Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

692 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:40 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


This below was today´s 12Z UKMET track and intensity output.

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2235063 · Replies: · Views: 10,780

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:31 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


The ECMWF and the Canadian had shown the track into Texas and then back SE into the GOMEX and then NE towards LA earlier. Now the 18Z GFS also shows that kind of track.

Very unique possible storm so far, especially if the same name is used.

A tropical storm once, then dissipated, then the low level center is reborn, and then it may take such a unusual track over the northwestern GOMEX.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2235059 · Replies: · Views: 10,780

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





Should be interesting to see how it will be looking tomorrow morning.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2235058 · Replies: · Views: 10,780

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:53 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


12Z ECMWF hour 216:

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234976 · Replies: · Views: 1,695

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:52 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


12Z ECMWF hour 192:

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234975 · Replies: · Views: 1,695

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:46 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


12Z ECMWF hour 192:

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234972 · Replies: · Views: 10,780

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:41 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


12Z ECMWF hour 168:

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234970 · Replies: · Views: 10,780

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:39 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


12Z ECMWF hour 168:

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234969 · Replies: · Views: 1,695

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:39 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


12Z ECMWF hour 144:

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234968 · Replies: · Views: 1,695

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:33 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


12Z ECMWF hour 144:

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234967 · Replies: · Views: 10,780

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


12Z ECM hour 120:

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234966 · Replies: · Views: 10,780

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:17 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


12Z ECMWF HOUR 96:

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234965 · Replies: · Views: 10,780

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:16 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


Indeed it looks better defined:

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234964 · Replies: · Views: 10,780

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:13 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


2PM NHC update:

QUOTE
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure over
the Yucatan Peninsula, associated with the remnants of Harvey, has
become better defined during the day. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development when the system moves over the Bay of
Campeche tonight, and a tropical depression is expected to form over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday, and move
in the general direction of the Texas coast on Friday. Interests in
northeastern Mexico and along the Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system, as it could produce storm surge and
tropical storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas
coast, and very heavy rainfall across portions of central and
eastern Texas from Friday through the weekend. Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234963 · Replies: · Views: 10,780

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:09 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


12Z ECM 72:

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234962 · Replies: · Views: 10,780

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:03 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


12Z ECMWF hour 48:

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234961 · Replies: · Views: 10,780

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:55 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


Let´s see what the 12Z ECMWF will bring to the table today.

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234959 · Replies: · Views: 10,780

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:28 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


QUOTE(stretchct @ Aug 22 2017, 12:21 PM) *
Euro text for Galveston shows 21"
CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: GLS LAT= 29.30 LON= -94.80 ELE= 52

00Z AUG22
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 TOTAL 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
FRI 00Z 25-AUG 29.4 19.4 1009 75 42 0.00 587 578
FRI 06Z 25-AUG 28.1 19.2 1011 84 59 0.02 588 578
FRI 12Z 25-AUG 27.4 19.1 1010 88 63 0.26 587 578
FRI 18Z 25-AUG 29.0 19.6 1012 79 65 0.33 588 578
SAT 00Z 26-AUG 27.0 18.5 1011 90 69 0.65 588 578
SAT 06Z 26-AUG 27.7 19.2 1012 86 75 0.99 588 577
SAT 12Z 26-AUG 27.1 18.2 1011 88 72 1.58 587 577
SAT 18Z 26-AUG 26.9 18.4 1013 89 84 2.60 588 577
SUN 00Z 27-AUG 26.8 18.3 1011 89 81 3.39 587 577
SUN 06Z 27-AUG 27.6 19.1 1011 85 86 3.93 587 577
SUN 12Z 27-AUG 26.4 18.2 1010 89 86 4.83 586 577
SUN 18Z 27-AUG 26.6 18.5 1010 89 78 6.05 586 577
MON 00Z 28-AUG 26.7 18.2 1007 90 84 6.83 584 578
MON 06Z 28-AUG 26.9 18.6 1008 87 89 8.53 583 577
MON 12Z 28-AUG 26.3 18.5 1005 91 94 10.83 581 576
MON 18Z 28-AUG 26.3 18.1 1004 88 82 13.39 580 577
TUE 00Z 29-AUG 26.1 18.5 998 90 96 15.65 578 580
TUE 06Z 29-AUG 26.4 19.4 994 90 69 20.19 577 582
TUE 12Z 29-AUG 24.7 18.6 996 93 66 21.34 577 581
TUE 18Z 29-AUG 27.1 18.1 1003 75 63 21.63 581 578
WED 00Z 30-AUG 26.1 18.0 1005 74 50 21.63 582 577


VCT is 20.23"
LBX is 23.72"
EFD is 21.53
IAH 15.44"



Impressive!
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234951 · Replies: · Views: 10,780

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


It seems activity will increase now for this cyclone.

