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 03:21 PM
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Euro12z says for here.. No snow next 10 days at least. 2 rain chances. Up & Down temps

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DXR    LAT=  41.37 LON=  -73.48 ELE=   456

                                            12Z JAN19
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
FRI 12Z 19-JAN  -7.4    -0.7    1018      73      43    0.00     550     536    
FRI 18Z 19-JAN   0.9    -0.8    1015      49      29    0.00     552     540    
SAT 00Z 20-JAN  -1.5     1.5    1015      66      23    0.00     557     545    
SAT 06Z 20-JAN  -1.9     5.3    1013      70      44    0.00     559     549    
SAT 12Z 20-JAN  -1.2     8.8    1011      72      28    0.00     561     553    
SAT 18Z 20-JAN   6.9     7.2    1009      47      27    0.00     561     554    
SUN 00Z 21-JAN   3.0     6.7    1014      68      41    0.00     563     551    
SUN 06Z 21-JAN  -0.5     6.1    1017      87      45    0.00     563     550    
SUN 12Z 21-JAN  -2.6     2.5    1020      90      40    0.00     564     548    
SUN 18Z 21-JAN   6.4     0.3    1018      56      16    0.00     564     549    
MON 00Z 22-JAN   1.0    -0.2    1020      83      23    0.00     566     550    
MON 06Z 22-JAN   0.9     0.9    1020      87      27    0.01     566     550    
MON 12Z 22-JAN   1.2     1.8    1021      91      28    0.04     566     549    
MON 18Z 22-JAN   5.6     3.0    1021      80      52    0.00     566     549    
TUE 00Z 23-JAN   2.6     4.0    1022      98      94    0.04     565     547    
TUE 06Z 23-JAN   2.5     4.3    1019      97      96    0.02     561     546    
TUE 12Z 23-JAN   5.0     5.8    1012      99      95    0.06     560     550    
TUE 18Z 23-JAN  10.1     8.4    1001      99      87    0.57     553     552    
WED 00Z 24-JAN   6.0     1.4    1001      91      96    0.16     541     540    
WED 06Z 24-JAN   1.6    -4.5    1004      76      52    0.00     533     530    
WED 12Z 24-JAN  -0.2    -6.0    1008      80      44    0.00     539     533    
WED 18Z 24-JAN   3.2    -8.9    1009      51      50    0.00     539     532    
THU 00Z 25-JAN  -0.7   -10.5    1014      58      13    0.00     541     530    
THU 06Z 25-JAN  -2.7   -11.7    1017      61      14    0.00     535     522    
THU 12Z 25-JAN  -3.1   -12.4    1020      60      61    0.00     533     517    
THU 18Z 25-JAN   0.1   -12.9    1023      39      62    0.00     536     518    
FRI 00Z 26-JAN  -3.2    -9.4    1029      54      24    0.00     544     522    
FRI 06Z 26-JAN  -6.0    -8.3    1032      66      18    0.00     550     526    
FRI 12Z 26-JAN  -6.5    -5.3    1034      68      87    0.00     556     530    
FRI 18Z 26-JAN   3.4    -3.2    1032      40      40    0.00     561     535    
SAT 00Z 27-JAN  -1.8     0.6    1033      78      47    0.00     567     541    
SAT 06Z 27-JAN  -1.7     2.4    1031      90      32    0.00     569     544    
SAT 12Z 27-JAN  -1.7     5.8    1031      87      14    0.00     569     545    
SAT 18Z 27-JAN   7.4     4.9    1029      72      67    0.00     571     548    
SUN 00Z 28-JAN   6.8     3.3    1027      86      45    0.00     572     551    
SUN 06Z 28-JAN   6.7     3.8    1024      98      98    0.02     570     550    
SUN 12Z 28-JAN   8.9     6.2    1021      99      98    0.02     570     553    
SUN 18Z 28-JAN  10.9     8.3    1016      99      99    0.14     570     557    
MON 00Z 29-JAN  11.0     8.9    1012      99      93    0.41     569     559    
MON 06Z 29-JAN  10.9    11.0    1009     100      93    0.08     567     560    
MON 12Z 29-JAN  10.7     8.6    1010     100      82    0.03     565     557
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RobB
post Yesterday, 03:46 PM
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1/19 12Z Euro EPS daily 850 and 2 meter temp anomaly loop (may need to click to loop):

This post has been edited by RobB: Yesterday, 03:47 PM
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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 03:51 PM
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Cool read.

http://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Art...-winter-storms/

Attached File  Screenshot_20180119_155048.png ( 1.02MB ) Number of downloads: 0
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RobB
post Yesterday, 03:55 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 19 2018, 03:51 PM) *


