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> Jan. 3rd - 8th Plains/MW/GL/OV Cold, Observations and Forecasts
ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 28 2016, 11:32 AM
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One thing that looks for sure is the next cold snap coming in first week of January. Lets hope this thread lasts as long as the December one. (6th-22nd)

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Jan 1 2017, 01:08 AM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 28 2016, 11:32 AM
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ECM

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Dec 28 2016, 11:33 AM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 28 2016, 12:02 PM
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2m
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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 28 2016, 12:03 PM
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Very interesting Tweet from Eric Webb. Last night's EPS shows a very similar progression, if not downright identical, to the analog composite he posted.

QUOTE
NCEP/NCAR R1 (1948-present) Top 20 January -EPO days animation rolled forward one week. -WPO regimes often lag -EPOs #npacretrogression


https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/814139788693504001


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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 28 2016, 12:06 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Dec 28 2016, 12:03 PM) *
Very interesting Tweet from Eric Webb. Last night's EPS shows a very similar progression, if not downright identical, to the analog composite he posted.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/814139788693504001

looks like what happened in December, cold comes in, hangs around a week-10days and SE ridge comes back in for equally as long. Rinse and repeat rolleyes.gif
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RobB
post Dec 28 2016, 12:10 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Dec 28 2016, 12:06 PM) *
looks like what happened in December, cold comes in, hangs around a week-10days and SE ridge comes back in for equally as long. Rinse and repeat rolleyes.gif



I would not mind that at all if we could get a decent storm. I like having a break from the cold from time to time, only if I am fed by snow..
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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 28 2016, 12:11 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Dec 28 2016, 12:06 PM) *
looks like what happened in December, cold comes in, hangs around a week-10days and SE ridge comes back in for equally as long. Rinse and repeat rolleyes.gif

Would you be surprised if I told you CFS's output for January looks similar to the December pattern? laugh.gif




As I said in the winter thread, CFS didn't fully catch on to the December pattern until the first week of the month. So we still have a week and a half until we can be more sure about the CFS.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 28 2016, 12:12 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 28 2016, 12:16 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Dec 28 2016, 12:10 PM) *
I would not mind that at all if we could get a decent storm. I like having a break from the cold from time to time, only if I am fed by snow..



QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Dec 28 2016, 12:11 PM) *
Would you be surprised if I told you CFS's output for January looks similar to the December pattern? laugh.gif


As I said in the winter thread, CFS didn't fully catch on to the December pattern until the first week of the month. So we still have a week and a half until we can be more sure about the CFS.

Im good with a "reloading" patterns...but not one that lasts 7-10+ days.....more along the lines of 2-3 days. Hopefully what the EPS and control show is just the January Thaw. The evolution of Decembers warmth though was country wide for the most part even in the NW Canada. It looks like what would be the January cycle keeps it cold in the NW which may hinder the duration of the warmth east?

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Dec 28 2016, 12:16 PM
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grace
post Dec 28 2016, 12:20 PM
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#BSR
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RobB
post Dec 28 2016, 12:30 PM
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CODE
WED 18Z 04-JAN   1.8    -7.3    1006      78      46    0.01     537     532    
THU 00Z 05-JAN  -1.3   -10.3    1010      82      70    0.02     533     525    
THU 06Z 05-JAN  -4.0   -13.4    1014      75      30    0.01     532     521    
THU 12Z 05-JAN  -7.3   -15.7    1017      67      13    0.01     533     519    
THU 18Z 05-JAN  -7.5   -17.4    1020      56      14    0.00     533     517    
FRI 00Z 06-JAN  -9.7   -20.1    1024      58      13    0.00     532     514    
FRI 06Z 06-JAN -11.5   -19.1    1026      63      53    0.00     530     510    
FRI 12Z 06-JAN -12.4   -17.9    1028      70      53    0.00     530     508    
FRI 18Z 06-JAN  -8.1   -17.5    1029      48      54    0.00     531     509    
SAT 00Z 07-JAN  -9.5   -16.3    1031      55      27    0.00     536     512    
SAT 06Z 07-JAN -10.2   -13.7    1033      56      34    0.00     539     515    
SAT 12Z 07-JAN -11.0   -12.7    1035      64      30    0.00     542     516    
SUN 00Z 08-JAN  -7.3   -11.4    1035      53      24    0.00     549     521    
SUN 12Z 08-JAN  -7.8    -9.6    1035      51      70    0.00     552     525    
MON 00Z 09-JAN  -3.7    -8.5    1032      45      48    0.00     551     526    
MON 12Z 09-JAN  -7.3    -7.5    1034      78      11    0.00     549     523    
TUE 00Z 10-JAN  -5.2    -7.1    1035      46      26    0.00     554     526    
TUE 12Z 10-JAN  -5.5    -3.6    1033      54      22    0.00     563     538    
WED 00Z 11-JAN   0.4     4.4    1025      60      10    0.00     572     551    
WED 12Z 11-JAN   2.1     6.3    1023      84      37    0.00     574     556