We should start to follow and track it more closely.

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234950 · Replies: · Views: 10,780

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 11:42 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


GFS continues with the track towards the central Texas coast.

This run possibly has a CAT2.

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234936 · Replies: · Views: 10,780

Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 06:24 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


It looking more and more possible that the NW or NNW track towards Texas, may occur, even further north towards central Texas.

The 00Z GFS develops a powerful storm; a CAT 3 it seems - 956mb.

6 days out, it starts to get into that more realistic range.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234920 · Replies: · Views: 10,780

Phased Vort
Posted on: Aug 21 2017, 02:08 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Aug 18 2017, 10:03 AM) *
12Z ECMWF yesterday had Harvey going into the southern GOMEX, as it felt a slight influence coming from a trough passing over the western Great Lakes.

On today´s 00Z ECMWF there a dominant ridge over the eastern to central US, as Harvey approaches Belize, but then, that ridge gets kicked out by the same incoming trough shown on yesterday´s 12Z run, albeit more pronounced on this run and also working with a broken off loose piece of trough energy over the central GOMEX coast.

The incoming trough and that piece of cut off trough energy together, is enough to attract or pull Harvey northwestward towards the central GOMEX coast, as these 3 entities interact. Eventually, the trough passes and leaves an area of weak steering currents over the south central US and over the GOMEX northern coast, and with a new ridge building in from the upper Midwest. During this period, Harvey looks to become nearly stationary, and then eventually starts to move towards the west aiming for Texas, as it starts to interact with the new building ridge.

[attachment=327482:ecmwf_z5..._namer_5.png]

[attachment=327483:ecmwf_z5..._namer_7.png]

[attachment=327484:ecmwf_z5..._namer_8.png]

[attachment=327485:ecmwf_z5..._namer_9.png]

[attachment=327486:ecmwf_z5...namer_11.png]

Tropical Tidbits


It seems the models, namely the GFS and ECMWF, may be going back to the idea I talked about on the post quoted above.

Troughness combined with the retrograding upper level low, may allow for the "reborn Harvey" track towards the NW or NNW towards south Texas.

And the idea of a lack of weak steering currents later until a new high pressure builds in, looks to even allow that storm to come back eastward over the GOMEX and make a second landfall over the central GOMEX Texas, as today´s ECMWF showed.

This could be a prettu intersting storm to track.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234864 · Replies: · Views: 10,780

Phased Vort
Posted on: Aug 20 2017, 09:11 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 20 2017, 06:18 PM) *
Harvey is just resting - his soul remains and should reinvigorate. Once it does, it is Mexico or S TX bound. It then goes north and tries (on the GFS) to combine with trough energy behind next weekend's dip (see MidAtl/NE cool snap). The GFS then tries to use that combo parcel and some decent conditions off the SE FL coast, to make for a coastal system (hybrid??) in the LR.


biggrin.gif

Like that!
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234821 · Replies: · Views: 10,780

Phased Vort
Posted on: Aug 20 2017, 11:27 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 20 2017, 10:56 AM) *
This picture is a tell all - we have Harvey remnant energy, 92L energy, and incoming trough energy - all within relatively small frame. What happens exactly when is the question to be resolved. This has the potential to become big if they hit the same place/time - or to stay all apart and be not much more than typical moderate to heavy rain across the south. And that's just what could go on in the Gulf.

All this could combine in some form or fashion, off the EC.

So many possibilities

[attachment=327524:gfs_z500...t_atl_15.png]


12Z GFS is really showing this southeast development occuring with the mixing of energies from 92L and dying stalled out front over the southeast offshore waters.

Then, if the atlantic high pressure ridge and the building in great lakes high ridge combine and close the escape path to the NE over the Atlantic, this system could be pushed to the west towards the coast.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234798 · Replies: · Views: 1,695

Phased Vort
Posted on: Aug 19 2017, 11:17 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 18,553
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468


There may be the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing off the southeast coast somewhere over the Florida-Georgia-South Carolina coastal waters sometime by the next weekend in and around August 26 through 28.

There will be left behind pieces of energy, or a piece of a stalled out cold front as the main cold front leaves and a high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

That combination may lead to something trying to organize.

Let´s see if something at least tries to form.

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234784 · Replies: · Views: 1,695

692 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 

New Posts  New Replies
No New Posts  No New Replies
Hot topic  Hot Topic (New)
No new  Hot Topic (No New)
Poll  Poll (New)
No new votes  Poll (No New)
Closed  Locked Topic
Moved  Moved Topic
 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 23rd August 2017 - 10:51 AM