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> Feb 25-26th MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Forecasts, discussions and OBS
MaineJay
post Feb 18 2018, 05:52 AM
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So I'm not sure how great a winter threat this is, but in looking through the EPS members, there is support for some type of system moving through. I believe it's separate from the previous thread from Poc and the subsequent one from UTS. At least I hope so. smile.gif

Everything from a western great Lakes track, to something sliding off the SE coast, and everything in between is represented.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro

EPS with spread

Hour 192
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216
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GEFS spaghetti shows the sizeable spread in the northern stream

Attached Image


I know it's a low probability event, but you never know at this lead time.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Feb 25 2018, 06:28 AM


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Undertakerson
post Feb 18 2018, 05:57 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 18 2018, 05:52 AM) *
So I'm not sure how great a winter threat this is, but in looking through the EPS members, there is support for some type of system moving through. I believe it's separate from the previous thread from Poc and the subsequent one from UTS. At least I hope so. smile.gif

Everything from a western great Lakes track, to something sliding off the SE coast, and everything in between is represented.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro

EPS with spread

Hour 192
Attached Image

216
Attached Image
GEFS spaghetti shows the sizeable spread in the northern stream

Attached Image


I know it's a low probability event, but you never know at this lead time.


I'm pretty certain you placed this one appropriately, MJ. Seems like a C-N NE threat, but I haven't really looked at the ensembles all that closely.

Another "warm in winter, watch what follows" potential, at least at first glance. smile.gif
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MaineJay
post Feb 18 2018, 05:17 PM
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Keeping it updated.

EPS with spread

Attached Image

Attached Image


UKie has a kinda interesting leading up.

Attached Image


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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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MaineJay
post Feb 19 2018, 05:09 AM
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EPS with spread

Attached Image

Attached Image


GFS spaghetti shows northern stream chaos

Attached Image


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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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wtkidz
post Feb 19 2018, 07:26 AM
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Esterling mentions storms in extended discussion on.


All rain here but interesting about cold front boundary. One never knows this far out.
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--------------------
The weather is what it is and nothing will change it
but trying to forecast it is a lot of fun.



It’s Meteorology NOT Modelology
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MaineJay
post Feb 20 2018, 04:54 AM
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GYX

QUOTE
The weekend will see two fast-moving wave move thru, the first
will be Fri night, and the second Sunday into Sunday evening.
The first wave look like it could bring some SHRA/SHSN to the
region, although the best chance will be in the nrn zones, and
any snow accums will be light. The second which will move in
Sunday, looks a little bit more impressive, although still not
strong, but could produce a period of snow to rain near the
coast, and a few inches of snow in the north
. Saturday will be
mild with highs mostly in the 40s, although cooler near the intl
border, and Sunday will see highs closer to normal generally in
the 30s.



GEFS
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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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MaineJay
post Feb 22 2018, 06:28 AM
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Just keeping it updated. Pulled the dates forward a day.

GYX
QUOTE
Sat night Canadian high pressure becomes centered north of Maine
in the maritimes and allows cold air to drain south across the
region. Models show this cold air damming setting up nicely by
Sunday morning in advance of the next rapidly approaching WAA
pattern that approaches from the southwest. Sunday will be a mixed
PTYPE event with some light accumulations of snow over southern
and central areas before a changeover to the mixed
precipitation and eventually rain. Over the western mountains
and foothills of Maine enough cold air may remain in place for
more significant accumulations of snow to occur before any mix
occurs
. This system will also be a fast mover and will exit the
area by later Sunday night.


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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MaineJay
post Feb 23 2018, 05:30 AM
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Lol, this might end up being the shortest thread ever, might not even make two pages. laugh.gif


GYX
QUOTE
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will intensify Sunday before crossing over the
western Great Lakes. Warm air will surge ahead of this system
aloft and into New England late in the weekend as a dry and
cold area of high pressure gradually exits to the Canadian
Maritimes. Evaporation cooling will allow the precipitation to
begin as snow in all areas before the warm air advection
overwhelms the atmosphere over southern areas. Precipitation
is expected to change to a mix over southern and central areas
per latest forecast soundings.


A weak wave of low pressure will form along the southern New
England coastline Sunday evening before crossing through the
Gulf of Maine Sunday evening. This will effectively shut off the
warm air advection.



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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Undertakerson
post Feb 23 2018, 05:37 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 23 2018, 05:30 AM) *
Lol, this might end up being the shortest thread ever, might not even make two pages. laugh.gif
GYX

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vox populi is tiring of rain.
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telejunkie
post Feb 23 2018, 09:35 PM
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Was right at about the freezing mark at the outset of precip, but was pure rain which it stayed for the duration. Looks like we're all done now....

Sorry MJ...that was my best to effort to help push it towards a second page, but just not much to say about this one...

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Feb 23 2018, 09:37 PM


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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MaineJay
post Feb 23 2018, 10:14 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Feb 23 2018, 09:35 PM) *
Was right at about the freezing mark at the outset of precip, but was pure rain which it stayed for the duration. Looks like we're all done now....

Sorry MJ...that was my best to effort to help push it towards a second page, but just not much to say about this one...



Lol, the "good news" is that this is for the Sunday "event". smile.gif

GYX

QUOTE
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The southerly flow ahead of a large area of low pressure moving
northeast over the western Great Lakes will spread moisture into the
region during the day Sunday. At the same time, high pressure over
the Canadian Maritimes will funnel cold air into the region near the
the ground. Precipitation will spread northeastward from
southwestern New Hampshire, starting about daybreak, reaching
all of western Maine by about noon. The forecast challenge
continues to be precipitation type. The precipitation is
expected to start as snow in all areas. However, as a wedge of
slightly warmer air moves over the region at about 7000 feet
aloft, the snow may mix with or change to sleet and possibly
freezing rain. Below this warm wedge in the atmosphere,
initially, there will be sufficient sub-freezing air to
refreeze any melted or partially melted precipitation. However
with time, the entire column of air will gradually warm to allow
for a brief period freezing rain or rain. The other part of the
challenge will be surface temperatures. The cold and dry flow
from the high pressure center to the northeast will help
suppress warming during the day, contributing to the possibility
of freezing rain if temperatures aloft warm sufficiently to
melt the falling snow or sleet before surface temperatures warm
above freezing.