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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 28 2016, 12:32 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Dec 28 2016, 12:16 PM) *
Im good with a "reloading" patterns...but not one that lasts 7-10+ days.....more along the lines of 2-3 days. Hopefully what the EPS and control show is just the January Thaw. The evolution of Decembers warmth though was country wide for the most part even in the NW Canada. It looks like what would be the January cycle keeps it cold in the NW which may hinder the duration of the warmth east?

I'd imagine it depends on the ability for the PacNW airmass to move to our area. The biggest force it's going against (which is also responsible for the thaw after the trough moves out) is the SE ridge. It's been very effective at keeping the cold out of Florida and the extreme Southeast part of the country. We saw a trough run along the rim of the SE ridge just before the Christmas storm. That's an example of what could happen more or less often going forward.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 28 2016, 12:38 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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RobB
post Dec 28 2016, 12:37 PM
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12/28 12Z GEFS 5 day 2 meter temp anomalies:




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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 28 2016, 12:50 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Dec 28 2016, 12:32 PM) *
I'd imagine it depends on the ability for the PacNW airmass to move to our area. The biggest force it's going against (which is also responsible for the thaw after the trough moves out) is the SE ridge. It's been very effective at keeping the cold out of Florida and the extreme Southeast part of the country. We saw a trough run along the rim of the SE ridge just before the Christmas storm. That's an example of what could happen more or less often going forward.


It's no lie that every winter is unique....here we've got the cold but cutter after cutter

side note to your post above, my poor parents. The SE ridge as you said has been dominant in FL and the 1 time its going to get relatively broken down for a period of time will be during this current cold snap, which is when they'll be headed down

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RobB
post Dec 28 2016, 01:59 PM
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Euro IMBY

