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> Long Range Spring 2017 Outlooks and Discussion, Share thoughts, forecasts, trends, excitement, anxiety here.
NorEaster07
post Today, 07:35 AM
Post #441




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Posts: 18,221
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From: SW Coastal CT
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With 8 days left, March 2017 still holding Top 10 coldest spot for Hartford and Bridgeport.


Note.. 3 of last 4 yrs has had an extremely cold March...and snowy to boot.


Attached File  records11.jpg ( 227.72K ) Number of downloads: 0


And
the forecast rest of March looks like this. While the normal max is now 50+ and there's no well above normal temps, those 50s might hurt the Avg temp. We'll see.


Attached File  forecast29.jpg ( 118.12K ) Number of downloads: 0



From my roof yesterday

Attached File  Webcam6.jpg ( 232.19K ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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RobB
post Today, 07:44 AM
Post #442




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Posts: 39,620
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16





3/24 0Z NAEFS and GEFS:




Attached File(s)
Attached File  naefs.png ( 79.78K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_1.png ( 115.08K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_6.png ( 112.76K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_11.png ( 110.15K ) Number of downloads: 3
 
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kpk33x
post Today, 08:13 AM
Post #443




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 1,697
Joined: 18-July 05
From: Intervale, NH
Member No.: 1,100





QUOTE(RobB @ Mar 22 2017, 02:42 PM) *
3/22 12Z NAEFS:


I think the scale on the NAEFS needs to be adjusted. It is always red. It has been red about 3/4 of this month for us and only blue on a few runs, yet we are 4F below normal for the month with at least 14 or 15 out of 23 days below to well below normal.


--------------------
Winter 2016-17 - Intervale, NH

Snow:
October - T
November - 3"
December - 38.25"
January - 15.75"
February - 46.25"
March - 18" (thru 3/15)
Season Total to date - 121.25" (Normal is 80")
First accumulating snow - Nov. 20-21
First significant event (4" plus) - Dec. 11-12
Date snow passed last year's total (44") - Jan. 1

First max below freezing - Dec. 7
First low below 20F - Dec. 4
First low below 10F - Dec. 10
First subzero low - Dec. 16
# of days w/ lows below zero - 8
# of days w/ max below 15F - 5
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WeatherMonger
post Today, 08:14 AM
Post #444




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From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 22 2017, 09:11 PM) *
The thing with winter events and threads is that they're all based on precipitation amounts. We only make threads solely for precipitation in the warm season if there's a flooding event (generally >6" from a system). Generally the models are good with pinpointing the area with greatest precipitation because I think the processes are just different from winter storms.

The majority of the threads that we make in the warm season is for severe weather. Depending on how desperate we are, sometimes we open threads 200+ hours out if there's good enough agreement. But if it's busy, we may neglect to look forward because we're so focused on the near-term.


Might not be long before we see our first flood thread. A lot of precip projected to fall over a large area. If the pattern remains active won't take much more to start becoming a nuiscance.

Attached File  p168i__2_.gif ( 48.83K ) Number of downloads: 0

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paletitsnow63
post Today, 09:11 AM
Post #445




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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Mar 24 2017, 09:13 AM) *
I think the scale on the NAEFS needs to be adjusted. It is always red. It has been red about 3/4 of this month for us and only blue on a few runs, yet we are 4F below normal for the month with at least 14 or 15 out of 23 days below to well below normal.

Yeah. The NAEFS has been "off" for the NE this month. I posted something in the long term winter thread about a week ago.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2221952
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jdrenken
post Today, 10:19 AM
Post #446




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From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 24 2017, 09:11 AM) *
Yeah. The NAEFS has been "off" for the NE this month. I posted something in the long term winter thread about a week ago.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2221952


It's because it's an ensemble forecast. Look at what the CPC had

500mb heights


Probabilities


What it boils down to is the ENS didn't see the March 14th phase Nor'easter and, because of that, muted the cold anomalies compared to the operationals. The NAEFS is merely another tool in the box and has a history of performing very well in sniffing out the pattern at hand.


--------------------
QUOTE
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 01:04 PM
Post #447




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Most unstable forecast sounding I've seen this year. Southern LA



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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WeatherMonger
post Today, 01:42 PM
Post #448




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Aside from the wind, absolutely perfect day. Sitting at 78 degrees as of 50 minutes ago
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RobB
post Today, 01:55 PM
Post #449




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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72.6 degrees IMBY. Awesome day..

