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AccuWeather.com Forums _ Current Weather - United States _ March 26-28 MidAtl/NE Spring Storm

Posted by: USCG AST Mar 18 2017, 03:36 PM

Euro seems to be showing the potential for another snow bomb. Globals have been hinting at this a couple of days now as well. Alot can change, but it seems to me the PV is going to be stronger than initially thought and therefore this may allow for a colder solution vs a cutter. We will see.

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Mar 18 2017, 03:47 PM

QUOTE(USCG AST @ Mar 18 2017, 04:36 PM) *
Euro seems to be showing the potential for another snow bomb. Globals have been hinting at this a couple of days now as well. Alot can change, but it seems to me the PV is going to be stronger than initially thought and therefore this may allow for a colder solution vs a cutter. We will see.

Thanks for making thread. Euro snowmap with the cmc hinting at the idea of a storm. Not a coastal bomb but a qpf blob


 

Posted by: USCG AST Mar 18 2017, 04:08 PM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 18 2017, 04:47 PM) *
Thanks for making thread. Euro snowmap with the cmc hinting at the idea of a storm. Not a coastal bomb but a qpf blob

It's not a coastal, it's an over running event. The PV pushes a little further down and the tri state area could be in for a massive hit.

Posted by: plowxpress Mar 18 2017, 04:19 PM

Ok, "banned" everyone "banned" including myself. laugh.gif laugh.gif

Long range fantasy land. PARD you couldn't be so lucky in one season ohmy.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 18 2017, 04:22 PM

(risks being banned, to show EAR support for this)




Posted by: PoconoSnow Mar 18 2017, 04:25 PM

Remember that huge over running event that had only a min pressure of like 1007 but dropped 30 inches in places

Reminds me a little of that. Appears to be a very unique setup that may unbalance fairly easily.

Posted by: phillyfan Mar 18 2017, 04:28 PM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 18 2017, 04:47 PM) *
Thanks for making thread. Euro snowmap with the cmc hinting at the idea of a storm. Not a coastal bomb but a qpf blob

P&C is currently 62 on Saturday next weekend. blink.gif

Posted by: phillyfan Mar 18 2017, 04:29 PM

and Steve D chiming in:

QUOTE
There's some interest about the ECMWF and significant snow on the guidance. You know, typical 10 day snow maps. You should know there is zero support of the operational ECMWF on the Ensembles.

Posted by: Storms R us Mar 18 2017, 04:38 PM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 18 2017, 04:47 PM) *
Thanks for making thread. Euro snowmap with the cmc hinting at the idea of a storm. Not a coastal bomb but a qpf blob



Is the EURO by itself? the CMC doesn't show that neither the GFS but it shows rain like the CMC but on 26th

 

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Mar 18 2017, 04:41 PM

QUOTE(Storms R us @ Mar 18 2017, 05:38 PM) *
Is the EURO by itself? the CMC doesn't show that neither the GFS but it shows rain like the CMC but on 26th

Obviously not ideal, but trending south since yesterday with each passing run. Something to keep an eye on for sure

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Mar 18 2017, 04:44 PM

QUOTE(phillyfan @ Mar 18 2017, 05:29 PM) *
and Steve D chiming in:

Yea he pretty much sealed the deal for me with the last system. He biffed with the blizzard saying it'll be too progressive. Tough to take him serious because he offers no insight on his thoughts going forward other than the models say this and that. Maybe he offers those in his premium service but whatever.

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Mar 18 2017, 04:49 PM

QUOTE(plowxpress @ Mar 18 2017, 05:19 PM) *
Ok, "banned" everyone "banned" including myself. laugh.gif laugh.gif

Long range fantasy land. PARD you couldn't be so lucky in one season ohmy.gif

Most likely no, but who knows....2009-2010 was a magical year for most of the people on this forum.

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 18 2017, 04:51 PM

I seem to recall the 2005 event as Kurt Bush of NASCAR doing snow angels at either Martinsville VA or Bristol, can't remember which



The 2004 event canceled out my taking my sister out for her birthday.

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 18 2017, 04:54 PM

QUOTE(phillyfan @ Mar 18 2017, 05:29 PM) *
and Steve D chiming in:

I don't know about that call - the EPS seem to have reasonable support for the Op run






Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 18 2017, 04:57 PM

USCGAT - I don't think your title meets guideline specs. Just thought you might like to know.

Should be more like

March26-28, 2017 MidAtl/NE Storm
Long Range Cogitation D7-10

Something more like that.

Posted by: MaineJay Mar 18 2017, 05:17 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 18 2017, 05:54 PM) *
I don't know about that call - the EPS seem to have reasonable support for the Op run








I agree, look at the spread, there's likely a cluster that are OP like.



Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 18 2017, 05:23 PM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 18 2017, 06:17 PM) *
I agree, look at the spread, there's likely a cluster that are OP like.



That is why I detest the platform known as Twitter. It allows too many people to post statements that are, at best, only loosely grounded in any kind of verifiable evidence. dry.gif

Posting stuff about DT, SD, JB, XYZ, ETC - all pretty much only mean so much to me. Not that they should not be posted here (I would vote they should not, but I'm no censor) - just give them little weight, and move on.

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 18 2017, 05:27 PM

Hmm - FWIW 18z GFS is dropping off a parcel of UL energy, down by ArkLaTex on or about 3/25 - just like the 12z Euro did



It's no carbon copy, but considering its previous runs were nothing like this, this is a large step towards a Euro like solution.


Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 18 2017, 05:28 PM

Dun-uh, dun-uh, dunta, dunta, dunta, dunta....




Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 18 2017, 05:31 PM

1042mb in SE Canada = trouble

Euro had 1041 in same location on the 12z Op run



Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 18 2017, 05:34 PM

1043mb - cad-ish, over running event - combo?




Dare I mention the storm that did that historically? (hint, not a recent storm)

Next frame SHP is up to 1044mb as precip hits the PA/NJ region. SLP still down near Big Bend of Fl/

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 18 2017, 05:37 PM

Uh oh - banning coming....

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 18 2017, 05:39 PM

This run does not, in itself, verify the Euro 12z. But it is very different than its own past couple runs (and ensembles I may add - the ensembles have IMHO, stunk this year - seem less trustworthy than past winters) and has some of the same noteworthy features.

Verbatim, the solution will not be the same.

But at this lead time, we never focus on the details. The larger picture has gained some "support" of a worrisome time period for OMW to make his last stand. (?)

