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> May 16-20 Plains/MW/OV/GL Severe Weather, Short-range forecasts/observations
ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 02:45 PM
Post #21




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Interesting that they go with a tornado warning now, not like 10 minutes ago.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 1 (Last: 5/14/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/15/18)
Slight risks: 2 (Last: 5/12/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 02:46 PM
Post #22




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Cell popped in south-central KS right along a boundary that existed 2 hours ago




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 1 (Last: 5/14/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/15/18)
Slight risks: 2 (Last: 5/12/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post Yesterday, 07:49 PM
Post #23




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Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





Today's severe weather threat really failed badly. Makes me wonder if that helps our chances tomorrow.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:

# of T-Storm Warnings:1

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Yesterday, 09:35 PM
Post #24




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From: Dayton,OH
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0z NAM doesn't do much tomorrow. 3K NAM on the other hand develops an MCS late Sunday night in W IL and reaches W OH by Monday morning.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:

# of T-Storm Warnings:1

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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WeatherMonger
post Yesterday, 10:20 PM
Post #25




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My bet is it won't even take a more organized band if storms to ruin tomorrow's potential, #centralILwxsucks


QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
857 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Latest surface analysis indicates a weak frontal boundary lying
across our far northern counties with the latest ILX objective
analysis indicating some persistent low level convergence along
this feature. However, not much has developed early this evening.
A large complex of storms moved across south central Missouri
late this afternoon into far southern Illinois with the outflow
boundary well off to our south at this hour. Another complex of
storms has moved northeast out of southwest Missouri but as it
encountered the much more stable air in place west of St.Louis
early this evening it has weakened with cell propagation more
to the east and southeast into a more unstable air mass. Due
to the two clusters of storms moving across south central Mo,
into far southern IL, quite a bit of convective inhibition in
place, so will do a little work on the POP chances across the
forecast area overnight.

The lastest High Resolution Rapid Refresh models continue their
trends from late this afternoon when they were suggesting not
much, if any strong convection was going to work its way northeast
into the area late tonight. Both the HRRR and HRRR-X suggest a
dissipating band of convection moves in towards Midnight and then
another cluster of storms tracks northeast out of Missouri into
our area Sunday morning. Just what affect, if any, this will have
on our convection chances tomorrow afternoon remains uncertain at
this point. If we see very little organized storm activity overnight,
we will be primed for strong to severe storms tomorrow afternoon
over at least our central and southern counties. If the Sunday
morning band of storms is more organized than currently forecast,
than our atmosphere may take longer to reload tomorrow afternoon
in addition to trying to determine the best location where storms
would fire
. For now, will not make any significant changes to
Sunday`s outlook and make some adjustments to the overnight POPs
based on current trends this evening. The updated ZFP should be
out by 9:15 pm.
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snowlover2
post Today, 12:52 AM
Post #26




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 19 2018, 10:35 PM) *
0z NAM doesn't do much tomorrow. 3K NAM on the other hand develops an MCS late Sunday night in W IL and reaches W OH by Monday morning.

HRRR goes through tomorrow evening now and has constantly shown a pretty large bowing MCS develop around St. Louis and really bows out as it gets into IN. Wouldn't be surprised if SPC has an enhanced area on the new outlook shortly. Wouldn't surprise me if they stay slight for now either.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:

# of T-Storm Warnings:1

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Today, 01:02 AM
Post #27




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From: Dayton,OH
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And SPC not only drops the slight but shrinks the marginal.
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QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE OZARKS INTO THE OH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms may develop across portions of the lower
Missouri and Ohio Valley today. Additional strong storms are
possible across portions of central Texas.

...Lower MO and OH Valleys...
A ribbon of 30-40 kt 500mb flow will extend from the western part of
the Ozark Plateau northeast into the southern Great Lakes during the
day. Considerable convective overturning is expected across the
southern Plains prior to sunrise in association with several
thunderstorm complexes. A weak mid-level shortwave trough, likely
augmented to a certain extent by an overnight MCV, will move into
the Ozarks during the day. Model guidance varies considerably in
the location and coverage of storms through the morning but it
appears extensive southwest-northeast convective clusters will decay
during the morning from TX northeast into MO. Model guidance
appears too aggressive with boundary-layer destabilization today
from the lower MO into the OH Valleys. The 00Z NAM appeared
systemically biased too high in its depiction of boundary layer
moisture (1-2 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratio) compared to
Saturday evening RAOBs over OK into the Deep South and north in to
the mid MS and OH Valleys. Cloud debris will likely hamper heating
in areas but cloud breaks will lead to weak to moderate
destabilization by mid afternoon (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Deep layer
shear will weaken with equatorward extent with the mid-level ridge
over the Deep South. Several clusters of strong to severe storms
capable of isolated large hail/damaging gusts will probably peak in
intensity during the late afternoon before weakening during the
evening.

...TX...
A composite outflow/front will split the northwest and southeast
halves of TX during the morning. This boundary is forecast to slide
southeast during the day with a convective line probably maintained
across east-central TX. Additional storms may develop during the
day on the trailing edge of the boundary over the Hill Country.
Localized wind damage and hail may accompany the strongest storms.
Farther west, moist easterly upslope flow and strong heating near
the higher terrain will probably yield moderate buoyancy by mid
afternoon. Strongly veering wind profiles will support the
potential for updraft rotation. Only isolated storm coverage is
expected and thunderstorms will likely diminish by mid evening.

..Smith/Cook.. 05/20/2018


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# of T-Storm Watches:

# of T-Storm Warnings:1

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 01:02 AM
Post #28




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 19 2018, 08:49 PM) *
Today's severe weather threat really failed badly. Makes me wonder if that helps our chances tomorrow.

Probably not. The EML is going to dampen out regardless of whether the storms are severe or just stratiform rain.

QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 20 2018, 01:52 AM) *
HRRR goes through tomorrow evening now and has constantly shown a pretty large bowing MCS develop around St. Louis and really bows out as it gets into IN. Wouldn't be surprised if SPC has an enhanced area on the new outlook shortly. Wouldn't surprise me if they stay slight for now either.

Are you surprised that they downgraded it to marginal? laugh.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Today, 01:03 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 1 (Last: 5/14/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/15/18)
Slight risks: 2 (Last: 5/12/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post Today, 01:06 AM
Post #29




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 18,365
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 20 2018, 02:02 AM) *
Probably not. The EML is going to dampen out regardless of whether the storms are severe or just stratiform rain.
Are you surprised that they downgraded it to marginal? laugh.gif

Last thing I expected.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:

# of T-Storm Warnings:1

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 01:15 AM
Post #30




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,343
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 20 2018, 02:06 AM) *
Last thing I expected.

I'm not that surprised. MCS's are currently ongoing, MCS expected tomorrow. Don't know if the models are handling everything right right now. Not only might they be mishandling the current MCSs ( = lingering showers/debris clouds), they might be mishandling tomorrows MCS (where it forms and its track)


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 1 (Last: 5/14/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/15/18)
Slight risks: 2 (Last: 5/12/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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