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> June 10-13th MidAtl/NE heatwave, forecast, discussion, & OBS
MaineJay
post Jun 9 2017, 04:58 PM
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Everybody wanted some summer, looks like a taste.

Might have to add tomorrow, perhaps some reach heatwave criteria?

NAM


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GFS
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GYX
QUOTE
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The story to start the extended will be hot wx. In a spring that
has only featured brief incursions of warmer temps...this will
feel more like summer. Sun and Mon...ensemble guidance forecasts
mean H8 temps around 18C. This is supportive of highs around 90.
Coupled with this will be moderate SW flow...so some downslope
assisted warming is possible in the favored spots of SW and Srn
NH into York County ME. Given the Wly wind component this should
hold the sea breeze mostly at bay and allow even coastal
locations to get to near 90. Mon carries a little more
uncertainty in mid level temps...as decaying convection from the
Midwest may impact the area during the day. The wider range is
shown the the ensemble guidance...with some members as warm as
the lower 20s...or as cool at 15C. Regardless on the cool side
that would be enough for widespread mid 80s. There will be a
round of convection in the Midwest tonight before the round
models are hinting at impacting this area will form...so there
is a lot of uncertainty. For now I will hedge towards warmer
solutions...with convection impacting mainly Nrn zones and
leaving Srn zones in the 90s. With increasing dew points pooling
S of the advancing cold front we will have to keep an eye out
for potential heat advisories if we can get consecutive days
with heat index values 95 or greater.


BOX
QUOTE
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* Potential heat wave for much of area from Sunday to Tuesday
* Chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
* Much cooler Wednesday and Thursday

Overview...

Upper ridge builds along USA east coast Sunday through Tuesday.
Short wave energy erodes upper ridge Tuesday afternoon/night in
New England accompanied by surface backdoor cold front. A number
of locations across southern New England back from the south
coast may record a three day heat wave for Sunday through
Tuesday. Preliminary indications are that ridge will strengthen
offshore of the eastern sea board as an upper trough amplifies
over the Mississippi Valley late next week into the coming
weekend. This could set the stage for a deep and moist southerly
flow.

Longwave scale shows a building ridge over the central and eastern
USA during the period. The ridge shifts west midweek and brings a
northwest flow across New England. Shortwave scale also shows high
pressure building over the eastern half of the nation for the first
part of next week. A trough near Hudsons Bay digs southeast into the
Maritimes Tuesday-Wednesday. Closed low over the western USA sweeps
northeast into Canada, then east toward New England late in the
week.

Details...

Sunday-Monday-Tuesday...Moderate-High confidence.

Upper ridge along the USA coast and surface high pressure
centered to southeast of New England will result in a southwest
flow with 850 mb temperatures generally 18-19C. Dewpoints are
projected to be in the lower 60s on Sunday and the upper 60s
Monday and Tuesday. May encounter heat index values 95 to 100
degrees on Monday. May see the heat index get close to the mid
90s on Tuesday, possibly bringing a few areas close to Heat
Advisory criteria.

The air mass lacks sufficient moisture and may feature a
subsidence inversion 5 to 10 thousand feet to inhibit convection
Sunday and Monday. That subsidence inversion may begin to
breakdown and increasing moisture might, however, bring slight
chance for showers/thunderstorms Monday night along and north of
the route 2 corridor.

Anticipate scattered thunderstorms to develop ahead of sagging
cold front boundary Tuesday afternoon. There may be marginally enough
vertical shear for a few thunderstorms to be strong, although
it`s unusual climatologically to experience widespread deep
convection ahead of a backdoor cold front. Although the 12Z GFS
model is a little more aggressive with its depiction of
instability parameters, the 12Z ECMWF depicts a roughly similar
pattern.


This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jun 13 2017, 12:07 PM


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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MD Blue Ridge
post Jun 9 2017, 08:22 PM
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Yes! Bring me 80's and sunshine.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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kpk33x
post Jun 9 2017, 09:30 PM
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I wouldn't rule out some stronger storms with the BDCF if it times itself for the heat of the day up against the foothills like it did when we had the hot spell in mid May. A few severe popped up for a few hours. But it is a kind of thread the needle situation like overrunning snowstorms in the cities. The BDCF can't go through during the cool part of the day, and it can't have a larger cloud shield to temper the contrast. So the chances aren't great of severe convection, but you can't write it off either...