Posted by: fordfisherman Mar 18 2017, 05:50 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 18 2017, 06:34 PM) *
1043mb - cad-ish, over running event - combo?




Dare I mention the storm that did that historically? (hint, not a recent storm)

Next frame SHP is up to 1044mb as precip hits the PA/NJ region. SLP still down near Big Bend of Fl/



Forecast the high, forecast the storm...???

Posted by: PoconoSnow Mar 18 2017, 05:55 PM

QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Mar 18 2017, 05:25 PM) *
Remember that huge over running event that had only a min pressure of like 1007 but dropped 30 inches in places

Reminds me a little of that
. Appears to be a very unique setup that may unbalance fairly easily.



QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 18 2017, 06:34 PM) *
1043mb - cad-ish, over running event - combo?




Dare I mention the storm that did that historically? (hint, not a recent storm)

Next frame SHP is up to 1044mb as precip hits the PA/NJ region. SLP still down near Big Bend of Fl/


Posted by: PoconoSnow Mar 18 2017, 05:59 PM



rolleyes.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 18 2017, 06:01 PM

QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Mar 18 2017, 06:59 PM) *


rolleyes.gif

Oh no you did-nt! ohmy.gif

First year I bought a Bota. wink.gif

(permanent ban coming)

Posted by: PoconoSnow Mar 18 2017, 06:02 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 18 2017, 07:01 PM) *
Oh no you did-nt! ohmy.gif

(permanent ban coming)


Had to

laugh.gif

*Bans self

Totally worth it

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Mar 18 2017, 06:21 PM

QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Mar 18 2017, 06:59 PM) *


rolleyes.gif

I have never seen so much snow and QPF for such a high MB low pressure

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 18 2017, 06:24 PM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 18 2017, 07:21 PM) *
I have never seen so much snow and QPF for such a high MB low pressure

Neither had any of the forecasters. They were PP'ng the event right up near it was unfolding.

Last minute adjustments took me from 2-4" forecast, to 6-10, then on up from there. IIRC, 18-21 fell in my zone before all was said and done.

Posted by: Mike W IN herkimer Mar 18 2017, 07:23 PM

Euro has trended south several run in a row, ggem was about 60 miles to far north..(12+)

Posted by: Mike W IN herkimer Mar 18 2017, 07:28 PM

Kbuf

Model guidance is in good agreement through Thursday, but diverges
after this. Low pressure will develop across the Midwestern States
on Friday but the track of this low is uncertain. There is agreement
than a warm front associated with this low will lift toward the
region late Thursday night and Friday, but the 12Z GFS tracks the
low across the Great Lakes and lifts this front through the region.
The ECMWF cuts this low off and stalls the front to our south with
the GGEM somewhere between these solutions. This makes temperature
(and precipitation type) forecasts very difficult for Friday and
Saturday. It appears temperatures will either be near normal or much
above normal depending on the position of the front. Expect
temperatures to rise well into the 50s (if not 60s) on the warm side
of the boundary.

Despite the differing model guidance, it appears it will a wet
pattern either way with precipitation likely for much of the Friday
and Saturday timeframe. This should mainly fall as rain, however
snow is still possible across the North Country depending on the
position of the front. Rainfall amounts could be moderate with an
inch not out of the question. This combined with snow melt may pose
a risk for minor flooding, but at this time this remains a small
risk given uncertainty in the track of the low.

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Mar 18 2017, 07:29 PM

QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 18 2017, 08:23 PM) *
Euro has trended south several run in a row, ggem was about 60 miles to far north..(12+)

The timing was perfect on the euro. The low and high met at the right time at the right spots.

Posted by: phillyfan Mar 18 2017, 07:31 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 18 2017, 06:34 PM) *
1043mb - cad-ish, over running event - combo?




Dare I mention the storm that did that historically? (hint, not a recent storm)

Next frame SHP is up to 1044mb as precip hits the PA/NJ region. SLP still down near Big Bend of Fl/

That is quite a bit different then the 12z gfs run. wink.gif wink.gif

Posted by: phillyfan Mar 18 2017, 07:32 PM

OT: But April 3rd (hour384 though)

Posted by: Mike W IN herkimer Mar 18 2017, 07:36 PM

I would personally take a blend of the ggem/euro..lol


Posted by: Mike W IN herkimer Mar 18 2017, 08:10 PM

Kalb

QUOTE
The GFS is
indicating the warm front will pass through allowing for a mild air
mass to build in for Saturday, while the parent storm tracks through
the eastern Great Lakes. However, the ECMWF is now showing a strong
1040 mb high migrating southeastward across Ontario/Quebec during
this time, which would result in the warm front possibly stalling
just to our south with the potential for waves of wintry precip
moving through. The position/strength of the high will have a large
influence in determining where the front sets up, so this is a very
low confidence for next weekend including temperatures and precip
types/amounts.

Posted by: joeman Mar 18 2017, 08:12 PM

western ct

SAT 3/25

53 /36
Rain and drizzle possible
Hist. Avg.
50/28


SUN 3/26

46 /28
Chance of a little a.m. rain
Hist. Avg.
50/28


MON 3/27

47 /26
Mostly sunny
Hist. Avg.
51/29


TUE 3/28

48 /30
Rain and drizzle possible

Posted by: Mike W IN herkimer Mar 18 2017, 08:28 PM

NWS going with low50s here as well but that will change depending on the track of said system, with that being said I'm sure they will use the elevation card lol

Posted by: Storms R us Mar 18 2017, 09:12 PM

QUOTE(phillyfan @ Mar 18 2017, 08:32 PM) *
OT: But April 3rd (hour384 though)



Fantasy with a big F wink.gif

Posted by: MD Blue Ridge Mar 18 2017, 09:13 PM

QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 18 2017, 09:28 PM) *
NWS going with low50s here as well but that will change depending on the track of said system, with that being said I'm sure they will use the elevation card lol


Mike, do you actually "laugh out loud" after each post?

Posted by: Storms R us Mar 18 2017, 09:14 PM

QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 18 2017, 08:28 PM) *
Kbuf

Model guidance is in good agreement through Thursday, but diverges
after this. Low pressure will develop across the Midwestern States
on Friday but the track of this low is uncertain. There is agreement
than a warm front associated with this low will lift toward the
region late Thursday night and Friday, but the 12Z GFS tracks the
low across the Great Lakes and lifts this front through the region.
The ECMWF cuts this low off and stalls the front to our south with
the GGEM somewhere between these solutions. This makes temperature
(and precipitation type) forecasts very difficult for Friday and
Saturday. It appears temperatures will either be near normal or much
above normal depending on the position of the front. Expect
temperatures to rise well into the 50s (if not 60s) on the warm side
of the boundary.