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RobB
post Today, 01:57 PM
Post #450




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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3/24 12Z NAEFS and GEFS:




Attached File(s)
Attached File  naefs.png ( 78.93K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_1.png ( 116.85K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_6.png ( 110.79K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_11.png ( 107.96K ) Number of downloads: 1
 
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NorEaster07
post Today, 02:46 PM
Post #451




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From: SW Coastal CT
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QUOTE(RobB @ Mar 24 2017, 02:55 PM) *
72.6 degrees IMBY. Awesome day..


Lucky you. Im still trying to remember what upper 50s feels like. Lol Getting tired of seeing snow around.

Btw...Chicago record ba bye. 81 at 2pmCST


Last time they were this warm was October 17, 2016.


Normal date to hit 81 is April 30th. WOW.


Last time they hit this early was 2012 (March 14th)




--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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NorEaster07
post Today, 02:50 PM
Post #452




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Posts: 18,221
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





They had to raise the max just hours befkre.

QUOTE
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
106 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...
1015 AM CDT

Have bumped up forecast highs some for today, with mid 70s for
almost the entire CWA. Still think the daylight hours today will
be dry, but watching the frontal location to our north closely, as
it will lead to an abrupt temperature drop in northeast Illinois
when it heads south at some point this afternoon into early
evening.

A large part of the CWA has been under little to thin cirrus and
upstream conditions would lend that to continue through early-mid
afternoon, though there are signs of mid-cloud development on
recent GOES-16 imagery in northwest/far north central Illinois.
Within the overall upper diffluence, it`s tough to peg where mid
and high clouds may blossom, and that will impact overall
temperatures. Far northern locations right now look like they
could hang a few degrees below elsewhere given the clouds.

South-southwest surface winds have been gusting to 20 to 30 mph
across the area this morning, a sign that mixing and advection are
ensuing well.The 925mb temperatures at DVN and ILX were both 18C,
about at record levels for late March. While that will cool a
little this afternoon, it`s a sign of the potential aloft. Given
the temperature climb this morning and RAP/HRRR trends, have felt
comfortable inching temperatures up a couple/few degrees. Given
forecast mixing profiles, it would seem like locations east of
I-55 may have potential for gusts to 40 mph.

The stationary front to the north is draped across southern
Wisconsin, and lake enhanced southward to just north of the state
line. Pressure tendencies are fairly neutral on both sides of the
front, and with the surface low over the OK/TX panhandles
expected to not move north of east this afternoon, and only
slowly move at that, would expect the lake enhancement of the
front to increase. This should drop southward into northeast
Illinois, and right now lean toward this being a hair earlier than
initially forecast. With this being near peak heating in Lake
County, Illinois, the magnitude of temperature drop could be 20
degrees in 10-15 minutes. Confidence is pretty low on when
precisely this will reach the Chicago lakefront, but presently
have that forecast somewhere between 6-8 pm.


Funny to see.. NWS Forecast for Chicago..


At 9am today they had 72 as the max for today.
At 10am they bumped it to 75
at 1pm they said 77
Now at 2pm they said 80 and its still higher! LOLOL




--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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kpk33x
post Today, 02:53 PM
Post #453




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 1,697
Joined: 18-July 05
From: Intervale, NH
Member No.: 1,100





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 24 2017, 08:35 AM) *
With 8 days left, March 2017 still holding Top 10 coldest spot for Hartford and Bridgeport.
Note.. 3 of last 4 yrs has had an extremely cold March...and snowy to boot.
Attached File  records11.jpg ( 227.72K ) Number of downloads: 0


And
the forecast rest of March looks like this. While the normal max is now 50+ and there's no well above normal temps, those 50s might hurt the Avg temp. We'll see.
Attached File  forecast29.jpg ( 118.12K ) Number of downloads: 0

From my roof yesterday

Attached File  Webcam6.jpg ( 232.19K ) Number of downloads: 0


Currently March 2014 is our coldest since 1973 and 2015 is in 2nd place...2017 is holding onto 3rd with a week to go. 2016 was the 6th warmest in the past 45 years.


--------------------
Winter 2016-17 - Intervale, NH

Snow:
October - T
November - 3"
December - 38.25"
January - 15.75"
February - 46.25"
March - 18" (thru 3/15)
Season Total to date - 121.25" (Normal is 80")
First accumulating snow - Nov. 20-21
First significant event (4" plus) - Dec. 11-12
Date snow passed last year's total (44") - Jan. 1

First max below freezing - Dec. 7
First low below 20F - Dec. 4
First low below 10F - Dec. 10
First subzero low - Dec. 16
# of days w/ lows below zero - 8
# of days w/ max below 15F - 5
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