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  39.70  LON =  -84.23

                                            12Z DEC28
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
WED 12Z 28-DEC  -4.5    -2.7    1025      92      17    0.00     563     542    
WED 18Z 28-DEC   5.4     0.8    1020      52       7    0.00     562     546    
THU 00Z 29-DEC   3.9     5.0    1014      57      98    0.00     558     547    
THU 06Z 29-DEC   4.1     0.2    1009      86      65    0.06     549     542    
THU 12Z 29-DEC   0.9    -4.0    1012      74      16    0.00     535     526    
THU 18Z 29-DEC   4.1    -4.8    1012      52      37    0.00     532     522    
FRI 00Z 30-DEC   1.1    -8.1    1015      65      95    0.00     531     519    
FRI 06Z 30-DEC  -0.8   -10.4    1016      62      83    0.01     530     517    
FRI 12Z 30-DEC  -2.4   -12.4    1019      60      45    0.00     532     517    
FRI 18Z 30-DEC  -0.2   -11.8    1020      52      16    0.00     541     524    
SAT 00Z 31-DEC  -2.5    -6.1    1021      65      19    0.00     547     531    
SAT 06Z 31-DEC  -2.6    -1.4    1018      71      48    0.00     552     538    
SAT 12Z 31-DEC   1.3     1.4    1014      46      94    0.00     553     542    
SAT 18Z 31-DEC   5.8    -2.1    1012      47      99    0.00     552     543    
SUN 00Z 01-JAN   4.4    -2.6    1014      74      88    0.00     552     540    
SUN 06Z 01-JAN   2.3    -3.0    1018      92      45    0.00     555     540    
SUN 12Z 01-JAN   0.7     0.0    1022      93      31    0.00     561     544    
SUN 18Z 01-JAN   5.0     3.2    1020      90      88    0.01     565     548    
MON 00Z 02-JAN   6.3     6.7    1019      96      91    0.12     568     552    
MON 06Z 02-JAN   8.7     7.2    1018      94      56    0.06     570     555    
MON 12Z 02-JAN   9.7     8.3    1018      96      59    0.01     571     556    
MON 18Z 02-JAN  12.5    10.3    1015      94      72    0.02     570     558    
TUE 00Z 03-JAN  14.5    10.6    1011      96      67    0.18     568     559    
TUE 06Z 03-JAN  14.9    10.9    1008      96      95    0.15     564     558    
TUE 12Z 03-JAN  13.2     8.0    1010      94       3    0.13     564     555    
TUE 18Z 03-JAN  13.0     6.2    1011      69       6    0.00     561     552    
WED 00Z 04-JAN   7.6     3.0    1014      75      13    0.00     557     546    
WED 06Z 04-JAN   1.7    -1.5    1015      72      29    0.00     552     540    
WED 12Z 04-JAN  -4.9    -8.8    1017      56      20    0.00     543     529    
WED 18Z 04-JAN  -6.1   -16.8    1020      42      52    0.00     535     520    
THU 00Z 05-JAN  -7.4   -17.6    1022      44      53    0.00     537     519    
THU 06Z 05-JAN  -8.2   -14.7    1024      45      45    0.00     539     521    
THU 12Z 05-JAN  -9.2   -12.4    1025      48       8    0.00     539     520    
THU 18Z 05-JAN  -4.7   -12.3    1024      34      50    0.00     539     521    
FRI 00Z 06-JAN  -5.4   -12.2    1023      35      82    0.00     540     522    
FRI 06Z 06-JAN  -6.8   -12.2    1023      32      89    0.00     541     524    
FRI 12Z 06-JAN  -7.7   -12.6    1023      31      90    0.00     542     524    
FRI 18Z 06-JAN  -3.8   -12.1    1021      23      87    0.00     541     524    
SAT 00Z 07-JAN  -5.3   -12.8    1021      39      73    0.00     540     524    
SAT 06Z 07-JAN  -5.4   -13.0    1021      44      69    0.00     538     522    
SAT 12Z 07-JAN  -7.0   -14.4    1022      54      72    0.00     533     517

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WeatherMonger
post Dec 28 2016, 02:06 PM
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Thinking another tube of chap stick and maybe a second warm air humidifier might be in order. Last cold snap kicking my but still woth a lingering cold. Going on 5 weeks now, not nearly as bad as it was though.

If this thread ends with no snow, I will appear only for thunderstorm chances laugh.gif I'm about 75% over this glorified Autumn weather.
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RobB
post Dec 28 2016, 02:07 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Dec 28 2016, 02:06 PM) *
Thinking another tube of chap stick and maybe a second warm air humidifier might be in order. Last cold snap kicking my but still woth a lingering cold. Going on 5 weeks now, not nearly as bad as it was though.

If this thread ends with no snow, I will appear only for thunderstorm chances laugh.gif I'm about 75% over this glorified Autumn weather.



smile.gif
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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 28 2016, 02:14 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Dec 28 2016, 01:59 PM) *
Euro IMBY

[code]ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LAT = 39.70 LON = -84.23

only a 15 degree min? Need those GFS numbers
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RobB
post Dec 28 2016, 02:16 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Dec 28 2016, 02:14 PM) *
only a 15 degree min? Need those GFS numbers



A nice couple of inches of a snow blanket would be nice to help those smile.gif
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RobB
post Dec 28 2016, 03:35 PM
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12/28 12Z EPS 850 millibar temp anomalies:



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RobB
post Dec 28 2016, 03:37 PM
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12/28 12Z EPS Daily 850 anomalies starting at hour 144:






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