Thanks for the link. It was a nice read.
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adurb44
post Yesterday, 04:17 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 19 2018, 03:21 PM) *
Euro12z says for here.. No snow next 10 days at least. 2 rain chances. Up & Down temps

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DXR    LAT=  41.37 LON=  -73.48 ELE=   456

                                            12Z JAN19
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
FRI 12Z 19-JAN  -7.4    -0.7    1018      73      43    0.00     550     536    
FRI 18Z 19-JAN   0.9    -0.8    1015      49      29    0.00     552     540    
SAT 00Z 20-JAN  -1.5     1.5    1015      66      23    0.00     557     545    
SAT 06Z 20-JAN  -1.9     5.3    1013      70      44    0.00     559     549    
SAT 12Z 20-JAN  -1.2     8.8    1011      72      28    0.00     561     553    
SAT 18Z 20-JAN   6.9     7.2    1009      47      27    0.00     561     554    
SUN 00Z 21-JAN   3.0     6.7    1014      68      41    0.00     563     551    
SUN 06Z 21-JAN  -0.5     6.1    1017      87      45    0.00     563     550    
SUN 12Z 21-JAN  -2.6     2.5    1020      90      40    0.00     564     548    
SUN 18Z 21-JAN   6.4     0.3    1018      56      16    0.00     564     549    
MON 00Z 22-JAN   1.0    -0.2    1020      83      23    0.00     566     550    
MON 06Z 22-JAN   0.9     0.9    1020      87      27    0.01     566     550    
MON 12Z 22-JAN   1.2     1.8    1021      91      28    0.04     566     549    
MON 18Z 22-JAN   5.6     3.0    1021      80      52    0.00     566     549    
TUE 00Z 23-JAN   2.6     4.0    1022      98      94    0.04     565     547    
TUE 06Z 23-JAN   2.5     4.3    1019      97      96    0.02     561     546    
TUE 12Z 23-JAN   5.0     5.8    1012      99      95    0.06     560     550    
TUE 18Z 23-JAN  10.1     8.4    1001      99      87    0.57     553     552    
WED 00Z 24-JAN   6.0     1.4    1001      91      96    0.16     541     540    
WED 06Z 24-JAN   1.6    -4.5    1004      76      52    0.00     533     530    
WED 12Z 24-JAN  -0.2    -6.0    1008      80      44    0.00     539     533    
WED 18Z 24-JAN   3.2    -8.9    1009      51      50    0.00     539     532    
THU 00Z 25-JAN  -0.7   -10.5    1014      58      13    0.00     541     530    
THU 06Z 25-JAN  -2.7   -11.7    1017      61      14    0.00     535     522    
THU 12Z 25-JAN  -3.1   -12.4    1020      60      61    0.00     533     517    
THU 18Z 25-JAN   0.1   -12.9    1023      39      62    0.00     536     518    
FRI 00Z 26-JAN  -3.2    -9.4    1029      54      24    0.00     544     522    
FRI 06Z 26-JAN  -6.0    -8.3    1032      66      18    0.00     550     526    
FRI 12Z 26-JAN  -6.5    -5.3    1034      68      87    0.00     556     530    
FRI 18Z 26-JAN   3.4    -3.2    1032      40      40    0.00     561     535    
SAT 00Z 27-JAN  -1.8     0.6    1033      78      47    0.00     567     541    
SAT 06Z 27-JAN  -1.7     2.4    1031      90      32    0.00     569     544    
SAT 12Z 27-JAN  -1.7     5.8    1031      87      14    0.00     569     545    
SAT 18Z 27-JAN   7.4     4.9    1029      72      67    0.00     571     548    
SUN 00Z 28-JAN   6.8     3.3    1027      86      45    0.00     572     551    
SUN 06Z 28-JAN   6.7     3.8    1024      98      98    0.02     570     550    
SUN 12Z 28-JAN   8.9     6.2    1021      99      98    0.02     570     553    
SUN 18Z 28-JAN  10.9     8.3    1016      99      99    0.14     570     557    
MON 00Z 29-JAN  11.0     8.9    1012      99      93    0.41     569     559    
MON 06Z 29-JAN  10.9    11.0    1009     100      93    0.08     567     560    
MON 12Z 29-JAN  10.7     8.6    1010     100      82    0.03     565     557


Where can these be found?

If we're going to have a thaw I'll certainly take a dry one. A rainy thaw period is perhaps the worst possible outcome in winter. Enjoying the outdoors becomes nearly impossible.
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RobB
post Yesterday, 04:23 PM
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QUOTE(adurb44 @ Jan 19 2018, 04:17 PM) *
Where can these be found?

