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> Dec. 27-30 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Forecasts and Observations
Juniorrr
post Dec 18 2015, 11:48 AM
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Seeing agreement on all models of a strong energy diving down the Rockies into Tx and ejecting. Depending on how it acts; cuttoff retrograding back?, or ejecting into the plains, we may finally get a significant wintry event. For now, cold air looks decent, adding ice to the possibility with the overrunning precip ahead of the main low.
0z Euro and 12z GFS below... Euro is slowest with the energy(bias of hanging it back into the SW or nah)

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Juniorrr
post Dec 18 2015, 12:00 PM
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System taps into deep El Nino subtropical jet, while the polar jet crosses south of the Hudson Bay for our cold air chances of injecting into the overrunning precip in the lakes... just my 2 cent mini analysis of a storm 8-10 days out smile.gif.

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Juniorrr
post Dec 18 2015, 01:53 PM
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12z Euro finally has it ejecting out into the southern plains, oh that juicy polar jet up in Canada needs to drop down sad.gif

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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 18 2015, 02:24 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Dec 18 2015, 01:53 PM) *
12z Euro finally has it ejecting out into the southern plains, oh that juicy polar jet up in Canada needs to drop down sad.gif

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This thread could turn out to be the storm correlated from the Bering bomb of 2015.

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Dec 13 2015, 10:30 AM) *


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 18 2015, 02:25 PM


--------------------
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jdrenken
post Dec 18 2015, 02:35 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Dec 18 2015, 12:53 PM) *
12z Euro finally has it ejecting out into the southern plains, oh that juicy polar jet up in Canada needs to drop down sad.gif

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Just a "tad" SE please. wink.gif

Wxbell Euro snow maps dump 13-14" in a 24hr period along I-70.


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Juniorrr
post Dec 18 2015, 04:40 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 18 2015, 02:35 PM) *
Just a "tad" SE please. wink.gif

Wxbell Euro snow maps dump 13-14" in a 24hr period along I-70.

Well according to BSR east you go... lol if only...
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Juniorrr
post Dec 18 2015, 04:44 PM
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12z Euro ensemble, almost gulf lows are yummy though i'd prefer a full on gulf low... follow the isobars as usual, for a lake cutter track

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Juniorrr
post Dec 18 2015, 05:44 PM
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18z GFS interesting solution, just doesn't go into the lakes and transfers at end of 240 hours... not sure i buy that but i do.
Looks icy along the OH River.

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tornadopimp11
post Dec 18 2015, 06:18 PM
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Best looking eye candy of the season so far for me. I know this correlates to the big Bering Sea bomb, but wake me up on Christmas Day if the models still have this thing. I'm intrigued but it's far too early to get excited about.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Dec 18 2015, 09:58 PM
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QUOTE(tornadopimp11 @ Dec 18 2015, 07:18 PM) *
Best looking eye candy of the season so far for me. I know this correlates to the big Bering Sea bomb, but wake me up on Christmas Day if the models still have this thing. I'm intrigued but it's far too early to get excited about.

I'm intrigued and have been intrigued given the BSR correlation, but I'm definitely not biting on the 12z Euro. A wound up system would fit into this seasons' pattern, but I'm going to hedge my bets against the Euro pixie dust. I am especially leery of the this system tracking further southeast than the western lakes (if even that far SE).

However, I am looking forwards to the 00z guidance and the next guidance etc, should be fun to track smile.gif


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grace
post Dec 18 2015, 11:16 PM
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I might as well post the 12z New Euro...it's parallel right now becomes the official in about 8 weeks. It's an even higher resolution believe it or not. Anyway...It's further SE than Euro current OP:

Euro OP








NEW EURO PARALLEL








Parallel might be closer to a pure correlation to BSR; however, it's not usually a 100% correlation. Pretty big difference between those two solutions....I say meet in the middle & it'll be good wink.gif

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snowlover2
post Dec 18 2015, 11:49 PM
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0z GFS cuts through IL.


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grace
post Dec 19 2015, 12:28 AM
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0z GGEM further east, BUT too warm for snow:




Good ol rain storm
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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 19 2015, 12:37 AM
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GFS has it going from Joplin to Toledo and cutting across Lake Erie




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 19 2015, 12:38 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
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jdrenken
post Dec 19 2015, 12:47 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Dec 18 2015, 11:37 PM) *
GFS has it going from Joplin to Toledo and cutting across Lake Erie




I'd love to compare the tellies of this 00z to it's earlier 12z run. Quite a bit of warm air aloft in the last one.


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Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


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snowlover2
post Dec 19 2015, 01:59 AM
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0z Euro is west of the GFS. Cuts through MO.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 19 2015, 02:07 AM
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00z Euro is impressively similar to the previous run





Per the BSR, it should trend southeast. Original thoughts per BSR was for an Apps runner. It's gotta shift quite far east at this point, but we also have 10 days for this to happen. Plenty of time.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 19 2015, 02:09 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 1 (Last: 2/15/18)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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jdrenken
post Dec 19 2015, 08:56 AM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Dec 19 2015, 12:59 AM) *
0z Euro is west of the GFS. Cuts through MO.


It's actually slower and warmer with almost the same path.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 19 2015, 09:53 AM
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06z GFS is a warm plains cutter, now it's 2015 believable

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WeatherMonger
post Dec 19 2015, 11:08 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Dec 19 2015, 08:53 AM) *
06z GFS is a warm plains cutter, now it's 2015 believable

On the bright side this should be the last warm cutter this year
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