Otherwise, looks like a couple days of baking, but not sticking around for too long.


--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F: Oct. 16
...Frost: Oct. 25
...First sub-freezing low: Oct. 29
...Snow reported: Oct. 28

Foliage: As close to peak as we'll see here (Nov. 4)
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New England Stor...
post Jun 10 2017, 12:38 PM
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Nice and warm out time to install the a/c.


--------------------
Weather 2012-2013
Oct 28-29 Sandy Gust to 60MPH
Oct 29 Thunder storms
Dec 29 2.8 inch of snow
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jun 10 2017, 02:00 PM
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78F. Nice breeze. Bright, perfect sunshine. I love summer.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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NorEaster07
post Jun 10 2017, 02:23 PM
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1st 80s since Mid May here! LMAO. I forgot what it felt like. But today isn't bad at all because of 2 sole reasons... 3 actually..

Look at the dews!
Look at the winds!


and....





Clouds around now and then blocking the strong sun. No complaints about today.


That dry wind is making this such an awesome summer day! Will we get more days like this????


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WeatherDudeNYC
post Jun 10 2017, 05:40 PM
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Low 80's yesterday and mid to upper 80's today. These 2 days have been manageable due to low dews and some wind. Tomorrow we start the days of annoying heat with temps that might reach the upper 90's all 3 days knowing my area.

This post has been edited by WeatherDudeNYC: Jun 10 2017, 05:42 PM


--------------------
There is no such thing as boring weather.
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WEATHERFAN100
post Jun 10 2017, 09:02 PM
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Eclipsed the forecasted high temp of 85F today, topping off at 88F at the local airport before evening. It was manageable without the mugginess, but that probably won't be the case the next three days.


--------------------
-James
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risingriver
post Jun 10 2017, 09:33 PM
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Going from April to July weather.
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SnowMan11
post Jun 11 2017, 08:45 AM
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Awful night to sleep if you don't have a fan or A.C

Already 81 right now

I can't wait for cooler temps at the end of next week


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Anthony
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NorEaster07
post Jun 11 2017, 09:23 AM
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Not home. In southern NY. Rapid warming this morning. Was nice and cool to start then boom. Humid and heat.

Previous wet ground having little effect on air flow and temps with this heat wave.
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NorEaster07
post Jun 11 2017, 10:49 AM
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4 Graphics..


Today: Suddenly Hot.







Today: Remaining Hot






Heat Wave #2 of year for some





Early this week:



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MaineJay
post Jun 11 2017, 10:58 AM
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89.2° currently, hot, but the humidity isn't oppressive. Nice bit to have to work in it, there's always tomorrow.


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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phillyPete
post Jun 11 2017, 11:17 AM
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Any hints on what will happen when this heat breaks?
It's funny how sometimes that'll happen without any storms..
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jun 11 2017, 12:40 PM
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82F. Weak humidity. Beautiful day. Again, go summer!

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Jun 11 2017, 12:42 PM


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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STEVE392
post Jun 11 2017, 03:06 PM
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Even with a breeze it doesn't make it feel cool. Just hot air being blown around.
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WeatherDudeNYC
post Jun 11 2017, 05:58 PM
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Sensors reading 99 & 103 with sun reflection so I'd say we here in the Bronx reached about 95/96F today.


--------------------
There is no such thing as boring weather.
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telejunkie
post Jun 11 2017, 08:38 PM
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Uggg...not ready for this style of heat yet. Usually doesn't get like this until the dog days of July, if at all. Trying to put the kids to bed when its still in the mid 80s just plains sucks...breeze oddly seems more of a tease than anything right now.


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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MaineJay
post Jun 11 2017, 08:43 PM
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from BTV

QUOTE
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 746 PM EDT Sunday...Well... That was a hot one! 95 degrees
today in Burlington set the record for June 11 and also marks
the earliest time we`ve reached the 95 degree plateau to start a
year going back to 1884!


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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NorEaster07
post Jun 12 2017, 08:46 AM
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Warmest morning of year. Only 69 for the low.

Yesterdays Max temps

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