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> March 26-28 MidAtl/NE Spring Storm, Cogitation: Long Range [8-15 Days Out] FORECAST
PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 19 2017, 02:23 PM
Post #101




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Euro snowmap fwiw
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PoconoSnow
post Mar 19 2017, 02:43 PM
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Tropical Tidbits now has clickable maps to get soundings just like pivotal fwiw

Just a heads up

Thanks levi


"Supported models are the GFS (entire world), HRRR, NAM3km, WRF-ARW, and WRF-NMM."

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Mar 19 2017, 02:45 PM


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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 19 2017, 05:40 PM
Post #103




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The ggem is a little too far south, the ecm to far north, let's meet in the middle!! The euro was extremely close to a big snowstorm here..


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current

2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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SnowMan11
post Mar 19 2017, 06:13 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 19 2017, 06:40 PM) *
The ggem is a little too far south, the ecm to far north, let's meet in the middle!! The euro was extremely close to a big snowstorm here..


Maybe the Euro will keep trending south wink.gif


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Storms R us
post Mar 19 2017, 07:52 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 19 2017, 03:23 PM) *
Euro snowmap fwiw



Big difference from what it had a couple days ago when it was showing more in PA..
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telejunkie
post Mar 19 2017, 09:29 PM
Post #106




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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 19 2017, 03:23 PM) *
Euro snowmap fwiw

Lock it in...Euro long range has performed awesome this year so may as well put this in my signature now... rolleyes.gif
Seems like an odd scenario...my current take on the models is that a 'northern stream' s/w (arctic JS?) rolls through Canada dropping a cold front across the northern tier and then there is a slow moving southern stream s/w/cutoff (polar JS?) producing seemingly an overrunning event. Please someone correct me here if I'm wrong...the lack of interaction though between the streams is what seems to be off to me though....


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Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 19 2017, 11:58 PM
Post #107




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According to kbuf we will have a warm from initially to the north of us with strong HP pushing the front south with waves of precipitation riding the boundary..


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current

2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 20 2017, 12:12 AM
Post #108




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Ggem is pretty bad across the board, strong HP off the SE coast not helping matters..


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This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Mar 20 2017, 12:12 AM


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current

2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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rochesterdave
post Mar 20 2017, 12:40 AM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 20 2017, 01:12 AM) *
Ggem is pretty bad across the board, strong HP off the SE coast not helping matters..


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I think it all depends on the Canada high. Strength and placement. All else is secondary.
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Undertakerson
post Mar 20 2017, 05:48 AM
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6z GFS holding out hope for the N of I-80 crowd. One of the "colder" runs, recently

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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 20 2017, 10:09 AM
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Euro 00z
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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 20 2017, 10:13 AM
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Quite a downsize of snow output from euro. This event is 13 models years away for the euro. At this point, it couldn't have less of an idea what will happen.


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Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 20 2017, 10:15 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 19 2017, 01:46 PM) *
Our time is limited to post pretty snowmaps that irriate MDBR, so we should embrace it and post for all it's worth. smile.gif


Were almost done with them. Then my weather soul can be at peace for 6 months.


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Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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Undertakerson
post Mar 20 2017, 11:38 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 20 2017, 11:09 AM) *
Euro 00z

12z GFS is similar in areal coverage, but nowhere near the amounts the Euro 00z put out.

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stretchct
post Mar 20 2017, 01:59 PM
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No pics, but text showing a colder Euro solution imby. Not a fan of >.5" qpf falling into below freezing temps.
12z
CODE
SUN 06Z 26-MAR 3.0 5.4 1027 92 53 0.04 570 549
SUN 12Z 26-MAR 1.2 3.5 1029 92 90 0.09 569 547
SUN 18Z 26-MAR 1.0 2.6 1030 97 98 0.11 569 546
MON 00Z 27-MAR 0.1 2.8 1030 96 98 0.23 570 546
MON 06Z 27-MAR -0.5 2.8 1030 96 100 0.34 568 545
MON 12Z 27-MAR -0.6 2.9 1029 85 99 0.43 568 545
MON 18Z 27-MAR 0.5 -0.3 1029 86 95 0.46 566 543
TUE 00Z 28-MAR 0.1 0.3 1028 88 85 0.13 565 543


0z
CODE
SUN 00Z 26-MAR   3.8     6.2    1023      89      58    0.00     570     552    
SUN 06Z 26-MAR   2.4     6.2    1024      93      59    0.00     569     550    
SUN 12Z 26-MAR   1.9     5.5    1025      94      71    0.01     569     549    
SUN 18Z 26-MAR   2.7     4.5    1025      90      79    0.07     568     548    
MON 00Z 27-MAR   1.1     5.2    1024      95      99    0.13     567     548    
MON 06Z 27-MAR   0.3     3.9    1023      95      89    0.22     565     547    
MON 12Z 27-MAR   0.5     2.0    1023      91      77    0.03     562     544    
MON 18Z 27-MAR   1.9    -0.1    1025      78      82    0.02     562     542


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First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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paletitsnow63
post Mar 20 2017, 02:04 PM
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Tweet and picture from Ryan Maue:

"Weather forecasters really going to get a workout w/upcoming weekend winter weather in Northeast. Complete mess unfolding in models."

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stretchct
post Mar 20 2017, 02:21 PM
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 20 2017, 03:04 PM) *
Tweet and picture from Ryan Maue:

"Weather forecasters really going to get a workout w/upcoming weekend winter weather in Northeast. Complete mess unfolding in models."


Graphically it looks so benign. That pic is when a 1008 LP is just south of Chicago. It just decays after that pic and looks like it tries to transfer, but never gets beyond a wave until well off shore. Meanwhile, NY, CT, MA and RI get doused with >2"qpf, NJ >1"while West and Central PA gets under .5". Basically a stalled front at the surface and decaying bowling ball aloft.

Most of MA, SVT, and northern most CT/RI gets 12-18" of snow. That's a hard sell.

This post has been edited by stretchct: Mar 20 2017, 02:27 PM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 20 2017, 02:34 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Mar 20 2017, 03:21 PM) *
Graphically it looks so benign. That pic is when a 1008 LP is just south of Chicago. It just decays after that pic and looks like it tries to transfer, but never gets beyond a wave until well off shore. Meanwhile, NY, CT, MA and RI get doused with >2"qpf, NJ >1"while West and Central PA gets under .5". Basically a stalled front at the surface and decaying bowling ball aloft.

Most of MA, SVT, and northern most CT/RI gets 12-18" of snow. That's a hard sell.


Nice post, and I certainly agree with the bolded at the moment.


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Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


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paletitsnow63
post Mar 20 2017, 02:36 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Mar 20 2017, 03:21 PM) *
Graphically it looks so benign. That pic is when a 1008 LP is just south of Chicago. It just decays after that pic and looks like it tries to transfer, but never gets beyond a wave until well off shore. Meanwhile, NY, CT, MA and RI get doused with >2"qpf, NJ >1"while West and Central PA gets under .5". Basically a stalled front at the surface and decaying bowling ball aloft.

Most of MA, SVT, and northern most CT/RI gets 12-18" of snow. That's a hard sell.

So the way you describe it the snow maps are a little more south than 12Z yesterday and 0Z today looking at the maps PARD posted?
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paletitsnow63
post Mar 20 2017, 02:38 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Mar 20 2017, 03:34 PM) *
Nice post, and I certainly agree with the bolded at the moment.

Interesting that the EURO since Saturday has been advertising a huge amount of QPF along the stalled front compared to the other models. The swath of snow pushed well north from Saturday but it is still "waffling" around.
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