At this time, models suggest that most of the precipitation
across the region will fall as snow and/or sleet with the GFS
leaning more toward snow with the NAM slightly warmer aloft
leaning more toward sleet. Across southern sections of the
area, the precipitation may briefly change to rain or freezing
rain before ending late Sunday afternoon or evening.
Farther
north, the snow may mix with a brief period of sleet or freezing
rain before ending. High temperatures Sunday are likely to be
within a few degrees of freezing all areas, warming a few
degrees as the precipitation comes to an end. Total snowfall
amounts will likely be 1 to 3 inches along the coast, to 3 to 6
inches across the interior and foothills. The northern mountains
may see somewhat less snow as overall precipitation amounts are
lower.


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MaineJay
post Feb 24 2018, 04:20 AM
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GYX

QUOTE
Models agree on moving another short wave rapidly northeast
through the region on Sunday. This will mean another widespread
WAA overrunning pattern to develop with several inches of snow
expected during the day with lowest amounts along the coast as
some low level warm air works into the low levels as the
southeast onshore flow develops and tries to move inland. Models
hinting this to be another classic cold air damming situation
with placement of high pres to the north locking in the cold air
for most if not all of the event. Fairly high confidence of a
3-6 inch snowfall across much of the area Sunday with possibly
lower amounts to be along the coast and southern areas. Mid
level temps are forecast by models to be plenty cold enough for
most of the event to be snow although it may end as a light mix
toward the end of the day.

Due to this occurring during Sunday (our third period), we will
be holding off on any headlines at this time, but it appears a
winter weather weather advisory may be needed for Sunday for
much of the area.


SREFs

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QPF

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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Solstice
post Feb 24 2018, 10:13 AM
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Seems like this thread is MJ's personal lawnchair. laugh.gif.

SREF Low Centers
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--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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rtcemc
post Feb 24 2018, 02:32 PM
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I don't even know it this thread is for this storm, but this pig is taking forever to precipitate. Been knocking on the door all morning.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/northeast...n/weather-radar
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so_whats_happeni...
post Feb 24 2018, 04:09 PM
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Just had some undulatus asperatus clouds roll through got some cool pics hoping I can somehow do it from my phone or maybe email myself. I wasnt sure where to even post this but figured lets try and expand it to 2 pages


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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rtcemc
post Feb 24 2018, 04:51 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Feb 24 2018, 04:09 PM) *
Just had some undulatus asperatus clouds roll through got some cool pics hoping I can somehow do it from my phone or maybe email myself. I wasnt sure where to even post this but figured lets try and expand it to 2 pages

Do it, just because I get aroused when you use them dirty weather words laugh.gif Undulatus asperatus. Spell check doesn't even know these words. Now that I think about it, don't use these words. Just go with clouds. It 's kind of like when I had to reprimand UT about use of dendrites, instead of snow flakes. Just too geeky tongue.gif tongue.gif
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so_whats_happeni...
post Feb 24 2018, 04:56 PM
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Lets see if it works
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--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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MaineJay
post Feb 24 2018, 05:24 PM
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GYX

QUOTE
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Low pressure will move up the Ohio valley overnight before
pushing a warm front through the area on Sunday. This will
result in widespread light overrunning precipitation throughout
the day. With the high to our northeast expect a northeasterly
drainage flow to keep temperatures colder through the interior
of Maine and into the Lakes Region of New Hampshire in a classic
cold air damming scenario. Because of this have gone on the
colder side of most guidance.
For central Maine expect many
locations to see the max temperature late in the day as westerly
flow moves in behind the system.

With cold air at the surface, the next factor for precipitation
type is the temperatures aloft. Cold air will be quite deep at
the surface and so precipitation will start off as snow
everywhere on Sunday morning.
Through southern New Hampshire
warm air will start to infiltrate by mid morning with a switch
to sleet and then freezing rain. Overall the warmest
temperatures are not able to penetrate into the cold dome of
Maine where ptype will be entirely snow
.

The precipitation will come to an end Sunday evening as the low
moves off shore and a trailing cold front moves in. For
interior Maine the cold front will result in the precipitation
ending just as the warm air would arrive preventing much in the
way of ice or sleet accumulation. New hampshire will see a few
hours of freezing rain and sleet, with up to 0.1" ice
accumulation around the summits of the Monadnocks. Due to the
ice and sleet a winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
southern New Hampshire into York county of Maine. This will be
starting before daybreak and will likely impact morning travel.
Through the White Mountains of New Hampshire into Western Maine
we`ll see all snow, but again an advisory is warranted for
amounts around 4". The two areas of our CWA not under advisory
are the northern mountains, where the QPF and snow totals are
lowest, and the coast of Maine from Portland east where the
ocean may keep temperatures warm enough to be mostly rain.


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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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NorEaster07
post Feb 24 2018, 05:30 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Feb 24 2018, 04:56 PM) *
Lets see if it works


Worked. Nice shot!
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NorEaster07
post Feb 24 2018, 05:31 PM
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1-5pm loop today. What else is new. Clouds and Rain. Had sun for 3hrs this morning. Felt amazing

At least its a warm rain and not 30s like past 2 days.

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