Despite the differing model guidance, it appears it will a wet
pattern either way with precipitation likely for much of the Friday
and Saturday timeframe. This should mainly fall as rain, however
snow is still possible across the North Country depending on the
position of the front. Rainfall amounts could be moderate with an
inch not out of the question.
This combined with snow melt may pose
a risk for minor flooding,
but at this time this remains a small
risk given uncertainty in the track of the low.


Bold is what I've been seeing on the models CMC/GFS and hope what flooding that does happen is minimized. All that snow up north I'd like to see a slow melt by the sun.

Posted by: SnowMan11 Mar 18 2017, 09:15 PM

Euro control has snow from SNJ northward and crushes SNE

EPS has the high further south and stronger on this run compared to 0z with the low also further south.

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Mar 18 2017, 09:28 PM

Im willing to bet a good sum of money the euro op shows nothing similar to the 12z lol

Posted by: USCG AST Mar 18 2017, 09:40 PM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 18 2017, 10:15 PM) *
Euro control has snow from SNJ northward and crushes SNE

EPS has the high further south and stronger on this run compared to 0z with the low also further south.

That is my thinking here. If the PV pushes further south, the tri state area is obliterated.

Posted by: phillyfan Mar 18 2017, 09:45 PM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 18 2017, 10:28 PM) *
Im willing to bet a good sum of money the euro op shows nothing similar to the 12z lol

You can be the one who stays up for it, not a chance I will. laugh.gif

Posted by: Storms R us Mar 18 2017, 09:46 PM

QUOTE(USCG AST @ Mar 18 2017, 10:40 PM) *
That is my thinking here. If the PV pushes further south, the tri state area is obliterated.



That would be great for you all but you need more model guidance besides the EURO.

Posted by: paletitsnow63 Mar 18 2017, 09:48 PM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 18 2017, 10:28 PM) *
Im willing to bet a good sum of money the euro op shows nothing similar to the 12z lol

That is a good possibility. It did the same thing for the big storm aka Stella. It showed a monster storm at 0Z on March 4th. It then lost it for awhile before it came back to it again. EURO used to be good at sniffing out big storms in the long range before it was "tweaked". Maybe its on a roll again and it sniffed another big one out 8 to 9 days from now.

Posted by: Mike W IN herkimer Mar 18 2017, 10:29 PM

QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Mar 18 2017, 10:13 PM) *
Mike, do you actually "laugh out loud" after each post?

No, I chuckle inside...

Posted by: USCG AST Mar 18 2017, 11:04 PM

QUOTE(Storms R us @ Mar 18 2017, 10:46 PM) *
That would be great for you all but you need more model guidance besides the EURO.

All globals are hinting a bit at the potential. I just said my thinking, not a forecast. rolleyes.gif

Posted by: phillyfan Mar 18 2017, 11:39 PM

Nothing to really show on the 0z GFS run.

Posted by: shane o mac Mar 18 2017, 11:42 PM

This looks rather interesting , alot of changes incoming the next few days ..

Posted by: Mike W IN herkimer Mar 19 2017, 12:07 AM

Ggem is much warmer then 12z, even northern NY state sees very little snow..It's a squeeze play between the Bermuda high and HP north of Quebec..

Posted by: Mike W IN herkimer Mar 19 2017, 12:10 AM

QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 19 2017, 01:07 AM) *
Ggem is much warmer then 12z, even northern NY state sees very little snow..It's a squeeze play between the Bermuda high and HP north of Quebec..



Posted by: jdrenken Mar 19 2017, 01:00 AM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 18 2017, 09:15 PM) *
Euro control has snow from SNJ northward and crushes SNE

EPS has the high further south and stronger on this run compared to 0z with the low also further south.


To be fair...it is more sw. Again...blanket statements like this above help nobody without details or pictures. Seems like a broken record...

Click to animate

 

Posted by: jdrenken Mar 19 2017, 01:09 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 18 2017, 04:57 PM) *
USCGAT - I don't think your title meets guideline specs. Just thought you might like to know.

Should be more like

March26-28, 2017 MidAtl/NE Storm
Long Range Cogitation D7-10

Something more like that.


Yes...that does help. Not like it's pinned on how to create topics or nothin...

Posted by: Mike W IN herkimer Mar 19 2017, 02:03 AM

Euro is a no go for snow lovers , LP up into Maine, trailing cold front..Euro says enjoy some 60s and 70s..

Posted by: Storms R us Mar 19 2017, 05:08 AM

QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 19 2017, 03:03 AM) *
Euro is a no go for snow lovers , LP up into Maine, trailing cold front..Euro says enjoy some 60s and 70s..



If you look at the GFS/CMC you can see some rain makers still there, even that long range thing Phillyfan mentioned April 3rd is not there but that is long range and off topic, just mentioning.

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 05:27 AM

6z does show a coastal reflection with wintery precip for the interior of N MidAtl/NE


Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 05:40 AM

SO - we can't write off this potential. Not yet anyway




Posted by: MD Blue Ridge Mar 19 2017, 05:43 AM

QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 18 2017, 11:29 PM) *
No, I chuckle inside...


laugh.gif

Posted by: MP - Bucks Co PA Mar 19 2017, 07:44 AM

QUOTE(phillyfan @ Mar 18 2017, 08:32 PM) *
OT: But April 3rd (hour384 though)



Just stop it!!!! Where is spring??????

Posted by: rtcemc Mar 19 2017, 09:05 AM

Don't recall watching the Masters, while watching it snow. I open the pool in early May, and may have to delay it b/c of too much snow on the cover.... says the caged animal. That whole Christmas in July thing(6th months to the day from Christmas) may have a special feel this year, with snow piles still visible ohmy.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 09:06 AM

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
144 AM EDT SUN MAR 19 2017

VALID 12Z WED MAR 22 2017 - 12Z SUN MAR 26 2017

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES/EVALUATION...

AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CARRY A COUPLE RESPECTABLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS
EASTWARD
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. RECENT GFS RUNS WERE
QUICKER THAN THE OTHERWISE GOOD 12Z CONSENSUS (INCLUDING THE 18Z
GEFS MEAN) AND USED THAT CLUSTER (12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN) WITH
THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS AS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. BY NEXT
WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AND A BIT QUICKER WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO WHICH MAY ACT TO
PREVENT LOW PRESSURE FROM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND INSTEAD SCOOT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME MODEST
SNOW FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND THOUGH THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE ENSEMBLE SPREAD (12Z ECMWF WAS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE SPREAD WHILE THE 18Z GFS WAS MUCH QUICKER). WILL NEED A COUPLE
MORE CYCLES (AT LEAST) TO SHAKE THINGS OUT.



...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

INITIAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONVECTION MAY
BECOME SEVERE -- PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST OUTLOOKS FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER. PRECIPITATION IN THE GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR WEST
MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY (ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW) AS THE
GEFS M-CLIMATE PERCENTILES STILL SHOW > 99.5 PERCENT VALUES AND
SOME "MAX" VALUES (RELATIVE TO PAST FORECASTS). AS THAT SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND THEN PERHAPS MORE EASTERLY, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE FROM CANADA MAY HELP SUPPRESS THE SYSTEM AND SUPPORT SNOW
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
OF COURSE, SLOWER HIGH
PRESSURE OR A QUICKER STORM WOULD ALLOW THE LOW TO LIFT INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
CONVERSELY, A TRACK EVEN FARTHER SOUTH IS
POSSIBLE (SEE 12Z ECMWF). REGARDLESS, ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE
FEEDING INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT A RATHER
WIDESPREAD AREA OF AT LEAST MODEST RAINFALL THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY ALONG WITH PRE-WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND WORK EASTWARD, SPREADING MORE RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO MOST AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A
WARMUP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS.
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH SOME RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHEAST WILL SEE WELL BELOW
TEMPERATURES ON WED/THU (ABOUT 10-25F BELOW AVERAGE) BEFORE A
TREND MILDER. RECORD LOWS MAY BE POSSIBLE
.


FRACASSO

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 09:18 AM

unsure.gif


Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Mar 19 2017, 09:28 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 19 2017, 10:18 AM) *
unsure.gif


What does that mean ?

Posted by: MaineJay Mar 19 2017, 09:31 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 19 2017, 10:18 AM) *
unsure.gif




Retrograding cutoff INVOF the Canadian Maritimes?


Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 09:40 AM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 19 2017, 10:28 AM) *
What does that mean ?

Reference the East Asia Rule - which is a cousin, if you will, to the Typhoon Rule. (see OFM thread for more)

Correlation to the conditions in E Asia (this case, N Japan Perfecture) to the E US. The "lag" to our zones is approx. 6-10 days (depending on whether there is any blocking in the Pac, or if the flow is not blocked)

So we see unsettled conditions with Little Japanese Snowmen in the northern part of that region and might expect the same or similar in our region in about a week's time.

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 09:45 AM

To continue, here is a surface map 24 hr forecast for that region. Again, essentially, theory goes that a similar outcome hits the E US in about a week





Posted by: USCG AST Mar 19 2017, 09:47 AM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 19 2017, 02:09 AM) *
Yes...that does help. Not like it's pinned on how to create topics or nothin...

Yeah... No excuses, I completely messed that one up. Apologies... Thank you for correcting my mistake.

Posted by: USCG AST Mar 19 2017, 09:50 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 19 2017, 10:45 AM) *
To continue, here is a surface map 24 hr forecast for that region. Again, essentially, theory goes that a similar outcome hits the E US in about a week


Haven't seen that rule mentioned in a good while. It's normally rather correct if I remember.

Posted by: rtcemc Mar 19 2017, 10:10 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 19 2017, 10:18 AM) *
unsure.gif


But, but it's in Japanese ohmy.gif

Posted by: Storms R us Mar 19 2017, 10:13 AM

QUOTE(MP - Bucks Co PA @ Mar 19 2017, 08:44 AM) *
Just stop it!!!! Where is spring??????



That one isn't showing up anymore that has now turned into 994 L with rain.


Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 10:20 AM

QUOTE(USCG AST @ Mar 19 2017, 10:50 AM) *
Haven't seen that rule mentioned in a good while. It's normally rather correct if I remember.

Actually, we mentioned it as supporting the storm idea for 3/13-15. It was one of the reasons I cited for having increased confidence.

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 10:20 AM

QUOTE(rtcemc @ Mar 19 2017, 11:10 AM) *
But, but it's in Japanese ohmy.gif

Ah... So... laugh.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 10:22 AM

Note - OFM methods are not always on a one-to-one corollary.

They are, merely, signals of unsettled weather - not exact detail in all instances. They can, and do, match up with precip types - just not every single time.

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 10:24 AM

QUOTE(Storms R us @ Mar 19 2017, 11:13 AM) *
That one isn't showing up anymore that has now turned into 994 L with rain.

Again - that depends on where you are talking about. The forums sub region covers a lot of ground, and I showed the recent GFS with a good deal of wintry precip for the interior.

Not to mention, we should be viewing ensembles at this juncture (see WPC discussion I posted).

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 10:29 AM

UKIE does not quite reach this time frame - but when compared to the EAR you can't help see the similarity



Posted by: PoconoSnow Mar 19 2017, 10:35 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 19 2017, 11:29 AM) *
UKIE does not quite reach this time frame - but when compared to the EAR you can't help see the similarity




Cfs 00z





General look there

Two hps and a plume of moisture

Strengths tbd

Posted by: plowxpress Mar 19 2017, 10:36 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 19 2017, 10:18 AM) *
unsure.gif



Oh no, LJSM say it ain't so.......... mad.gif

Posted by: LoveNYCSnow Mar 19 2017, 11:16 AM

This will change a ton of times but given that it's the last week of March would not have high confidence for any winter precip south of Central NY

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 11:21 AM

QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Mar 19 2017, 12:16 PM) *
This will change a ton of times but given that it's the last week of March would not have high confidence for any winter precip south of Central NY

I'd at I-80 axis and up from there, still in play to see something wintry. But yes, very difficult otherwise.

Cold air is nearby, but can it get close enough and if so how deep can it get?

Even with fresh Canadian HP - even at strength, this is not mid-winter so its influence, I would expect, would be blunted.

The two systems will have to merge and deepen for a majority of the region to make out with frozen precip.

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 11:23 AM




Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 11:30 AM

This Op run, verbatim, has a much slower evolution with the S stream lagging well behind.

Allows the northern feature to escape (paints snow in N NY and NE), with the S stream system still churning.

Cold air is nearby, but not near enough.




Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 11:31 AM

Comes up into a CAD situation


Posted by: MaineJay Mar 19 2017, 11:48 AM

12z GFS is choo-choo


Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 12:11 PM

Prior to this frame, the CMC has frozen precip for the above I-80 crowd




As evidenced by this snow map (used for reference to general region only)




To include the frames following




So sad it's the CMC though


Posted by: JDClapper Mar 19 2017, 12:43 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 19 2017, 01:11 PM) *
Prior to this frame, the CMC has frozen precip for the above I-80 crowd




As evidenced by this snow map (used for reference to general region only)




To include the frames following




So sad it's the CMC though


But, the idea is the same .. cold pushing south, moisture over-running .. now, how far does the cold push.

\_(ツ)_/

Posted by: JDClapper Mar 19 2017, 12:46 PM

Our time is limited to post pretty snowmaps that irriate MDBR, so we should embrace it and post for all it's worth. smile.gif


Posted by: Ryan Duff Mar 19 2017, 01:00 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 19 2017, 12:21 PM) *
I'd at I-80 axis and up from there, still in play to see something wintry. But yes, very difficult otherwise.

Cold air is nearby, but can it get close enough and if so how deep can it get?

Even with fresh Canadian HP - even at strength, this is not mid-winter so its influence, I would expect, would be blunted.

The two systems will have to merge and deepen for a majority of the region to make out with frozen precip.



Given past climatology I generally consider Harrisburg in play through May 1st. Very minor chances, but looking at the records, April has at least a trace, if not more recorded for any given day. Out of those 30 days in April, 9 of them are recorded near-term (1970-present).

Once you hit May 2nd you drop to any recorded activity is more or less an anomaly.

Just thought I'd throw that perspective out there. wink.gif

http://www.weather.gov/ctp/climateRecordsHarrisburg

Posted by: paletitsnow63 Mar 19 2017, 01:37 PM

12Z GGEM showing strong HP to the north. For some reason TT maps weren't putting the little "L" and "H" symbols on their maps for 12Z GGEM


 

Posted by: paletitsnow63 Mar 19 2017, 01:39 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 19 2017, 01:43 PM) *
But, the idea is the same .. cold pushing south, moisture over-running .. now, how far does the cold push.

\_(ツ)_/

Similar look and setup (with not as much QPF) as 12Z ECMWF yesterday.

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 01:40 PM

Euro puts the SLP in OH at Hr168. The HP is not enough to overcome that WAA - 850's only make it as far south as MA borders with VT/NH




Now is the most progressive model, I believe

Not that these Op runs mean a whole lot at this point. Ensembles may tell different tales

Posted by: paletitsnow63 Mar 19 2017, 01:46 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 19 2017, 02:40 PM) *
Euro puts the SLP in OH at Hr168. The HP is not enough to overcome that WAA - 850's only make it as far south as MA borders with VT/NH




Now is the most progressive model, I believe

Not that these Op runs mean a whole lot at this point. Ensembles may tell different tales

UTS. Do you think the strength of the HP (in regard to cold) is being underestimated? At H192 the HP is strong enough to squash the LP to the Delmarva but still not much cold there. I'm thinking a strong HP coming down from eastern Canada (even in late March) should have more cold air with it.


 

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 01:47 PM

Now this is a bit interesting

(oop wrong imnage, give me a minute)

Transfer beneath Mason Dixon?

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 01:48 PM


Posted by: paletitsnow63 Mar 19 2017, 01:49 PM

12Z UKMET and 12Z GGEM look very similar at H144


 

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 01:52 PM

QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 19 2017, 02:46 PM) *
UTS. Do you think the strength of the HP (in regard to cold) is being underestimated? At H192 the HP is strong enough to squash the LP to the Delmarva but still not much cold there. I'm thinking a strong HP coming down from eastern Canada (even in late March) should have more cold air with it.

Been trying to figure that out. Perhaps too transient? (not anchored strongly enough?)

Or is the WAA far too strong (perhaps equally or more likely)

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 19 2017, 01:53 PM

The track is there - but the temps come with it.

So - the Euro kind of ruins everything by staying too far N, even with the last minute jump east, underneath PA.

GGEM further S (allowing more cold air in)

GFS kind of in the middle



If you're rooting for snow - better hope the Canadians have a better handle on the strength and influence of the cold air feed. (I have found that the CMC gets that part "right", more often than it does other features - but not always)

Posted by: KENNYP2339 Mar 19 2017, 02:21 PM

Hard to believe the sun light length for March 20th is the same as September 22nd, same light of day, slightly different angle.

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Mar 19 2017, 02:23 PM

Euro snowmap fwiw

 

Posted by: PoconoSnow Mar 19 2017, 02:43 PM

Tropical Tidbits now has clickable maps to get soundings just like pivotal fwiw

Just a heads up

Thanks levi


"Supported models are the GFS (entire world), HRRR, NAM3km, WRF-ARW, and WRF-NMM."

Posted by: Mike W IN herkimer Mar 19 2017, 05:40 PM

The ggem is a little too far south, the ecm to far north, let's meet in the middle!! The euro was extremely close to a big snowstorm here..

Posted by: SnowMan11 Mar 19 2017, 06:13 PM

QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 19 2017, 06:40 PM) *
The ggem is a little too far south, the ecm to far north, let's meet in the middle!! The euro was extremely close to a big snowstorm here..


Maybe the Euro will keep trending south wink.gif

Posted by: Storms R us Mar 19 2017, 07:52 PM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 19 2017, 03:23 PM) *
Euro snowmap fwiw



Big difference from what it had a couple days ago when it was showing more in PA..

Posted by: telejunkie Mar 19 2017, 09:29 PM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 19 2017, 03:23 PM) *
Euro snowmap fwiw

Lock it in...Euro long range has performed awesome this year so may as well put this in my signature now... rolleyes.gif
Seems like an odd scenario...my current take on the models is that a 'northern stream' s/w (arctic JS?) rolls through Canada dropping a cold front across the northern tier and then there is a slow moving southern stream s/w/cutoff (polar JS?) producing seemingly an overrunning event. Please someone correct me here if I'm wrong...the lack of interaction though between the streams is what seems to be off to me though....

Posted by: Mike W IN herkimer Mar 19 2017, 11:58 PM

According to kbuf we will have a warm from initially to the north of us with strong HP pushing the front south with waves of precipitation riding the boundary..

Posted by: Mike W IN herkimer Mar 20 2017, 12:12 AM

Ggem is pretty bad across the board, strong HP off the SE coast not helping matters..