If we're going to have a thaw I'll certainly take a dry one. A rainy thaw period is perhaps the worst possible outcome in winter. Enjoying the outdoors becomes nearly impossible.



Accuweather Pro is where these text outputs are from.
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cary67
post Yesterday, 05:34 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 18 2018, 06:43 PM) *
I dont have Alans model suite anymore but here's his comment..

"New Euro weeklies pattern certainly looks pretty darn cold from the 2nd week of February on into March. Possible a cold end to the winter coming up if true."

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/954140153081147393

I thought the Euro weeklies have verified very poorly alot of this winter.
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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 05:47 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 19 2018, 03:55 PM) *
Thanks for the link. It was a nice read.


When I read "ôSo far this season, the Hurricane Hunters have flown two winter storm missions, one today and the other Jan. 3".. I was like TODAY?

I was about to check the latest models which I haven't done since yesterday but decided to see the date of the article. Jan 14th. lol Phew. Thought I was missing a big storm coming up. laugh.gif

QUOTE(adurb44 @ Jan 19 2018, 04:17 PM) *
Where can these be found?


See Rob's answer

QUOTE(adurb44 @ Jan 19 2018, 04:17 PM) *
If we're going to have a thaw I'll certainly take a dry one. A rainy thaw period is perhaps the worst possible outcome in winter. Enjoying the outdoors becomes nearly impossible.


I agree with that! Aside from the mud aspect.. Rain in winter is pointless around here, however.... good for crops even though ground is frozen...the ground isn't drying out. So there's some benefit to the rains for some folks (like me) that don't have a snowpack..

QUOTE(cary67 @ Jan 19 2018, 05:34 PM) *
I thought the Euro weeklies have verified very poorly alot of this winter.


Can't tell you. Haven't followed the verification of them or any models to be honest. Rely on others in here to update. smile.gif
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grace
post Yesterday, 06:07 PM
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QUOTE(cary67 @ Jan 19 2018, 04:34 PM) *
I thought the Euro weeklies have verified very poorly alot of this winter.



I think the only reason anyone is giving them credence it's because there are many other indicators that more of the same will come
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TheBlizzardOf197...
post Yesterday, 07:42 PM
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OT. blink.gif
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Attached File  26910519_10155295683716724_4319478317772425300_o.jpg ( 147.09K ) Number of downloads: 4
 
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idecline
post Yesterday, 08:55 PM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Jan 17 2018, 08:58 PM) *
...if you see this large storm entering the CONUS via West Coast...one might get an idea that a large snow event could be on the doorstep for upper Midwest...before the end of the month...
[attachment=344081:isawvcnepac.gif]

...my amateur eyes tell me Chicago could receive snows as soon as Monday/Tuesday timeframe...
with a second potentially heavier dose of snow late next week...
...edit from WPC Extended Forecast...
[attachment=344082:95ep48iwbg_fill.gif]

rolleyes.gif ...looks like snow to me...and lots of it...all depending on trajectories and ratios... dry.gif

QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jan 17 2018, 10:03 PM) *
Unfortunately looks like a nope for chi-town. You see the concave look to precip that is the jet punching through the center and thus just left is the LP which puts chi-town in the warmth as for the potential after that is up in the air. You need a low rocketing into MI and OH area to get the snows into that area.


...I am no midwest expert...doesn't the 'backside' look very promising for Chi-Town? ...and to the north blink.gif
Attached File  9khwbg_conus.gif ( 31.29K ) Number of downloads: 0


...we will see...this storm is very cold even in California... huh.gif


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RobB
post Yesterday, 09:37 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jan 19 2018, 06:07 PM) *
I think the only reason anyone is giving them credence it's because there are many other indicators that more of the same will come

Agreed. The weeklies have been pretty 'Meh' when it comes to apparent reliability but other guidance/signs as told by posts by those of varying degrees of skillz, support the weeklies. We shall see.
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NorEaster07
post Today, 07:24 AM
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GFS6z for Hartford. No snowstorms next 14 days. 3 Rain chances. 1 might see some backside snow but not a "storm". Up & Down temps.

