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> Long Range Spring 2017 Outlooks and Discussion, Share thoughts, forecasts, trends, excitement, anxiety here.
StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 21 2017, 01:42 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 21 2017, 01:49 PM) *
SPC has outlined a day 8 severe weather area, saying there are indications of a "significant severe weather event", and "potential for a higher-end event" next Friday. BSR/SOI/TR have all been hinting at this for a while. But it's looking like this could be the real deal in terms of potential for a big event.

As you know, CIPS has been hitting this period hard as well. Indicates ~80% of severe thunderstorms within 110 km of MBY. For days 6-8 those are very high probabilities.
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Attached File  4_21_CIPS_day_7_severe.png ( 152.34K ) Number of downloads: 5
 


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 21 2017, 01:43 PM
Post #622




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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Apr 21 2017, 02:38 PM) *
180-day precipitation anomalies paint a clear picture of the previous winters' pattern and general expectations for the next 3-6 months. The main caveat to a dry warm season across the far southeast would be tropical activity. I realize it doesn't take a sorcerer to identify there will be thunderstorms across the plains during the warm season, but the point here is I think that convection will be more active than normal across much of the region I have outlined. I may have been too generous across the LA/MS/AL/GA/TN region, but only time will tell. Locations west of the MS valley and north of the OHV should have quite a few storms this season and obviously severe thunderstorms will be above normal in these regions also (observations).

[attachment=325564:4_21_180...y_Precip.png]

[attachment=325565:4_21_180...Forecast.png]

So that this doesn't get buried

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Apr 21 2017, 01:44 PM


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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OSNW3
post Apr 22 2017, 09:44 AM
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I am working on some new products. Going global. Why be wrong in a small portion of it when I can be wrong with the whole darned thing?


Mapping based on the Recurring Rossby Wave Train


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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 23 2017, 08:58 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 16 2017, 08:52 PM) *
Latest ERTAF

Week 2: Below average, low confidence
Week 3: Average, low confidence (upgrade to above average possible)

No change

QUOTE
Week 2: Dynamical forecasts of GEFS/CFSv2/ECMWF suggest a transition period of AAM during the middle of the week 2 period. Severe weather may be lingering early in the week (especially ern CONUS), but a return to quiet conditions are forecast by the middle of week 2. Mesoscale favorability could drive this period into the A category, but we are confident at this time that AA conditions will not be met.

Week 3: Statistical/dynamical projections of activity for week three are very noisy. AAM forecasts suggest activity levels should be greater than week 2, but climatology numbers are also increasing rapidly. After week 2, May AAM forecasts are quite low. This would suggest that a climatological average to above average month is in store for 2017.


--------------------
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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
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- The Great Blizzard of 1978
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2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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jdrenken
post Apr 23 2017, 11:00 PM
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Interesting to see Ventrice join the ERTAF team.


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StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 24 2017, 02:28 PM
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The 12z Euro has no less than 3 GLC systems in the next 10 days and sets up a PV lobe in central Canada by the end of the run, which could allow the wave train to persist well into May.

If only this pattern would have occurred during February ... Here's to hoping that it sticks around until next winter.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Apr 24 2017, 02:29 PM


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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OSNW3
post Apr 24 2017, 03:34 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Apr 20 2017, 12:11 PM) *
Finding harmony within the chaos.

RRWT 21-25d Lifted Index anomaly along side the WSI SWI and GFS LI outlooks. Valid ~4/28.



The WSI SWI is honing in on the RRWT 21-25d R+1, rA (I:4/5, V:4/26-30) solution of most volatile area.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/856497960242335751

Climo for the win.

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Apr 24 2017, 03:36 PM


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snowsux
post Yesterday, 10:52 PM
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What an utterly pathetic failure across the board regarding how this week is turning out vs. what was predicted a few days ago. Advertised as a dry, hot week. Reality: Rain every *bleep*ing day and mostly typical temps.
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NorEaster07
post Today, 05:23 AM
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6 frustrating images. Frustrating because today makes 7 of last 8 days with overcast/clouds/showery/rainy days.

Focusing in the East/Northeast.


From GFS00z.



This morning.. Storm off Delaware coast. Clouds and Rain around today again..





Thursday evening 27th. Front comes across with more clouds and rain





Saturday April 29th. Convective stuff with clouds and showers around.





Monday May 1st. Another front with clouds and rain





Friday May 5th. Big storm with more clouds and rain.





Saturday May 6th. Small storm with clouds and rain.




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NorEaster07
post Today, 05:23 AM
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But wait... there's more.. lol

Monday May 8th. Storm and front with more clouds and rain.





Thursday May 11th. Another storm with more clouds and rain.



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NorEaster07
post Today, 05:26 AM
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Haven't posted pics in a while... For those wondering... Still not leafed out here. Grass is lush thick and very green. Ground is saturated from over 4" of rain this month and lack of sun to dry things out.

Using wood stove inside for heat since day time struggling past 50s.

Some pics from Monday 24th




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Undertakerson
post Today, 05:53 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 26 2017, 06:26 AM) *
Haven't posted pics in a while... For those wondering... Still not leafed out here. Grass is lush thick and very green. Ground is saturated from over 4" of rain this month and lack of sun to dry things out.

Using wood stove inside for heat since day time struggling past 50s.

Some pics from Monday 24th



I posted in the OFM thread, that the first half of May sure looks unsettled to my "still learning" eyes.

TR and BSR both contain this signal, unless I am becoming worse, (not better) in figuring out those signals.

Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 275.22K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  P_96hr500.gif ( 248.65K ) Number of downloads: 0
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 11:46 AM
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No complaints here. Active pattern and generally warmer than average temps.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Today, 11:49 AM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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