Posted by: rochesterdave Mar 20 2017, 12:40 AM

QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 20 2017, 01:12 AM) *
Ggem is pretty bad across the board, strong HP off the SE coast not helping matters..



I think it all depends on the Canada high. Strength and placement. All else is secondary.

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 20 2017, 05:48 AM

6z GFS holding out hope for the N of I-80 crowd. One of the "colder" runs, recently


Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Mar 20 2017, 10:09 AM

Euro 00z

 

Posted by: MD Blue Ridge Mar 20 2017, 10:13 AM

Quite a downsize of snow output from euro. This event is 13 models years away for the euro. At this point, it couldn't have less of an idea what will happen.

Posted by: MD Blue Ridge Mar 20 2017, 10:15 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 19 2017, 01:46 PM) *
Our time is limited to post pretty snowmaps that irriate MDBR, so we should embrace it and post for all it's worth. smile.gif


Were almost done with them. Then my weather soul can be at peace for 6 months.

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 20 2017, 11:38 AM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 20 2017, 11:09 AM) *
Euro 00z

12z GFS is similar in areal coverage, but nowhere near the amounts the Euro 00z put out.


Posted by: stretchct Mar 20 2017, 01:59 PM

No pics, but text showing a colder Euro solution imby. Not a fan of >.5" qpf falling into below freezing temps.
12z

CODE
SUN 06Z 26-MAR 3.0 5.4 1027 92 53 0.04 570 549
SUN 12Z 26-MAR 1.2 3.5 1029 92 90 0.09 569 547
SUN 18Z 26-MAR 1.0 2.6 1030 97 98 0.11 569 546
MON 00Z 27-MAR 0.1 2.8 1030 96 98 0.23 570 546
MON 06Z 27-MAR -0.5 2.8 1030 96 100 0.34 568 545
MON 12Z 27-MAR -0.6 2.9 1029 85 99 0.43 568 545
MON 18Z 27-MAR 0.5 -0.3 1029 86 95 0.46 566 543
TUE 00Z 28-MAR 0.1 0.3 1028 88 85 0.13 565 543


0z
CODE
SUN 00Z 26-MAR   3.8     6.2    1023      89      58    0.00     570     552    
SUN 06Z 26-MAR   2.4     6.2    1024      93      59    0.00     569     550    
SUN 12Z 26-MAR   1.9     5.5    1025      94      71    0.01     569     549    
SUN 18Z 26-MAR   2.7     4.5    1025      90      79    0.07     568     548    
MON 00Z 27-MAR   1.1     5.2    1024      95      99    0.13     567     548    
MON 06Z 27-MAR   0.3     3.9    1023      95      89    0.22     565     547    
MON 12Z 27-MAR   0.5     2.0    1023      91      77    0.03     562     544    
MON 18Z 27-MAR   1.9    -0.1    1025      78      82    0.02     562     542

Posted by: paletitsnow63 Mar 20 2017, 02:04 PM

Tweet and picture from Ryan Maue:

"Weather forecasters really going to get a workout w/upcoming weekend winter weather in Northeast. Complete mess unfolding in models."


 

Posted by: stretchct Mar 20 2017, 02:21 PM

QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 20 2017, 03:04 PM) *
Tweet and picture from Ryan Maue:

"Weather forecasters really going to get a workout w/upcoming weekend winter weather in Northeast. Complete mess unfolding in models."


Graphically it looks so benign. That pic is when a 1008 LP is just south of Chicago. It just decays after that pic and looks like it tries to transfer, but never gets beyond a wave until well off shore. Meanwhile, NY, CT, MA and RI get doused with >2"qpf, NJ >1"while West and Central PA gets under .5". Basically a stalled front at the surface and decaying bowling ball aloft.

Most of MA, SVT, and northern most CT/RI gets 12-18" of snow. That's a hard sell.

Posted by: MD Blue Ridge Mar 20 2017, 02:34 PM

QUOTE(stretchct @ Mar 20 2017, 03:21 PM) *
Graphically it looks so benign. That pic is when a 1008 LP is just south of Chicago. It just decays after that pic and looks like it tries to transfer, but never gets beyond a wave until well off shore. Meanwhile, NY, CT, MA and RI get doused with >2"qpf, NJ >1"while West and Central PA gets under .5". Basically a stalled front at the surface and decaying bowling ball aloft.

Most of MA, SVT, and northern most CT/RI gets 12-18" of snow. That's a hard sell.


Nice post, and I certainly agree with the bolded at the moment.

Posted by: paletitsnow63 Mar 20 2017, 02:36 PM

QUOTE(stretchct @ Mar 20 2017, 03:21 PM) *
Graphically it looks so benign. That pic is when a 1008 LP is just south of Chicago. It just decays after that pic and looks like it tries to transfer, but never gets beyond a wave until well off shore. Meanwhile, NY, CT, MA and RI get doused with >2"qpf, NJ >1"while West and Central PA gets under .5". Basically a stalled front at the surface and decaying bowling ball aloft.

Most of MA, SVT, and northern most CT/RI gets 12-18" of snow. That's a hard sell.

So the way you describe it the snow maps are a little more south than 12Z yesterday and 0Z today looking at the maps PARD posted?

Posted by: paletitsnow63 Mar 20 2017, 02:38 PM

QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Mar 20 2017, 03:34 PM) *
Nice post, and I certainly agree with the bolded at the moment.

Interesting that the EURO since Saturday has been advertising a huge amount of QPF along the stalled front compared to the other models. The swath of snow pushed well north from Saturday but it is still "waffling" around.

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Mar 20 2017, 02:40 PM

Colder solution sagged a bit further south. Let's see if the trend continues, this is snow only. There's a lot of ice as well

 

Posted by: MD Blue Ridge Mar 20 2017, 02:40 PM

QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 20 2017, 03:38 PM) *
Interesting that the EURO since Saturday has been advertising a huge amount of QPF along the stalled front compared to the other models. The swath of snow pushed well north from Saturday but it is still "waffling" around.


It is, but very often I don't buy what the euro is selling. This setup doesn't scream heavy snow to me. More like a longer duration, slow accumulating event.

Anything is possible this March though. laugh.gif

Posted by: LUCC Mar 20 2017, 02:44 PM

QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 20 2017, 03:38 PM) *
Interesting that the EURO since Saturday has been advertising a huge amount of QPF along the stalled front compared to the other models. The swath of snow pushed well north from Saturday but it is still "waffling" around.

Flooding rolleyes.gif

My back yard has puddles all over and still some snow.