CODE
GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: HFD    LAT=  41.73 LON=  -72.65 ELE=    16

                                            06Z JAN20   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
SAT 06Z 20-JAN   0.0     4.1    1012      78      52             557     548    
SAT 12Z 20-JAN   0.9     8.0    1010      71      32    0.00     559     551    
SAT 18Z 20-JAN   7.5     4.5    1010      59      36    0.00     559     552    
SUN 00Z 21-JAN   1.0     5.6    1014      91      48    0.00     561     549    
SUN 06Z 21-JAN  -0.6     4.7    1017      92      48    0.00     561     547    
SUN 12Z 21-JAN  -1.1     2.6    1021      91      50    0.00     562     546    
SUN 18Z 21-JAN   6.0     0.5    1021      67      51    0.00     563     547    
MON 00Z 22-JAN   0.1    -1.2    1023      91      13    0.00     566     547    
MON 06Z 22-JAN  -0.5    -1.0    1023      93      36    0.00     565     547    
MON 12Z 22-JAN   1.1     1.5    1023      96      78    0.00     566     547    
MON 18Z 22-JAN   4.1     3.1    1022      94      95    0.02     565     547    
TUE 00Z 23-JAN   3.0     3.8    1022      99      99    0.05     565     547    
TUE 06Z 23-JAN   4.1     3.2    1018      99      99    0.04     561     546    
TUE 12Z 23-JAN   8.8     5.0    1010      94      79    0.04     557     550    
TUE 18Z 23-JAN   8.8     3.7    1002      93      34    1.12     548     547    
WED 00Z 24-JAN   4.9    -2.5    1005      83      58    0.01     540     536    
WED 06Z 24-JAN   2.3    -4.5    1006      80      70    0.00     537     532    
WED 12Z 24-JAN   0.2    -7.4    1009      78      78    0.00     537     529    
WED 18Z 24-JAN   2.2   -10.7    1012      55       6    0.00     540     530    
THU 00Z 25-JAN  -3.1   -12.9    1018      64      12    0.00     538     524    
THU 06Z 25-JAN  -5.3   -13.0    1021      58      17    0.00     535     518    
THU 12Z 25-JAN  -7.0   -14.7    1025      45       9    0.00     534     515    
THU 18Z 25-JAN  -3.3   -16.6    1026      28      16    0.00     534     513    
FRI 00Z 26-JAN  -6.6   -14.8    1031      35      17    0.00     536     512    
FRI 06Z 26-JAN  -8.1   -12.8    1034      40      30    0.00     545     518    
FRI 12Z 26-JAN  -8.6    -9.6    1037      46      20    0.00     553     524    
FRI 18Z 26-JAN   0.3    -5.2    1035      29      87    0.00     558     530    
SAT 00Z 27-JAN  -1.9    -0.5    1034      52      52    0.00     563     537    
SAT 06Z 27-JAN  -1.3     0.8    1033      62      39    0.00     568     541    
SAT 12Z 27-JAN  -2.3     2.4    1034      75      18    0.00     572     545    
SAT 18Z 27-JAN   6.8     3.7    1032      49       3    0.00     573     547    
SUN 00Z 28-JAN   0.4     5.6    1032      77      12    0.00     573     547    
SUN 06Z 28-JAN   1.9     4.1    1030      96      63    0.00     573     549    
SUN 12Z 28-JAN   4.0     2.6    1027      97      55    0.00     573     551    
SUN 18Z 28-JAN  12.1     4.0    1022      79      63    0.00     571     553    
MON 00Z 29-JAN  11.1     5.5    1018      93      99    0.07     569     554    
MON 06Z 29-JAN  12.5     7.8    1010      93      97    0.43     567     558    
MON 12Z 29-JAN  12.6     9.4    1005      93      99    0.42     562     558    
MON 18Z 29-JAN   4.4     1.2    1008      85      99    0.19     557     550    
TUE 00Z 30-JAN   0.7    -7.9    1014      76       7    0.03     550     539    
TUE 06Z 30-JAN  -1.6   -11.9    1017      68       7    0.00     542     528    
TUE 18Z 30-JAN  -1.8   -16.6    1029      35       6    0.00     543     520    
WED 06Z 31-JAN  -6.1    -8.7    1041      41       9    0.00     563     532    
WED 18Z 31-JAN   0.0    -5.4    1041      23      38    0.00     569     537    
THU 06Z 01-FEB  -3.3    -2.2    1037      83      16    0.00     567     539    
THU 18Z 01-FEB   5.9    -3.6    1031      62       5    0.00     563     538    
FRI 06Z 02-FEB  -1.2    -1.0    1029      88      11    0.00     563     540    
FRI 18Z 02-FEB   4.4     0.5    1024      91      48    0.03     560     540    
SAT 06Z 03-FEB   4.5     3.4    1017      98      78    0.04     559     545    
SAT 18Z 03-FEB  10.2     5.8    1003      95      97    0.55     552     549    
SUN 06Z 04-FEB   1.9    -7.5     998      71      57    0.57     528     528    
SUN 18Z 04-FEB   1.3   -10.5    1012      40       9    0.00     534     524    
MON 06Z 05-FEB  -4.1    -9.3    1021      45      44    0.00     540     524


This weekend...

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Early this week

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This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Today, 07:24 AM
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