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> May 16-22, 2017 MidAtl/NE Warmth, Last minute forecasts/ Observations
Undertakerson
post May 15 2017, 04:11 PM
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Looks like we have a one week window of warmth for the region. Still a touch below average today, but tomorrow through Thursday go HOT, calming back a bit for the weekend before the cooler (than average) temps make a run at us near 5-22/23.

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QUOTE
Model spread and resulting forecast uncertainty ramps up
Fri-Sun, revolving around timing and southern reach of a back
door cold front.


Frontal passage Friday, followed by a return of warm front late
in the weekend
ahead of a surface low tracking west of PA.


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: May 15 2017, 04:12 PM
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WeatherDudeNYC
post May 15 2017, 04:48 PM
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Looks like a 4 day period of very warm temps. Think NYC will touch 90F
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--------------------
There is no such thing as boring weather.
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NorEaster07
post May 15 2017, 05:21 PM
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Was wondering when this thread would pop. Lol.

QUOTE(WeatherDudeNYC @ May 15 2017, 05:48 PM) *
Looks like a 4 day period of very warm temps. Think NYC will touch 90F


4 days for here too. Seasonable for weekend. (Normal is 70 away from coast). Im so ready.
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NorEaster07
post May 15 2017, 05:28 PM
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GFS MOS everday went higher and higher for Thursday for Hartford..but 94 now??? blink.gif I doubt that.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/mrfmosmap.php

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MaineJay
post May 16 2017, 05:20 AM
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GYX
QUOTE
Prev Disc...
At 06z...a 996 millibar low was centered southeast of Nova
Scotia. A 1018 millibar high was draped across the eastern Great
Lakes. For today...the ocean low will exit to our east with
rising heights with the surface ridge sliding eastward into New
England. A westerly offshore flow and sunshine along with
moderating 850 millibar temperatures should allow us to warm
into the 70s...
with some upper 60s vicinity of the international
border. Other then some high and mid clouds spilling over the
top of the upper ridge it will be a mainly sunny day across the
region for a change.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Mid and high clouds spread north and east across the area
tonight as the warm front makes its way into New England and
there could be a few late night sprinkles...especially near the
international border. On Wednesday...the warm front will quickly
lift to our north along with the clouds and any light showers or
sprinkles. A strengthening south to southwest flow and strong
May sunshine should boost temperatures into the 80s over much of
New Hampshire and adjacent interior southwest Maine
. Elsewhere...the
onshore trajectory off the Gulf of Maine should limit highs to the
70s...with some 60s for mid coast Maine vicinity of Penobscot Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Record high temperatures may occur Thursday.

The heat is on with evening Wednesday night starting out with
maxi min overnight low temperature records for portions of the
region. With good mixing on a southwest gradient, overnight lows
will remain as warm as the lower 60s over southern areas.


Strong ridging will allow for warm air advection to continue on
Thursday, allowing temperatures to soar across the region. +18C
at H8 with good mixing and plenty of sunshine will yield some
lower 90s to possibly even mid 90s over southern areas. 80s
expected over the north and much of Maine outside interior York
County.
The Midcoast will be the cool spot with only 70s for
high temperatures as the wind comes off the water which remains
only in the mid 40s. It will be breezy from the start to the
finish of the day. A southwest flow may become onshore at times
across coastal York and Cumberland counties, allowing
temperatures to periodically jump up or down. The record high
for Portland on Thursday is only 82 degrees set back in 1949.
The record looks very vulnerable at this time.


A prefrontal trough may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms
over northern areas Thursday night. It will remain very mild and
breezy.

A strong FROPA will occur on Friday. Timing is crucial. With
very warm air in place, readings may rapidly climb during the
morning over southern sections. All models within the 00Z suite
currently bring the front to the coast by 18Z. There will be a
chance for a shower or thunderstorm to accompany this boundary.


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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Undertakerson
post May 16 2017, 05:20 AM
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Record temp for tomorrow at KMDT is 91F - we look to challenge that mark, for sure. Some short range models, push us up to as much as 92F.
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NorEaster07
post May 16 2017, 05:24 AM
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Nobody has gotten a heat wave yet north of South Carolina. Only few select spots even hit 90 once.


Heat wave for Philly this week? ohmy.gif


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NorEaster07
post May 16 2017, 05:27 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 16 2017, 06:20 AM) *
Record temp for tomorrow at KMDT is 91F - we look to challenge that mark, for sure. Some short range models, push us up to as much as 92F.


These maps should help..



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NorEaster07
post May 16 2017, 05:28 AM
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Undertakerson
post May 16 2017, 05:31 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 16 2017, 06:24 AM) *
Nobody has gotten a heat wave yet north of South Carolina. Only few select spots even hit 90 once.
Heat wave for Philly this week? ohmy.gif


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Yep - the DP's in the mid 60's with those temps = Phew!!

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MD Blue Ridge
post May 16 2017, 06:59 AM
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Excited about this. This should get the hilltop into the mid 80's. 85F as NWS has us pegged is probably a stretch. But we shall see.


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Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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kpk33x
post May 16 2017, 09:26 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 16 2017, 06:27 AM) *
These maps should help..

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Some of the May 17th records are easy pickings, compared to the 18th and 19th. Surprising, considering DC/Baltimore can get to the 90s in April that the 17th is that low.

What a change for up here considering the fact that Sunday morning was mid 30s with rain and snow in the area. Today it isn't exactly hot but in the 50s in the morning is the warmest it has been in some time. We look to spike to 82F tomorrow and 87F for Thursday. That is warm here but not ungodly hot (we occasionally get 90s in May). Then back down to the 60s and 70s where it should be.

The bad thing about it finally stop raining and warming up at the same time brought all the bugs out at once. sad.gif


--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F: Oct. 16
...Frost: Oct. 25
...First sub-freezing low: Oct. 29
...Snow reported: Oct. 28

Foliage: As close to peak as we'll see here (Nov. 4)
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MaineJay
post May 16 2017, 04:32 PM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ May 16 2017, 10:26 AM) *
The bad thing about it finally stop raining and warming up at the same time brought all the bugs out at once. sad.gif


The black flies are formidable, felt like the bottom of the food chain today, but it was in the upper 70s and abundant sunshine.


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Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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WeatherDudeNYC
post May 16 2017, 05:18 PM
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Today wasn't so bad. The light wind made it comfortable in the shade. Had temps in low 80's with dew points in the 40's. Nice cool.gif


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MD Blue Ridge
post May 16 2017, 09:15 PM
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Today could not have been prettier. 75 perfect degrees.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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NorEaster07
post May 17 2017, 05:49 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ May 16 2017, 10:15 PM) *
Today could not have been prettier. 75 perfect degrees.


70s? What's that like? It's either 80s or 60s or 50s here. lol tongue.gif



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NorEaster07
post May 17 2017, 05:50 AM
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Today





Tomorrow







Friday





http://www.weather.gov/erh/gis_wfo?id=OKX


Then back down we go for the weekend max of 60s.
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NorEaster07
post May 17 2017, 06:26 AM
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NorEaster07
post May 17 2017, 12:18 PM
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1pm: 81F here (normal max is 70)
Dewpoint near 60.


Summer looking 1pm temp map. widespread 80s even into Canada.

Upper 80s in Northern CT and into MA. NYC as well



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Undertakerson
post May 17 2017, 01:56 PM
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Up to 87 at MDT and 88 at CXY - gonna be close to hit that record of 91F (at MDT), but we do have another two solid hours to go and few if any clouds at all, so....
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