Posted by: telejunkie Mar 20 2017, 02:59 PM

my current thinking is that for snow to accumulate appreciably from this overrunning event, it will be confined to higher elevation zones...would guess above 1,500' currently based on the airmass in play, but maybe even higher. Not saying valley's won't see snowflakes, especially in the overnight hours, but guessing it would changeover to rain in daylight hours and maybe a slushy inch or two at best in valley's...

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 20 2017, 03:35 PM

CTP makes reference - but doesn't really explain. Perhaps they think it obvious?

As I mentioned, early in this thread - had this been Jan or Feb, this would have been a legit threat for most of the region. No such widespread potential now that in third quarter of March.

A case of too little, too late - for the MidAtl crowd for sure, for even coastal NE, perhaps.


QUOTE
Timing and location of the deep cold air and associated 1040+
sfc high over southeastern Canada will play a key role
in the
storm track of a southern stream wave that will be sheared east
from the Mid Miss Valley late Saturday...through the Ohio River
Valley...Central Appalachians and Mid Atl Coast Sunday through
Monday.

Pops for rain/showers will increase Saturday night through
Sunday night
, but capped them off in the likely range at this
point.

Shallow cold air could backdoor us from the NE later in the
weekend per the continued/consistent trend of the 12Z EC and
GEFS. This could lead to some precip type issues across
northern PA at a minimum.

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Mar 20 2017, 03:58 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 20 2017, 04:35 PM) *
CTP makes reference - but doesn't really explain. Perhaps they think it obvious?

As I mentioned, early in this thread - had this been Jan or Feb, this would have been a legit threat for most of the region. No such widespread potential now that in third quarter of March.

A case of too little, too late - for the MidAtl crowd for sure, for even coastal NE, perhaps.

The location, timing, and strength of the High pressure is everything. It will literally determine everything. It'll be interesting to see if the euro and cmc were sniffing out a snowmaker or not. They sniffed out the blizzard then lost it only to bring it back.

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 20 2017, 04:04 PM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 20 2017, 04:58 PM) *
The location, timing, and strength of the High pressure is everything. It will literally determine everything. It'll be interesting to see if the euro and cmc were sniffing out a snowmaker or not. They sniffed out the blizzard then lost it only to bring it back.

Also as I've said, the I-80 and above crowd, still in the game. The rest of the region is facing a closed window situation.

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 20 2017, 04:08 PM

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT MON MAR 20 2017

VALID 12Z THU MAR 23 2017 - 12Z MON MAR 27 2017

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES/EVALUATION...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE
STRONGEST. IT APPEARS THE ECMWF SHOULD VERIFY BETTER SINCE THE
GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER SOLUTION TO AGREE WITH
THE ECMWF. ATTENTIONS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE
A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE IS FORECAST FOR DAY 4/FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN HOLDING A SLOWER AND MORE WRAPPED-UP SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS
HAS BACKED OFF WITH ITS FAST SOLUTIONS AND TRENDED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF. THUS...THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THIS CYCLONE
SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT HEADS GENERALLY EASTWARD DURING THE
WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE ON THE SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE DECREASES AS THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN GLOBAL EACH DEVELOP A
CLOSED 500 MB CIRCULATION WITHIN THE TROUGH BUT ARE SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES APART IN ITS LOCATION. A WIDE SPREAD LED TO A
PREFERENCE FOR A BLENDED APPROACH USING LOW WEIGHTING TO EACH
SOLUTION
.

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 20 2017, 04:10 PM

Just saw the 12z Dun-cle model (CMC) - LOL. Such a terrible model - horrible - sad.

Posted by: phillyfan Mar 20 2017, 06:35 PM

GFS says the rains are coming, turning into mud season now.


Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Mar 21 2017, 06:52 AM

Well it looks like our season is coming to a close. This has been pretty consistent in the far north country. After the system I think Im going to suspend my euro subscription until next year

 

Posted by: stretchct Mar 21 2017, 07:21 AM

Still keeping an eye on this. Text from mby. Drier, and more realistic. Still borderline and during colder periods looks like some wet snow

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.38  LON =  -73.46

                                            00Z MAR21
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
SUN 00Z 26-MAR   2.9     8.2    1024      91      67    0.00     570     551    
SUN 06Z 26-MAR   2.3     6.5    1023      94      47    0.01     569     551    
SUN 12Z 26-MAR   2.4     6.4    1023      93      73    0.00     568     549    
SUN 18Z 26-MAR   2.8     5.0    1024      93      71    0.04     567     549    
MON 00Z 27-MAR   1.0     4.6    1024      95     100    0.13     567     547    
MON 06Z 27-MAR   0.4     2.2    1024      97      95    0.37     565     545    
MON 12Z 27-MAR  -1.0     0.0    1026      95      92    0.14     563     542    
MON 18Z 27-MAR   0.8    -0.6    1028      77      90    0.17     564     542    
TUE 00Z 28-MAR  -0.1    -0.9    1030      77      77    0.01     566     542


versus 12z

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.38  LON =  -73.46

                                            12Z MAR20
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
SUN 00Z 26-MAR   4.7     5.5    1025      85      60    0.00     571     550    
SUN 06Z 26-MAR   3.0     5.4    1027      92      53    0.04     570     549    
SUN 12Z 26-MAR   1.2     3.5    1029      92      90    0.09     569     547    
SUN 18Z 26-MAR   1.0     2.6    1030      97      98    0.11     569     546    
MON 00Z 27-MAR   0.1     2.8    1030      96      98    0.23     570     546    
MON 06Z 27-MAR  -0.5     2.8    1030      96     100    0.34     568     545    
MON 12Z 27-MAR  -0.6     2.9    1029      85      99    0.43     568     545    
MON 18Z 27-MAR   0.5    -0.3    1029      86      95    0.46     566     543    
TUE 00Z 28-MAR   0.1     0.3    1028      88      85    0.13     565     543


SkewT

Posted by: LUCC Mar 21 2017, 08:46 AM

QUOTE(phillyfan @ Mar 20 2017, 07:35 PM) *
GFS says the rains are coming, turning into mud season now.


When it's a rain jackpot it will hold steady. rolleyes.gif

Posted by: stilko4 Mar 21 2017, 09:37 AM

QUOTE(phillyfan @ Mar 20 2017, 07:35 PM) *
GFS says the rains are coming, turning into mud season now.


