Noreaster 7-9th november, First snowstorm this season?! Options

[JJ Snowlover]

I hate these "tease" east coast systems that just skirt Ottawa. I hope this isn't a pattern setting up for this winter...

Not making fun of this system for those impacted by Sandy, it is unfortunate to have this hit them again, but it's another story of it storms where it was already storming...

[bigmt]

I hate these "tease" east coast systems that just skirt Ottawa. I hope this isn't a pattern setting up for this winter...

Not making fun of this system for those impacted by Sandy, it is unfortunate to have this hit them again, but it's another story of it storms where it was already storming...

This upcoming storm may be an example of one of multiple tracks we may see this winter but Sandy was a unique situation which (hopefully) we won't see again.

Compared to some recent winters, I think there will be more variety in terms of track this year. It's been a while since we've had a winter without serious ENSO forcing so it will probably be more dependent on the other less stagnant teleconnections.

[shane o mac]

On to the next storm for us in nova scotia as usual

[markj138]

I hate these "tease" east coast systems that just skirt Ottawa. I hope this isn't a pattern setting up for this winter...

Not making fun of this system for those impacted by Sandy, it is unfortunate to have this hit them again, but it's another story of it storms where it was already storming...

A lot of them on the East Coast dont want another bad storm but love the fact that Noreasters have already started affecting them which is a good sign for winter.Recent NAM runs actually bring NYC a decent snow storm which is getting them all happy.

[bigmt]

Via Brett's blog.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...-change/1144248

 590x393_11051943_windw.jpg ( 56.81K ) Number of downloads: 0


 590x393_11051949_sncan.jpg ( 54.97K ) Number of downloads: 0

Basically, this looks like a rain and wind storm for the Northeast U.S. coast and up into Nova Scotia/PEI Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. The storm actually peaks in intensity off the Middle Atlantic coast then weakens as it turns northeastward Thursday. I am concerned about strong northeast winds Wednesday evening from the New Jersey coast up through Long Island.

There will also be a relatively narrow band of accumulating snow with this particular storm. We drew up this initial snow forecast map for the storm before the eastward shift of the ECMWF model, but we will leave it for now since I have seen the ECMWF briefly go away from a consistent idea only to go back to it on a later run.

This does not look like a major snow event for Canada as the storm will be weakening and drier air will be getting wrapped into the circulation Thursday which will cut down on snowfall rates. However, I can certainly see some accumulation over southeastern Quebec with higher amounts to the southeast in the mountains.

I am sure this map will go through a few more adjustments between now and Wednesday so stay tuned.

For Montreal and Quebec City, the western edge of the snow will not be too far away and thus much of the event will be light, wet snow.

[knorthern_knight]

Anybody notice that the CMC pressure/precip prog at http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn...pe_gem_reg.html only goes up to hour 48? I've tried Opera as a backup, so it's not a matter of stale cookies in Firefox. I was following this storm on the CMC site, when I ran into this. Hope they fix it on the next run.

[bigmt]

Anybody notice that the CMC pressure/precip prog at http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn...pe_gem_reg.html only goes up to hour 48? I've tried Opera as a backup, so it's not a matter of stale cookies in Firefox. I was following this storm on the CMC site, when I ran into this. Hope they fix it on the next run.

Hmm, it goes to 120 hours for me. Hour 52 of the 00z:

 I_nw_g1_EST_2012110600_052.png ( 43.54K ) Number of downloads: 0

[bigmt]

Updated map from Brett.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...owstorm/1181050

 590x393_11061732_snowww.jpg ( 55.88K ) Number of downloads: 0

The coastal storm for the Northeast U.S. and the Maritimes will not be quite as intense as earlier forecasts, which is good news, but we still expect to see some coastal flooding and additional beach erosion Wednesday into Thursday along the coast, especially east and northeast facing beaches due to the north to northeast wind.

There will be a narrow band of accumulating snow with this storm, but with the changing track we have had to make some adjustments to the snow map. Again, this will not be a major snow event for New England and up into eastern Quebec and northwestern New Brunswick since the storm will be peaking too early and then drier air will be getting mixed into the circulation by Thursday, reducing the snowfall rates.

At this point, looks like the accumulating snow misses Montreal. I can see a slushy coating to 4 cm in Quebec City, while the higher elevations of southeastern Quebec and then up into northwestern New Brunswick see anywhere from 6 to 10 cm of wet snow.

[TheFrenchman]

Updated map from Brett.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...owstorm/1181050

 590x393_11061732_snowww.jpg ( 55.88K ) Number of downloads: 0

Big deception with this storm for Canada... Hopefully it's not a trend for this winter!!!

[snowgeek93]

Not what those east cost folks need at all right now.

Looks like nothing for southern ontario. If this pattern of storms up the eastern seaboard continues, we may be looking at the early signals of winter storm tracks based off previous years around this time. Though the lack of ENSO is enticing. It's been years since we have seen a winter with neither a major influence from El Nino or La Nina so all bets are off.

[EOsnowmom]

Anyone think there's a remote chance we might get a little bit of wind out of this system tonight? Maybe?

[snowgeek93]

In light of what has just happened in New York, I do not envy the system they are getting right now. We are fortunate that we do not have to deal with the mess that they are coping with. Still, it is extremely frustrating to see them get snow before us every year.

[knorthern_knight]

Anyone think there's a remote chance we might get a little bit of wind out of this system tonight? Maybe?

Doesn't look like it according to the Ottawa forecasts at http://text.www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/foreca...n-52&unit=m and http://text.www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/foreca...-118&unit=m 20 km/h is relatively minor.