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> Jan. 3-4 Southeast Winter Storm, Forecasts, Discussion & OBS
ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 1 2018, 03:54 PM
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Opening this thread for either a run of the mill cold winter storm, albeit still respectable (global models) or potentially historic storm in the making (short range models)

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Jan 1 2018, 03:54 PM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 1 2018, 03:58 PM
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its too late in the game to disregard models, I was a believer in the Texas storm when everyone else had jumped on that climatology band wagon, so I think this has a real shot at verifying in this kind of setup, its all about if precip can make it far enough west
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 1 2018, 04:06 PM
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this is an extreme problem given people would need much more time to prepare down there than up here and yet you can't induce panic on something that's 50/50 (short range models vs. globals) I mean your talking the different between literally T-1'' against 6''+

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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 1 2018, 04:37 PM
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18z RGEM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 1 2018, 04:39 PM
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18z NAM ice
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 1 2018, 04:47 PM
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the GFS is again staying offshore, but you can see that temps are NOT the issue
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Solstice
post Jan 1 2018, 04:56 PM
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I suggest keeping the OBS thread as one... would be kinda awkward otherwise.
NAM is kinda hard to believe with those totals...


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Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 1 2018, 05:00 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jan 1 2018, 04:56 PM) *
I suggest keeping the OBS thread as one... would be kinda awkward otherwise.
NAM is kinda hard to believe with those totals...


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I'll keep em separate, different region, someone wanting to check in on FL/GA/SC coastal weather should have their own thread due to being in the southeast vs the mid atl

Yea most of that falls as ice, but not all

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Solstice
post Jan 1 2018, 05:05 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 1 2018, 05:00 PM) *
I'll keep em separate, different region, someone wanting to check in on FL/GA/SC coastal weather should have their own thread due to being in the southeast vs the mid atl

Yea most of that falls as ice, but not all


Hmm true. That ice is nasty, especially for the South


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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HuntJumpSC
post Jan 1 2018, 05:11 PM
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Woot! Woot! Keeping fingers crossed! If it's going to be this darn cold in coastal SC, then at least give the natives an excuse to go get their bread and milk! cool.gif Oh, yeah and PS~ GO CLEMSON!
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AmyRenee
post Jan 1 2018, 05:15 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 1 2018, 05:00 PM) *
I'll keep em separate, different region, someone wanting to check in on FL/GA/SC coastal weather should have their own thread due to being in the southeast vs the mid atl

Yea most of that falls as ice, but not all


Do you all think this will trend further north west putting the Piedmont of NC/ southside Va. in the heavier snow??
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 1 2018, 05:25 PM
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QUOTE(AmyRenee @ Jan 1 2018, 05:15 PM) *
Do you all think this will trend further north west putting the Piedmont of NC/ southside Va. in the heavier snow??

seeing the difference between the global models and short range models right now has me up in arms. Considering your talking 30-40 hours before this starts in FL/GA
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AmyRenee
post Jan 1 2018, 07:20 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 1 2018, 05:25 PM) *
seeing the difference between the global models and short range models right now has me up in arms. Considering your talking 30-40 hours before this starts in FL/GA

Thank you for the reply. I sure hope it tracks further west.smile.gif There is not many southern people on here are there?😀
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Kohler7
post Jan 1 2018, 08:31 PM
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Do the Carolina's count as Mid-atlantic or southeast on this forum because we get winter weather more often then the southeast, especially in the mountains, no one ever brings it up. Or atleast it doesn't seem like it.
Kinda mad about getting ripped off here in the triad. Typical :/
Hoping it moves west or builds up more.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 1 2018, 09:05 PM
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QUOTE(Kohler7 @ Jan 1 2018, 08:31 PM) *
Do the Carolina's count as Mid-atlantic or southeast on this forum because we get winter weather more often then the southeast, especially in the mountains, no one ever brings it up. Or atleast it doesn't seem like it.
Kinda mad about getting ripped off here in the triad. Typical :/
Hoping it moves west or builds up more.

there seems to be some Carolina's posters in the midatl thread, its just realllllly crowded in there
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 1 2018, 09:33 PM
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00z NAM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 1 2018, 09:43 PM
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3km
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 2 2018, 12:18 AM
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the GFS snuck a little bit more precip further west, the RGEM held ground. Looks the NWS' have started tweaking coastal forecasts a little more frozen. I looks for a big chunk of watches/warnings to come out by AM
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AmyRenee
post Jan 2 2018, 05:54 AM
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QUOTE(Kohler7 @ Jan 1 2018, 08:31 PM) *
Do the Carolina's count as Mid-atlantic or southeast on this forum because we get winter weather more often then the southeast, especially in the mountains, no one ever brings it up. Or atleast it doesn't seem like it.
Kinda mad about getting ripped off here in the triad. Typical :/
Hoping it moves west or builds up more.

I have been following the mid Atlantic thread because it has much more discussion.smile.gif I was really hoping for a huge western shift too. sad.gif
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MaineJay
post Jan 2 2018, 06:47 AM
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QUOTE(Kohler7 @ Jan 1 2018, 08:31 PM) *
Do the Carolina's count as Mid-atlantic or southeast on this forum because we get winter weather more often then the southeast, especially in the mountains, no one ever brings it up. Or atleast it doesn't seem like it.
Kinda mad about getting ripped off here in the triad. Typical :/
Hoping it moves west or builds up more.



I personally consider NC, especially inland, user of the mid Atlantic, but I separate largely on climatology. I'd consider most of coastal NC more like the southeast. smile.gif


Without a ton of GOMEX moisture, I imagine the eastern slopes would struggle in this set up. Low too far east creating downsloping on the backside. But I could see this hug the coast a bit more down there, SSTs are quite warm.

And maybe the tropical wave can push a coastal front more NW?

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I'll try to add in here if I can be helpful at all, I know we are scarce on members for this area.

Hat tip to OB45 for starting the thread.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jan 2 2018, 06:47 AM


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