There's not much snow left on li, so it really shouldn't be any issue

Posted by: bradjl2009 Mar 21 2017, 10:50 AM

The last of my snow melted Sunday and while we have seen some minor accumulations in late March and early April plenty of times, overall anything memorable is done now. Looking at the temperature trends on the CPC and the forecasts, St. Patrick's Day might have been it for me until November. Ah well, KPIT is at 32 inches for the year, which is still better than last year and many other cities at similar latitudes at least.... dry.gif

Posted by: LUCC Mar 21 2017, 11:28 AM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 21 2017, 07:52 AM) *
Well it looks like our season is coming to a close. This has been pretty consistent in the far north country. After the system I think Im going to suspend my euro subscription until next year

Throw it out, no snow over Maine. rolleyes.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Mar 21 2017, 11:51 AM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 21 2017, 07:52 AM) *
Well it looks like our season is coming to a close. This has been pretty consistent in the far north country. After the system I think Im going to suspend my euro subscription until next year

Mayhaps it is, mayhaps it ain't.

I count nothing over until at least 4/15. I've stood in trout stream on opening day (mid month) while it's been snowing and so cold that the eyelets on the rod freeze shut.

Also the Palm Easter Sunday snowstorm of lore and legend (1970).

Posted by: phillyfan Mar 21 2017, 11:52 AM

QUOTE(stilko4 @ Mar 21 2017, 10:37 AM) *
There's not much snow left on li, so it really shouldn't be any issue

Still covered here but it's getting thin. Upper 60s on Saturday will really put a dent in what's left at that point.

Posted by: SnowMan11 Mar 21 2017, 12:11 PM

CMC and GFS has a nice snowfall for SNE northward this weekend and then more storms into April. Cold air hanging around in the northeast.



April starts off cold on the GFS with maybe some snow, especially for the interior.

Posted by: telejunkie Mar 21 2017, 12:24 PM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 21 2017, 01:11 PM) *
CMC and GFS has a nice snowfall for SNE northward this weekend and then more storms into April. Cold air hanging around in the northeast.

A) I wouldn't trust those snowmaps one bit as surface temps will be marginal at best for those below 1500'
cool.gif I don't know I would call the CMC & GFS snowmaps favorable to SNE...maybe I-90 northward, but again, think they're overdoing the snow for lower elevations

Posted by: SnowMan11 Mar 21 2017, 12:28 PM

QUOTE(telejunkie @ Mar 21 2017, 01:24 PM) *
A) I wouldn't trust those snowmaps one bit as surface temps will be marginal at best for those below 1500'
cool.gif I don't know I would call the CMC & GFS snowmaps favorable to SNE...maybe I-90 northward, but again, think they're overdoing the snow for lower elevations

Could be sleet but we still have to see how far south the cold air comes.

Posted by: KENNYP2339 Mar 21 2017, 02:22 PM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 21 2017, 01:28 PM) *
Could be sleet but we still have to see how far south the cold air comes.

I was thinking that if this setup was in November I would be saying / leaning on major ice storm.

Posted by: telejunkie Mar 21 2017, 03:20 PM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 21 2017, 01:28 PM) *
Could be sleet but we still have to see how far south the cold air comes.

NWS not mentioning any sleet in these parts...just some snow/rain mix to plain rain then back to rain/snow mix when some slightly colder air comes back south. I could be wrong...but really think surface temps are going to be above freezing for most of this event, even here in Central New England, aside from higher elevations which then you could be dealing potentially with sleet/fzr potential when 850s spike.

 

Posted by: Miller A Mar 21 2017, 04:00 PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
308 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-221915-
Sussex-Carbon-Monroe-
308 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

This http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ001&warncounty=NJC037&firewxzone=NJZ001&local_place1=2%20Miles%20NNW%20Sussex%20Airport%20NJ&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook&lat=41.2404&lon=-74.64#.WNGUO2c2zb0 is for northern New Jersey and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a chance for freezing rain and sleet Friday morning leading
to icy conditions. A wintry mix of precipitation is again possible on
Sunday night into Monday morning.



But no mention of it in my P&C

Posted by: saracenic arch Mar 21 2017, 05:40 PM

Don't let your guard down yet. Strong CAD signature on this one. Low dew points out ahead.

 

Posted by: saracenic arch Mar 21 2017, 05:59 PM

...And then there's this. laugh.gif


 

Posted by: saracenic arch Mar 21 2017, 06:17 PM

Also, 12z CMC since nobody posted it.


 

Posted by: Mike W IN herkimer Mar 21 2017, 07:03 PM

All hope lies with the Canadian rolleyes.gif The 12z euro was slightly colder as well..

Posted by: Storms R us Mar 22 2017, 05:25 AM

QUOTE(saracenic arch @ Mar 21 2017, 06:59 PM) *
...And then there's this. laugh.gif



I find it amusing when I see post like this as they seem to turn out to be mix, sleet, or mainly rain. End of March some posted snow and April 3 just to have those go to the waste side.

Posted by: MaineJay Mar 22 2017, 06:07 AM

Lol at the 6z GFS.

Getting light snow as we speak. smile.gif

Posted by: MaineJay Mar 22 2017, 06:08 AM

QUOTE(Storms R us @ Mar 22 2017, 06:25 AM) *
I find it amusing when I see post like this as they seem to turn out to be mix, sleet, or mainly rain. End of March some posted snow and April 3 just to have those go to the waste side.



It's a large sub region.

Posted by: Mike W IN herkimer Mar 22 2017, 09:12 AM

Rainy season getting a head start, we need as much rain as we can get in the early going with how unpredictable summer/tstorms can be..Per usual the models still not in agreement..

6z Gfs weekly rainfall for upstate..



Posted by: phillyfan Mar 22 2017, 11:36 AM

QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 22 2017, 10:12 AM) *
Rainy season getting a head start, we need as much rain as we can get in the early going with how unpredictable summer/tstorms can be..Per usual the models still not in agreement..

6z Gfs weekly rainfall for upstate..



Looks like a little bit of rain on Friday followed by more substantial rains Sunday-Monday and Tuesday-Wednesday. going to be quite rainy first half of next week it seems.

Posted by: Miller A Mar 22 2017, 04:51 PM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 22 2017, 07:07 AM) *
Lol at the 6z GFS.

Getting light snow as we speak. smile.gif


mad.gif

 

Posted by: stretchct Mar 23 2017, 08:39 AM

Interesting temp contrasts on the NAM hr84

Yes those are 70's in PA/NJ. Wind shift from the ENE causes the cooler temps N of NYC

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