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> Nov. 23-27 West/California 'Storm'...(Thanksgiving), Short Term(1-3 days): Forecasts and OBS...on and off trough(s)
idecline
post Nov 16 2016, 02:06 PM
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Howdy to the rest of the CONUS...here comes a whale of an extratropical storm riding the jet into the West

Attached Image

Wow! this is a very vigorous low pressure coming out of the GOA, and if the track and intensity of this storm remain on track, this will end up as a big game changer as far as pushing some moisture and intense weather into the CONUS.

Attached Image


OPC has this as a 982mb low as it approaches the West Coast...(with a lot of 'upstream' energy lurking to advance into the region next week)

QPF's
Attached Image


Disclaimer: idee's attempt at analysis is not intended as a forecast nor a 'handicapping' guide... dry.gif

QUOTE
It appears that the brunt of the storm will strike on/near the CA/OR border as the associated low remains just offshore (with some of the energy veering north to be absorbed/or recycled as the new 'wave' of energy from the Pacific comes in...

Impressions are of a vigorous storm coming in Friday night into Saturday with continued rain on Sunday.
A brief respite Monday will be followed by a perhaps more northerly focused 'wave' on Tues/Wed...


This post has been edited by idecline: Nov 21 2016, 07:46 PM


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Gnutella
post Nov 16 2016, 11:51 PM
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Good that California is finally catching up on rainfall.

Now send some of that to the Deep South to put out these wildfires.
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idecline
post Nov 17 2016, 02:18 PM
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500mb forecast by OPC...48hr

Attached Image


This shows the vigorous trough moving into the West...with a wave seemingly headed for Southern California to give an unexpected good dose of storminess and some rainfall. This 'wave' appears to be moving into the desert southwest as the week starts...bringing potential volatile weather into KS/TX/OK lower MV by midweek...the amount of warm, convective air coming in from the GOM will determine whether there will be any 'severe' weather or just frontal precipitation moving through.

Attached Image

Still on track with storm...nice interaction of warm/cold air make for a nice extratropical storm

Here is the 5 day total qpf for this storm...West Coast receives generous coastal rains with some energy shunted south and moving into the Mogollon rim area of Arizona..perhaps wrapping up as a snowstorm for lower Rockies by Tue./Wed. of next week...

Attached Image


Regardless of location...this seems like a bonus storm for all the of West Coast...with a hint of more later.

This post has been edited by idecline: Nov 17 2016, 02:19 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Nov 17 2016, 02:25 PM
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By the way...the Bay Area had its coldest night of the fall season so far last night...and the next storm has given rise to alerts of the snowfall heading for the Sierras...

QUOTE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
421 AM PST THU NOV 17 2016

CAZ013>019-063-064-066>069-180115-
SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-
BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA-NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-MOTHERLODE-
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SHASTA DAM, BURNEY, REDDING, RED BLUFF,
CHICO, OROVILLE, MARYSVILLE/YUBA CITY, SACRAMENTO,
FAIRFIELD/SUISUN, STOCKTON, MODESTO, ALDER SPRINGS, LAKEPORT,
PARADISE, GRASS VALLEY, JACKSON, CHESTER, QUINCY, AND BLUE CANYON
421 AM PST THU NOV 17 2016

...WET WEEKEND WEATHER FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

THE IMPACTS ARE: SLICK ROADS AND POSSIBLE CHAIN CONTROLS AND
TRAVEL DELAYS OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WEATHER LOOKS WET FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AS A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW TO THE REGION.

RAIN SHOULD BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BEGIN SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
DROP BELOW THE SIERRA NEVADA PASSES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE-HALF TO OVER AN INCH AND A HALF ARE
EXPECTED IN THE VALLEY...WITH 1-3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 80 AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR...WITH 1-2 FEET POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LASSEN NATIONAL PARK.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN TOPS
WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BE PREPARED FOR WINTER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND CARRY TIRE CHAINS
IF TRAVELING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS. WATCH FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.


This post has been edited by idecline: Nov 17 2016, 02:26 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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Gnutella
post Nov 18 2016, 10:24 PM
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This weather pattern reminds me of the winter of 1988-1989: Lots of rain in northern California and the Pacific Northwest, snowstorms from the northern and central Rockies into the Upper Midwest, and above-normal temperatures in the Deep South and the Northeast.
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idecline
post Nov 19 2016, 07:40 PM
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Well...the front is coming in across California...as the strong low is 'yo-yo'-ed straight up into British Columbia...a very typical occurrence as a large storm slows as it reaches the coast...then is pulled north by the Polar Jet into the GOA. The GOA acts as a sort of breeding area for large fall/winter time lows...based on their location...they determine where the storms riding the jet send their energy into the West Coast of North America...

Here is the WV loop of the storm
Attached Image

OBS: Very gusty S/SE winds started Friday afternoon...continued into morning...with scattered showers until about 10AM in San Jose area...then steady rainfall to about Noon...on and off showers now...heavier rainfall after sunset...

Here's OPC 48hr
Attached Image


The low retro's up to GOA as new energy enters scene for storm with a northerly track perhaps on Tue./Wed.

This post has been edited by idecline: Nov 19 2016, 07:51 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Nov 21 2016, 07:06 PM
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Can you say 'more'...?

Attached Image

Lots of upstream energy directed at the West Coast of Americas in the next few days...check all the storm threads getting geared up for the rest of the CONUS... blink.gif

Here comes the QPF's for next 5 days...
Attached Image


Lookout...wave after wave of energy is rolling in off the Pacific...some to follow a southerly track and some will be sent over the top and come back through Canada as cold storms into upper Mid-West and Great Lakes and New England...



--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Nov 21 2016, 07:52 PM
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How many storms are heading East?
Riding the jet stream...it looks like we are heading for a feast and a 'Turkey Trof' (sic)... laugh.gif
Attached Image

And those OPC guys...they are just 'pushin' low after low into the 'show'...
Attached Image


Looking Good! wink.gif

A week of weather in the lovely form of Qpf's...for the map enthusiasts out there...

Attached Image


West Coast 'Feast'....Attached Image

This post has been edited by idecline: Nov 21 2016, 08:01 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Nov 26 2016, 05:21 PM
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It looks the last of this series of systems is nearly through with the West Coast...moving into the interior West.
Attached Image
Cold unstable air behind front will keep a few showers around through Monday, then cool, clear days as winds will be from NW with strong upper air currents...

Disclaimer: this information below is idee's personal view blink.gif Not a forecast... dry.gif
FYI...to the east... dry.gif
This energy will combine with moisture being pulled north from the remnants of TS Otto into the Southern Plains/TX and lower MS Valley early this week...a small influx of gulf moisture will contribute to severe weather being possible Tue./Wed. as the low formed in the lee of the Rockies will be pulled north into the Great Lakes...occluding front should trigger unstable weather for a few days...

Attached Image

Lookout as next couple of Pacific waves will ride the jet north and roar back into CONUS causing 'Winter' weather... unsure.gif

West Coast weather threads signing off for the time being (as if many even read my diatribes)

#Westerlies make the weather in NA... tongue.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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